Robot futures: science fiction and futures studies methodologies in action

What would constitute a robot identity? Would a robot developing an identity be consciousness of the processes that could/would shape its identity? This essay explores these questions by considering images common to both, futures studies and science fiction—in particular, the now famous anti-capitalist demonstrations in Seattle in November 1999.     

Reductionism or layered complexity? The futures of futures studies

Futures studies is likely to evolve through changes in five areas. They are: (1) forecasting to anticipatory action learning; (2) reductionist to complex; (3) horizontal to vertical; (4) from short-term empiricist research to the return of long-term history, including grand narratives; and (5) scenario development to moral futures.     

The chronospace: A proposed methodology for futures studies

In a recent article in Futures, ¹ eclectics was presented as the first part of a methodology of futures studies. In this second article, time is introduced as a variable and expressed in a diagram entitled the chronospace. Time is treated both as a subjective perception and as a vehicle for causality. The passage of time is perceived as a “scenario”, the content of which must vary with the scenario writer and the medium used. The perceived symmetry between historical and futures studies leads the author to propose the construction of a new science of time—chronosophy —to use with eclectics as an operational methodology for futures studies.     

Rethinking futures studies

The author traces the development of futures studies from the Second World war and considers its philosophical basis. Futures thinking is seen as vision; futurists have special responsibilities as they are part of the world they describe. Futures thinking is seen as a learning process.     

The eclectics paradigm: A proposed methodology for futures studies

Eclectics is an attempt to model the present in an interdisciplinary fashion. The starting-point is an extended philosophical notion of scarcity, the analysis of which leads to certain basic theorems of choice. These theorems are then applied to quaternary, ie abstract, commodities not usually treated in economics, eg nationalism, achievement, prestige. The approach involves the definition of content from fields such as psychology, sociology, anthropology, political science; and the choice of method from economics (which is seen here as identical to the theory of choice). The advantage of eclectics is that it provides for the rigorous treatment of “non-economic” variables (and therefore humanises the economist) while at the same time exporting choice theory to other social scientists (thereby formalising what have hitherto been imprecise techniques).     

Intellectual leaders in futures studies: A survey

This report presents the findings of a survey conducted recently with the aim of discovering which writers and thinkers are generally regarded as the intellectual leaders in futures studies. It is intended that such information may help in locating sources of significant new ideas about the future.     

Swedish futures studies in transition

In 1984 the Swedish government appointed a parliamentary committee to examine the future of the Swedish Secretariat for Futures Studies. This article describes the intellectual and institutional background against which the Secretariat was set up and how it evolved in the 1970s and early 1980s. It finally presents the committee's recommendations and the new organization for futures studies emerging out of its proposal.     

Evolution of futures studies

This article discusses the evolution of futures studies. The article starts with an evaluation of the different rival taxonomies and definitions for futures studies, and proceeds to discuss the very concept of paradigm. Are there paradigms in this discipline? If we think there are, what kind of arguments can we use to define those? I argue that there have been two paradigms in the evolution of futures studies so far, and there are signs of emergence of a new one. Both of the existing paradigms have had many rival macro-level methodological approaches, ontological and epistemological branches, and phases of evolution. The first paradigm is the age-old prediction tradition that combines thinking about the future into mystic explanations. This line of thinking bases its argument on the deterministic future and effects of the world of spirits. The second paradigm was basically started in the U.S. military after World War II. This modern line of thinking bases its argument on indeterministic futures, probabilities, aim to control and plan, modelling and systems thinking, and the effects of external trends. The new emerging paradigm may base its line of thinking on disconnecting from the western control based technical thinking, and accepting internal dynamic fluctuations, paradoxes and dialectic thinking.     

Macrohistory and futures studies

Through its delineation of the patterns of history, macrohistory gives a structure to the fanciful visions of futurists. Macrohistory gives us the weight of history, balancing the pull of the image of the future. Yet, like futures studies, it seeks to transform past, present and future, not merely reflect upon social space and time. Drawing from the book Macrohistory and Macrohistorians [Galtung, J. and Inayatullah, S. (eds), Praeger, New York, 1997], this article links macrohistory with futures studies. It takes the views of over 20 macrohistorians and asks what they offer to the study of alternative futures.     

Values in futures studies and long-term planning: Two Swedish case studies

The past few years' debate on the devolution of decision making in Swedish urban communities has increased the importance of examining values among planners and the eventual subjects of the plans. This article presents two case studies which show that the discrepancy in values not only complicates the planning process but also raises the need for further research in developing new techniques in delineating individual values.     

From change to progress: critical spirituality and the futures of futures studies

This paper argues that for futures studies (FS) to have a future that is relevant to current shifts in meaning and consciousness, then it must incorporate into its methods and practices a sense of mystery founded on a critically spiritual sensibility. Critical spirituality redefines rationality and empiricism by including within their framework both the somatic and the meditative as valid and necessary components of any research activity. In the short term this means a shift away from the current Western obsession with change and a stepping back to allow for critical distance in order to understand that it is in the appreciation of progress — a fundamental shift in consciousness to include the spiritual dimensions of human experience — that discourse will emerge to take FS to the heart of civilisational renewal. In allowing for mystery, silence and the meditative empiricism required to access these categories, critical spirituality lessens the gap between thought and action and thus enables truly transformative academic practice to emerge.The idea of progress has been central to the unfolding of the modernist project over the previous century. Yet as the century drew to a close it became increasingly hard to keep faith with the idea in the face of growing disillusionment and the obvious failure of modernism to deliver what people most wanted: happiness born of personal fulfillment. A growing range of voices in the critical futures field have been questioning the assumption that change in material terms equates with progress.These voices fall into four main areas.

• Post modernist and post structuralist thinkers;

• Feminists empowering postmodern discourse with value laden analyses of power;

• Post colonial thinkers with a debt to neo-Marxist and critical theorists;

• Neo-humanist thinkers with an investment in all three of the above, who work from a critically spiritual perspective.

In this paper I am going to argue that a Neo-humanist vision of the futures of Futures Studies is one which will fully engage the human potential by activating a critically spiritual methodology. This is important as many of the tools of futures work are actually intended for use in anticipating and managing change (uncritically) but have little relevance when considering the nature of progress. Those methods and techniques which engage with the less analytic more visionary process of futures are much more relevant to progress because they actively involve the individuals in the act of ‘futures building’ as opposed to ‘futures scanning’.‘Progress’ here is used to mean fundamental change in the consciousness of both the individual and collective mind. It is essentially spiritual and has no clear temporal or spacial restrictions being timeless, or as Joanna Macy would have it, anchored in “deep time” [1]. Change, on the other hand, is very much associated with technical and material movement, having no connection with the inner fabric of the human psyche. There is no appreciation of spirit here, though great attention is paid to gross national product and the latest technical innovation to hit the market.Futures Studies has the potential to be responsive to future human dilemmas. But to be so it will need to make the effort to embrace tools and concepts that lie beyond the narrow pall of academic rationality as it is currently constituted. A greater space is already emerging within the field that not only tolerates but promotes imaginative and creative processes that break down the intellectual prudery of those who are attached to their own discipline and have little capacity to envision beyond narrow and self imposed confines. Thus we find music and song, poetry and story, art and theatre effective vehicles for work on deeper forms of consciousness. Visioning and imaging workshops such as those run by Joanna Macy, Elise Boulding, John Seed and Warren Ziegler (to name but a few) are growing in power and sophistication. Meditation and other reflective practices — the spiritual quest — seeking to plumb the depth of the human soul become relevant when seen within a broadened definition of rationality and research.Clearly futurists need to be able to assess and describe likely changes in the short, medium and long term but their central goal should be to facilitate areas of human endeavor which can benefit from a closer linkage between action, the consciousness that informs and directs the action and the spirit that underwrites the consciousness. Equally clear is the fact that not all futures trends are as relevant to this deeper layer of operation within Futures Studies.     

Action oriented futures studies in Hungary

The significant social changes and unstable social-economic processes we are undergoing require more participation and more future oriented grassroots activity both in designing the possible future alternatives and in the actions for the realization of them. Action oriented futures studies and participatory futures studies are in close connection, because orientation towards actions and participation of non-professionals can be strengthened by their mutual interdependence in futures work. This study gives—as examples—summaries of four Hungarian case studies using participatory futures methods: one case from the field of vocational training, two cases concerning regional development, and one about national social-economic development. Our experience shows that such selected groups have evaluated the present issues in their environments as well as the closer and broader regional issues in authentic ways. The future alternatives that were outlined regarding the future of vocational training, acceptable future alternatives of domestic social-economic development, and future living conditions of a smaller settlement and in a larger town, reflected obligation, responsibility and personal interest. That non-professionals lack sufficient future orientation, and do not see possibilities to take serious actions for the future is a read problem. Fortunately, it seems that the future and action oriented attitude of the individuals might be further developed by the use of partnership education.     

The nature and value of futures studies or do futures have a future?

The paper discusses the necessity for futures studies and argues the need for methods giving explicable understandings of future possibilities so that decisions and policies can be as future-proof as possible. A taxonomy for futures methodologies based on their passive, preventive or anticipatory characteristics is proposed. The anticipatory methodologies are further categorised into subjective and numerical approaches. The paper goes on to review some of the principal numerical approaches such as system dynamics and econometric methods. The subjective approaches, such as the extended scenario, Delphi and Field Anomaly Relaxation are considered and it is concluded that, in general, they, and especially Field Anomaly Relaxation, are the more fruitful line of attack on the futures problem. Some directions for further research are suggested.     

New challenges for futures studies

Challenges coming from futures studies to other disciplines because of the rapidity and inter-relatedness of changes for which no discipline on its own can face the different correlated and global challenges, will be examined mainly in relation to social sciences. social sciences on the other hand reflect the need to overcome fragmentation within each discipline and between the various social sciences, in an effort at least of interdisciplinarity to face the growing uncertainty in decision making at every level: local, national and international. Social sciences are also slowly realising that a future oriented perspective is needed to empower analysis and actually reflect society in its continuous dynamicity. Citizens need the possibility to live within the rapidity of changes in the Information Society through the availability of futures studies in different forms as well as social analysis that is dynamic and interdisciplinary. The special link between society and ecological issues in a future oriented perspective will be the specific area to express the relevancy of the correlation between futures studies and social sciences.