决策科学:过去、现在与将来

现代决策科学，是自然科学与管理科学相互渗透、相互融合而产生的一门归一化的科学。自然科学驾驭着自然，管理科学驾驭着社会，两者紧密结合起来，就产生了重大的变革。这场变革的结果，使我们获得更加科学的决策，以适应社会的需要，实现对未来更为有效的控制。     

Wendell Bell and the sociology of the future: Challenges past, present and future

As a sociologist dealing with futures studies, Wendell Bell encountered considerable obstacles because his topic - the future, imagined, projected and shaped - poses significant problems for contemporary sociology. The paper discusses Bell's engagement with these disciplinary difficulties and his search for conceptual and methodological solutions. The paper anchors Bell's achievements in a wider historical context, identifies some of the new challenges facing sociology and considers some openings for change in our knowledge practice.     

Wendell Bell, The Democratic Revolution in the West Indies: Some reflections on the past, present, and future

The article looks at Professor Bell's early and seminal work in the West Indies and his attempt to interrogate the process of what he (Bell) labels as The Democratic Revolution in the West Indies. Bell, it is argued, uses theoretical paradigms of the social sciences to analyze how ideas from the enlightenment of the eighteenth century, to wit the process of spreading equality (writ large), and egalitarianism, can be effectuated in the new and small nation-states of the West Indies. It is argued, that this mode of inquiry was indeed the early beginning of, and laid the foundations for, Bell's futurist studies and pursuits currently, and, that by examining the findings, it can be seen if they are now borne out for these countries and, if not, the prospects for any recovery in the future. Finally, the author contends that, although the Democratic Revolution has been somewhat stymied, the earlier thrust for, and focus on, increased education has had the unintended effect of motivating fleeing migratory nationals and their progeny, to seek and demonstrate their equality through education in the core host democracies.     

Residual income past and future

This article considers the strengths and weaknesses of value-based management approaches based upon the residual income (RI) concept as the basis for incentive-based reward systems. The objective of these systems is to encourage optimal corporate investment selection by divisional managers and to encourage them to act as if they were independent owners of their divisions sharing a proportion of all losses and all profits. Part 1 of the article considers these systems in the light of the earlier RI debate in the 1960s and 1970s which raised a number of problems applicable to today's value-based systems. It also considers recent attempts to solve, perhaps, the major problem generated in the earlier debate—how to ensure that a single period RI is congruent with project net present value. Part 2 of the article provides a brief survey of current research into incentive systems based on RI. It then presents a possible programme of further research emphasising relevant research in finance theory.     

Predictions, past and present: World and Caribbean tourism

This paper argues that, given the complexity of the variables involved in tourism itself and the vast array of factors in the broader environment that can affect tourism, it is daring for anyone to try to predict the future of tourism, particularly on a regional scale, such as for the Caribbean. The paper begins with Burkart and Medlik's 1974 predictions about the future of global tourism, one of the first attempts to do so [A.J. Burkart, S. Medlik, Tourism: Past, Present, and Future, Heinemann, London, 1974]. When each of their predictions is evaluated in the current context, it is proposed that just over half of their predictions have come true. Given the vast number of knowns and unknowns affecting global tourism, their attempt was quite bold and instructive. A set of predictions concerning the future of Caribbean tourism is then presented, in an effort to demonstrate that predicting the future of tourism is akin to predicting the future of a “mess.”     

Tanzanian women confront the past and the future

The example of women in Tanzania is taken to illustrate their place in African society over time and their response to conditions which confront them today. Underdevelopment of the national economy and the class formation were inherited from the precolonial and colonial periods and are perpetuated by dependence on external forces. These have enhanced and continue to enhance restrictions for women. Full-scale capital accumulation in the hands of the people and a programme of rural industrialisation will provide the only kind of institutional framework within which the emancipation of women will be possible.     

European management: Steering the future towards the present

This article examines European management methods. While acknowledging that particular countries' cultural bedrock should be taken into account in attempting to change management style, the transformation of the economic, social and cultural contexts represented by the single European market may enable the future to be a guiding support in contributing to modifying firms' and public authorities' systems of relations and organization.     

Comparison of farmers’ mental models of the present and the future: A case study of pesticide use

Farmers in developing countries will in the future be confronted with major changes. The ability to cope with these challenges rests on their capability to relate future problems to current behavior. Our approach investigates this capability and consists in comparing mental models of the present and future. The approach moreover enables us to explore whether and how farmers are able to imagine a future differing from the perceived present.Data from previous studies investigating present and future pesticide application were used. In the datasets the mental models of farmers’ livelihood were structured into livelihood capitals (human, health, natural and financial capital), causal relations among the livelihood capitals were derived, and present and future causal relations were compared.The comparison of these causal relations led to six cases, each representing a different degree of dependence of future on present causal relations. The dependence was found to vary among farmers and analyzed livelihood capital. Three types of farmers with differing dependence patterns were identified.The differences found lead to new insights for policy recommendations, depending on farmers focus in their causal relations. We therefore expect that interventions focusing either more on the causes or effects of causal relations will result in a better uptake of knowledge by farmers.     

Capital in banking: Past,present and future

Earlier versions of this paper were presented at a Conference on Capitalizing for the 90s in Washington, D.C., March 20, 1991, at the Western Economic Association meetings in Seattle, July 1, 1991 and at a seminar at the American Enterprise Institute on July 16, 1991.     

Sovereign wealth funds: Past,present and future

In this article, we conduct a meta-literature review of sovereign wealth funds (SWFs), covering 184 articles from 2005 to 2019. Our meta-literature review consists of qualitative analysis of content using the NVivo software program and quantitative analyses of bibliometric citations using the HistCite and VOSviewer software programs. We identify three main research streams: (i) the overview and growth of SWFs, (ii) governance and political concerns regarding SWFs, and (iii) the investment strategies of SWFs. We identify the most influential aspects of the SWF literature, such as the leading countries, institutions, journals, authors, and articles. Finally, we propose 20 research questions based on the meta-literature review of sovereign wealth funds to set the future research agenda.     

Managed disability--past, present and future

This article discusses the overall development of managed disability. First, it explores historical factors that have influenced managed disability programs, followed by important considerations in current programs, and finally discusses future issues to contemplate for successful evolution to occur. The authors conclude by pointing out the opportunity for insurers to develop innovative and responsive products and the opportunity for employers to have a direct impact on reshaping disability benefit programs.     

Money transfer,present and future

This article presents information on the range of payment situations that currently exist, and on how payments are made within each type. Despite common beliefs to the contrary, the overall picture is unlikely to change greatly over the next ten years; for instance, cash and cheques are likely to continue dominating many areas, although Electronic Funds Transfer will expand rapidly in some specific instances.     

贷款13．23亿支持保护中国文化遗产

在过去18年里,世界银行在中国支持了12个与文化遗产保护有关的项目,贷款总额约13．23亿美元。世行新报告《保护过去,为未来奠定基础》概要介绍了这些项目采纳的方式方法,梳理归纳了经验教训,明确了未来的方向以及面临的挑战。     

Accounting information systems research over the past decade: Past and future trends

This article reviews the extant accounting information systems (AIS) literature by conducting an analysis of AIS articles published in 18 leading accounting, management information systems, and computer science journals from 1999 to 2009 with a view to identifying whether or not the focus of AIS research has changed, and if so how it has changed, since the Poston and Grabski’s (2000) review of AIS research from 1982 to 1998. We also report our insights into where AIS research is likely to be heading in the future. We analyse each of the 395 articles identified as reporting AIS research to identify their underlying theory, research method and research topic. Our results confirm the continuing decline in analytical and model‐building research in AIS‐related research and this decline is associated with a similar decline in the use of computer science theory to motivate this research. We also find that two theoretical platforms, in particular, now account for almost half (48 per cent) of all AIS research: cognitive psychology and economics. Experimental research methods and archival studies continue to grow as the preferred methods for testing the AIS‐related theories derived from these theory domains.