Future of Turkey-EU relations: a civilisational discourse

Should or can Turkey join the European Union (EU)? This paper argues that there are three alternative scenarios of the EU decision to grant membership to Turkey: ‘privileged relationship offer,’ ‘wait and see attitude,’ and ‘start of full membership negotiations.’ It then gauges each alternative path, and argues that the most likely scenario is a decision to start the negotiations, followed by the scenario of ‘wait and see.’ The EU decision will be conditioned by its future vision of global governance and the role foreseen for Turkey inside, outside or at the margin of it. The paper concludes that the EU decision will have significant implications for the future of relations between Europe and Turkey on the one hand, and Europe and the Islamic world on the other.     

The future of Turkey in the European Union

Turkey's future in the European Union (EU) is a subject of intense debate both in Europe and in Turkey today. Although Turkey first applied to join the EU 45 years ago, it is the only candidate country, which has not yet started accession negotiations. On the one hand, any future enlargement that includes Turkey is a controversial topic for the EU, since Turkey would be the only Muslim member in the EU, which has accepted 10 new members in May 2004. On the other hand, it is too late to exclude Turkey from the future of the EU since it has put the issue of the EU accession at the top of its national agenda and is the only candidate country that has completed the Customs Union with the EU. This article aims to explore future scenarios regarding Turkey's inclusion to or exclusion from the EU and assess their short and long term implications.     

Scenarios on European energy security: Outcomes of natural gas strategy in 2020

This paper adopts a futuristic methodology and analyzes the role of natural gas in European energy security in order to transform economic and policy uncertainties into meaningful scenarios. It implements “trend analysis” to forecast the volume of gas needed until 2020 by elaborating the estimates of the EU Commission and “scenario building” to come up with alternative futures forging different regional implications. The economic analysis stems from four scenarios as introduced by the EU Commission: (1) baseline scenario with average oil price of 61$/bbl; (2) baseline scenario with average oil price of 100$/bbl; (3) New Energy Policy scenario with average oil price of 61$/bbl; (4) New Energy Policy scenario with average oil price of 100$/bbl. The policy analysis is derived from the options, restraints, priorities and strategies of the concerned actors which include the EU Commission, selected EU members, suppliers and transit countries. The analysis on actors results in four policy scenarios: (1) Russia first; (2) Russia everywhere; (3) security first; (4) each for itself. The matrix, which excludes the possibility of unprecedented developments such as a drastic increase in European shale gas production or continuing global recession, clusters 16 contingencies. The paper, within this context, gives an idea on how alternative policy options of European energy security may lead to different futures based on oil prices, environmental commitments and strategic initiatives of the concerned actors.     

Future generations thinking

Future generations thinking provides a non-Western reading of space, time, nature and self, contrasting itself with the liberal openness of much of futures studies by asserting a non-negotiatable core. This includes a commitment to the family as a basic unit of analysis; inclusion of all sentient beings; belief in the repeatability of time; an inter-generational approach balancing ancestors and future generations; sustainable social and economic practices; a global focus; a spiritual and collective view towards choice and rationality; and the realization of a global ethics beyond postmodernity. In practice, however, future generations thinking often falls short of its claims. Nevertheless, if future generations thinking can become authentically multi-civilizational, it could create a new history for future generations.     

Scenarios on the spatial and economic development of Europe

Countless autonomous, self-reinforcing and countervailing forces impact the future competitiveness of Europe and its spatial structure. Poignant examples include globalization, ageing and climate change, but also policy decisions taken by nation-states or the European Union. Scenarios are an appropriate method by which to explore possible future developmental pathways in a dynamic context. This contribution describes and discusses four economic policy scenarios produced by the ESPON 3.2 project and link these to the Lisbon Strategy and the European Social Model. In each scenario, a policy package is assembled from existing EU policy areas according to a particular ideological context. Afterwards, its territorial consequences are discussed in terms of socioeconomic disparities, migration and the environment. In so doing, some observations will be made regarding possible spin-offs, trade-offs and side effects of European policy when placed in a spatial context. These scenarios should hold interest for policy discussions on territorial cohesion, a concept which seeks to integrate economic development and spatial planning, as well as on European competitiveness and cohesion.     

Public discourse and cosmopolitan political identity: Imagining the European Union citizen

European Union citizenship has thus far been constructed largely in national and economic terms, which are unlikely to redeem the promise of a rich and vibrant political future in the wake of the EU constitution. Therefore, one of the central challenges facing scholars, political leaders and citizens is to fashion new argumentative spaces that enable citizens to forge cosmopolitan political identities that may help to fulfill the vision of alternative futures. This paper addresses the rhetorical dimensions of European Union citizenship as it focuses on public discourse as constitutive of new models of political participation and engagement. Tracing the idea of citizenship in the writings of Hannah Arendt, Immanuel Kant, and Giambattista Vico, discourse and imagination become necessary for a new dimension of European Union citizenship.¹     

International Outsourcing of Services: What Role for Central and East European Countries?

Central and East European countries (CEECs) that have recently acceded to the European Union are increasingly emerging on the map of global companies as possible locations for outsourcing services. Starting from the assumption of labor cost differentials in favor of the CEECs, the paper explores the CEECs' capacity and potential to supply outsourcable services to the EU-15. We analyze trends in trade flows and foreign direct investment in computer services and other business services. Although the available statistical data are deficient and excessively aggregated, the scattered evidence suggests that the CEECs are important suppliers of outsourcable services to the EU-15. Apart from labor cost differentials, other factors, such as the availability of skilled workforce as well as geographical and cultural proximity, might also contribute to EU-15 companies' preference for the CEECs when deciding on the location for international outsourcing of services. Increased specialization within the enlarged European Union could bring greater benefits from the international outsourcing of services, provided the European Union improves the functioning of labor markets and the competitiveness of the service sector, including the efficient implementation of the internal market for services.     

Metaphors of the future and the power of images in the British TV drama Spooks

Our analysis of metaphors of the future in the British TV drama Spooks is situated within the phenomenon of television as a complex narrative and global media product at the time of the proclaimed war on terror. We claim that the conceptualization of the future is shaped by the notion of the conflicts between civilizations, in which various Others are produced by media and military discourses as a threat to western civilization. The dominant discourses in Spooks involve the manageable future (as a destination and a framework) and the future as judgment and apocalypse (which can be avoided through the process of macro-securitization that relies on predictive analysis and the efforts of competent individuals). We explore the anticipatory aspect of the series since it predicted geopolitical trends such as 7/7, the Ukrainian crises and the negative perception of Russia. Spooks deconstructs the notion of a homogenous Western alliance and exposes the hypocrisy of the war on terror which includes the violation of civil rights. Our analysis suggests that the series has transformative potential by offering alternative future perspectives of the different sides in the conflict.     

Scenarios of world development

This article looks at 16 recent studies of global futures and examines their conclusions within a sociopolitical framework.² Three idealised worldviews—conservative, reformist, radical—are constructed from this framework; they are then married with a classification based upon the two parameters of high growth-low growth and equality-inequality. This allows for the concise mapping of existing scenarios and, by the elucidation of the major differences in sociopolitical forecasts, provides a simple but effective technique for comparative analysis. Two quality-of-life issues, the future of work, and of political development and change, are used as concrete examples of how the method can be used to create a series of scenarios which cover the whole socio-political spectrum of alternative futures.     

Euro-visions Technologies of vision in Until the End of the World

Until the End of the World can be seen as a ‘global' film in terms of its production process, theme, narrative structure and universal appeal. The article challenges this universality by demonstrating that the film mobilises distinctive and definitive European perspectives in its attempt to speculate about our global future. The article initially examines the film's imagining of technological development in the near future. The film is particularly preoccupied with the future of ‘technologies of vision', the techno-scientific and artistic ways through which we represent ourselves and the world around us. In Until the End of the World, these ‘technologies of vision' are contrasted to more traditional processes of story-telling. The position that narrative occupies in the film is analysed with particular emphasis on the position and the function ascribed to the narrator. The article locates both the discursive origins of ‘technologies of vision' and the film's critique of them, not in opposing universes, but within the same historical process, sharing a common ‘destiny' and coming from the same (European) view of the world.     

Maintaining the roots of economic development in an era of globalized production

The globalization of economic activity is being driven by market processes. The market based indicators used to measure its progress mask serious and wide-spread economic problems that also undermine our economic future. Alternative indicators, designed to give a more accurate reading of our economic well being, are being developed, but more work and wider acceptance of the concepts are needed. An examination of economic theory reveals that there is no basis for the claims that market based guideposts and decision making lead to inherently superior results and provide support for the search for non-market criteria in the evaluation of economic development. The labor movement has long sought to establish international standards as one criterion of production. A review of the global approach of the ILO, the narrowly focused European Union agreements, and the treaty-based fair deal movement provides guidance for future directions for policy work.     

Future of North Cyprus: An economic-strategic appraisal

Based on qualitative methods of study of the future, including experts interviews and the deliberations of a symposium, this paper analyses the shape of things to come for North Cyprus in the light of its historical backlog and the present scenarios. It argues that the impact of globalisation is becoming very decisive in this part of the world: there are important players including the US, Russia, Turkey, Greece, European Union, Turkish Cypriots and Greek Cypriots in this strategic region with their vested interests and plans which will be deterministic for the fate of the Island. One of the most crucial of these plans is the Greater Middle East Initiative developed by the US. Given the vectors of forces now active in the political horizon, the future of North Cyprus to be an independent sovereign state looks within reach if Muslim countries continue recognising it.     

The first steps towards harmonizing public sector accounting for European Union member states: strategies and perspectives

This paper analyses the process that led the European Commission to the decision to develop European Public Sector Accounting Standards (EPSAS) for harmonizing public sector accounting practices within the European Union. The paper finds that there was limited scope in terms of stakeholder participation in the public consultation that served as a basis for the decision. In addition, the decision to adopt EPSAS for EU member states raises questions on the relationship between regional and global governance in the area of public sector accounting.     

New Risk-Based Capital Standards in the European Union: A Proposal Based on Empirical Data

In response to criticism concerning the current solvency system, the European Commission is developing new rules for insurance companies operating in the member states of the European Union (EU). Under this so-called Solvency II concept, an insurer is allowed to verify its solvency by using an internal risk management model previously approved by the regulatory authority. In this article we develop such an internal risk management approach for property-liability insurers that is based on dynamic financial analysis (DFA). The proposed concept uses a simulation technique and models the central risk factors from the investment and underwriting areas of an insurance company. On the basis of the data provided by a German insurer, the ruin probabilities under different scenarios and varying planning horizons are calculated.     

Long-range forecasting within organisations

The article describes a method for testing and developing personal and organisational strategies. It suggests the establishment of a group which includes the organisation's partners and competitors (the author outlines why and how objections to the latter should be overcome) and which would progress through initial “unrealistic” games to more realistic scenarios. When combined with role playing, some “uncomfortable” scenarios can lead to members leaving the group and, where they pinpoint weaknesses, can either strengthen the organisation or hasten its decline. By including the organisations' decision makers, the exercise can lead to a rehearsal of the future.     

Scenarios in anthropology: reflections on possible futures of the Suriname Maroons

Traditional concern with social change requires anthropologists to analyze linkages between past, present, and possible future events. Anthropological methods can contribute to speculation about the future because they incorporate what most extrapolations and forecasts lack: (1) uncertainty and surprise, (2) people’s own mental models of the future, and (3) a detailed understanding of specific cultures and the diversity within these cultures. The author argues that Scenario Planning is a useful method that allows ethnographic data to be used for thinking about the future. Scenarios are stories about possible, alternative futures that incorporate human diversity and uncertainty. How Scenario Planning works as an analytical and policy tool is explained and then demonstrated with the example of forest peoples in Suriname, called Maroons. Qualitative data from anthropological fieldwork is used to reveal Maroon perspectives on the future; identify driving forces that might influence their future; and speculate about the different directions these forces may go. Two scenarios are presented and their implications discussed. The article concludes with reflections on the advantages and disadvantages of Scenario Planning as a method in anthropology, and on the contribution that anthropology can make to development policy that envisions and plans for alternative, surprising futures.     

Confused Expectations: Decentralizing the Management of EU Programmes

The management of European Union (EU) spending programmes has been the focus of sustained academic and practitioner criticism for many years. One of the fundamental problems has been with the centralist model of control prevalent within the European Commission's (EC) structures. With the demise of the Santer Commission in 1999, the impetus for change was given a fresh urgency through reports from the Committee of Independent Experts and the EC's 2000 reform White Paper. This article explores the nature and content of the reform agenda, focusing on its decentralizing consequences.     

Carbon Markets in China: Development and Challenges

China is attempting to initiate its own carbon market—an important market-based policy instrument which would determine the fate of global climate policy as the largest emitter of carbon dioxide across the world. This article looks at carbon trading development so far and examines the key challenges ahead in China. These past experiences—whatever from international CDM practice, or SO₂ emission trading and a domestic voluntary carbon market—have paved the solid way to build the existing ETS pilots similar to European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). The investigation into China’s ETS pilots discovered some important and urgent issues such as the capsetting and deepening energy market reform.     

The European flying geese: New FDI patterns for the old continent?

This article attempts to apply the flying geese metaphor to emerging foreign direct investment (FDI) patterns in Europe and the Mediterranean. Such a division of labour is at best at a nascent stage, given the overwhelming share of Western Europe in both inward and outward foreign direct investment flows. Because of these imbalances, special attention is to be paid to Central and Eastern Europe’s (CEE) potential, both in the group joining the European Union (EU) in 2004 and the rest of the subregion. For the former, middle-income countries, risks in investment promotion are related to uncertainty brought about by the transition to European Union’s acquis and an eventually too fast increase in production costs. Policy response to that requires a modernisation of both general and specific investment promotion policies, adjusted to the rules of the Union. For the rest of Central and Eastern Europe, the challenge is to adjust to the enlarged European Union and to improve the business and investment environment, in order to capture the foreign direct investment outflows of other European countries searching for optimum labour costs.     

Financial reporting for sustainable development: Critical insights into IFRS implementation in the European Union

By adopting a political economy perspective to accounting, this paper provides an overall post-implementation assessment of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adoption relative to the European Union’s (EU’s) fundamental goal of sustainable development. The paper questions the consistency of the International Accounting Standards Board’s business view with the EU’s and provides some critical insights into the potential long-run effects of IFRS on the European economy and society. Therefore, it raises several doubts about unquestioned accounting standardization at a global level and makes some suggestions for future policymaking and research.