A third sector approach to Sweden's future

The two development models summarized in this study are: Model “K” — export-led growth, aimed at goods-oriented production, public service expansion, real wage increases, high rate of employment, and industry: high technology for worldmarkets; and Model “A” — mobilization of work, by means of promotion of the informal economy, policies for unorthodox municipal problem-solving, service growth (by mixed formal or informal organization), and, for industry, less emphasis on expansion and exports, more on domestic consumer needs.     

Visioning 2035: The future of the higher education sector in the UK

The concept of ‘university’ has been around for centuries and yet the majority of British Universities have yet to reach their 50th birthday. The higher education sector has been through extensive change over a relatively short period of time and this is likely to continue in the future. This paper presents the results of a futures study focussed on the Higher Education sector in the UK in 10 and 25 years time. Following an extensive, broad ranging literature review covering business, education, futures, and socio-political texts and studies, a series of scenarios were developed for the future of the sector as a whole. This study differs from other studies in its field as it is does not focus on individual institutions, but rather at the environmental factors that are going to impact on the sector, setting out a range of scenarios within which institutions will need to shape their individual futures. Five scenarios are presented in this paper with their underlying driving factors, and their implications for the academic workforce being employed in the sector.     

The impact of banking sector reform in a transition economy: Evidence from Kyrgyzstan

We examine the impact of financial sector reform on interest rate levels and spreads using Kyrgyz bank-level data from 1998 to 2005. We find that, in addition to macroeconomic stabilization, structural reforms to the banking sector significantly contributed to lower interest rates. In particular, our results suggest that foreign bank entry and regulatory efforts to increase average bank size were important in reducing deposit rates. In contrast, we find little evidence that banking sector reform or macroeconomic stabilization has impacted interest rate spreads.     

New development: The UK coalition government and the future of public sector pensions

This article presents a critical analysis of the contemporary attack on public sector occupational pensions in the UK. It traces the implications of the attack for future pensions policy on this issue.     

Effacing the political future : A response to

Political change within industrial countries will accompany the restructuring of economies and international relations in the 1980s. The most detailed study of alternative scenarios involving the latter issues—the report—treats domestic politics in terms of notions of value change. This article criticises these widespread ideas. Futures studies need to take political trends seriously, including those towards corporatism and the strong state. In this light the development of the informal sector can be no panacea for problems of political and economic power.     

Megaw and the public sector: A union response

One Civil Service union ‐ the Institute of Professional Civil Servants ‐ welcomed the Megaw Report on the grounds that it would help restore internal relativities. Unions representing the great majority of civil servants, however, came out strongly against it. The general secretaries of the Civil and Public Servants Association and the Society of Civil and Public Servants prepared a note for the TUC's public service committee on the implications of Megaw for the public sector as a whole. The following is based on that note.     

Effacing the political future: A response to interfutures

Political change within industrial countries will accompany the restructuring of economies and international relations in the 1980s. The most detailed study of alternative scenarios involving the latter issues—the interfutures report—treats domestic politics in terms of notions of value change. This article criticises these widespread ideas. Futures studies need to take political trends seriously, including those towards corporatism and the strong state. In this light the development of the informal sector can be no panacea for problems of political and economic power.     

Practical bioregionalism: A philosophy for a sustainable future and a hypothetical transition strategy for Armidale, New South Wales, Australia

To reorientate society towards sustainability, a clear vision based on a coherent philosophy is needed to act as a compass point. This research describes one possible ‘eco-utopian’ approach, and uses it to develop a hypothetical set of transition strategies aimed at the transformation of an Australian regional community. The vision combines bioregional principles with ecological modernisation theory to present a model of a small-scale society that is socially and ecologically responsive. In this model, communities are organised primarily around naturally defined regions, but are outward looking and globally engaged. Political decision-making is democratic, participatory and collaborative. An ethos rooted in the notion of a global civil society provides vision and desirable levels of accountability. Production and consumption are local, cooperative and use natural resources efficiently. Existing social and political trends suggest that the bioregional model developed in this paper is both pragmatic and possible. A hypothetical case-study approach is used to illustrate how such ‘practical bioregionalism’ may be successfully adopted. An initial 25-year plan, with five desired outcomes, is outlined for the Armidale Plateau region of New South Wales, Australia. Key strategies include use of Local Agenda 21 processes, the development of a bioregional strategic plan and partial economic localisation. Implementation requires active participation of the community, including government and business actors. It is argued that the proposed transition strategy is also of direct relevance to achieving sustainability goals in larger urban areas and the global South.     

The European pulp and paper industry in transition to a bio-economy: A Delphi study

The current challenge facing the European pulp and paper industry is how to materialize the transformation to a bio-economy, as well as to realize the necessary new green innovations. The risks, costs and constraints of doing business will increase, thereby further intensifying competition, but at the same time new business opportunities will open up. This study adopts a three-round dissensus-based Delphi approach in order to explore our key research question of how the pulp and paper industry may change strategically, and what is the potential for value creation in the year 2030. According to our expert panel, the main drivers of competitiveness in 2030 will include energy and material efficiency, sustainability, as well as new innovations in products to serve customer needs better. According to the projected 2030 scenario, the pulp and paper industry will produce more diversified products, focus on higher value-added, and aim at consumer segments with higher environmental awareness. On average, 40 percent of the turnover will according to the panel come from genuinely new products. Strategic cross-sectorial partnerships will have a key role in making this big leap, while simultaneously acknowledging the changing needs of sustainability-conscious customers and other stakeholders.     

Consolidation in the public sector: a cross-country comparison

This article analyses consolidated annual accounts in the public sector in six countries (Sweden, the UK, the USA, Canada, New Zealand and Australia) highlighting the differences and similarities in approaches. The authors also examine international trends and take an in-depth look at the International Public Sector Accounting Standards Board (IPSASB).     

A market-based approach to sector risk determinants and transmission in the euro area

In a panel data framework applied to Portfolio Distance-to-Default series of corporate sectors in the euro area, this paper evaluates systemic and idiosyncratic determinants of default risk and examines how distress is transferred in and between the financial and corporate sectors since the early days of the euro. This approach takes into account observed and unobserved common factors and the presence of different degrees of cross-section dependence in the form of economic proximity. This paper contributes to the financial stability literature with a contingent claims approach to a sector-based analysis with a less dominant macro focus while being compatible with existing stress-testing methodologies in the literature. A disaggregated analysis of the different corporate and financial sectors allows for a more detailed assessment of specificities in terms of risk profile, i.e. heterogeneity of business models, risk exposures and interaction with the rest of the macro environment.     

Regulation and the connectedness of insurers to the banking sector: International evidence

Using variation across countries and time in the degree to which regulations restrict banks and insurers from engaging in the same activities, we find that property/liability insurers' connectedness to the banking sector declines when regulatory restrictions increase, but life insurers' connectedness to banks does not. The results suggest that the connectedness between life insurers and banks is largely due to these institutions sharing common underlying economic and financial risk factors that exist even when regulation restricts these institutions from engaging in each other's activities.     

How numbers of the future are shaping today: The role of forecasts and calculations in public sector strategic thinking

This article examines the role of numbers in forming a city strategy in the case of Gothenburg, Sweden. The article illustrates how numbers make people act and react and shape the strategy process. The study is situated between the theoretical fields of accounting and strategy processes in cities. By relating them to the concept of ‘governmentality’, numbers are seen as helping render the city governable. Because strategizing is seen as concerning the future, the actors involved in drafting the strategy feel free to challenge historically institutionalized practices. The effect is paradoxical: the future‐looking strategy process becomes a forum for solving current problems.     

Changing institutional logics: shifting to a new service model in the Finnish public sector

ABSTRACT

This paper describes the implementation of corporatized shared services (CSS) in Finnish municipalities and the shift of operating logics. The diffusion of the new logics gradually proceeded to two levels: the individual level and the collective level. At the individual level, identity and cognitive skills were important to the diffusion of the new logics. At the collective level, shared services encouraged managers and employees to share not only practical experiences, but also collective identity.