Does the spatial representation affect criteria weights in environmental decision-making? Insights from a behavioral experiment

The need and interest to consider cognitive and motivational biases has been recognized in different disciplines (e.g. economics, decision theory, risk analysis) and has recently reached environmental decision-making. Within this domain, the intrinsic presence of a spatial dimension of both alternatives and criteria calls for the use of maps throughout the decision-making process to properly represent the spatial distribution of the features under analysis. This makes spatial Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) a particularly interesting domain to explore new dimensions of cognitive biases. This study proposes a behavioral experiment aimed at discovering to what extent the spatial visualization (i.e. maps) of criteria versus the non-spatial one (i.e. tables) can bias the weight elicitation phase of a spatial MCDA process. The experiment simulates a very common analysis in environmental and land use planning: land suitability analysis. Our findings show that there are significant consequences on how important we perceive a certain criterion to be, depending on whether it is represented as a map or as a table among a mix of maps and tables. Indeed, the map representation of the same criterion leads to higher weights attributed to that criterion compared to the table representation. Visualizing the same information as a map or as a table, although technically equivalent, is thus not psychologically equivalent for Decision Makers. The results of this experiment are expected to have implications for spatial decision-making processes, by generating better awareness on the impacts of map-mediated land suitability analysis.     

Is PPGIS good enough? An empirical evaluation of the quality of PPGIS crowd-sourced spatial data for conservation planning

A significant barrier to the use of public participation GIS (PPGIS) and crowd-sourcing for conservation planning is uncertainty about the quality of the spatial data generated. This study examines the quality of PPGIS data for use in conservation planning. We evaluate two dimensions of spatial data quality, positional accuracy and data completeness using empirical PPGIS data from a statewide study of public lands in Victoria, Australia. Using an expert-derived spatial conservation model for Victoria as a benchmark, we quantify the performance of a crowd-sourced public in their capacity to accurately and comprehensively identify areas of high conservation importance in the PPGIS process. About 70% of PPGIS points that identified biological/conservation values were spatially coincident (position accurate) with modeled areas of high conservation importance, with greater accuracy associated with locations in existing protected areas. PPGIS data had less positional accuracy when participants identified biological values in urban areas and on non-public lands in general. The PPGIS process did not comprehensively identify all the largest, contiguous areas of high conservation importance in the state, missing about 20% of areas, primarily on small public land units in less densely populated regions of the state. Preferences for increased conservation/protection were over-represented in areas proximate to the Melbourne urban area and under-represented in more remote statewide locations. Our results indicate that if PPGIS data is to be integrated into spatial models for conservation planning, it is important to account for the spatial accuracy and completeness limitations identified in this study (i.e., urban areas, non-public lands, and smaller remote locations). The spatial accuracy and completeness of PPGIS data in this study suggests spatial data quality may be “good enough” to complement biological data in conservation planning but perhaps not good enough to overcome the mistrust associated with crowd-sourced knowledge. Recommendations to improve PPGIS data quality for prospective conservation planning applications are discussed.     

Hedonic pricing and the spatial structure of housing data – an application to Berlin

Housing prices are largely determined by physical location. By applying the outsample prediction accuracy of rental prices as evaluation criteria, we examine whether the choice of the hedonic model additionally depends on the spatial structure of housing data, i.e. accounting for locational effects by either district fixed effects or spatial econometric modelling. Our results show that a generalised spatio-temporal model outperforms a district fixed effects model only if the spatial density – the weighted mean distance to nearest neighbours – is relatively small. Moreover, we use the required density thresholds to deduce a pseudo indifference curve, thereby showing that the ratio of the weighted spatial distance-to-the mean district diameter increases with the mean sample size per district. This emphasises the role of data structure and district choices for model selection. Differences in data can thereby serve as an explanation for contradictory findings in literature, whether spatial econometric methods or simple district fixed effects are used.     

The application of the Habitats Directive in the UK: Compliance or gold plating?

The implementation of the Birds and Habitats Directives in the UK has caused considerable unease within some parts of industry. Ports in particular have voiced concerns and have argued that the UK Government's interpretation of the Directives is more comprehensive than strictly necessary, likening it to ‘gold plating’. They have argued that this has placed the UK at a disadvantage to other European competitors. This paper explores these contentions and examines case histories to establish the veracity of the arguments.     

What drives innovation in the agricultural sector? A spatial analysis of knowledge spillovers

This article analyses the spatial concentration of agricultural innovation in Ireland. Influenced by the importance of knowledge spillovers, the roles of key innovation drivers are discussed. The analysis reveals a clear spatial concentration of agricultural innovation and while some of this variation can be explained by the spatial concentration of the sector, there are also other factors at play that drive the spatial distribution of innovation. More specifically, the distributions of research, education and advisory services show a similar spatial pattern to agricultural innovation, providing support for the existence of regional knowledge spillovers.     

Introduction to the Special Feature: Will the BRIC Decade Continue? The Role of Rural Areas and Agriculture

This article provides an introduction to the special feature on agriculture‐related issues in the emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) contained in this issue of Journal of Agricultural Economics. The special feature is motivated by the increased interest which these countries have received since the turn of the millennium and by the significance of agriculture in their development. It considers economic and social development in BRICs, their integration in world agricultural trade as well as environmental concerns. This article presents key figures on economic, social and agricultural features in BRICs and compares them across countries. A synthesis of the articles included in the special feature is provided by highlighting the selection of topics likely to be crucial for further development across BRICs.     

Will They Stay or Will They Go? Simulating the Dynamics of Single‐Holder Farms in a Dualistic Farm Structure in Slovakia

This paper investigates the dynamic interplay between farm exit and entry of single‐holder farms (SF) in a dualistic farm structure in the Nitra region of the Slovak Republic. Our focus is on economic and noneconomic reasons for farm exit. The impact of varying both the likelihood of succession and the initial farm operator age distributions is studied. An agent‐based simulation model of structural change in agriculture is applied, which brings together farm‐internal and ‐external determinants and creates a set of endogenous adjustment reactions. We show that the stepwise introduction of direct payments of the Common Agricultural Policy in Slovakia has a strong impact on its structural development. In the short‐ to medium‐term, the dualistic farm structure together with a specific age structure of farms still persists as a response to the policy. The phasing‐in of payments persuades SF to stay and potential successors to enter. In the longer run, the initially heterogeneous farm structure becomes increasingly homogeneous toward larger SF. The prevalence of small SF in the medium‐ to long‐term is not necessarily a given. This may lead decision makers to reconsider the role of individual farms in rural development. Dans le présent article, nous avons étudié la relation entre l'entrée en agriculture de fermes à propriétaire unique et leur sortie dans un contexte d'agriculture dualiste dans la région de Nitra, en Slovaquie. Nous nous sommes concentrés sur les raisons économiques et non économiques qui motivent la sortie. Nous avons étudié l'impact liéà la possibilité de relève et à la répartition par âge des agriculteurs. Pour évaluer le changement structurel en agriculture, nous avons utilisé un modèle de simulation multi‐agent qui réunit les facteurs internes et externes et crée un ensemble de réactions d'adaptation endogènes. Nous avons montré que l'introduction progressive des paiements directs accordés dans le cadre de la Politique agricole commune en Slovaquie a des répercussions considérables sur son développement structurel. À court et à moyen termes, l'agriculture dualiste, combinée à la structure de l'âge des exploitations agricoles, demeure une réaction à la politique en place. La mise en place progressive des paiements persuade les exploitations à propriétaire unique de demeurer dans le secteur et encourage les successeurs potentiels à y entrer. À plus long terme, la structure agricole qui était hétérogène au départ devient de plus en plus homogène et compte de plus grandes fermes à propriétaire unique. À court et à moyen termes, la prévalence de petites fermes à propriétaire unique ne va pas nécessairement de soi. Cette situation pourrait amener les décideurs à réexaminer le rôle des exploitations individuelles dans le développement rural.     

The returns to promotion of healthy choices in Tasmania: are you in the dark about the power of mushrooms?

The Australian Mushroom Growers Association (AMGA) has recently developed a revised marketing strategy to promote mushrooms using messages based on scientific findings about the nutrition and health consequences of regularly incorporating mushrooms into meals. This article evaluates impacts based on a test‐market experiment in Tasmania. We use a difference‐in‐differences econometric methodology to quantify the programme‐induced shifts in demand, and we use the resulting estimates in a supply and demand modelling framework to quantify the effects of promotion‐induced demand shifts on prices, quantities, and measures of economic well‐being. We estimate a conservative benefit–cost ratio for Tasmanian producers of 7.6:1 if they were to bear the entire cost and 11.4:1 if the programme were financed by a levy on production (or spawn). The aggregate benefit–cost ratio, including benefits to consumers is also 11.4:1.     

Farmers’ perception of their decision-making in relation to policy schemes: A comparison of case studies from Switzerland and the United States

Farmers are decision-makers in a complex system of cause and effect. They decide with respect to their own attitude and beliefs, according to their farm structure and they take into account programs and regulations of the overarching policy scheme. In this paper we used mail surveys with identical questions to establish a cross-national comparison of two case study areas. The questionnaire investigates farmer's perspectives on what influences their own decision-making as well as their perception of the socio-ecological environment to relate these findings to the respective policy schemes in the case study areas. The two case studies are located in Southern Illinois, United States and in central Switzerland. The analysis shows that full-time farmers of the Southern Illinois case study area rate constraining factors such as financial aspects higher than Southern Illinois part-time farmers and farmers from the central Switzerland case study area. Furthermore, it is apparent that Swiss case study-farmers rate aspects of their land use responsibility and the Illinois case study-farmers rate ecological aspects higher. The empirical findings can be qualitatively explained through analysis of agricultural policy schemes.     

How to assess the impact of hope on a change in the use of land on market value?

This article is devoted to common yet quite specific approaches to valuation practice tasks that are involved in determining the market value of real properties in areas of possible land use changes. An intrinsic element of market value in such areas is the hope value, for which an option pricing model is used quite frequently.The authors propose a specially adapted Samuelson-McKean model for this task, which allows market value indication to be determined not only with the built-in development option, but also the dynamics of its components value in the current highest and best use and hope value – depending on the location of the given property. The greatest advantage of the Samuelson-McKean model is that it can be treated as universal for analyzing the range of possible indications of market value seeing as how its main task is to find a compromise between the interests of the buyer and the seller, which is the goal of any fair transactions and decisions.     

Breaking with the past? The politics of land restitution and the limits to restitutive justice in Myanmar

Land reforms, which include restitution and redistribution of land, often accompany political transitions, as new regimes attempt to break with the past by establishing new modes of governance. The political transition that began in Myanmar in 2011 provides one such example. In Myanmar’s ‘rice bowl’, the Ayeyarwady Delta, widespread land confiscations during the 1990s and 2000s facilitated the establishment of large fish farms, often at the expense of smallholder cultivators who worked agricultural lands without formal use rights. Reforms initiated in 2011 appeared to offer the prospect of restitutive land justice for rural households affected by land confiscation, but this promise has been slow to materialize. Drawing on fieldwork conducted in the Delta, this paper analyzes the narratives and strategies deployed by different groups of state and societal actors advocating for and against land restitution, focusing on the competing uses of two concepts: legality and legitimacy. In doing so, we explore how state-society relations in Myanmar have been reworked through these processes of contestation, and examine possibilities for, and limits to, progressive land reform during political transition.     

Does participation in the sloping land conversion program reduce the sensitivity of Chinese farmers to climate change?

Over the last two decades, extensive literature has examined the socioeconomic and environmental impacts of China's Sloping Land Conversion Program (SLCP), a program that was launched in late 1990s to mitigate the environmental effects of agricultural production and reduce rural poverty. However, little empirical evidence exists with regard to the impact of SLCP on rural households' sensitivity to nature-induced changes and environmental challenges. In this study, household-level data covering the period 1995–2010 from five Chinese provinces were used to examine the effect of SLCP on farmers' sensitivity to climate change. The empirical results show that participation in SLCP significantly reduced farmers' sensitivity to climate change by reducing their dependency on land and natural resources for income, and by diversifying their livelihood options. Spatially, the results reveal that the effect of SLCP on farmers' sensitivity vary across regions. Specifically, SLCP was found to have a ‘rate effect’ on farmers in the Northern regions and a ‘level effect’ on farmers in the Southern regions. Likewise, we found that the effect of SLCP differs considerably across income groups, with the effect on low- and middle-income groups being most significant. The results indicate that subsidy is the main pathway through which SLCP reduces farmers' sensitivity to climate change. In contrast, we found inclusive evidence about the indirect effect of SLCP farmers' sensitivity through the promotion of non-agricultural employment. These results carry major implications with regard to the effectiveness of ecological conservation programs and their mitigation potential through building farmers' resilience in China and ecologically fragile environments.     

Evaluating willingness to pay for the temporal distribution of different air quality improvements: Is China's clean air target adequate to ensure welfare maximization?

Stated preference analyses seeking to determine the public's value for air quality improvements often estimate willingness to pay (WTP) for days at a specified minimum quality threshold (e.g., days with clean air), but do not consider the temporal distribution of pollution levels below this threshold. This paper develops a choice experiment designed to evaluate WTP for a more complete distribution of air quality improvements, including the number of days per year at multiple air quality levels. The model is applied to a case study of air quality improvement in the core districts of Xi'an City, China. Results from a linearly constrained mixed logit model demonstrate that average household WTP for improving a lightly polluted, moderately polluted, heavily polluted, or severely polluted day to a clean air day is 7.42, 8.90, 13.06, and 24.28 RMB per year, respectively. These results show that WTP depends not only on the total number of clean air days, but on the total distribution of pollution levels across all days of the year. Results are directly relevant to the development of clean air policies in China, for which benefit estimates are currently unavailable.     

Comparing the spatial and temporal dynamics of urban expansion in Guangzhou and Shenzhen from 1975 to 2015: A case study of pioneer cities in China’s rapid urbanization

The distinct urbanization process of China has attracted worldwide attention because of its impressive speed, massive scale, and policy intervention. However, the interrelationship between urban expansion and government policies is still not well understood. The Pearl River Delta Urban Agglomeration of China is the first national pioneering urbanization area since the implementation of the policy “Reform and Opening-up” in the late 1970s. Here we compared the spatial and temporal patterns of urbanization in two leading cities of the Pearl River Delta (i.e., Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the provincial capital and the first Special Economic Zone of China, respectively) from 1975 to 2015, using Landsat data integrated with urban growth and landscape metrics analysis, and examined possible footprints of major economic and urbanization policies. Our results illustrated that urban land areas in both Guangzhou and Shenzhen have experienced magnificent annual growth rates at 8.1% and 11%, respectively between 1975 and 2015. On average, Shenzhen witnessed substantially higher urban growth rate than Guangzhou during the past four decades, particularly in the initial period (1978–1990) when the Reform and Opening-up policy was launched and Shenzhen was designated as the first Special Economic Zone in China in the late 1970s. However, the speed of urban expansion in Shenzhen became considerably lower than Guangzhou from 2005 to 2015, subject to physical conditions and a series of urban land use policies. Both cities showed a generally similar dynamics of urban growth forms with leapfrogging as the predominant type of urban growth at first and then edge-expansion while the contribution of infilling in Shenzhen was higher than that in Guangzhou, especially since 2005. The urbanization processes characterized by landscape and urban growth metrics revealed that a diffusion-coalescence-diffusion-coalescence process was identified for Guangzhou, while Shenzhen was generally consistent with the diffusion-coalescence urban growth hypothesis.     

Do housing prices promote total factor productivity? Evidence from spatial panel data models in explaining the mediating role of population density

The issue of what to promote in total factor productivity (TFP) in urban areas has been widely discussed in academia and housing prices and population density are confirmed to be two of the most essential driving factors. However, research into the interaction of housing prices and population density with TFP has been neglected, with no previous studies taking spatial factors into consideration, which may bias the results. From this perspective, using spatial panel data models and employing instrumental variables to solve the endogenous problem, this study examines the impact of housing prices on TFP through the mediating effect of population density for 283 Chinese cities during the period 2000–2013, and confirms that the mediating effect accounts for 18.70 % of the total effect. The results show the positive and significant association of housing prices with TFP and the inverted U-shape of population density. The underlying logic is that housing prices change population density by attracting people with high purchasing power and discouraging those unable to afford housing, whereas increased density helps to promote productivity since the settled inhabitants always have highly developed work skills and are well educated. The influencing mechanism of housing prices on TFP through population density is analyzed, namely the spillover effect. We find that the spillover effect exists in the eastern and central regions, as well as first, second, and third tier cities, while for western regions and fifth tier cities, population mobility and increased in housing prices slows their economic development. There is no evidence of any spillover effect in fourth tier cities. A discussion and suggested policy implications are also provided.     

Institutional attitudes to property investment in the UK — last waltz of the dinosaurs round the ‘prime property’ totem pole?

Summary

Institutions which own and develop property are just beginning to recognize that they are offering a product which no longer enjoys a guaranteed market with ever increasing returns. In the increasingly difficult and discerning letting markets of the 1980's they are having to accept that the price (both in rental and capital terms) of the product they own and offer will depend entirely on how it meets the needs of their customers, the tenants. Like many other quasi‐monopolists used to operating in protected markets in the past, they may find the process of adjusting to this new world goes further, last longer and hurts more than they expect. Against that background, the traditional distinctions between ‘prime’, ‘secondary’ and ‘tertiary’ property in the investment market, as well as the old dividing lines between the office, industrial and retail categories are beginning to break down. Hillier Parker, for example, have published research suggesting that rents of secondary shop properties grew much faster than ‘prime’ rents over the past five years. The lowest yields, and highest prices, rents and investment ratings must eventually come together to produce an explosion of relative value in the locations and buildings with the best record and prospect of growing tenant demand.     

Are existing soils data meeting the needs of stakeholders in Europe? An analysis of practical use from policy to field

Soils form a major component of the natural system and their functions underpin many key ecosystem goods and services. The fundamental importance of soils in the environment means that many different organisations and stakeholders make extensive use of soils data and information in their everyday working practices. For many reasons, stakeholders are not always aware that they are reliant upon soil data and information to support their activities. Various reviews of stakeholder needs and how soil information could be improved have been carried out in recent years. However, to date, there has been little consideration of user needs from a non-expert perspective. The aim of this study was to explore the use of explicit and hidden soil information in different organisations across Europe and gain a better understanding of improvements needed in soil data and information to assist in practical use by non-expert stakeholders. An on-line questionnaire was used to investigate different uses of soils data and information with 310 responses obtained from 77 organisations across Europe. Results illustrate the widespread use of soil data and information across diverse organisations within Europe, particularly spatial products and soil functional assessments and tools. A wide range of improvements were expressed with a prevalence for finer scale resolution, trends over time, future scenarios, improved accuracy, non-technical supporting information and better capacity to use GIS. An underlying message is that existing legacy soils data need to be supplemented by new up-to-date data to meet stakeholder needs and information gaps.     

Forest or oil palm plantation? Interpretation of local responses to the oil palm promises in Kalimantan,Indonesia

Global land use/land cover change is dominated by the expansion of cash crops plantations, replacing natural ecosystems including forests. International trade is an important factor in this process. Increasing demand on certain crops has triggered plantation expansion and deforestation, and influence local land use in other countries (land teleconnections). Oil palm expansion is one of the most prominent examples of land teleconnections. In Indonesia, oil palm plantations area increased from 1.1 million ha in 1990 to 11.2 million ha in 2015. According to the Indonesian Law on Plantation, the indigenous people's decisions play important roles in land use decisions. This paper investigates what were the factors (drivers) determining the individual-level responses to the oil palm promises in West Kalimantan. These questions are not only important for the future of Kalimantan’s rainforest but will also enrich deforestation and conservation-development discourses. We selected 49 respondents for interviews and focus groups such that people who opposed and people who supported the conversion were both well represented. Much attention was paid to arrive at a balanced set of operational variables, such as the economic resilience, agency and embeddedness of actors and the degree to which actors had appreciated and believed the oil palm promise. Data were analyzed through the QCA method. The outcomes show a perfect association of appreciation of the oil palm promises, belief in them and the decision to support the oil palm. This was not strongly associated with low economic resilience however; economically less resilient respondents could reject the oil palm conversion, while economically resilient respondents could support it. In other words, the data do not point to a poverty/deforestation nexus. Rather, the data suggest the existence of an ‘embeddedness / rejection nexus’; people that were well-connected to community, traditions and nature held long-term motivations and rejected the oil palm promise, and vice versa. More attention to this phenomenon will help bridge conservation-development objectives in Kalimantan.     

Is forest carbon sequestration at the expense of bioenergy and forest products cost-efficient in EU climate policy to 2050?

Forest management affects the quantity of CO₂ emissions in the atmosphere through carbon sequestration in standing biomass, carbon storage in forest products and production of bioenergy. The main question studied in this paper is whether forest carbon sequestration is worth increasing at the expense of bioenergy and forest products to achieve the EU emissions reduction target for 2050 in a cost-efficient manner. A dynamic cost minimisation model is used to find the optimal combination of carbon abatement strategies to meet annual emissions targets between 2010 and 2050. The results indicate that forest carbon sequestration is a low-cost abatement method. With sequestration, the net present costs of meeting EU carbon targets can be reduced by 23%.