Abnormal returns before acquisition announcements: evidence from Europe

Acquisition announcements influence the stock price of target firms, providing an opportunity for insiders to obtain significant abnormal returns. We study the presence of positive abnormal returns before the announcement date, in target firms, quoted in Euronext markets (Belgium, France, The Netherlands and Portugal) from 2001 to 2007. We investigate whether the pre-announcement run-up of prices can be explained by rumours in the media and the percentage of capital previously owned by the bidding firm, among other factors. We examine cumulative abnormal returns in an event window of 60 days prior the acquisition announcement, with the event date adjusted for the previous disclosure of news about the acquisition, in the media. We compute a run-up index, and find that there are abnormal positive returns before the announcement date, confirming previous studies. We find that a significant part of the run-up is explained by: (i) market anticipation triggered by legitimate sources of information, namely, rumours in the media about the possibility of an acquisition bid and (ii) the percentage of capital previously owned in the target firm, by the bidding firm.     

宗教与政治：对欧洲和美国的比较分析

通过对美国和欧洲共10个国家(英国、法国、德国、意大利、西班牙、丹麦、荷兰、奥地利、波兰)的16,000名成年人进行的跨国调查(2002及2003年),本文考察了当地的宗教信仰状况,着重于他们对神权、生命的实质及生命的开始等三方面的理解认识,并进一步研究了他们的一些宗教行为(如祈祷及参与宗教活动的频率)和对宗教领袖的信任程度。本文的重点在于分析个人宗教价值观对其就新兴生化科技所持政治态度的影响。为此收集了广泛的研究数据,考察受访者对主要生化科技,如胚胎干细胞应用、转基因食品和克隆等的观点和态度。最后,使用多元回归研究模式的结构方程模型(SEM)分别描述了人们的宗教价值观、对生命的理解、年龄、性别和教育水平等几个变量对于堕胎、胚胎干细胞应用研究和安乐死等三项公共政策争论的影响。     

Increasing returns and cycles in fishing

We consider optimal fishery management under the assumption of increasing returns that is supported by previous empirical evidence. We improve the tractability and realism of the previous approaches by introducing flow adjustment costs on changes in harvest rate. Our framework is the first to provide a link between stable limit cycle policies and increasing returns in harvesting. The type of the harvest policy depends on flow adjustment costs: for relatively costly adjustments the usual steady state harvest policy is conceivable, whereas for relatively cheap adjustments the harvest policy is cyclical. We also show a connection between chattering control policies and limit cycles, which helps us to develop a clear economic meaning for cyclical harvesting.     

Computer adoption and returns in transition

Across nine transition economies, it is the young, educated, English‐speaking workers with the best access to local telecommunications infrastructures who work with computers. These workers earn about 25 percent more than do workers of comparable observable skills who do not use computers. Controlling for likely simultaneity between computer use at work and labour market earnings makes the apparent returns to computer use disappear. These results are corroborated using Russian longitudinal data on earnings and computer use on the job. High costs of computer use in transition economies suppress wages that firms can pay to their workers who use computers.     

“民俗宗教”与国家的宗教政策

本文以在中国乡村进行的田野调查为实例,试图说明中国民众宗教生活的基本特征、中国宗教问题的复杂性以及揭示国家对于国民宗教信仰生活的深刻介入。在对“民俗宗教”予以界定、对“民俗宗教”的相关问题予以阐明的基础上,作者进一步讨论了“民俗宗教”与国家宗教政策的关系。作者认为,应该在中国的国家宗教分类体系中增加“民俗宗教”的内容,同时还应该进一步调整宗教政策,把最具有普遍性的“民俗宗教”也纳入到国家宗教政策法规的保护和管理之下。     

Inflation and asset returns

Sustained inflation is detrimental to long-run growth and the financial system. A recent theoretical literature suggests that high inflation implies low real returns on assets. These low returns exacerbate informational frictions, interfering with the functioning of financial markets and the allocation of investment. We investigate the plausibility of an inverse relationship between inflation and real returns. Inflation and nominal equity returns are negatively correlated or uncorrelated for all low-to-moderate inflation economies examined. Safe nominal rates of return and inflation are only weakly positively correlated. However, for high inflation economies inflation and nominal returns are strongly positively correlated.     

Liquidity and equity returns in Borsa Istanbul

We investigate the relationship between expected returns and liquidity measures in Borsa Istanbul. To do so, we gather a wide range of illiquidity measures that can be applied to the market. Firm-level cross-sectional regressions indicate that there is a positive relationship between various illiquidity measures and one- to six-month ahead stock returns. Findings of the article are robust after using different sample periods and controlling for well-known priced factors, such as market beta, size, book-to-market ratio and momentum. The portfolio analysis reveals that stocks that are in the highest illiquidity quintile earn 7.2%–19.2% higher risk-adjusted annual returns than those in the lowest illiquidity quintile. The illiquidity premium is stronger for small stocks and stocks with higher return volatility and it increases (decreases) during periods of extremely low (high) market returns.     

Human capital values and returns: Bounds implied by earnings and asset returns data

We provide theory for calculating bounds on both the value of an individual?s human capital and the return on an individual?s human capital, given knowledge of the process governing earnings and financial asset returns. We calculate bounds using U.S. data on male earnings and financial asset returns. The large idiosyncratic component of earnings risk implies that bounds on values and returns are quite loose. However, when aggregate shocks are the only source of earnings risk, both bounds are tight.     

Grexit news and stock returns

During the first 8 months of 2015, there was an ongoing debate about whether or not Greece should remain in the euro area. Using an event study approach, we quantify the effects of Grexit-related statements made by six important euro area politicians (Merkel, Schaeuble, Tsipras, Varoufakis, Juncker, and Schulz) on intraday stock returns in Germany, Greece, and the euro area during the period of 1 January 2015–19 August 2015. We show that positive statements indicating that a Grexit is less likely lead to higher returns, and negative statements to lower returns. The overall impact of negative statements is more pronounced. The cumulative absolute effects on stock returns are sizeable as the statements contribute to a variation of up to 58 percentage points in the ATHEX. These large effects are of particular relevance as our study only captures an 8-month snapshot of the Greek Government debt crisis.     

Sunspots and predictable asset returns

This paper uses a stylised asset-pricing model to show that sunspots may cause asset returns to be predictable, a widely documented feature of many speculative markets. This result parallels and extends previous works showing that sunspots render asset prices excessively volatile.     

Collective efficiency and increasing returns

Recent research on industrial clusters in developing countrieshas unearthed some notable success stories of small local enterprisesgrowing fast and competing in export markets. This paper focuseson some conceptual and theoretical points which help to explainthem. The discussion is conducted with a view to building abridge to current mainstream economics.     

Profit persistence and stock returns

This article attempts to assemble further empirical evidence on the relationship between the product and the financial market. Drawing back on work in industrial organization, we analyse the relationship between profit persistence and factor-adjusted stock returns looking at about 2000 listed US firms over the last 34 years. While the relationship between (current, lagged and unexpected) profits/earnings and returns has been extensively analysed before, to our knowledge this is the first study to look at the relationship between stock returns and profit persistence. We interpret profit persistence as a result of market competition and innovation of the firm. It is shown that firm-specific long-run profit persistence after correction for other additional economic fundamentals of the firm has a positive impact on four-factor adjusted returns and a negative impact on their volatility.     

Religion and political economy in Saint-Simon

Abstract

The project of Henri Saint-Simon (1760–1825) was to complete the French Revolution by a social change in order to eliminate the so-called “feudal-military” system and to bring about a new society which he named “the industrial system”. Everything had to be changed, including religion and its relation to political economy. In this paper, I examine: (i) the recurring problem of religion, raised by Saint-Simon as early as his first text; (ii) the emergence of the economic problem of identifying production with politics; (iii) and finally, the metamorphosis of the Christian religion into a moral and industrial religion.     

Increasing returns and market efficiency in agricultural trade

Using detailed trader surveys in Benin, Madagascar, and Malawi, this paper investigates the presence of increasing returns in agricultural trade. After analyzing margins, costs, and value added, we find little evidence of returns to scale. Motorized transport is found more cost effective for large loads on longer distances. But transporters appear to pool quantities from multiple traders. Margin rates show little relationship with transaction size. Personal travel costs are a source of increasing returns, but the effect is small. Consequently, total marketing costs are nearly proportional to transaction size. Working and network capital are key determinants of value added. Constant returns to scale in all accumulable factors–working capital, labor, and network capital–cannot be rejected. This implies that policies to restrict entry into agricultural trade are neither necessary nor useful. Governments should focus instead on technological and institutional innovations to upgrade agricultural markets.     

Increasing returns and market efficiency in agricultural trade

Using detailed trader surveys in Benin, Madagascar, and Malawi, this paper investigates the presence of increasing returns in agricultural trade. After analyzing margins, costs, and value added, we find little evidence of returns to scale. Motorized transport is found more cost effective for large loads on longer distances. But transporters appear to pool quantities from multiple traders. Margin rates show little relationship with transaction size. Personal travel costs are a source of increasing returns, but the effect is small. Consequently, total marketing costs are nearly proportional to transaction size. Working and network capital are key determinants of value added. Constant returns to scale in all accumulable factors–working capital, labor, and network capital–cannot be rejected. This implies that policies to restrict entry into agricultural trade are neither necessary nor useful. Governments should focus instead on technological and institutional innovations to upgrade agricultural markets.     

Insider trading returns and dividend signals

The literature shows that insider trading activities and dividends contain information content and serve as signals to firm value. If insider return is a proxy for information asymmetry, we should expect a positive relation between dividends and insider returns. Using a sample of unambiguous (good and bad) news concerning earnings and dividend announcements from Hong Kong firms, we show that information asymmetry is stronger for bad news firms with insider sales than good news firms with insider purchases. In addition, we improve the methodology of Khang and King [Khang, K., & King, T. H. D. (2006). Does dividend policy relate to cross-sectional variation in information asymmetry? Evidence from returns to insider trades. Financial Management, 35, 71–94] and provide evidence that dividend is a credible signal for measuring information asymmetry.     

Decentralized resource allocation and increasing returns

We study the possibility of designing a decentralized resource allocation mechanism that yields optimal solutions in economies with increasing returns. After a brief review of the mechanisms already designed to cope with nonconvexities, we find out that either they fail to provide efficient solutions in Koopmans' sense, or else they use extremely complex messages. The question arises whether it is possible to define a nonwasteful and privacy-preserving mechanism over a class of environments with increasing returns using finite-dimensional vectors as messages. We show that the answer is no.     

Buchanan on increasing returns and anticommons

This article discusses Buchanan’s work on increasing returns and anticommons. The two topics have externality as a common element. And size matters in both cases. Increasing returns is a case of positive externalities, the anti-commons is a case of negative externalities. Buchanan demonstrated that a work ethic generates economy-wide benefits in a setting of generalized increasing returns. In contrast, unanimity (in anticommons) can make it more difficult to address other externality problems in analyzing work ethic and moral community. This article provides an overview of both these areas of research.     

On inferior inputs and marginal returns

An input is inferior if and only if an increase in its price raises all marginal productivities. A sufficient condition for input inferiority under quasi-concavity of the production function is then that there are increasing marginal returns with respect to the other input and a non-positive marginal productivity cross derivative. Thus, contrary to widespread opinion, input “competitiveness” is not needed. We discuss these facts and illustrate them by introducing a class of simple production function functional forms. Our results suggest that the existence of inferior inputs is naturally associated with increasing returns, and possibly strengthen the case for inferiority considerably.