Urban job creation and unemployment in LDCs: Todaro vs. Harris and Todaro

Overwhelming urban migration occurred so rapidly in many developing countries that widespread unemployment and squalid living conditions are commonplace. For many of these countries, stopping urban migration has become a major policy. Two models propose 2 different theories of urban unemployment. Todaro's short-term effects model concludes that job creation actually causes unemployment. Todaro and Harris formulated a long-term effects model in which welfare subsidies create more employment and stimulate the economy. A real solution to urban job creation would include optimal allocation of investment between the rural and labor sectors. A once and for all hiring tax would reduce replacement hiring. It is impossible to design an optimal tax subsidy package for urban unemployment unless it includes knowledge of the dynamic response of migration and unemployment to the rate of net and gross hiring of labor. If subsidy taxes are levied on the agricultural sector, the net result may be a higher rate of capital formation in the (low social return) manufacturing sector and a lower one in the agricultural sector.     

Effects of reintegration activities on the Dutch labour market,regarding several levels of education

In the Netherlands during the early nineteen nineties social security administration offices and labour exchange offices decided to co-operate. Goal of this cooperation is to support the reintegration of unemployed people into the labour market and to shorten the individual spells of unemployment. As a result of the cooperation information is available about levels of education of the unemployed. This article primarely focuses on the effects of reintegration activities on the duration of unemployment for different levels of education. Results of the analysis are compared with the human capital theory. Also the question is discussed whether within the framework of the cooperation persons with a higher level of education have shorter spells of unemployment. Finally there is an analysis of the effects of activities undertaken by the unemployed themselves to find a job. People with a university degree have significant longer spells of unemployment. The reintegration activities of the social security administration offices shorten unemployment durations significantly for this group only. Activities undertaken by the unemployed themselves shorten the spells of unemployment for lower educated people (only primary education) and for persons with higher general secondary/secondary/intermediate vocational education as highest completed education.     

Environmental Protection and Trade Liberalization in a Small Open Dual Economy

The author investigates the conditions under which environmental protection and trade liberalization might improve urban unemployment and welfare in a small open Harris–Todaro model with polluting urban manufacturing. While a tariff reduction decreases manufacturing employment, a rise in the pollution tax rate may increase it when a dirty input is complementary to capital. Environmental protection and trade liberalization are consistent in reducing the level of urban unemployment because they lower it under the same condition. They are consistent in increasing GDP if a rise in the pollution tax rate decreases manufacturing employment. Otherwise, trade liberalization will mitigate a decrease in GDP because of environmental protection if the degree of urbanization is low and if rural technology exhibits weak diminishing returns to labor. This GDP effect plays a central role in welfare improvement.     

托达罗模型与中国“知识失业”

当前我国高等教育出现"两高"现象,一方面是愈演愈烈的高"知识失业",一方面是居高不下的对高等教育的高需求,我们不能把它简单理解为一种不合理的现象。根据修正的托达罗模型,只要大学毕业生与非大学毕业生的预期收入差距大于零,接受高等教育就是理性的行为,即使大学毕业生的就业率很低。     

研究生教育扩张、教育报酬与工资不均度——我国台湾地区的实证研究

本文探讨研究生教育扩张后,研究生教育报酬的组成与工资不平等的来源。本文设立大学毕业生与研究生两种劳动市场,并利用台湾"人力运用调查"数据进行实证分析。实证发现,研究生教育扩张对于两类劳动报酬均有显著的正向效果。高等教育劳动的工资不平等主要是两类劳动的组内不平等所致;世代效应是各组工资分配不平等的主要来源,惟年轻的研究生世代之不平等效果已减低。基于分配平等的观点,研究生教育扩张于社会整体有利。     

Rural-urban migration,urban unemployment and underemployment,and job-search activity in LDCs

A quantity adjustment framework is used to analyze unemployment and underemployment in less developed countries (LDCs). The basic premise of the formal theoretical model presented is that the same kinds of forces that explain the choices of workers between the rural and urban sectors can also explain thier choices between 1 labor market and another within an urban area and are most likely made simultaneously. The decision makers, whether family units or individuals, are presumed to consider the various labor market opportunities available to them and to choose the one which maximizes their expected future income. In the model the primary equilibrating force is taken to be the movement of workers between labor markets, not changes in wages. The point of departure is the received theory of rural urban migration in LDS, which is the model of Harris and Todaro (1970). The 1st step is a summary of the basic features of the model. While accepting their basic approach emphasizing movement of workers rather than changes in wages, it is shown that the particular implication of the model with respect to the equilibrium urban unemployment rate substantially overstates the rates actually observed by Turnham (1971) and others. The analysis is then extended to consider several important factors which have previously been neglected--a more generalized approach to the job search process, the possibility of underemployment in the so-called urban "murky sector," preferential treatment by employers of the better educated, and consideration of labor turnover--and demonstrate that the resulting framework gives predictions closer to actual experience. Harris and Todaro in their original discussion concluded that a combination of a wage subsidy in the modern sector and physical restriction of migration would be required to realize a first best state lying on the economy's production possibility frontier. Subsequently Bhagwati and Srinivasan (1974) challenged them and demonstrated that a first best solution can be achieved by means of a variety of alternative tax or subsidy schemes, none of which require migration restriction. This analysis suggests 3 additional policy variables, beyond those considered by either pair, which might be expected to have an important effect on the volume of unemployment and underemployment in LDCs: a smoothly functioning labor exchange would reduce the incentive to remain unemployed while searching for a superior job; the size of the educational system would also influence the amount of unemployment; and it is job hiring in the modern sector, more than the number of jobs, which primarily influences workers' locational decisions.     

Minimum wages and youth unemployment

This paper constructs a labor search model to explore the effects of minimum wages on youth unemployment. To capture the gradual decline in unemployment for young workers as they age, the standard search model is extended so that workers gain experience when employed. Experienced workers have higher average productivity and lower job finding and separation rates that match wage and worker flow data. In this environment, minimum wages can have large effects on unemployment because they interact with a worker's ability to gain job experience. The increase in minimum wages between 2007 and 2009 can account for a 0.8 percentage point increase in the steady state unemployment rate and a 2.8 percentage point increase in unemployment for 15–24 year old workers in the model parameterized to simulate outcomes of high school educated workers. Minimum wages can also help explain the high rates of youth unemployment in France compared to the United States.     

The Coexistence of High Unemployment and Good Economic Performance in Large Open Developing Countries

The Harris–Todaro labor reallocation mechanism is embedded into a North–South trade model and a theoretical model is provided to explain the coexistence of high unemployment and good economic performance as large developing countries become more open to trade. The relative improvement in the total factor productivity of the Southern manufacturing sector is conjectured to give rise to this phenomenon. Although it induces an increase in the demand for labor in the Southern urban areas, this increase in demand is outweighed by an increase in supply brought by the reallocation of labor from rural to urban areas. The final result is higher unemployment. The model is supported by some empirical evidence.     

Unemployment durations of job losers in a labour market in transition

Slovakia is one of the Central European countries in transformation from a centralized command system to a decentralized market economy. This paper studies the labour market position of Slovak job losers. Using data from labour force surveys we analyse exit rates out of unemployment. We find that male, young, higher educated job losers in districts with low unemployment rates have substantially shorter unemployment durations than their counterparts. There is evidence that for some job losers it is very hard to find a new job.     

中国农村劳动力返乡:基于人力资本回报的理论和实证分析

本文借鉴刘易斯二元经济发展模型和托达罗模型,构造了农村劳动力两阶段迁移理论模型,理论分析表明,农村劳动力返乡是理性选择,原因是其人力资本回报在欠发达地区要高于发达地区。随后,本文利用2007年5月调查获得的中西部70个县2353位返乡农村劳动力数据,利用改进后明瑟尔收入模型,比较这个群体在发达地区与欠发达地区的人力资本回报率,验证了理论模型的分析结论。     

Reducing Start‐up Costs for New Firms: The Double Dividend on the Labor Market*

Starting a firm with expansive potential is an option for educated and high‐skilled workers. If there are labor market frictions, this additional option can be seen as reducing the chances of ending up in a low‐wage job and hence as increasing the incentives for education. In a matching model, we show that reducing the start‐up costs for new firms results in higher take‐up rates of education. It also gives rise—through a thick‐market externality—to higher rates of job creation for high‐skilled labor as well as average match productivity. We provide empirical evidence to support our argument.     

Urban job expansion,induced migration and rising unemployment: A formulation and simplified empirical test for LDCs

The purpose of this paper is to develop the conditions under which an autonomous increase in urban job creation designed to eradicate urban unemployment will, in fact, cause the level and rate of unemployment to rise. These conditions are developed using the Todaro model of rural-urban migration for LDCs. Data for 14 LDCs are then examined to see what the elasticities of migration with respect to job probability would have to be in order for the paradox of job creation increasing unemployment to hold. These elasticities are small enough that the paradox can be expected to hold for most LDCs.     

The Role of Education vis-a-vis Job Experience in Explaining the Transitions to Employment in the Spanish Youth Labour Market

It is well known that young cohorts experience higher unemployment rates than their adult counterparts. However, it is less well known that more educated young cohorts may face higher unemployment rates than less educated ones. This seems to be the evidence in some OECD countries such as Spain and Italy. We use data on the Spanish labour market and estimate a duration model for young unemployed people. University graduates’ lack of job experience may explain this puzzling observation.     

Environmental Protection and Urban Unemployment: Environmental Policy Reform in a Polluted Dualistic Economy

This paper explores sufficient conditions for the welfare‐improving environmental policy reform in the Harris–Todaro economy. A rise in the pollution tax rate in the urban manufacturing has spillover effects on the two labor market distortions: the less‐than‐optimal manufacturing employment and the urban unemployment. If both are weakened the welfare improves. Otherwise, we need to develop an alternative sufficient condition. It is shown that there exists a range of welfare‐improving pollution tax rates, and that it corresponds to the lower values of tax rate. This range may shrink by the wage subsidy policy and the technological change toward less pollution‐intensive techniques.     

Sector-specific minimum wages,economic growth,and some policy implications

Economic growth is introduced in the urban unemployment model of Harris and Todaro. It is shown that in the steady state, the optimal savings ratio is greater than the golden rule savings ratio under full employment. Also the optimal proportion of total investment allocated to the urban sector is not necessarily higher than the optimal proportion under full employment.     

A welfare economic analysis of labor market policies in the Harris–Todaro model

This paper presents a welfare economic analysis of the benefits of various labor market policies in the Harris–Todaro labor market model. The policies considered are a policy of modern sector job creation, which I call modern sector enlargement (MSENL); a policy of rural development, which I call traditional sector enrichment (TSENR); and a policy of wage limitation in the urban economy, which I call modern sector wage restraint (MSWR). First, I analyze the inequality effects of these policies. I then perform two welfare economic analyses, the first based on summary measures of labor market conditions (total labor earnings, unemployment, inequality of labor incomes, and poverty rates) and the second based on dominance analysis in the labor market, in both cases assuming that the costs are borne elsewhere. The results of the welfare analyses are compared, and it is shown that TSENR unambiguously increases welfare in the labor market using both approaches, the other policies yield ambiguous results, and no policy is unambiguously welfare-decreasing.     

Urban Pollution,Unemployment and National Welfare in a Dualistic Economy

This paper undertakes a comparative static analysis in the Harris–Todaro (H–T) model by accommodating local pollution. Unlike in the classical H–T model where migration proceeds in response to urban–rural differences in expected earnings, we consider labor movement taking place according to the difference in utility, which is influenced by the quality of the local environment. The paradoxical result is that an improvement in pollution‐abatement technology gives rise to an increase in urban unemployment and has no effect on the workers' aggregate welfare.     

The Prospect of Migration,Sticky Wages,and “Educated Unemployment”

An increase in the probability of work abroad, where the returns to schooling are higher than at home, induces more individuals in a developing country to acquire education, which leads to an increase in the supply of educated workers in the domestic labor market. Where there is a sticky wage rate, the demand for labor at home will be constant. With a rising supply and constant demand, the rate of unemployment of educated workers in the domestic labor market will increase. Thus, the prospect of employment abroad causes involuntary “educated unemployment” at home. A government that is concerned about “educated unemployment” and might therefore be expected to encourage unemployed educated people to migrate will nevertheless, under certain conditions, elect to restrict the extent of the migration of educated individuals.     

The Nature of Unemployment among Young Men in Urban Ethiopia

This paper investigates the nature of unemployment among young men in urban Ethiopia and finds that it is concentrated among relatively well‐educated first‐time job seekers who aspire to a public sector job and spend on average close to four years in unemployment. This is consistent with a segmented labor market model where youngsters queue in unemployment for a good job, as confirmed by an empirical test of the theoretical prediction. We observe a negative (causal) relationship between household welfare and both the incidence and duration of unemployment, indicating that unemployment is concentrated among the relatively worse off urban households, which from a national perspective represent the middle classes, and find suggestive evidence that part of this effect is due to malnutrition during childhood. Job search through social networks is only effective after one has become unemployed, suggesting that networks provide insurance only after exposure to the risk.     

Technical progress,urban unemployment,outputs, and welfare under variable returns to scale

This paper analyzes the implications of technical progress for a small Harris–Todaro (H–T) economy under variable returns to scale (VRS). It is shown that under VRS, technical progress occurring either in the agriculture or the manufacturing may be immiserizing; the effects of technical progress on sectoral outputs, factor prices, urban unemployment, and welfare crucially depend on the signs and the relative magnitudes of sectoral elasticities of returns to scale and the employment effect; the Corden–Findlay type of ultrabiased output effect of technical progress in the constant returns to scale (CRS) H–T model carries over to the case of VRS, but with much more stringent conditions than the CRS case.