Taylor Rule implementation of the optimal policy at the zero lower bound: Does the cost channel matter?

This paper analyzes the implementation of the optimal policies at the Zero Lower Bound (ZLB) by the Taylor rule in the presence of a cost channel. We find that, the presence of a cost channel significantly impairs the ability of the Taylor rule to implement optimal policies when economy is subject to the ZLB. The main findings of the paper are, (i) the Taylor rule with optimally chosen inflation target partially implements the optimal discretionary policy but cannot implement the optimal policy under commitment, and (ii) the T-only policy, which follows discretion after an optimally chosen exit date from the ZLB, is the best that can be implemented by the Taylor rule in the presence of cost channel.     

What's in a second opinion? Shadowing the ECB and the Bank of England

One way of evaluating how well monetary authorities perform is to provide the public with a regular and independent second opinion. The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) are shadowed by professional and academic economists who provide a separate policy rate recommendation in advance of the central bank announcement. In this paper, we systematically evaluate this second opinion and find that, first, the shadow committee of the ECB tends to be relatively less inflation averse than the ECB. In contrast, the shadow committee of the BoE proposes a more hawkish monetary policy stance than the BoE. Second, consensus within a shadow committee is far easier to reach when there is no pressure to change the policy rate. Third, the ECB's shadow committee is more activist than the ECB's Governing Council and a larger degree of consensus within the former brings about a greater likelihood that the two committees will agree.     

Does the presence of high-skilled employees increase total and high-skilled employment in the long run? Evidence from Austria

Studies conducted for the US have found a positive effect of human capital endowments on employment growth, with human capital endowments diverging at the same time. In contrast, studies for European countries have found convergence of human capital endowments. This paper tests these relationships for the 99 Austrian districts for the observation period 1971–2011 by estimating how the presence of high-skilled employment affects total, low-skilled and high-skilled employment growth. To this end, OLS, fixed-effects and first-difference regressions are estimated. The results indicate continuous convergence of high-skilled employment which, however, slowed down significantly since the 1990s. In contrast to previous studies, evidence for positive effects of high-skilled on total and low-skilled employment is only weak and varies over time. Furthermore, the results show that total and high-skilled employment in suburban areas grew faster than in other regions, while districts which bordered the Eastern Bloc were disadvantaged. Nevertheless, spatial neighbourhood effects within Austria are only weak.     

Optimal simple rules and the lower bound on the nominal interest rate in the Christiano–Eichenbaum–Evans model of the US business cycle

Schmitt-Grohé and Uribe (NBER wp 10724, 2004b) analyzes the optimal, simple and implementable monetary policy rules in a medium-scale macromodel, as the one proposed by Christiano et al. (J Polit Econ 113:1–45, 2005). In doing so, they use a sensible, but somewhat arbitrary constraint to account for the lower bound condition on the nominal interest rate. In this work, we check the robustness of their main results to such a criteria. We find that the optimal policies are actually absolutely robust to the easing of this criterion for all the different cases considered.

What drives the choice of the type of partner in R&D cooperation? Evidence for Spanish manufactures and services

We analyse the heterogeneity in firms’ decisions to engage in R&D cooperation, taking into account the type of partner (competitors, suppliers or customers, and research institutions) and the sector to which the firm belongs (manufactures or services). We use information from the Technological Innovation Panel (PITEC) for Spanish firms and estimate multivariate probit models corrected for endogeneity which explicitly consider the interrelations between the different R&D cooperation strategies. We find that placing a higher importance to publicly available information (incoming spillovers), receiving public funding and firm size increase the probability of cooperation with all kind of partners but the role is much stronger in the case of cooperative agreements with research institutions and universities. Our results also suggest that R&D intensity and the importance attributed to the lack of qualified personnel as a factor hampering innovation are key factors influencing positively R&D cooperation activities in the service sector but not in manufactures.     

Formation of the non‐state sector and privatisation in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan

In this paper, we take a detailed look at one Polish bank's experiences with financial sector reforms focusing on a bank-led enterprise-restructuring plan that linked directly bank privatization and recapitalization to bad-debt workouts. Based on personal interviews and original statistical data, we evaluate the performance of Bank Depozytowo-Kredytowy (BDK) in promoting financial and operational restructuring of its clients. We found that BDK continued to provide soft lending to keep four old military‐industrial companies afloat and actually increased its exposure to these companies during the program. The five success stories among BDK's clients were companies that had external agents other than the bank promoting and monitoring their operational restructuring. From our case study of BDK, we conclude that, while banks may play a role in financial restructuring of their clients, their ability to affect operational restructuring is quite limited. Moreover, stateowned banks are particularly vulnerable to incentive problems when dealing with large state-owned enterprises that may be too big or too political to fail.     

Does the presence of professional football cause crime in a city? Evidence from Pontiac,Michigan

Using daily panel data from Detroit, we empirically explore the relationship between the National Football League (NFL) and crime in a city. We exploit the natural experiment of the Detroit Lions’ move from Pontiac, Michigan, to downtown Detroit in 2002. Pontiac is used as the treatment city and non-game day crime, other suburban cities, and other cities outside Detroit MSA are used as the comparison groups. Employing a difference-in-difference approach, we find decreases in assaults and vandalism on home game days in Pontiac relative to the control cities after the Lions’ move. We find weak evidence of a net decrease in larceny and vandalism in Pontiac on home game days following the loss of professional football. No changes in assaults and auto theft are reported. While not conclusive, our results suggest that professional football leads to additional larceny and vandalism incidents but no effects on assaults and auto theft.     

European integration and the legacy of the post‐world war II German expulsions in East‐Central Europe

Efforts towards the formal integration of Poland and the Czech Republic into the European Union have opened the Pandora's box of issues concerning the expulsion of Germans and the confiscation of their property after the Second World War. This paper explains why Sudeten German expellees have been at the forefront of the drive for compensation and property restitution and why Czech‐German relations have been significantly more strained after 1989. As Poland and the Czech Republic prepare to join the EU, the potential for controversy over the involvement of European‐wide institutions in lingering disputes concerning the expulsions as well as over Germans acquiring property in areas formerly part of Germany is also a focus of concern.     

Aggregate production functions,growth economics,and the part‐time tyranny of the identity: a reply to Felipe and McCombie

A recent paper by Jesus Felipe and John McCombie argues that I have understated the importance of the value added identity for conventional estimates of production relationships. This reply seeks to clarify the areas of agreement and disagreement. It suggests that the problems raised by the accounting identity are genuine and deserve to be more widely known, but Felipe and McCombie have sometimes exaggerated the scope of the argument.     

The impact of cross‐ownership on the reaction of corporate investment and financing constraints: A panel threshold model

This paper studies whether or not investment decisions are financially constrained in a cross‐ownership system of Taiwan. Different from the financial structure in the USA, subsidiaries in Taiwan are allowed to buy stocks of the parent companies. Hence, the conventional debt‐to‐equity ratio is inappropriate to divide firms into high and low‐debt firms. Instead, a new threshold variable?–?the adjusted debt–equity ratio (ADE)?–?is employed to divide the sample into high‐debt firms and low‐debt firms. A panel of 115 Taiwan‐listed firms for the period 1991–1997 is used. Evidence supports the cash flow hypothesis and ADE has a notable significant influence on the financial constraints.     

Factor mobility and skilled–unskilled wage inequality in the presence of internationally traded product varieties

Most existing studies examine the issue of skilled–unskilled wage inequality by using models that are relevant only in the long-run. In addition, studies that utilise product variety models assume that varieties of producer services are non-traded. Using a product variety model, this paper examines the issue of the skilled–unskilled wage inequality when producer services are internationally traded. The paper shows that, irrespective of the size of income share of capital, inflow of capital (which can also be interpreted as foreign direct investment) has no effect on skilled–unskilled wage inequality in the short-run. However, in the long-run, inflow of capital can decrease the skilled–unskilled wage inequality. An increase in the price of the agricultural good can decrease the skilled–unskilled wage inequality in the short-run.     

Parameter estimates comparison of earnings functions in the PSID and CPS data, 1976–2007

Comparing earnings equations in the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) and the Current Population Survey, we find that the PSID considerably underestimates the returns to education during the 1992–2007 period. Non-random selection in the PSID sample appears to be the reason.     

What drives the perception of health and safety risks in the workplace? Evidence from European labour markets

Worker perceptions of job-related health risk are a little-studied dimension of heterogeneity in the labour market. According to information from the European Working Conditions Survey (EWCS), one out of three European workers considers that her health and safety is at risk because of work. Not surprisingly, risk perceptions are influenced by objective risk factors such as hazardous working conditions, onerous job characteristics and by the probability to be affected by occupational accidents and illnesses. This paper explores also the role played by personal characteristics and household structure for the explanation of risk perceptions. After controlling for job characteristics, workplace hazards, job satisfaction and health outcomes, I find that risk perceptions are strongly correlated with gender, age, and household structure. Lone parents as well as older and more experienced workers have a higher propensity than other categories to consider their health at risk because of work. The same seems to hold true for better educated workers, especially for those who have completed tertiary education. Further results suggest that the relationship between household structure and risk perception is stable across gender.     

Study on the causes and countermeasures for the dislocation of industrial structure in Three Gorges Region

1. IntroductionIndustrial structure theory, including the forma-tion and development theory of industrial structure,industrial linkage theory, industrial layout theory andso on, mainly studies the composing structure ofindustry, the connection between industries and theconnection between various industries and the wholeeconomy in a certain economy system[1]. Throughstudying the history, status quo and future of in-dustrial structure, it reveals the general trend of theindustrial structure evol…     

Stock return autocorrelations and predictability in the Chinese stock market—Evidence from threshold quantile autoregressive models

This paper applies the threshold quantile autoregressive model to study stock return autocorrelations and predictability in the Chinese stock market from 2005 to 2014. The results show that the Shanghai A-share stock index has significant negative autocorrelations in the lower regime and has significant positive autocorrelations in the higher regime. It attributes that Chinese investors overreact and underreact in two different states. These results are similar when we employ individual stocks. Besides, we investigate stock return autocorrelations by different stock characteristics, including liquidity, volatility, market to book ratio and investor sentiment. The results show autocorrelations are significantly large in the middle and higher regimes of market to book ratio and volatility. Psychological biases can result into return autocorrelations by using investor sentiment proxy since autocorrelations are significantly larger in the middle and higher regime of investor sentiment. The empirical results show that predictability exists in the Chinese stock market.     

From Hero to Zero? The Role of the Euro in the Current Crisis: Theory and some Empirical Evidence

A simple theoretical model of monetary unification and data from 11 euro members are used to investigate the common currency’s role in the macroeconomic performance of these countries. Euro membership has been typically accompanied by lower (or steady) inflation, but also by higher business-cycle volatility. In addition, synchronization of cyclical output was substantially affected by the common currency only in Greece (where it declined considerably) and Finland and Ireland (where it increased). Consistent with the theoretical predictions, the empirical evidence shows a strong negative relationship between cyclical synchronizations and volatilities, which however is not much stronger under the euro than it was during the Maastricht period.     

Spatially induced disparities in users' and non-users' WTP for water quality improvements—Testing the effect of multiple substitutes and distance decay

Costs and benefits of water restoration projects are not necessarily evenly spread out over the entire area affected by the project. The physical distribution of benefits is, therefore, an important parameter when conducting economic analyses of water restoration projects. Two particularly relevant spatial issues relate to 1) the location of the population relative to the location of the waterbody, and 2) the availability and characteristics of substitute water bodies.Based on a contingent valuation (CV) study of the demand for restoring Odense River in Denmark a spatial demand model which accounts for travel time both to the river subject for valuation and to potential substitute sites is estimated. It is concluded that the spatial distribution of benefits is unlikely to be homogeneously determined by a one-dimensional spatial model. Moreover, the results suggest that the effect of spatial issues on preferences varies between users and non-users. For non-users the spatial impacts from potential substitutes significantly reduce demand for improvements in Odense River. This indicates that focus on estimation of distance decay effects may be an important tool in relation to ensuring proper geographical delimitation of the population in a given context.     

Political markets? Politics and economics in the emergence of markets for biodiversity offsets

This paper analyses the relationship between politics and performativity of economics in the emergence of markets for biodiversity offsets. While the role of economics in constructing markets has been demonstrated by sociology and social studies of science, it has also become apparent that politics plays an important role in the material outcome of economic experiments. Two case studies of the creation of markets for biodiversity offsets are analysed, in the United States and England. The findings suggest that the creation of both markets is rooted in the language, concepts and models of economics. Politics, on the other hand, functions as a mediator of the material expression of those models. Through this mediation effect, similar economic models are performed differently, resulting in a variety of markets. This suggests that the material outcomes of processes of market creation are not defined at the outset, but can be influenced by political processes.     

Long swing in appreciation and short swing in depreciation and does the market not know it?—the case of Taiwan

This paper finds an asymmetric swing in Taiwan's exchange rate. In contrast to the developed countries, whose exchange rates exhibit long swings in both appreciation and depreciation regimes, the long swing only exists in an appreciation regime for Taiwan. A short swing, however, is found during a depreciation regime in Taiwan. These results may reflect to some extent the central bank's preference, which is to have a let‐it‐go policy during depreciation and a slowdown policy in appreciation. In addition, it may simply reflect the Japanese yen's influences.