资源约束与地区经济收敛——基于资源稀缺性与资源配置力的考察

本文从资源稀缺性出发,提出并运用资源配置力这一新的分析工具,对2003年以来中国所面临的经济增长、资源约束与区域经济变动状况作了分析。结果表明,市场供求关系变化导致资源稀缺的结构性变迁与地域性转移,使地区资源配置力与经济竞争力发展相应变动。东部沿海能源与矿产等资源短缺地区备受资源约束递增的压力;中西部尤其是能源与矿产等资源富集地区资源配置力与经济竞争力明显递增,从而出现地区经济收敛趋势。     

Natural Resources and Internal Conflict

We present a model of conflict in which each group decides to claim the country’s income and invest in arms or to accept a group neutral allocation of income and not invest in arms. Apart from the usual cooperative or conflictual societies, their strategic choice can result in hierarchically stratified societies in which one group is dominant. We show how the presence and exploitation of certain types of resources matters for the occurrence of conflict or social hierarchical stratification and for the possible effects of trust manipulation. In particular we find that, first, robust (encompassing point and lootable) resource rich economies tend to be conflictual, plantation economies hierarchically stratified and diversified economies cooperative. Second, foreign intervention, aimed at changing the balance of power in the case of conflict, is most effective in robust and diffuse resource rich economies. Third, trust manipulation (as a means to counter conflict) is most effective in subsistence and diffuse resource rich economies. Throughout the article, we cite ample case study and econometric evidence to support our model.     

The Impact of Resource Uncertainty and Intergroup Conflict on Harvesting in the Common-Pool Resource Experiment

How do resource uncertainty and intergroup conflict affect intragroup cooperation over resources in the common pool dilemmas? Does a danger of sudden resource depletion encourage random acts of violence? There are concerns that climate change will escalate conflicts over, and the scarcity of, renewable resources, which are already under threat or in a state of decline. However, we know surprisingly little about the impact of uncertainty on intergroup conflict over resources. In this paper, we present experimental evidence from a mixed design experiment with two-between-group factors: (1) the presence (or absence) of shocks that can destroy a part of resources; and (2) the availability of intergroup conflict. We find that random shocks encourage resource conservation within groups. The positive impact of resource uncertainty on resource conservation disappears in the presence of conflict. It seems that subjects protect themselves from resource exhaustion in the presence of shocks by engaging in conflict and taking resources from the out-group instead of reducing extraction. In general, conflict promotes intragroup cooperation, but this is conditional on the outcomes of past conflicts. In particular, groups harvest more after wins, and only reduce extraction after losing resources in conflict.     

The Ecology of Trade

Trading behavior occurs in many species but has a particularly elaborate form in humans. Trade is defined as the mutually beneficial, adaptive transfer of goods and services between organisms. Trade has a competitive element and responds to changes in relative scarcity. Trade is demonstrated to be a biological phenomenon rather than an artefact of human civilisation. Species’ characteristics that increase the likelihood of trade occurring are outlined. The evolution of trading strategies is most likely in humans and social arthropods. A formal model is presented to show that trade can simultaneously increase consumption among populations and reduce pressure on locally scarce resources. This allows a species to increase its density and escape the constraints imposed by local resource limitations. This represents a major ecological benefit to the trading species. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The evolution of cooperative hierarchies through natural selection processes

According to a bioeconomic model called skew selection, individuals form cooperative hierarchies when coping with high risk environments that include predators and cycles of scarce resources. This paper reports a study that used agent-based computer simulations to experimentally test the predictions of skew selection. Results of the experiment showed that successful face-to-face transaction strategies varied with environmental risks. Risks involving resource scarcity favored clustering and stealing. Risks involving predators favored clustering and hoarding. A combination of risks involving resource scarcity and predators favored clustering and sharing. Wealthy donors gained safety-in-numbers to protect them from predators; at the same time, marginal recipients gained resources to protect them from starving. In summary, our findings show that even though natural selection is not a moral process, it can produce moral behavior.     

Scarcity and appropriative competition

This paper formalizes the commonsensical hypothesis that resource scarcity causes a large allocation of time and effort to appropriative competition. Our main innovation is to model explicitly the positive intertemporal effect of consumption on the probability of survival. The critical assumption is that this effect becomes stronger as resources become scarcer. We also show that anticipated future resource abundance increases the incremental value of survival and, consequently, amplifies the current allocation of time and effort to appropriative competition. Interestingly, if resources are currently scarce, then larger anticipated future abundance can cause a big enough increase in the time and effort allocated to appropriative competition to result in a decrease in the sum of current and expected future utility, a “paradox of anticipated abundance”.     

Resource scarcity,technological progress,and stochastic growth

Will shortages of natural resources constrain economic growth? The answer seems yes, as the amount of natural resources on earth is finite. There can, however, be two excuses for this. First, the resource-saving technological progress might undo resource scarcity. Second, at the country level, countries can import resources from other countries. This paper revisits these two excuses. For technology, not all technological progress is resource-saving, and its arrival is unpredictable. For the import argument, at the global level, the world cannot make up for a shortage of natural resources by importing. Moreover, the amount of resources is difficult to forecast. To address these, I construct the open, stochastic two-sector endogenous growth model with exhaustible resources. I then analytically show that the answer is sensitive to the interaction between technology and resource shocks. In some cases, I find that higher resource uncertainty accelerates the expected growth and improves the welfare of agents.     

Environmental versus Human-Induced Scarcity in the Commons: Do They Trigger the Same Response?

We study appropriation strategies in common pool resources where extinction is a credible threat. Here we present an experimental study of the appropriation of common pool resources in a dynamic setting where resource availability depends on the initial environmental characteristics of the common resource and on human-induced resource depletion due to users’ appropriation patterns. Our results show that initial resource scarcity limits appropriation by inducing an initial caution among users that persists throughout of the game. Additionally, we find that subjects restrain their appropriation strategies when scarcity increases. However, this concern for resource scarcity is not enough to prevent resource depletion. Agents do not counteract the previous rounds’ appropriation strategies but follow the appropriation trend. High appropriation levels are followed by higher appropriation strategies, thus promoting the well known tragedy of the commons. Often concern for resource preservation is not great enough to limit appropriation.      

On conflict over natural resources

This paper considers a game theoretic framework of repeated conflict over natural resource extraction, in which the victory in each engagement is probabilistic and the winner takes all the extracted resource. Every period, each contesting group allocates its capabilities, or power, between resource extraction and fighting over the extracted amount. The probability of victory rises with fighting effort, but a weaker group can still win an encounter. The victorious group wins all of the extracted resources and converts them to power, and the game repeats. In one model, groups openly access the resource. In a variant of the model, the stronger group can access a larger part of the resource than its rival, while in a second variant of the model the advantage of the dominant group is made more decisive than in the first two models. Our models generate outcomes that mimic several aspects of real-world conflict, including full military mobilization, defeats in one or repeated battles, victories following defeats, changes in relative dominance, and surrender. We examine comparative dynamics with respect to changes in the resource attributes, resource extraction, initial power allocation, fighting capabilities, and power accumulation. The policy implications are evaluated, and future research avenues are discussed.     

经济金融化行为的政治经济学分析--一个演化博弈框架

自2008年美国金融危机发生以来,经济金融化成为国内外学界关注的焦点。文章从政治经济学的角度指出了金融化的本质在于资本积累演变为资本脱离剩余价值的生产与交换而通过金融系统实现增殖的过程,进而通过构建一个包含异质性主体的非对称演化博弈模型,揭示了非金融主体与金融主体之间从普通经济关系到金融关系的动态演变过程及其作用机制。研究表明：(1)经济主体之间的动态关系演变表现为非金融企业主要通过金融活动获取利润,金融企业则关注中间业务和表外业务并将普通家庭纳入其体系使之成为新的利润源泉,而普通家庭则被迫接受强势经济主体的二次分利,这些关系的变化将导致一国经济的金融化乃至金融危机。(2)经济发展状态取决于金融主体与非金融主体之间的相互关系,其中,非金融主体行为起主导性作用。在既定假设下,当非金融主体仅通过其资源保护行为影响金融主体的分利技术时,既可以促使一国经济走向新的稳定状态也可促使其走向崩溃;当非金融主体通过其资源保护行为和分利技术影响金融主体的分利技术时,经济可以实现演化稳定状态。(3)经济主体的金融化行为有三个层面的影响：一是经济主体的金融化行为促进经济主体自身在短期内实现高额资本积累;二是金融主体的分利行为与非金融主体的生产行为经常呈现对立的经济关系并容易被激化;三是没有政府介入的自由市场必然导致矛盾激化而陷入危机。因此,深入理解经济金融化问题的本质及其对经济的影响机制,对当前中国的经济转型和金融改革都具有重要意义。     

科技资源配置效率影响因素组态与路径研究——基于中国内地30个省市的QCA分析

科技资源配置效率作为衡量区域创新能力的重要指标,是当前深化要素配置市场化改革的重点。运用模糊集定性比较分析法对中国内地30个省市级数据进行实证分析,从整体性视角揭示影响科技资源配置效率的条件因素组态。结果发现：单个要素不构成科技资源配置效率提升的阻碍因素,但科研机构发展水平、产业结构调整、研发机构R&D经费支出在促进科技资源配置效率提升方面发挥较为普遍的作用;存在6条关键路径可以提升科技资源配置效率,包括开拓型、产业升级助推型、科研机构驱动型、产业升级与科研机构发展双轮驱动型、科研机构主导逻辑下的高校驱动型、市场和研发机构双元主导逻辑下的多元主体合力驱动型。因此,为全面提升科技资源配置效率,可以结合自身资源禀赋和条件因素选择不同的实现路径。     

Reputation,Social Identity and Social Conflict

We interpret the psychology literature on social identity and examine its implications. We model a population of agents from two exogenous and well defined social groups. Agents are randomly matched to play a reduced‐form bargaining game. We show that this struggle for resources drives a conflict through the rational destruction of surplus. We assume that the population contains both rational players and behavioral players. Behavioral players aggressively discriminate against members of the other social group. The existence and specification of the behavioral player is motivated by the social identity literature. For rational players, group membership has no payoff‐relevant consequences. We show that rational players can contribute to the conflict by aggressively discriminating and that this behavior is consistent with existing empirical evidence. Our paper relates to the empirical literature which finds that social heterogeneity tends to be increasing in economic variables which we interpret as indicating inefficiency. We provide an explanation that, as social groups compete for surplus, disagreement and inefficiency can result. Our work also relates to the social conflict literature, which examines the relationship between macro level factors such as unemployment and civil disturbances. This literature finds that the amount of social conflict tends to be increasing in the inequitability of the environment.     

Adaptation and Mitigation in Global Pollution Problems: Economic Impacts of Productivity, Sensitivity, and Adaptive Capacity

This paper studies the influence of productivity, pollution sensitivity, and adaptive capacity on optimal mitigation and adaptation in a two-country global pollution model. We investigate the effects of changes of these parameters on the allocation of emissions, adaptation expenditures, and welfare. In our analysis we distinguish between cooperative and non-cooperative behavior. Our findings imply that unilateral improvements in productivity and adaptive capacity have strategic significance and do not necessarily lead to mutual welfare improvements. They raise the emissions not only in the country where the technological improvement takes place, but also globally. An improvement in global welfare is guaranteed only under cooperative behavior with respect to emission and adaptation choices.     

On the escalation and de-escalation of conflict

We introduce three extensions of the Hirshleifer–Skaperdas conflict game to study experimentally the effects of post-conflict behavior and repeated interaction on the allocation of effort between production and appropriation. Without repeated interaction, destruction of resources by defeated players can lead to lower appropriative efforts and higher overall efficiency. With repeated interaction, appropriative efforts are considerably reduced because some groups manage to avoid fighting altogether, often after substantial initial conflict. To attain peace, players must first engage in costly signaling by making themselves vulnerable and by forgoing the possibility to appropriate the resources of defeated opponents.     

Hydro-economic river basin modelling: The application of a holistic surface-groundwater model to assess opportunity costs of water use in Spain

Combined hydro-economic models of river basins are fundamental tools for assessing management and infrastructure strategies to improve the economic efficiency of water use in a context of competition over scarce water resources. Integrated hydro-economic models have to be capable to properly reproduce the physical behavior of the system, with a realistic representation of the different surface and groundwater resources, including their interaction, and the spatial and temporal variability of resource availability. On the other hand, such models must incorporate the value of water for different urban, agricultural and industrial uses and users. Economic values for water use are defined according to the marginal residual value of water for production (for agricultural and industrial uses) or the aggregated willingness-to-pay (WTP) for urban supply and other final water uses. In this paper, we present a systematic approach to estimate the marginal economic value of surface and groundwater resources at different locations within a complex water resources system. Based on a holistic conjunctive optimization model applied to the Adra river system in Spain we asses the total and marginal opportunity costs of capacity and operation constraints, including the opportunity cost of imposing environmental constraints on water use as foreseen in future Spanish water policy following the implementation of the European Water Framework Directive. The resulting opportunity costs provide important information to water managers about economic inefficiencies of current water allocation policy or infrastructure design, and about the resource opportunity costs to be considered in the design of efficient pricing policies in regions with water scarcity issues.     

从经济学及博弈角度分析环境污染

环境资源是一种公共资源,是典型的公共财产,其特点表现为产权规定不明晰、外部性及资源配置的市场失灵,这些特性导致环境资源的过渡使用、环境污染、生态破坏。从博弈角度分析:环境污染事实上是囚徒困境;污染治理的方法是大型企业采取内部治理,小型企业通过税收政府集中治理。     

Does mother nature punish rotten kids?

The theory of parent-offspring conflict predicts that mothers and their offspring may not agree about how resources should be allocated among family members. An offspring, for example, may favor a later weaning date than does its mother. Despite a parent's physical superiority, it may be that offspring are able to manipulate their parents' behavior. In this paper, we investigate a two-locus population genetic model of weaning conflict in which offspring can attempt to extort resources from their parents by reducing their own chances of survival if their demands are not met. We find that the frequency of recombination between the genes controlling maternal behavior and those controlling juvenile behavior determines the evolutionary outcome of this genetic conflict. When these genes are tightly linked, the mother will be able to get her way. When they are not, offspring can successfully 'blackmail' their parents into providing additional resources.     

Management of non-timber forestry products extraction: Local institutions, ecological knowledge and market structure in South-Eastern Zimbabwe

Common-pool resources (CPRs), such as forests, water resources and rangelands, provide a wide variety of economic benefits to forest-fringe dwellers in semi-arid areas of southern Africa. However, the public nature and competition involved in the use of these goods, and weak enforcement of institutional arrangements governing their use may lead to resource degradation. Using survey data from four communities in south-eastern Zimbabwe for 2008 and 2009, this paper examines the extent to which forest degradation is driven by existing common property management regimes resource and user characteristics, ecological knowledge and marketing structure. A Principal Component Analysis indicates that the existence of agreed-upon rules governing usage (including costs of usage), enforcement of these rules, sanctions for rule violations that are proportional to the severity of rule violation, social homogeneity, and strong beliefs in ancestral spirits were the most important attributes determining effectiveness of local institutions in the management of CPRs. Empirical results from a regression analysis showed that resource scarcity, market integration, and infrastructural development lead to greater resource degradation, while livestock income, high ecological knowledge, older households, and effective local institutional management of the commons reduce resource degradation. The results suggest that there is need for adaptive local management systems that enhance ecological knowledge of users and regulates market structure to favour long-term livelihood securities of these forest-fringe communities.     

Strategic planning of optimal resource allocation in response to global financial crisis – a study of international tourist hotels

This study is principally designed to examine the changes in the efficiency, effective resource allocation and future operation strategies of Taiwan's international tourist hotel in global economic downturn. At first, we set up critical input and output factors and construct an assessment model using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) for analysis of relative efficiency. Further, we apply an allocative efficiency model for additional considerations of each input cost and analyse proper and effective resource allocation. Finally, there are significant changes in overall efficiency of international tourist hotels under global financial crisis. We can also reach an effective allocation of the overall resources. In such cases, lowering cost has become a key issue for sustainable operation of international tourist hotel. Finally, the greatest contribution of this study is to further classify the competitiveness and optimal cost allocation of Taiwan's international tourist hotels into seven categories based on the study results and propose strategic planning of future operations for hotel administrators’ reference in making improvements in the future.     

我国体育资源配置中的政府行为研究

我国政府在体育资源配置过程中存在以下问题：政府对公共体育资源配置不力;在当前市场并未失灵的情况下政府过多介入非公共体育资源配置;相关体育法律法规已不适应新时期体育资源配置的要求等。针对以上问题,提出相应对策：建议非公共体育资源的配置主要依靠市场行为来完善,相关行政部门行使其经济职能;顺应行政机构改革大潮流,完善体育行政机构功能,明确相关职责;相关行政机构应依法行使体育资源配置职能。