Resource scarcity,technological progress,and stochastic growth

Will shortages of natural resources constrain economic growth? The answer seems yes, as the amount of natural resources on earth is finite. There can, however, be two excuses for this. First, the resource-saving technological progress might undo resource scarcity. Second, at the country level, countries can import resources from other countries. This paper revisits these two excuses. For technology, not all technological progress is resource-saving, and its arrival is unpredictable. For the import argument, at the global level, the world cannot make up for a shortage of natural resources by importing. Moreover, the amount of resources is difficult to forecast. To address these, I construct the open, stochastic two-sector endogenous growth model with exhaustible resources. I then analytically show that the answer is sensitive to the interaction between technology and resource shocks. In some cases, I find that higher resource uncertainty accelerates the expected growth and improves the welfare of agents.     

A multi-stage race model with strategic interaction: An agent-based simulation approach

We consider a multi-stage race characterized by technological uncertainty and winner-take-all stakes. A number of studies have found that players in such a race tend to behave strategically by adjusting their effort levels according to their relative ranks. The aim of the present study was to examine the dynamics and the results of such interaction. For this purpose, we employed an agent-based computational approach that enabled us to better understand the dynamics of a race, particularly those in which players exhibit heterogeneous behaviors. The results found that strategic interaction decreases the total cost but also results in delaying the completion of a race. Also, it was discovered, larger budgets rather than strategy differences have more significant effects on the probability of players winning a race. Finally, our study suggested that early preemption is an effective strategy that can improve the probability of winning races substantially.     

Regional economic development and environmental repercussions: An environmental input-output approach

This study attempts to examine issues related to the existing adverse relationship between regional economic development and natural environment protection. For doing so, a regional environmental input-output model for the region of central Macedonia in northern Greece is constructed in order to quantify the direct and indirect undesirable negative effects of the production process in the natural environment. The results suggest that there is a considerable trade-off between economic development and environmental deterioration which should be taken into account when policy decisions are made. This paper benefitted from comments by the participants of the Forty-Seventh International Atlantic Economic Conference, Vienna, Austria, March 16–23, 1999.     

Resource harvesting regulation and enforcement: An evolutionary approach

We study the evolution of compliance and regulation of a renewable common pool resource, a fishery in particular, with appropriators whose decision on whether to comply or not with harvesting quotas is the result of imitation described by a proportional rule. The regulator first sets the optimal quota and then harvesters can choose between compliance and violation. We investigate myopic regulation and optimal regulation regimes with a proportional fine and an endogenized probability of audit. The outcome of regulation is characterized in terms of monomorphic and polymorphic steady states with respect to compliance. Using numerical simulations stability properties are examined, and sensitivity analysis explores the effect of various parameters on polymorphic steady-state outcomes.     

资源约束与地区经济收敛——基于资源稀缺性与资源配置力的考察

本文从资源稀缺性出发,提出并运用资源配置力这一新的分析工具,对2003年以来中国所面临的经济增长、资源约束与区域经济变动状况作了分析。结果表明,市场供求关系变化导致资源稀缺的结构性变迁与地域性转移,使地区资源配置力与经济竞争力发展相应变动。东部沿海能源与矿产等资源短缺地区备受资源约束递增的压力;中西部尤其是能源与矿产等资源富集地区资源配置力与经济竞争力明显递增,从而出现地区经济收敛趋势。     

Overcoming environmental scarcity,inequality and structural imbalance in the world economy

The world economy faces two major threats: increasing environmental degradation and a growing gap between rich and poor. The root cause is that natural resources—or natural capital—is underpriced, and hence overly exploited, whereas human capital—the skills embodied in the workforce—is insufficient to meet demand. This outcome has three important consequences. First, all sectors of an economy will use too much natural resources relative to skilled labor. Second, the skilled workers throughout the economy will have higher real incomes and thus will be better off. Third, wealth inequality will increase, as the income gap between skilled and unskilled workers widens. Addressing this structural imbalance requires correcting the two underlying distortions, which are the chronic under-pricing of natural capital and the under-investment in human capital. This must be accompanied by a new suite of policies to provide improved incentives for more balanced wealth creation.     

Defining and exploring the terrorism field: Toward an intertheoretic, agent-based approach

Drawing upon organizational design, contingency, and field theory, we outline a conceptual model for studying terrorism at the field level and argue that existing computational organizational theory could be extended to enable such inquiry. We introduce the terrorism field as the system of dynamic interaction between the terrorism, counterterrorism and political governance industries, defining the overarching functions of each. We then argue that intertheoretic, field-level inquiry could lead to explicit conceptual and computational models with significant benefits for researchers and policy makers, to include enhancing understanding of the proximate environmental conditions that are deleterious to the use of terrorism by political challengers. Using POW-ER, an illustrative field-level case of a basic terrorist attack is then modeled based on two archetypes of terrorist organizational forms emerging from the new terrorism debate: 1) hierarchy and 2) network, and two treatments: 1) applying counterterrorism techniques and 2) reducing knowledge within the terrorist organization. Preliminary findings compared to the baseline case are discussed, as well as implications for future research.     

Income inequality,consumer debt,and prudential regulation: An agent-based approach to study the emergence of crises and financial instability

The paper presents an agent-based model to study the interaction between income inequality and prudential regulations in a macroeconomic framework characterized by consumer debt. Simulation results show that income inequality is detrimental to both macro and financial stability as it leads to higher credit demands, higher unemployment rates, economic volatility, and financial fragility. Besides the importance of consumers' leveraging, deleveraging externalities are found to be equally important for the emergence of crises and financial fragility because of the liquidity risk they entail. Minsky moments are also observed; they are related to consumers' prudential behavior and their beliefs about the macroeconomic conditions. Concerning the policy relevance of our investigation, simulations allow us to highlight that the effectiveness of prudential regulation depends on the phase of the business cycle and that there is not a “one-size-fits-all” regulation. This study emphasizes that regulatory constraints should take into account the features of the economic agents, such as the distribution of income and their willingness to borrow, in addition to the features of the financial sector.     

Collective behavior and options volatility smile: An agent-based explanation

This paper represents an initial effect to shed light on the determinants of option implied volatility smile from the micro perspective of traders' behavior. We compare the zero intelligence behavior and the collective behavior with the agent-based simulation. We find that the constant implied volatility, which is the assumption of the Black–Scholes model, can be obtained under the environment of the zero intelligence traders; while the smile shape of implied volatility, which is more consistent with the practical option market worldwide, can be explained by traders' collective behavior. Moreover, different degrees of collective behavior are tested to result that with the increasing of collective degree the implied volatility curve becomes steeper.     

Validation in agent-based models: An investigation on the CATS model

In this paper we deal with some validation experiments on the complex adaptive trivial system (CATS) model proposed in Gallegati et al. [Gallegati, M., Giulioni, G., Palestrini, A., Delli Gatti, D., 2003a. Financial fragility, patterns of firms’ entry and exit and aggregate dynamics. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 51, 79–97; Gallegati, M., Delli Gatti, D., Di Guilmi, C., Gaffeo, E., Giulioni, G., Palestrini, A., 2005. A new approach to business fluctuations: heterogeneous interacting agents, scaling laws and financial fragility. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 56, 489–512]. In particular starting from a sample of Italian firms included in the AIDA database, we perform several ex post validation experiments over the simulation period 1996–2001. In the experiments, the model parameters have been estimated using actual data and the initial set up consists of a sample of agents in 1996. The CATS model is then simulated over the period 1996–2001. Using alternative validation techniques, the simulations’ results are ex post validated respect to the actual data.     

Competition as market progress: An Austrian rationale for agent-based modeling

Economists recognize competition as fundamental to economic science. General equilibrium is not competition; Austrians, like other economists, have sometimes confused the two. The socialist calculation debate and the elimination of competition by socialists in the Soviet Union offer insight into danger of using an equilibrium framework to study competition. Current policy models are based on a general equilibrium framework, but heterogeneous interactive agent-based models are rising to challenge them. Austrian economists should embrace this new direction and guide the creation of agent-based models of the economy.     

Incentives and managerial effort under competitive pressure: An experiment

We investigate how increased competition affects firm owners׳ incentives and managers׳ efforts in a laboratory experiment. Each owner offers a compensation scheme to his manager in two different conditions: under monopoly and under Cournot duopoly. Following acceptance of the compensation, the manager chooses an effort level to increase the probability of a cost-reduction which affects the firm׳s profit. According to standard theoretical predictions the entry of a rival firm in a monopolistic industry affects negatively both the incentive compensation and the effort level. Our experimental findings show that the entry of a rival firm has two effects on managerial effort: an internalization effect which affects positively the level of effort and an income effect which has a negative impact on effort. The combined outcome of these two effects is neutral with respect to managerial effort: we observe that when competition reduces the firm׳s profit, the owner reacts by offering lower incentives but despite the lower incentives the manager still accepts the contract offer and exerts the same level of effort than under the monopoly condition.     

Rock around the clock: An agent-based model of low- and high-frequency trading

We build an agent-based model to study how the interplay between low- and high-frequency trading affects asset price dynamics. Our main goal is to investigate whether high-frequency trading exacerbates market volatility and generates flash crashes. In the model, low-frequency agents adopt trading rules based on chronological time and can switch between fundamentalist and chartist strategies. By contrast, high-frequency traders activation is event-driven and depends on price fluctuations. High-frequency traders use directional strategies to exploit market information produced by low-frequency traders. Monte-Carlo simulations reveal that the model replicates the main stylized facts of financial markets. Furthermore, we find that the presence of high-frequency traders increases market volatility and plays a fundamental role in the generation of flash crashes. The emergence of flash crashes is explained by two salient characteristics of high-frequency traders, i.e., their ability to i. generate high bid-ask spreads and ii. synchronize on the sell side of the limit order book. Finally, we find that higher rates of order cancellation by high-frequency traders increase the incidence of flash crashes but reduce their duration.     

Loss aversion and social security: a general equilibrium approach

Introducing an intertemporal model of loss aversion, I study the role of social security in determining intergenerational redistribution when consumers have reference-dependent preferences with loss aversion. Using a unified social security model in which different social security plans are specified via different degrees of fundedness, I examine the effect of the transition from a less funded system to a more funded one on savings, consumption, and capital accumulation for an OLG production economy. A general equilibrium analysis shows that the direction of intertemporal equilibrium is dependent on how the total savings responds to the interest rate change, but the effect of the payroll tax on capital accumulation is ambiguous. By deriving closed-form solutions, I find that an increase in fundedness intensity unambiguously increases capital accumulation in steady states, while the tax effects on consumption and savings are not conclusive. Moreover, simulation exercises show that when consumers are prone to over-consume because they care more about the contemporaneous gain utility, the fully funded system may help the individuals smooth out their lifecycle consumption.     

An environmental assessment of future production-related technological change: 1970–2000 (An input-output approach)

This paper develops a technique, or model, to systematically assess the environmental impact of specific technological changes forecast to occur over this and the next two decades. The core of the model is a dynamic technical coefficient matrix of a large input-output model. The technological change considered is that which affects the coefficients of this matrix and thus the distribution of material inputs over time into the various sectors of the U.S. economy. An environmental assessment of this production-related technological change is achieved through a submodel that registers production residuals on an industry basis for 14 waste categories.     

Growing Silicon Valley on a landscape: an agent-based approach to high-tech industrial clusters

We propose a Nelson-Winter model with an explicitly defined landscape to study the formation of high-tech industrial clusters such as those in Silicon Valley. The existing literature treats clusters as the result of location choices and focuses on how firms may benefit from locating in a cluster. We deviate from this tradition by emphasizing that high-tech industrial clusters are characterized by concentrated entrepreneurship. We argue that the emergence of clusters can be explained by the social effect through which the appearance of one or a few entrepreneurs inspire many followers locally. Agent-based simulation is employed to show the dynamics of the model. Data from the simulation and the properties of the model are discussed in light of empirical regularities. Variations of the model are simulated to study policies that are favorable to the high-tech economy.JEL Classification: L11, R12This paper has been presented at the 9th International Schumpeter Society Conference in Gainesville, Florida, the Western Economic Associations 77th Annual Conference in Seattle, Washington, the 24th Annual Research Conference of the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management in Dallas, Texas, and the Workshop on Industry and Labor Dynamics: The Agent-Based Computational Economics Approach in Turin, Italy. I would like to thank Rob Axtell, Giovanni Dosi, Olav Sorenson, and an anonymous referee for their comments, suggestions, and encouragement. I am grateful to Nikesh Patel for his superb assistance.     

The co-evolution of tax evasion,social capital and policy responses: a theoretical approach

The dynamic model presented in this paper intends to account for the evidence, which appears to be particularly significant for Italy, of the incidence of tax evasion in a certain region being negatively correlated with the level of social capital existing in that region. Besides including social capital among the determinants of tax evasion, we extend the model so as to incorporate a mechanism whereby the existing volume of opportunistic behavior—which is proxied by the level of tax evasion—has negative effects on the formation of new social capital, thus helping to explain how regional differences in the endowment of social capital and in the incidence of tax evasion co-evolve and why they tend to be highly persistent. The model seeks also to capture the fact that in a democracy the political determination necessary to effectively repress tax evasion depends on the voters’ propensity toward the phenomenon. Hence, one should expect that–in areas where a relatively large (small) number of citizens are tax cheaters—the consensus in favor of tough policies against tax evasion tends to be weak (strong) and short (long) lasting. Consistently with this intuition, the model shows that regions where social capital is relatively low and tax evasion is relatively high can do better in the long run (i.e., they can reach a steady state characterized by a higher level of social capital and a lower level of tax evasion) when tax-enforcement policies are determined at the national level rather than at the regional level. The opposite holds for regions where social capital is relatively high and tax evasion is relatively low.