Causal Linkages among the Product Diversification of Exports,Economic Globalization and Economic Growth

This paper examines causal relationships between economic globalization, the three indices for product diversification of exports (Theil index, intensive margin and extensive margin) and economic growth in the unbalanced panel data framework in 139 countries over the period 1970–2010. We also consider the subgroup of the countries related to the income levels and run the panel Granger non‐causality tests for heterogeneous panels. The empirical results indicate that there is a bidirectional causal relationship between economic globalization and economic growth. There is also a significant causal relationship that runs from all three indices for the diversification of exports to economic growth. After implementing various robustness checks, we observe that diversification of exports and economic globalization are positively related with economic growth merely in the upper middle economies.     

Export-led Growth in South Asia: A Panel Cointegration Analysis

Abstract

In this paper, we attempt to examine the export-led and manufacturing export-led growth hypothesis for four South Asian Countries; namely, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, using Pedroni’s panel cointegration technique for the period 1980–2002. In this context we estimate growth accounting equations to investigate the impact of exports, manufacturing exports and other important physical and human capital variables on both total GDP and non-export GDP. The study finds long-run equilibrium relationship between GDP (and non-export GDP) and exports along with other variables supporting export-led growth hypothesis. The results also substantiate the existence of manufacturing export-led growth hypothesis. Further, we find that export, fixed capital formation, public expenditure on health and education have statistically significant coefficients re-emphasizing the importance of these variables for higher economic growth.     

CO2 emissions in Australia: economic and non-economic drivers in the long-run

Australia has sustained a relatively high economic growth rate since the 1980s compared to other developed countries. Per capita CO₂ emissions tend to be highest amongst OECD countries, creating new challenges to cut back emissions towards international standards. This research explores the long-run dynamics of CO₂ emissions, economic and population growth along with the effects of globalization tested as contributing factors. We find economic growth is not emission-intensive in Australia, while energy consumption is emissions intensive. Second, in an environment of increasing population, our findings suggest Australia needs to be energy efficient at the household level, creating appropriate infrastructure for sustainable population growth. High population growth and open migration policy can be detrimental in reducing CO₂ emissions. Finally, we establish globalized environment has been conducive in combating emissions. In this respect, we establish the beneficial effect of economic globalization compared to social and political dimensions of globalization in curbing emissions.     

Does globalization affect growth? Evidence from a new index of globalization

The study develops an index of globalization covering its three main dimensions: economic integration, social integration, and political integration. Using panel data for 123 countries in 1970–2000 it is analysed empirically whether the overall index of globalization as well as sub-indexes constructed to measure the single dimensions affect economic growth. As the results show, globalization indeed promotes growth. The dimensions most robustly related with growth refer to actual economic flows and restrictions in developed countries. Although less robustly, information flows also promote growth whereas political integration has no effect.     

Structural change and foreign direct investment: globalization and regional economic integration

This paper investigates flows of inward and outward foreign direct investment (FDI) and FDI-to-GDP ratios in a sample of 62 countries over a 30 year time span. Using several endogenous structural break procedures (allowing for one and two break points), we find that: (1) the great majority of the series have structural breaks in the last 15 years, (2) post-break FDI and FDI/GDP ratios are substantially higher than the pre-break values, and (3) most breaks seem to be related to globalization, regional economic integration, economic growth, or political instability. Static and dynamic panel-data analyses accounting for and/or addressing endogeneity, simultaneity, nonstationarity, heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence show that FDI is negatively related to exchange rate volatility and GDP per capita, but positively related to some regional integration agreements, trade openness, GDP, and GDP growth. Most notably, the European Union is the only regional economic integration unit found to consistently have significant and positive effects on FDI.     

Trade liberalization and economic growth: a case study of Iran

We estimate the impact of trade liberalization and physical and human capital accumulation on Iran’s economic growth during the period 1959?2007. Using co-integration techniques and a vector error correction model, we find a unique long-run relationship between economic growth and its major determinants. These determinants include the physical and human capital stock, the labor force, real non-oil exports, and import tariffs. In addition, the short-term error correction dynamics analysis suggests that trade liberalization has a significant long run positive role in dynamic of growth. Our results support the view that the integration of the Iranian economy with the world economy is undoubtedly welfare improving.     

Borders and Growth

This paper presents a framework to understand and measure the effects of political borders on economic growth and per capita income levels. In our model, political integration between two countries results in a positive country size effect and a negative effect through reduced openness vis-à-vis the rest of the world. Additional effects stem from possible changes in other growth determinants, besides country size and openness, when countries are merged. We estimate the growth effects that would have resulted from the hypothetical removal of national borders between pairs of adjacent countries under various scenarios. We identify country pairs where political integration would have been mutually beneficial. We find that full political integration would have slightly reduced an average country's growth rate, while most countries would benefit from a more limited form of merger, involving higher economic integration with their neighbors.     

Globalization and growth in the low income African countries with the extreme bounds analysis

The relationship between globalization and economic growth, especially in the poorer developing countries, is controversial. Previous studies have used single globalization indicators such as the ratio of exports plus imports to GDP. This paper uses a comprehensive measure of a globalization of Dreher (2006), which is based on measures of globalization of the economic, social and political sectors. Panel data estimates with data of 21 low income African countries show a small but significant positive permanent growth effects. The sensitivity of this growth effect is examined with the extreme bounds analysis (EBA). Contrary to the findings by Levine and Renelt (1992) that cross-country growth relationships are fragile, the effects of globalization and some other determinants of the long run growth rate are found to be robust by EBA.     

Exchange rate volatility–economic growth nexus in Uganda

The global financial crisis has disrupted trade and capital flows in most developing economies, resulting in an increased volatility of exchange rates. We develop an autoregressive distributed lag model to investigate the effect of exchange rate volatility on economic growth in Uganda. Using data spanning the period 1960–2011, we find that exchange rate volatility positively affects economic growth in Uganda in both the short run and the long run. However, in the short run, political instability negatively moderates the exchange rate volatility–economic growth nexus. These results are robust to alternative specifications of the economic growth model.     

The new goods margin in new markets

We analyze the role of the new goods margin in the Baltic countries’ exports and imports growth during the 1995–2008 period. Using the methodology developed in Kehoe and Ruhl (2013), we define the set of least-traded goods as those that account for the lowest 10% of total exports and imports in 1995, and then trace its growth in several markets including the Baltics’ main trade partners, the European Union and Russia. We find that, on average, by 2008 least-traded goods accounted for nearly 50% of total Baltic exports to their main trade partners. Moreover, we find that increases in the share of least-traded exports coincided with the timing of the trade liberalization reforms implemented by the Baltic countries. Least-traded imports also grew at robust rates, but their growth was lower than that of exports, accounting for slightly less than a quarter of total imports, that is, about half of the exports value. Moreover, we find that the shares of least-traded imports from the EU 15 and from Russia started diverging around the time the Baltic countries joined the EU, with the EU 15 share increasing and the Russian one declining. We also find that the Baltics’ share of least-traded exports outpaced that of other economies in Central and Eastern Europe. Finally, exports of new goods from the Baltic countries suffered noticeably during the Global Financial Crisis. After the crisis ended, the restart in new goods exports growth displayed mixed patterns.     

Preferential trade agreements and manufactured goods exports: does it matter whom you PTA with?

This article explores two questions. First, do preferential trade agreements (PTAs) affect manufactured goods exports of developing countries? Second, does it matter for developing countries whom they sign the PTAs with? We find that the answer to both questions is yes. Using bilateral manufactured goods exports data from 28 developing countries during 1978–2005; we find that South–South PTAs have a significantly positive effect on manufactured goods exports. In contrast, no such effect is detected in the case of South–North PTAs. We confirmed the robustness of these findings to estimation methodology, sample selection, time period, zero trade flows and multilateral trade resistance.     

Globalization, rent protection institutions, and going alone in freeing trade

We construct a two-country North-South Product-cycle model of trade with endogenous growth and trade barriers. We remove the scale effects on growth by incorporating rent protection activities by Northern incumbents. We examine the effects of two forms of globalization - an expansion of the relative size of the South and unilateral trade liberalization by either country. We find that the location of rent protection institutions and the sectoral trade structure determine whether or not globalization raises steady-state economic growth. We demonstrate that for accelerating worldwide economic growth, contrary to conventional wisdom, unilateral Northern trade liberalization is preferable to bilateral trade liberalization.     

Economic integration and political accountability

This paper studies to what extent economic integration, or globalization, influences the accountability of politicians. Assuming that politicians are controlled by the voters through reelection rules, we analyze to what extent economic integration affects the form of those rules and the efforts made by politicians. We define economic integration by the existence of policies and shocks interdependences between countries. Then, from a political point of view, this integration is shown to be a two-sided phenomenon. Shock-interdependence allows yardstick comparison, increases political accountability and therefore efforts while policy-interdependence induces a lack of responsibility and harms the extent to which politicians can be controlled.     

The political economy of exchange rate regimes in developed and developing countries

This paper examines the influence of government ideology, political institutions and globalization on the choice of exchange rate regime via panel multinomial logit approach using annual data over the period of 1974-2004 in a panel of 180 countries: 26 developed and 154 developing.We provide evidence that government ideology, political institutions and globalization are important determinants of the choice of exchange rate regime. In particular, we find that left-wing governments, democratic institutions, central bank independence and financial development increase the likelihood of choosing a flexible regime, whereas more globalized countries have a higher probability of implementing a fixed regime. More importantly, we find that political economy factors have different effects on the choice of exchange rate regime in developed and developing countries. All our results are robust to panel ordered probit model.     

The impact of macroeconomic factors on income inequality: Evidence from the BRICS

In this paper we investigate how the evolution of income growth, real interest rates, and inflation have driven income inequality across a variety of countries with particular focus on the BRICS economies (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) during the period 2001 to 2015. Our work suggests that, when central banks of the BRICS economies use monetary policy for macroeconomic stabilization, they need to consider the impact monetary policy changes have on the distribution of income in their nations. Our estimates reveal that the unintended consequence of policies that induce economic growth and higher prices is higher income inequality. We find that the positive relationship between the three macroeconomic variables and income inequality for the BRICS economies is stronger during the post-2008 period.     

Export sophistication and economic growth: Evidence from China

We consider the effect of export sophistication on economic performance by appealing to regional variation within one single country (China) over the 1997-2009 period. We find evidence in support of Hausmann, Hwang and Rodrik (2007), in that regions specializing in more sophisticated goods subsequently grow faster. We find substantial variation in export sophistication at the province and prefecture level, controlling for the level of development, and that this sophistication in turn drives growth. Our results suggest that these gains are limited to the ordinary export activities undertaken by domestic firms: no direct gains result from either processing trade activities or foreign firms, even though these are the main contributors to the global upgrading of China's exports. As such, the extent of assembly trade and foreign entities should be distinguished in order to measure the true movement in a country's technology and the contribution of exports to economic growth.     

The Southeast Asian Economies in the Age of Discontent

This paper investigates the effects on and responses of five middle‐income Southeast Asian economies to the current global environment of authoritarian populism, the retreat from economic liberalism, and the appeal of anti‐globalization movements. While the political histories and institutional capabilities of the five – Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam – vary greatly, these economies have a history of at least moderately fast economic growth for extended periods, and of increasing regional and global economic integration. We argue that most of the factors behind the discontent with globalization in the rich economies are not present to the same degree in these countries, and that there has therefore been no major retreat from the economic policy settings that have underpinned their past economic success. However, there are no grounds for complacency. Economic growth is slowing in some of the countries, economic insecurity remains widespread, and the development of durable independent institutions has lagged economic growth.     

中国经济增长、外商直接投资和出口贸易的互动实证分析

本文使用28个省1978年到2000年的面板数据,着重分析出口贸易和外商直接投资对经济表现的影响。使用Petroni的面板单位根数据检验和Arellano及Bond的动态面板数据估计技术,我们发现出口贸易和外商直接投资对经济增长有着重大的正面效应。研究结果表明,其他发展中国家和转轨经济国家可以借鉴中国政府采用的这两种发展政策:推动出口和引入国际水准的技术与商业管理实践。     

Tariffs and economic growth in the first era of globalization

Are liberal trade policies good for growth? Sceptics often point to the late nineteenth century as a period when protectionist policies promoted economic development. This apparent blueprint for the benefits of protectionism paradoxically comes from a period that is often described as the first era of globalization. In this paper we reassess the empirical evidence about the relationship between tariffs and growth between 1870 and 1914. Our key findings challenge the idea that in the nineteenth century countries that raised tariffs thereby increased their own growth rate. Using new and improved data and employing a whole portfolio of econometric tests we do not find evidence that increased protectionism raised the rate of individual countries’ growth. While some positive cross-sectional correlation exists between tariffs and growth, this may reflect unobserved country traits rather than a causal relation. There is equally little evidence that other external factors, such as real exchange rates and terms of trade changes, were key drivers of economic performance. A paradox of this first era of globalization is not that free trade was bad for growth; it is that international economic policies seem to have mattered little to countries’ growth trajectories.     

Globalization versus Protectionism: Consequences for Long–Term Growth and Welfare in the South

This paper develops an endogenous growth model with two intrinsically symmetric regions, the North and the South. The analysis shows that globalization tends to increase long–term economic growth, but the South may become deindustrialized and suffer a welfare loss. I none the less find that protectionism need not reverse international inequalities: on the contrary, owing to locational hysteresis the South may lageven further behind. However, with continued globalization welfare in the South will unambiguously increase.
JEL Classification Numbers: F12, F13, F15.