When does a carbon tax on fossil fuels stimulate biofuels?

A carbon tax is an efficient economic instrument to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide released from fossil fuel burning. If designed properly, it could also help significantly to promote renewable energy. Using a multi-sector, multi-country computable general equilibrium model this study investigates under what circumstances a carbon tax would help stimulate penetration of biofuels into the energy supply mix for road transportation in various countries and regions around the world. This study shows that a carbon tax cum biofuel subsidy policy, where a carbon tax is introduced to fossil fuels and part of the tax revenue is used to finance the biofuel subsidy, would significantly help stimulate market penetration of biofuels. On the other hand, a carbon tax alone policy, where the entire tax revenue is recycled to households through a lump-sum transfer, does not help stimulate biofuels significantly even at higher tax rates. Although the carbon tax cum subsidy policy would cause higher loss in economic output at the global level as compared to the carbon tax alone policy, the incremental loss is relatively small. The key policy insight drawn from the study is that if a carbon tax were to be implemented in an economy for the purpose of climate change mitigation, recycling part of its revenue to finance biofuel subsidies would significantly help stimulate biofuels.     

Responses to World Oil and Coal Shocks, in a Short-Run Fuel Substitution Tax Model

This article examines effects on major Australian macroeconomic and structural variables of simultaneous shocks to world oil and black coal prices. The illustrative numerical results have been produced with the short-run fuel substitution tax model, ORANI-LFT. The current version of that model reflects the Australian Governmet's pre-1988 oil regulatory framework, and the simulations reported in this study reflect the recent switch from significant dependence on crude oil levy revenue to petroleum products excise revenue. Empirical results show that combined world oil and coal price shocks lead to substantially different effects than would occur from an oil shock alone. A major implication of this, for a small open economy such as Australia, is that particular attention has to be paid to the interdependence of world energy market, both when analysing the effects of such shocks and when formulating appropriate macroeconomic and energy policy responses. It is also pointed out how the model could be modified for investigating effects under deregulated oil market regimes.     

Can regional policy in a federation improve economic efficiency?

In the European Union and in many federal and non-federal countries, the central government pays subsidies to poor regions. These subsidies are often seen as a redistributive measure which comes at the cost of an efficiency loss. This paper develops an economic rationale for regional policy based on economic efficiency. We consider a model of a federation consisting of a rich and a poor region. The economy is characterized by imperfect competition in goods markets and unemployment. Firms initially produce in the rich region but may relocate their production to the poor region. We show that a subsidy on investment in the poor region unambiguously increases welfare if labour markets are competitive. If there is unemployment in both regions, the case for regional subsidies is weaker.     

Optimal taxation and public production in an open dual economy

This paper analyses the determinants of optimal tax policy, trade policy and shadow prices for cost-benefit analysis in a dual economy. It breaks new ground by combining in one model the tax and public investment policies considered in the public economics literature with the notion of labor market imperfection central to contributions on the dual economy.Optimal policies are first derived analytically, providing rules for organizing production, setting taxes and off-setting labor market distortions. Production efficiency is shown to obtain for the taxable part of the economy, a generalized Ramsey rule derived for producing-cumconsuming households in the directly non-taxable sector of the economy and new characterizations of optimal rural-urban migration established in the presence of distortionary taxation. A simple general equilibrium model is then numerically implemented on data for a particular developing country. The optimal policies analytically derived before are computed in the model under alternative assumptions about government revenue requirements, the degree to which different sectors of the economy are directly taxable, the nature of property rights and technological substitution possibilities. The results of these computations provide further insight into the theoretical results as well as clarifying their quantitative significance.     

Hardened Budget Constraints in Romania: An Approach by CGE Modeling

This study estimates the effects of hardened budget constraints on the Romanian economy and tests a market price-based policy by removing state subsidies. As most subsidies are granted to and through the energy sector, the analysis focuses on energy issues. A general equilibrium approach is used for the empirical application. The results fit the theory and show that removing subsidies contributes to eliminating distortions: energy intensity declines, the Gini coefficient drops and general welfare improves. The main effects of applying a cost recovery policy are the improvement of agents' self-financing capacity and of their investment structure. Surprisingly, production cost falls in all sectors, since cross-subsidies are removed.     

Growth and optimal policies in an R&D-growth model with imperfect international capital mobility

In this paper, we examine the effects of international capital mobility on innovation, growth, and optimal growth policies in a small open economy with R&D-driven growth. Households can borrow funds from an imperfect international capital market to finance their investment in R&D firms. We show that the economy can reach a higher growth rate if international capital is more mobile. This result is consistent with recent empirical findings. Moreover, we show that the common growth-enhancing policies, such as patent protection and the R&D subsidies, have an additional negative welfare effect when households can access the international capital market. Accordingly, the optimal patent protection and R&D subsidy should be smaller when the degree of international capital mobility is higher.     

中国新能源企业政府环境研发补贴的动态激励效应

选取2011—2017年中国新能源行业122家上市公司面板数据，建立面板向量自回归模型（PVAR），通过研究政府环境研发补贴、企业研发投入和环境绩效之间的动态交互关系，考察政府补贴对企业创新的激励效应以及补贴的配置合理性问题。结果表明：一方面，环境研发补贴对企业研发投入和环境绩效均存在滞后1~4年的影响。政府补贴促进企业研发投入，非国企比国企显著；政府补贴对环境绩效的影响在不同产权性质企业中存在较大差异，补贴显著抑制了国企环境绩效，但有效促进了非国企环境绩效。另一方面，企业研发投入与环境绩效对于后续政府补贴投入分别具有滞后1~4年和1~2年的正向反馈作用。针对国企，政府补贴决策是结果导向的，即更关注其环境绩效；对于非国企，政府补贴决策偏好过程导向，即更多地考察企业对研发活动的投入情况。研究结论可为完善中国新能源企业环境补贴政策，提高新能源企业环境研发水平和环境绩效提供参考。     

中国新能源企业政府环境研发补贴的动态激励效应

选取2011—2017年中国新能源行业122家上市公司面板数据,建立面板向量自回归模型（PVAR）,通过研究政府环境研发补贴、企业研发投入和环境绩效之间的动态交互关系,考察政府补贴对企业创新的激励效应以及补贴的配置合理性问题。结果表明：一方面,环境研发补贴对企业研发投入和环境绩效均存在滞后1~4年的影响。政府补贴促进企业研发投入,非国企比国企显著;政府补贴对环境绩效的影响在不同产权性质企业中存在较大差异,补贴显著抑制了国企环境绩效,但有效促进了非国企环境绩效。另一方面,企业研发投入与环境绩效对于后续政府补贴投入分别具有滞后1~4年和1~2年的正向反馈作用。针对国企,政府补贴决策是结果导向的,即更关注其环境绩效;对于非国企,政府补贴决策偏好过程导向,即更多地考察企业对研发活动的投入情况。研究结论可为完善中国新能源企业环境补贴政策,提高新能源企业环境研发水平和环境绩效提供参考。     

我国县域农户家庭劳动力利用的实证分析——以山东省梁山县为例

本文对我国县域农户家庭劳动力利用的情况进行了分析,并对劳动力利用的影响因素进行了模型估计。研究结果表明:当前我国农村还存在20%～30%的富余劳动力需要转移;农户在进行家庭内部分工时基于家庭效益最大化考虑;农户家庭收入来源和镇域经济发展对县域农户家庭劳动力利用有显著影响,不同的家庭劳动力特征对农户家庭就业决策的影响存在一定差异,政策性补贴对农户家庭就业决策的影响不大。在此基础上,本文提出若干政策建议。     

A low growth path in Austria: potential causes,consequences and policy options

This paper reports on an Austrian research project that deals with the question how the Austrian society could cope with long-lasting low economic growth. Various causes of low-growth that are relevant for Austria (a deteriorating balance of trade, increasing resource prices, consumer restraint of households and less immigration) have been identified, leading to an only moderate gross domestic product growth of 0.55 % per year. The resulting impact on the economy is substantial: the labour market suffers from a shortage of labour supply (due to reduced migration) and from a reduced demand for labour (due to reduced demand in consumption, investments and exports). Subsequently, less employment decreases the development of the disposable income of private households (tax rates and social security contributions held constant). Related to this, public debt is higher due to reduced tax incomes and slightly growing public expenditures. From an ecological perspective, resource consumption increases at a slower rate, however, no absolute reduction can be reached. CO₂ emissions also slightly increase. Therefore, it cannot be assumed that low growth necessarily leads to the achievement of energy and environmental policy goals. Based on these results, a policy scenario was used to analyze whether and how policy measures are able to cope with the negative consequences of persistent low growth. The results reveal that the selected measures are suitable to reduce negative economic effects: The implementation of reduced working time and an eco-social reform of levies might improve the labour market situation. The negative effects on the national budget can be diminished by a reduction of environmentally harmful subsidies. Induced behaviour changes of private households can reduce energy and resource-intensive consumption.     

Subsidies for renewable energy in inflexible power markets

This paper analyses how short-term operational efficiency and the \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) emissions of a power system depend on different subsidies for wind power and on the flexibility of the power system. This is analysed in the framework of a numerical power market model, calibrated to Danish data, where the start-up costs and other constraints in fossil-fuelled power plants are taken into account. The main conclusion is that flexibility is crucial for the costs of integrating wind power in an existing system. If thermal power plants are inflexible, subsidies for wind power should strive to increase the flexibility of the market by passing market signals to wind power. A subsidy that conceals market signals from wind power producers (a production subsidy) or disconnects wind power incentives from the market signals altogether (a fixed price) increases costs considerably. An inflexible power system should aim to introduce optimal subsidies (an investment subsidy) instead of production subsidies or a fixed price. The design of the subsidy scheme should take into account both the characteristics of the existing system and the characteristics of renewables.     

农户参与生态旅游的能源碳排放测算及影响因素研究——基于大熊猫国家公园试点调查数据

在自然保护地周边生态旅游发展过程中,乡村农户的生产经营活动对环境和资源产生的压力是当前研究的热点问题,而能源消费则是其中的重要方面。研究以大熊猫国家公园试点区为例,测算了农户在参与生态旅游前后各项能源的消耗及其碳排放的变化情况,并利用改进的STIRPAT模型探讨其影响因素,结果发现:农户在参与生态旅游之后能源消费结构呈多元化趋势,薪柴和电能源消耗成为碳排放的主要来源;农户接待游客量、收入水平以及实物和资金等能源补贴政策显著影响了能源碳排放量。基于此,提出规范农户经营行为、提高资金补贴、推广节能技术和设备、加强宣传力度等对策建议。     

Time-consistent taxation in a dynastic family model with human and physical capital and a balanced government budget

Abstract .  This paper analyzes optimal, time consistent taxation in a dynastic family model with human and physical capital and with a balanced government budget. When tax revenue is used for publicly provided consumption or lump-sum transfers, leisure would be higher than its social optimum. Pareto optimal taxation requires taxing capital income more heavily than labour income and subsidizing investment at the same rate of the tax. Also, it requires either subsidizing labour at the same rate as a consumption tax or subsidizing consumption at the same rate as a labour income tax, and hence it is not a practical guide to policy. Further, a consumption tax, or equivalently a uniform income tax with investment subsidies at the same rate, can be improved on by taxing capital income more heavily than labour income.     

The economics of the Syrian refugee crisis in neighbouring countries: The case of Lebanon

In this article, we investigate the effects of a massive displacement of workers from a war‐torn economy on the economy of a neighbouring country. Applying a general equilibrium approach to the Lebanese economy, we explore effects from various components of the crisis on the labour market, the production apparatus and macroeconomic indicators. Along with previous literature, our findings suggest limited or no adverse effects on high‐skilled native workers, but a negative impact on the most vulnerable Lebanese workers. When aid takes the form of investment subsidies, significantly better growth and labour market prospects arise, recalling the necessity of complementing humanitarian aid with development aid to succeed in achieving long‐term objectives. This may however not be politically viable in a context where refugees are considered as temporary.     

Labour market programmes and the equity-efficiency trade-off

This paper studies optimal labour market policy in a society where differently gifted individuals can invest in training to further increase their labour market productivity and where the government seeks both efficiency and equity. Frictions in the matching process create unemployment and differently skilled workers face different levels of risk of unemployment. We show that in such an environment, training programmes that are targeted at the disadvantaged workers complement passive transfers (UI benefits), unlike general training subsidies. Combining passive subsidies with a training subsidy conditioned on the individual being unemployed (for a period) – the typical Active Labour Market Programme – creates a favourable trade-off between equity and efficiency and this encourages high spending on training.     

Biofuel Subsidies and International Trade

This paper explores optimal biofuel subsidies in a general equilibrium trade model. The focus is on the production of biofuels such as corn‐based ethanol, which diverts corn from use as food. In the small‐country case, when the tax on crude is not available as a policy option, a second‐best biofuel subsidy may or may not be positive. In the large‐country case, the twin objectives of pollution reduction and terms‐of‐trade improvement justify a combination of crude tax and biofuel subsidy for the food exporter. Finally, we show that when both nations engage in biofuel policies, the terms‐of‐trade effects encourage the Nash equilibrium subsidy to be positive (negative) for the food exporting (importing) nation.     

Forecasting development outcomes under alternative surplus labour assumptions

Economic forecasts are useful to policymakers both as aids to planning, and as baselines against which counterfactual scenarios can be compared. However, policy makers should be aware that assumptions relating to model structure can influence forecast results. We explore the sensitivity of forecasts to one aspect of model structure important in modelling developing economies: surplus agricultural labour. We outline a framework for modelling surplus agricultural labour that relies on average product remuneration. We embed this within a model of a developing economy (the Philippines) characterized by surplus agricultural labour. We compare the results of two forecasts that differ in their treatment of the agricultural labour market. In the first, the surplus labour theory is activated, establishing average product remuneration in agriculture. In the second, the surplus labour theory is not activated, creating a failure to recognize average product remuneration in agriculture. By comparing the two simulations, we show that failure to model the presence of average product remuneration, when it would be appropriate to do so, has an impact that would be material to economic planners, leading them to: under-estimate agricultural employment; over-estimate GDP growth; and, over-estimate important policy variables (like tax revenue) that are related to GDP growth.     

食品价格上涨对城镇家庭消费与福利影响研究——基于EASI模型

文章基于与2015年度诺贝尔经济学奖得主迪顿的接近理想需求系统 AIDS 来源相同的EASI需求系统 ,采用CHNS调查数据 ,运用 EASI需求系统实证分析了各类食品价格上涨对不同收入等级城镇家庭消费与福利的影响 ,并比较了收入补贴与价格补贴的经济效果.研究发现:(1)我国城镇居民动物性食品消费支出占食品总支出的比重最大 ,其次是粮食和蔬菜 ,城镇居民的食品消费结构为"动物性食品+粮食+蔬菜" ,这说明动物性食品价格上涨对我国城镇居民日常膳食消费的影响相对较大.(2)粮食价格对困难户和最低收入家庭的福利影响最大 ,动物性食品价格对较低收入家庭的福利影响最大.(3)对低收入家庭而言 ,当动物性食品价格上涨时 ,收入补贴政策的效果优于价格补贴政策 ;当粮食价格上涨时 ,价格补贴政策的效果优于收入补贴政策.文章最后从生产、补贴政策和分配制度的角度提出了政策建议.     

保护性耕作技术经济效益及其补贴政策的总体评价——来自山西省农户问卷调查的分析

基于农户调研数据,运用描述性统计分析方法,在分析保护性耕作技术对产量和生产成本影响的基础上,分析了保护性耕作技术补贴政策的实施效果以及农户对该项补贴政策的评价和期望。得出的主要结论是,保护性耕作技术的增产和节约成本效果对部分农户还存在差异,政府补贴是推进这一技术实施的主要手段。就如何加快保护性耕作技术的推广和应用提出了建议。     

Market power and output-based refunding of environmental policy revenues

Output-based refunding of environmental policy revenues combines a tax on emissions with a production subsidy, typically in a revenue-neutral fashion. With imperfect competition, subsidies can alleviate output underprovision. However, when market shares are significant, endogenous refunding reduces abatement incentives and the marginal net tax or subsidy. If market shares differ, marginal abatement costs will not be equalized, and production is shifted among participants. In an asymmetric Cournot duopoly, endogenous refunding leads to higher output, emissions, and overall costs compared with a fixed rebate program targeting the same emissions intensity. These results hold whether emissions rates are determined simultaneously with output or strategically in a two-stage model.