Population growth and economic growth

This discussion of the issues relating to the problem posed by population explosion in the developing countries and economic growth in the contemporary world covers the following: predictions of economic and social trends; the Malthusian theory of population; the classical or stationary theory of population; the medical triage model; ecological disaster; the Global 2000 study; the limits to growth; critiques of the Limits to Growth model; nonrenewable resources; food and agriculture; population explosion and stabilization; space and ocean colonization; and the limits perspective. The Limits to Growth model, a general equilibrium anti-growth model, is the gloomiest economic model ever constructed. None of the doomsday models, the Malthusian theory, the classical stationary state, the neo-Malthusian medical triage model, the Global 2000 study, are so far reaching in their consequences. The course of events that followed the publication of the "Limits to Growth" in 1972 in the form of 2 oil shocks, food shock, pollution shock, and price shock seemed to bear out formally the gloomy predictions of the thesis with a remarkable speed. The 12 years of economic experience and the knowledge of resource trends postulate that even if the economic pressures visualized by the model are at work they are neither far reaching nor so drastic. Appropriate action can solve them. There are several limitations to the Limits to Growth model. The central theme of the model, which is overshoot and collapse, is unlikely to be the course of events. The model is too aggregative to be realistic. It exaggerates the ecological disaster arising out of the exponential growth of population and industry. The gross underestimation of renewable resources is a basic flaw of the model. The most critical weakness of the model is its gross underestimation of the historical trend of technological progress and the technological possiblities within industry and agriculture. The model does correctly emphasize the exponential growth of population as the source of several complications for economic growth and human welfare. Stabilization of population by reducing fertility is conducive for improving the quality of population and also advances the longterm management of the population growth and work force utilization. The perspective of longterm economic management involves populatio n planning, control of environmental pollution, conservation of scarce resources, exploration of resources, realization of technological possibilities in agriculture and industry and in farm and factory, and achievement of economic growth and its equitable distribution.     

Population growth,soil fertility,and agricultural intensification

This paper presents a renewable resource model of soil fertility with a nonconvexity in the net benefit function. In this setting, recurring cycles of cropping and fallow can be the optimal soil management strategy. The model is used to illuminate the Boserup discussion of agricultural development, in which population growth leads to agricultural intensification, defined as an increase in cropping frequency. Previous formal models of the Boserup hypothesis focus on the land-labor ratio rather than cropping frequency and have not directly incorporated soil fertility dynamics. These models assume a convex production technology and are not optimistic about the prospect for agricultural development without technological progress. This paper explicitly models soil fertility dynamics and demonstrates that nonconvexities in the production technology are an important feature of the use of long fallow periods for soil management. As population grows, and the demand for food increases, the importance of the nonconvexity diminishes and more frequent cropping becomes economical. Given a nonconvexity in the production technology, it is possible, though not necessary, that average labor productivity increases with agricultural intensification. Thus, it is possible to reconcile the greater labor requirement of intensive farming with an increase in average labor productivity. In addition, Boserup argued that a larger and denser population facilitates the development of economic and social infrastructure which improve agricultural productivity.     

Population distribution,effective area and economic growth

The usual measure for the factor land is the total area. But total area is a flawed measure because land is of unequal quality. To account for land quality, we use an alternative measure called effective area. Effective area is based on spatial population distribution which captures both natural conditions and human activity. Theoretically, effective area explains economic growth better than total area that biases the measure of total factor productivity (TFP) growth. Empirically on the basis of 40 years of panel data for the United States, an increase of 10% in effective area is associated with an economic growth of 5%, and the omission of effective area undervalues the growth of TFP by 8.1%.     

Population heterogeneity and growth

I investigate the robustness of the link between growth and heterogeneity in a population along ethnic, linguistic, religious, and socio-economic class lines using cross-country data covering the period 1960–92 and 72 countries. In addition to 21 distinct explanatory variables extensively used in the empirical growth literature, I consider several fragmentation and polarization indices capturing the heterogeneity in a population to deal with measurement uncertainty, and utilize Bayesian Model Averaging techniques to address uncertainty issues regarding model specification. My results indicate that while substantial data evidence favors the inclusion of population heterogeneity as a theory when proxied by fragmentation indices, it does not support the inclusion of this theory when proxied by polarization indices. Furthermore, the religious fragmentation index has the strongest evidence in favor of its inclusion as opposed to ethnic and linguistic fragmentation indices and income inequality.     

Optimal growth and land preservation

A model of optimal economic growth with a constant population subject to a constraint on the availability of land is presented. It takes account of the dual character of land as a production factor and as a consumption good (environmental amenities) by determining the optimal intertemporal allocation of land between productive and recreational uses. An extension of the analysis for the case of a growing population with endogenous growth based on human capital accumulation shows that if the rate of discount is not very low, then there exists a set of balanced growth paths compatible with a constant allocation of land.     

Population growth and economic growth: a reconsideration

The relationship between population growth and development has long been a controversial topic in the economic development literature. Early work by Hoover and Coale and more recent work by Blanchet suggest that high fertility suppresses per capita income growth. However, recent work by Kelley and Srinivasan are ambivalent about such a neo-Malthusian relationship between population growth and economic growth. The authors examine these conflicting positions. They emphasize that the rates of both population growth and income growth are endogenous variables within a general equilibrium framework. An endogenous growth model with endogenous fertility is then developed. It is found that when all exogenous variables are controlled for, there exists an inverse relation between population growth and economic growth. However, when some exogenous factors change, such as an improvement in technological progress, the relation becomes ambiguous. This suggests that the conflicting findings in the literature may be because of the presence of substantial heterogeneity in unobserved variables across countries and over time in cross-country panel data sets.     

Population,food, and knowledge: a simple unified growth theory

This paper provides a unified growth theory, i.e. a model that explains the very long-run economic and demographic development path of industrialized economies, stretching from the pre-industrial era to the present-day and beyond. Making strict use of Malthus’ (An essay on the principle of population. London, printed for J. Johnson, 1798) so-called preventive check hypothesis—that fertility rates vary inversely with the price of food—the current study offers a new and straightforward explanation for the demographic transition and the break with the Malthusian era. Employing a two-sector framework with agriculture and industry, we demonstrate how fertility responds differently to productivity and income growth, depending on whether it emerges in agriculture or industry. Agricultural productivity and income growth makes food goods, and therefore children, relatively less expensive. Industrial productivity and income growth, on the other hand, makes food goods, and therefore children, relatively more expensive. The present framework lends support to existing unified growth theories and is well in tune with historical evidence about structural transformation.      

Population,competition, innovation,and economic growth with and without human capital investment

This paper analyzes how population and product market competition (PMC) may interact with each other in affecting the pace of economic growth. The impact of a change in population (size or growth) and in the degree of PMC on productivity growth may vary depending on the presence of human versus physical capital investment, the way in which individuals may purposefully invest in human capital, the type of input used in the uncompetitive sector, the form of households’ intertemporal utility, and whether PMC (measured by the degree of substitutability between differentiated intermediates) is disentangled or not from the input shares in aggregate income. It is found that a growth model with human capital accumulation à la Lucas (J Monet Econ 22(1):3–42, 1988) and a continuum of degrees of intertemporal altruism can predict an ambiguous link between population and economic growth rates, in line with the available empirical evidence. The article also analyzes the conditions under which market structure (monopoly power) and population (size or growth) may be complementary to each other in the process of long-run economic growth.     

Population growth and economic and social development

This article sets forth 3 positions on population growth: 1) rapid population growth is a central development problem that implies lower living standards for the poor; 2) proposals for reducing population growth raise difficult questions about the proper domain of public policy, yet it is acceptable for governments to attempt to influence private decisions about family size; and 3) the experience in many developing countries shows that quick, effective measures can be taken to reduce fertility. Rapid population growth has slowed development because it exacerbates the difficult choice between higher consumption in the present and the investment needed to bring higher consumption in the future. As populations grow, larger investments are needed just to maintain current capital/person. It further threatens the balance between natural resources and people and creates severe economic and social problems in urban areas. Public policy must provide alternative ways for poor families to secure the benefits provided by large family size. That is, governments need to provide tangible evidence that it really is in the best interests of parents to have fewer children. Also required is greater infomation about and access to fertility control. When family planning services have been widespread and affordable, fertility has decline faster than social and economic progress alone would predict. There is a need for immediate action to improve women's status and to make education, family planning, and primary health care more available. Although economic and social progress help to slow population growth, rapid population growth hinders development. Thus, governments must act simultaneously on both fronts. Accumulating evidence on population growth in developing countries shows that is the combination of social development and family planning that reduces fertility.     

河北省各区人口、耕地与粮食安全的协调情况分析

在上世纪80年代河北农业区划分的基础上，封各区域的人口、耕地与粮食产量进行分时点对比分析，并封各区域人口与耕地、人口与粮食、耕地与粮食之间的协调情况从静态和动态两个方面进行了分析。     

Population and economic growth: Ancient and modern

This paper focuses on the evolution of the relationship between population and economic growth from Hume to New Growth Theory. In this paper, we show that there were two main views on the subject. There were those who assumed that the relationship between fertility rate and income was positive. On the other hand, there were those who raised the possibility that this linkage did not occur, and they emphasised that an increase in income did not necessarily lead to having more children. Following from Hicks’ methodological precept, the paper will show that their position on the issue was related to a socio-economic fact: the sibship size effect. We show that those who took the view that an increase in income leads to the desire to have more children did not take into consideration the sibship size effect, while those maintaining that there existed a negative relationship introduced into their utility function a sibship size effect.     

Population increase,economic growth,educational inequality,and income distribution: some recent evidence

The relationship between population increase, economic growth, education and income inequality was examined in a cross-section study based on data from 26 developing and 2 developed countries. As other studies have noted, high population growth is associated with a less equal income distribution. A 1 percentage point reduction in the rate of population growth tends to raise the income share of the poorest 80% in the less developed world by almost 5 percentage points and is associated with a 1.7 percentage point increase in the income share of the poorest 40%. The relationship between short-run income growth and equality, on the other hand, is strong and positive. Estimates suggest that a 1 percentage point increase in the short-run rate of growth of the gross domestic product (GDP) increases the income share of the bottom 80% by about 2 percentage points and that of the poorest 40% by almost 1 percentage point. Although higher mean schooling appears to be a mild equalizer, educational inequality does not appear to have an adverse effect on income distribution. Overall, these results challenge the widely held belief that there must be a growth-equity trade-off. Moreover, they suggest that the impact of educational inequality on income distribution may be different from that observed in earlier studies, implying a need for caution in using these earlier results as a basis for educational policy development.     

Population aging,the costs of health care for the elderly and growth

Employing an overlapping-generations model with endogenous growth in which altruistic young agents take care of the health level of their aged parents at risk of illness, this paper examines how population aging influences the long-run growth rate of the economy. We show that life expectancy, when relatively low (high), positively (negatively) affects economic growth. This paper also investigates public policy on long-term care and demonstrates the existence of an intergenerational conflict between current and future generations. We also point out that population aging may mitigate the extent of this conflict.     

Property rights in land and output growth in Russia

This paper tests whether the implementation of a key market‐oriented reform in post‐Soviet Russia, property rights in land, proxied by the percent of privatized land by region, affected the pace of sub‐national economic growth during two unprecedented expansion periods: 2001–2008 and 2010–2014. Individuals gained the Constitutional right to own land in 1993, but implementation was stalled. The pace of land privatization can be explained by arguably exogenous factors such as distance to Moscow, as well as climate and also regional political culture, proxied by concentration of votes in the 2004 presidential election. We show that this rate of land privatization in Russia's regions was significantly associated with output growth in 2010–2014, confirming the policy importance of this measure for developing economies. Regions where private holdings expanded most rapidly with the enforcement of property rights in land, gained a competitive advantage in the growth process through increased investment in fixed assets and private consumption.     

山东省人口─耕地─粮食系统的预测分析及对策研究

本文利用灰色系统方法对山东省的总人口、耕地面积、……粮食总产量等项指标进行了预测，根据预测结果，提出了解决人民耕地和粮食之间矛盾的对策。     

Population growth and the benefits from optimally priced externalities

"In this article we show that, considering only economic effects, even if population growth, by natural increase or immigration, increases congestion, pollution, and other forms of external costs, that provided pre-existing citizens own the resources giving rise to the externalities, and provided they efficiently price usage of such, that existing citizens must, in net average terms, be better off with population growth than without it. In simple terms the increased revenues they gain from efficient pricing at increased demand levels will be strictly greater than the monetary value of the increased external costs together with the higher tax costs they incur as consumers of the resources."     

Population and economic growth: a simultaneous equation perspective

This article examines the relationship between Population Growth (PG) and Economic Growth (EG) in the framework of simultaneous structural equation models. Based on Lewbel (2012), the structural parameters can be estimated using the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). Identification requires a heteroscedastic covariance restriction that appears in some models of endogeneity, measurement errors and panel data. This study obtains several findings. First, the current and lagged variables of PG negatively and positively affect EG in the short run. Second, PG does not significantly influence EG in the long run. Third, the reverse relations running from EG to PG are weak in both the short and long run, regardless of economic development conditions.     

"人口红利"效应与中国经济增长

中国经济"增长奇迹"源于多种因素,"人口红利"是其中最重要的因素之一.当前,我国的人口红利主要表现为较高的劳动人口比例和劳动力配置效率.但人口红利并非可持续.长期看,随着我国人口出生率下降,劳动参与率将下降;短期看,我国城乡劳动力流动障碍依然存在,不利于劳动力配置效率的进一步提高.因此,提高劳动力素质和消除城乡劳动力流动障碍,是实现我国"人口红利"效应最大化的重要措施.