Energy consumption, carbon emissions, and economic growth in China

This paper investigates the existence and direction of Granger causality between economic growth, energy consumption, and carbon emissions in China, applying a multivariate model of economic growth, energy use, carbon emissions, capital and urban population. Empirical results for China over the period 1960-2007 suggest a unidirectional Granger causality running from GDP to energy consumption, and a unidirectional Granger causality running from energy consumption to carbon emissions in the long run. Evidence shows that neither carbon emissions nor energy consumption leads economic growth. Therefore, the government of China can purse conservative energy policy and carbon emissions reduction policy in the long run without impeding economic growth.     

Energy consumption and economic growth in Asian economies: A more comprehensive analysis using panel data

This paper applies the most recently developed panel unit root, heterogeneous panel cointegration and panel-based error correction models to re-investigate co-movement and the causal relationship between energy consumption and real GDP within a multivariate framework that includes capital stock and labor input for 16 Asian countries during the 1971–2002 period. It employs the production side model (aggregate production function). The empirical results fully support a positive long-run cointegrated relationship between real GDP and energy consumption when the heterogeneous country effect is taken into account. It is found that although economic growth and energy consumption lack short-run causality, there is long-run unidirectional causality running from energy consumption to economic growth. This means that reducing energy consumption does not adversely affect GDP in the short-run but would in the long-run; thus, these countries should adopt a more vigorous energy policy. Furthermore, we broaden the investigation by dividing the sample countries into two cross-regional groups, namely the APEC and ASEAN groups, and even more important results and implications emerge.     

浙江省能源消费与经济增长的动态关系

利用1985—2009年浙江省能源消费总量和国内生产总值的时间序列数据,采用单位根检验、协整检验、格兰杰因果关系检验,并利用脉冲响应函数、方差分解分析方法,对浙江省能源消费与经济增长之间的因果关系、动态关系以及定量关系进行了研究。研究结果表明:浙江省能源消费与经济增长之间存在从经济增长到能源消费的单向因果关系;经济增长的较小波动会对能源消费产生持续的影响。     

CO2 emissions,output, energy consumption,and trade in Tunisia

This article contributes to the literature by investigating the dynamic relationship between carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, output (GDP), energy consumption, and trade using the bounds testing approach to cointegration and the ARDL methodology for Tunisia over the period 1971–2008. The empirical results reveal the existence of two causal long-run relationships between the variables. In the short-run, there are three unidirectional Granger causality relationships, which run from GDP, squared GDP and energy consumption to CO₂ emissions. To check the stability in the parameter of the selected model, CUSUM and CUSUMSQ were used. The results also provide important policy implications.     

A multivariate time series analysis of energy consumption,real output and pollutant emissions in a developing economy: New evidence from Nepal

Mountain economies will have to play a central role in attaining the global pursuit of green economic growth as crucial bearers of ecosystems goods and services. However, these economies are not adequately represented in the development policy debates in spite of their fundamental importance towards global sustainable development. This study examines the inter relationships between energy consumption, output and carbon emissions in a developing mountainous economy using an augmented Vector Autoregression model. Time-series data over the period 1975–2013 is studied applying a multivariate framework using population and gross fixed capital formation as additional variables for Nepal. Testing for Granger causality between integrated variables based on asymptotic theory reveals a long-run unidirectional Granger causality running from GDP to energy consumption, and a unidirectional Granger causality running from carbon emissions to GDP. We suggest that the government of Nepal can address energy poverty by accelerating the adoption energy conservation policies such as rationing energy consumption and energy efficiency improvements to narrow the energy supply-demand gap. The opportunity to promote the uptake of decentralised off-grid renewable technologies in remote areas and the large scale development of hydropower at the national level also needs to be prioritized. Our results remain robust across different estimators and contributes to an emerging literature on the nexus relationships between energy consumption, income and carbon emissions in mountainous developing economies.     

CO2 emissions,economic growth,energy consumption,trade and urbanization in new EU member and candidate countries: A panel data analysis

This paper investigates the causal relationship between energy consumption, carbon dioxide emissions, economic growth, trade openness and urbanization for a panel of new EU member and candidate countries over the period 1992–2010. Panel unit root tests, panel cointegration methods and panel causality tests are used to investigate this relationship. The main results provide evidence supporting the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis. Hence, there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between environment and income for the sampled countries. The results also indicate that there is a short-run unidirectional panel causality running from energy consumption, trade openness and urbanization to carbon emissions, from GDP to energy consumption, from GDP, energy consumption and urbanization to trade openness, from urbanization to GDP, and from urbanization to trade openness. As for the long-run causal relationship, the results indicate that estimated coefficients of lagged error correction term in the carbon dioxide emissions, energy consumption, GDP, and trade openness equations are statistically significant, implying that these four variables could play an important role in adjustment process as the system departs from the long-run equilibrium.     

A sneeze in the U.S., a cough in Japan,but pneumonia in Taiwan? An application of the Markov-Switching vector autoregressive model

This paper examines the lead–lag relationships among the output of Taiwan, Japan and the U.S. Three testing methods are employed: the traditional linear Granger causality test, Hiemstra and Jones' [Hiemstra, C., Jones, J.D., 1994. Testing for linear and nonlinear Granger causality in the stock price-volume relation. Journal of Finance 49, 1639–1664] nonlinear Granger causality test and Warne's [Warne, A., 2000. Causality and regime inference in a Markov-S switching VAR, Working Paper no. 118, Sveriges Riksbank, Stockholm.] Granger causality test under the Markov-Switching model. We find that the causal ordering is unclear and depends on the model we used. Because Markov-Switching model imposes few restrictions in estimation, we tend to use its estimated results but bear in mind that the evidence is sensitive. First, the common shock hypothesis is found that most probably exists between Taiwan and the U.S. Next, we conclude that Japan tends to lead Taiwan's output, to a certain extent. Last, there is no causal ordering between the U.S. and Japan economies.     

经济增长与能源消费：来自山东省的经验证据

本文运用协整分析和误差修正模型技术．探讨山东省经济增长与能源消费之间的关系。实证研究结果表明，山东省经济增长与能源消费存在长期均衡关系．并存在从经济增长到能源消费的单向因果关系；经济增长与能源消费之间的关系是非线性的，因而不能从能源消费的线性变化推测出经济增长率的变化；山东省经济受电力消费的影响较大，为了在2010年单位地区生产总值能源消耗降低20％的政策目标．山东电力消耗较高的产业必须加以调整。     

Is the tourism–economic growth nexus time-varying? Bootstrap rolling-window causality analysis for the top 10 tourist destinations

This article explores the time-varying causal nexus between tourism development and economic growth for the top 10 tourist destinations in the world, namely China, France, Germany, Italy, Mexico, the Russian Federation, Spain, Turkey, the UK and the United States of America, over the period 1990–2015. To that end, a bootstrap rolling window Granger causality approach based on the modified Granger causality test is used. A new index for tourism activity which combines via principal component analysis the commonly used tourism indicators is also employed. The results of the bootstrap rolling window causality tests reveal that the causal relations between tourism and economic growth vary substantially over time and across countries in terms of both magnitude and direction. It is shown that the causal linkages tend to be more pronounced for a large group of countries following the global financial crisis of 2008. Additionally, Germany, France and China clearly stand out as the countries with the weakest causal nexus, while the UK, Italy and Mexico emerge as the countries that have the strongest causal links. These results have particularly important implications for policymakers.     

Energy consumption,employment, output,and temporal causality: evidence from Taiwan based on cointegration and error-correction modelling techniques

In this study, a cointegration analysis and a vector autoregressive model (VAR) are used to examine the causal relationships among energy consumption, employment, and output for Taiwan over the period January 1982 to November 1997. Johansen (1988) and Johansen and Juselius (1990) cointegration test result indicates these three variables are cointegrated with one cointegrating vector. The results from Granger causality tests based on vector error-correction models (VECM) suggest bidirectional Grange causality for employment-output and employment-energy consumption, but only unidirectional causality running from energy consumption to output. Furthermore, the impulse responses and variance decompositions are also incorporated into the analysis. The results from impulsive response and variance decomposition analysis tell similar stories. Energy consumption appears to have led to output growth in Taiwan over this period. The policy implication of this finding is that energy conservation will restrain the output growth in Taiwan.     

Revisiting the environmental kuznets curve hypothesis: evidence from the ASEAN-5 countries with structural breaks

This paper tests if the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis exists for ASEAN-5 countries in an annual sample data that covers 1971–2013, by utilizing Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) methodology. The empirical findings give support for the EKC hypothesis for Thailand only, after considering the structural breaks. Furthermore, the paper tests the EKC hypothesis for a panel data of the ASEAN-5 by adopting the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) methodology. The results show that the long-run estimates provide no evidence for the EKC hypothesis. Finally, the paper examines the causality between the CO₂ emissions and GDP. For individual countries, bidirectional causality was found in the case of Thailand and Malaysia, plus unidirectional causality running from GDP and squared GDP to CO₂ emissions was found for Indonesia, but a unidirectional causality running from CO₂ emissions to GDP and squared GDP was found for the Philippines, however, no causality effect was found for Singapore. Furthermore, the pairwise Dumitrescu and Hurlin Panel Causality test show a bidirectional effect between CO₂ emissions and both GDP in addition to squared GDP.     

中国能源消费与经济发展的动态关系研究

运用协整理论,研究了1953--2006年中国能源消费与实际GDP之间的关系。结果表明：中国能源消费和实际GDP之间存在协整关系。建立了能源消费与实际GDP之间的误差修正模型,并通过基于误差修正模型的格兰杰因果关系检验分析了中国能源消费和实际GDP之间的因果关系。结果表明：存在能源消费到实际GDP的短期格兰杰因果关系,存在实际GDP到能源消费的长期格兰杰因果关系。采用HP滤波技术分离出能源消费和实际GDP的趋势成分和周期成分,对能源消费和实际GDP的趋势成分、周期成分之间的关系进行分析。结果表明,能源消费和实际GDP的趋势成分之间存在共同趋势,能源消费和实际GDP的波动成分具有相同的波动特征。最后得出结论：中国能源消费与实际GDP之间的协整关系与经济增长和能源消费的共同波动有关。     

Energy consumption and economic growth in the United States

We study the relationship between energy consumption and real GDP in the USA using a multivariate time-varying model [1973Q1–2014Q1]. We show that the combination of disaggregation into specific fuels and time variation gives more nuanced results than the alternatives for the USA. Specifically, we find that the Granger causal relationship between total energy and real US GDP is bi-directional through much of the 1990s, but unidirectional running from real US GDP to energy consumption in the 2000s. As for each fuel, similar patterns of change were observed in the causal relationship between coal consumption and real US GDP. Oil consumption largely shows a bi-directional relationship between consumption and US GDP, especially after 2009. And natural gas consumption shows a brief period in the early-to-mid 2000s where US GDP predicts energy consumption, but primarily shows that natural gas consumption and economic growth are independent.     

Co-Integration and Causality Testing of the Energy–GDP Relationship: A Cross-Country Study

In this paper, the energy–GDP relationship (in per capita terms) is analysed for a sample of 16 countries, over the time period 1950–51 to 1984–85. Co-integration theory is first used to test whether a long-run equilibrium relation exists between the two variables. After co-integration has been established, causality measures are constructed to quantify various types of feedback between energy and GDP for each country. It is then examined whether the causality measures are longitudinally related to certain basic economic indicators of the countries in the sample.     

The rationality of EIA forecasts under symmetric and asymmetric loss

The United States Energy Information Administration publishes annual forecasts of nationally aggregated energy consumption, production, prices, intensity and GDP. These government issued forecasts often serve as reference cases in the calibration of simulation and econometric models, which climate and energy policy are based on. This study tests for rationality of published EIA forecasts under symmetric and asymmetric loss. We find strong empirical evidence of asymmetric loss for oil, coal and electricity prices as well as natural gas consumption, electricity sales, GDP and energy intensity.     

How strong is the causal relationship between globalization and energy consumption in developed economies? A country-specific time-series and panel analysis

We examine the causal relationship between globalization, economic growth and energy consumption for 25 developed economies using both time series and panel data techniques for the period 1970–2014. Due to the presence of cross-sectional dependence in the panel (countries from Asia, North America, Western Europe and Oceania), we employ the cross-sectional augmented IPS test to ascertain unit root properties. The cointegration test results indicate the presence of a long-run association between globalization, economic growth and energy consumption. Long-run heterogeneous panel elasticities are estimated through the common correlated effects mean group estimator and the augmented mean group estimator. The empirical results reveal that, for most countries, globalization increases energy consumption. In the USA and UK, globalization is negatively correlated with energy consumption. The causality analysis indicates the presence of the globalization-driven energy consumption hypothesis. This empirical analysis suggests insightful policy guidelines for policy makers using globalization as an economic tool to utilize energy efficiently for sustainable economic development in the long run.     

Energy consumption promotes economic growth or economic growth causes energy use in China? A panel data analysis

This study tries to examine the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for twenty-nine provinces of China by employing the panel Granger causality analysis. The econometric methodology used in this paper allows us to untangle the causal nexus between energy consumption and economic growth and helps us to discriminate between competing theories on which hypothesis is applicable to China. Among the main results, it is found that there is no causality in two out of twenty-nine provinces and bidirectional causality is observed in sixteen out of twenty-nine provinces. Unidirectional causality is observed in eleven out of twenty-nine provinces of China. When bootstrap critical values are used, our empirical findings indicate that there is an unidirectional causal link running from real output to energy use for China, implying that economic growth significantly affects energy consumption, and hence, the conservation hypothesis is applicable to China.     

基于误差修正模型的能源消费与经济增长关系研究

基于误差修正模型理论,从变量的平稳性检验、变量间的因果关系检验、变量间的协整检验和误差修正模型角度,利用我国1978～2009年能源消费总量和国民生产总值数据进行实证研究,建立了能源消费与经济增长之间的长期均衡关系模型和误差修正模型;通过格兰杰因果性检验,表明能源消费与经济增长之间存在单项因果关系。数量关系模型的建立,为合理处理二者之间的关系提供了数理依据。     

The impact of financial development,income, energy and trade on carbon emissions: Evidence from the Indian economy

This paper examines the long-run equilibrium and the existence and direction of a causal relationship between carbon emissions, financial development, economic growth, energy consumption and trade openness for India. Our main contribution to the literature on Indian studies lies in the investigation of the causes of carbon emissions by taking into account the role of financial development and using single country data. The results suggest that there is evidence on the long-run and causal relationships between carbon emissions, financial development, income, energy use and trade openness. Financial development has a long-run positive impact on carbon emissions, implying that financial development improves environmental degradation. Moreover, Granger causality test indicates a long-run unidirectional causality running from financial development to carbon emissions and energy use. The evidence suggests that financial system should take into account the environment aspect in their current operations. The results of this study may be of great importance for policy and decision-makers in order to develop energy policies for India that contribute to the curbing of carbon emissions while preserving economic growth.