不完全理性、投资者情绪与封闭式基金之谜

本文的主要贡献在于运用不完全理性投资者的情绪解析中国"封闭式基金之谜",并且论证投资者情绪是资产定价的重要因素。首先通过国内数据检验封闭式基金价格的过度波动说明国内投资者的不完全理性;其次提出了对LST(1991)的改进方法,通过提出假说与统计论证,解释了尽管国内封闭式基金的投资者结构与美国的不同,却有和LST类似的实证结果;进而利用其他反映情绪的指标间接证明封闭式基金折价是情绪指标;最后,检验情绪对市场收益的长期反向影响(长期收益反转)和情绪对短期市场收益的正向影响(短期收益惯性),论证了投资者情绪是资产定价的重要因素。     

总投资和未来收益率的长期关系及影响机制*——基于贝叶斯估计方法的实证分析

本文利用2000—2015年中国上市公司季度数据,采用贝叶斯估计方法实证研究总投资和未来收益率间的长期关系,并从投资者情绪视角探究了二者间的微观影响机制。实证结果显示：第一,短期内总投资的不断增加导致了未来收益率的下降,并且这种负向作用长期内显著增加;第二,在总投资能预期到现金流冲击的情况下,投资者情绪因素解释了总投资与未来收益率间的负向效应问题。     

Dynamic asset pricing model with heterogeneous sentiments

The systematic and important role of investor sentiment has been supported by some recent empirical and theoretical literatures. In this paper, we present a dynamic asset pricing model with heterogeneous sentiments and we find that the equilibrium stock price is the wealth-share-weighted average of the stock prices that would prevail in an economy with one sentiment investor only. Moreover, heterogeneous sentiments induce fluctuations in the wealth distribution, which increases stock return volatility and induces mean reversion in stock returns. The model offers a partial explanation for the financial anomaly of mean reversion.     

Investor sentiment,information and asset pricing model

We present an asset pricing model with investor sentiment and information, which shows that the investor sentiment has a systematic and significant impact on the asset price. The equilibrium price's rational term drives the asset price to the rational, and the sentiment term leads to the asset price deviating from it. In our model, the proportion of sentiment investors and the information quality could amplify the sentiment shock on the asset price. Finally, the information is fully incorporated into prices when sentiment investors learn from prices. The model could offer a partial explanation of some financial anomalies: price bubbles, high volatility, asset prices' momentum effect and reversal effect.     

Stochastic investor sentiment,crowdedness and deviation of asset prices from fundamentals

This study constructs a theoretical model to address how stochastic investor sentiment affects investor's crowdedness, and how stochastic investor sentiment and crowdedness affect asset prices. An asset pricing model incorporating stochastic investor sentiment and crowdedness is developed, which can provide efficient explanations for the deviations of asset prices from fundamentals and the maverick risk of investors. This model indicates that the optimistic (pessimistic) investor sentiment and the long (short) crowdedness caused by optimistic (pessimistic) sentimental investors can push asset price above (below) fundamental value. Also, the sentimental investors who are wrong and alone would take the maverick risk. Our results are consistent with the idea that investor sentiment and investor behavior matter for the asset prices and the deviations of asset prices from fundamentals.     

Rate‐of‐return Parity in Experimental Asset Markets*

This paper applies experimental methods to evaluate the completeness of arbitrage and rate‐of‐return parity in simultaneous asset markets in which the assets are denominated in different currencies. Two assets, which return uncertain, but known, dividends in each trading period, are traded over 20 periods, after which the asset has no value. Results indicate that risk‐neutral rate‐of‐return parity is a strong predictor of relative asset prices when assets have common expected dividends and the expected dividends have common variances. The predictive power of risk‐neutral rate‐of‐return parity is reduced as the assets become differentiated.     

Sentiment asset pricing model with consumption

We present an asset pricing model by incorporating investor sentiment. The sentiment equilibrium price could be decomposed to the rational term and the sentiment term, and the investor sentiment has a systematic and significant impact on the risky asset price. In the model, the sentiment term has a wealth-weighted average structure and the investor's wealth proportion could amplify the sentiment shock on the asset price. The model could offer a partial explanation of some financial anomalies in the stock market: the phenomenon of savings transfer to the stock market, pricing bubble and high volatility.     

Two-period trading sentiment asset pricing model with information

We present a dynamic asset pricing model with investor sentiment and information, which shows that the investor sentiment plays a systematic and important role in the asset prices and the information is gradually incorporated into prices. The model has an analytical solution to the sentiment equilibrium price. We find that sentiment trading quantity not only increases the market liquidity, but also causes the asset prices' overreaction if the intensity of sentiment demand is more than a constant value. Therefore, the continuing overreactions result in a short-term momentum and a long-term reversal. The model could offer a partial explanation to some financial anomalies such as price bubbles, high volatility, asset prices' overreaction and so on.     

Stock return autocorrelations and predictability in the Chinese stock market—Evidence from threshold quantile autoregressive models

This paper applies the threshold quantile autoregressive model to study stock return autocorrelations and predictability in the Chinese stock market from 2005 to 2014. The results show that the Shanghai A-share stock index has significant negative autocorrelations in the lower regime and has significant positive autocorrelations in the higher regime. It attributes that Chinese investors overreact and underreact in two different states. These results are similar when we employ individual stocks. Besides, we investigate stock return autocorrelations by different stock characteristics, including liquidity, volatility, market to book ratio and investor sentiment. The results show autocorrelations are significantly large in the middle and higher regimes of market to book ratio and volatility. Psychological biases can result into return autocorrelations by using investor sentiment proxy since autocorrelations are significantly larger in the middle and higher regime of investor sentiment. The empirical results show that predictability exists in the Chinese stock market.     

Investor sentiment and the financial crisis: a sentiment-based portfolio theory perspective

The article proposes a portfolio model subjected to a constraint that captures the investor’s goal, with maximum estimation of expected return that is affected by investor sentiment. And we give a solution of the portfolio model by exploring the geometric features. Furthermore, we discuss the relationship between investor sentiment and the financial crisis by analysing the optimal allocation. The results show that: when investor sentiment is low enough, the investor should reject the investment, this condition leads the depression financial market to prevail, then the financial crisis erupts; when investor sentiment is modest, the financial crisis is difficult to erupt unless the decline of investor sentiment is quick and deep; but there is a special status that the financial crisis is caused by other factors rather than by investor sentiment; and only improving investor sentiment cannot move away from the financial crisis.     

Monetary policy and asset prices

The purpose of this paper is study the effect of monetary policy on asset prices. We study the properties of a monetary model in which a real asset is valued for its rate of return and for its liquidity. We show that money is essential if and only if real assets are scarce, in the precise sense that their supply is not sufficient to satisfy the demand for liquidity. Our model generates a clear connection between asset prices and monetary policy. When money grows at a higher rate, inflation is higher and the return on money decreases. In equilibrium, no arbitrage amounts to equating the real return of both objects. Therefore, the price of the asset increases in order to lower its real return. This negative relationship between inflation and asset returns is in the spirit of research in finance initiated in the early 1980s.     

The influence of investment experience on market prices: laboratory evidence

We run laboratory experiments to analyze the impact of prior investment experience on price efficiency in asset markets. Before subjects enter the asset market they gain either no, positive, or negative investment experience in an investment game. To get a comprehensive picture about the role of experience we implement two asset market designs. One is prone to inefficient pricing, exhibiting bubble and crash patterns, while the other exhibits efficient pricing. We find that (i) both, positive and negative, experience gained in the investment game lead to efficient pricing in both market settings. Further, we show that (ii) the experience effect dominates potential effects triggered by positive and negative sentiment generated by the investment game. We conjecture that experiencing changing price paths in the investment game can create a higher sensibility on changing fundamentals (through higher salience) among subjects in the subsequently run asset market.     

Liquidity-adjusted conditional capital asset pricing model

This paper derives a liquidity-adjusted conditional two-moment capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and a liquidity-adjusted conditional three-moment CAPM respectively based on theory of stochastic discount factor. The liquidity-adjusted conditional two-moment CAPM shows that a security's conditional expected excess return consists of three parts: its conditional expected liquidity cost, the systemic risk premium and the liquidity risk premium. The liquidity-adjusted conditional three-moment CAPM shows that a security's conditional expected excess return depends on its conditional expected liquidity cost, the conditional covariance between its return and the market return, the conditional covariance between its liquidity cost and the market liquidity cost, and the conditional coskewness of its return and the market return.     

Higher order expectations in sentiment asset pricing model

In the spirit of beauty contests, we study the effect of higher order expectations on sentiment asset pricing. The sentiment asset pricing model with higher order expectations shows that, in general the higher sentiment causes the higher price, but, higher order expectations contribute to smoother price path and defend the impact of sentiment. Regarding the problem of taking higher order or first order, the investors with second order can survive in a specific area where sentiment is rather optimistic or pessimistic and investors with first order expectations are the majority.     

An examination of the economic significance of stock return predictability in UK stock returns

We explore the out-of-sample performance of domestic UK asset allocation strategies that use forecasts of expected returns from a linear predictive regression and those that are implied by asset pricing models such as the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) or arbitrage pricing theory (APT). Our findings suggest that using forecasts of expected returns from the predictive regression generate significant benefits in out-of-sample performance. We find the performance of the strategies using expected return forecasts implied by the CAPM or APT is lower than the predictive regression strategy. However, with binding investment constraints, the performance of the APT matches that of the predictive regression.     

Risk index based models for portfolio adjusting problem with returns subject to experts' evaluations

This paper discusses a portfolio adjusting problem with additional risk assets and a riskless asset in the situation where security returns are given by experts' evaluations rather than historical data. Uncertain variables are employed to describe the security returns. Using expected value and risk index as measurements of portfolio return and risk respectively, we propose two portfolio optimization models for an existing portfolio in two cases, taking minimum transaction lot, transaction cost, and lower and upper bound constraints into account. In one case the riskless asset can be both borrowed and lent freely, and in another case the riskless asset can only be lent and the borrowing of riskless asset is not allowed. The adjusting models are converted into their crisp equivalents, enabling the users to solve them with currently available programming solvers. For the sake of illustration, numerical examples in two cases are also provided. The results show that under the same predetermined maximum tolerable risk level the expected return of the optimal portfolio is smaller when the riskless asset can only be lent than when the riskless asset can be both borrowed and lent freely.     

委托代理制下基金经理人的信息优势与绩效——基于中国台湾地区的实证研究

在共同基金产业快速成长条件下,基金经理人能否取得良好绩效成为一个重要的研究课题。本文以公开信息依赖程度来探讨委托代理制下基金经理人是否具有私有信息优势,并因而获利。研究结果是：第一,公开信息依赖度可以正向解释定价误差,显示公开信息依赖度可作为情绪指标;第二,高公开信息依赖度会伴随高报酬,亦即低公开信息依赖度（高情绪）会预测长期的负报酬率;第三,公开信息依赖度低是由于基金经理人利用投资人情绪而短期获利所致;第四,不同公开信息依赖度情况下,投资人对于高风险的股票会给予不同的评价;第五,利用公开信息依赖度敏感度来建立投资组合,可以有效增加投资人的投资绩效。     

The Role of Market Sentiment in Asset Allocations and Stock Returns

Abstract

The authors investigate the role of mutual fund flows in incorporating market sentiment into asset prices. They show that retail investors adjust their investments among mutual fund categories in response to changes in market sentiment. Consistent with sentiment-induced price pressure through fund flows, they further find that firms favored by mutual funds, such as large-cap, dividend payers, and firms with high institutional ownership are sensitive to market sentiment. The authors construct a pricing factor representing sentiment risk and find that the sentiment factor is significant in standard asset pricing models and robust to various sorting procedure.     

Information disclosure and exchange media

When commitment is lacking, intertemporal trade is facilitated with the use of exchange media—interpreted broadly to include monetary and collateral assets. We study the properties of a model commonly used to motivate monetary exchange, extended to include a physical asset whose expected short-run return is subject to a news shock, but whose expected long-run return is stable. The nondisclosure of news enhances the asset?s property as an exchange medium, and generally improves social welfare. When a nondisclosure policy is infeasible, the framework admits a role for government debt, including fiat money. When lump-sum taxation is not permitted, fiat money may still improve welfare—but only if its circulation is supported by a cash-in-advance constraint.     

Growth Optimal Investment Strategy: The Impact of Reallocation Frequency and Heavy Tails

The strategy to maximize the long‐term growth rate of final wealth (maximum expected log strategy, maximum geometric mean strategy, Kelly criterion) is based on probability theoretic underpinnings and has asymptotic optimality properties. This article reviews the allocation of wealth in a two‐asset economy with one risky asset and a risk‐free asset. It is also shown that the optimal fraction to be invested in the risky asset (i) depends on the length of the basic return period and (ii) is lower for heavy‐tailed log returns than for light‐tailed log returns.