Russian oil: the role of the sector in Russia's economy

Russia's oil sector is critical to the country's overall economic development at present and may affect the whole Russian economy in the next several years. Nevertheless, like all other energy sectors in the Russian Federation, it faces a number of problems, including low domestic prices, a poor regulatory framework, little competition, underinvestment and environmental failure. There is little know‐ledge of the real needs and problems of the sector, including high production costs, weak transport infrastructure, low investment and obsolete technical equipment, but instead there is permanent political pressure to increase the tax burden. In this context the analysis presented in the article contributes to ongoing discussions and presents a number of numerical estimations relating to the current situation of the oil sector in Russia, including overall sector revenue, cost estimates, total tax burden, present level of investment etc., and simulations of the situation in the sector under different future oil price scenarios.     

Rooted in Violence: Civil War,International Trade and the Expansion of Palm Oil in Colombia

Internal armed conflict severely inhibits economic growth according to a prominent set of civil war literature. Similarly, emerging scholarship finds that civil war inhibits processes of economic globalisation which are argued to produce economic growth. A case in point is international trade, which is reportedly stymied by intra-state war. In contrast, this article employs a critical theoretical framework which acknowledges the often violent tendencies of globalised capitalism. By analysing Colombia's palm oil industry, this article argues that civil war violence can facilitate international trade. In the case study which is presented, violence perpetrated by Colombia's public armed forces and right-wing paramilitaries has enabled the palm oil sector to enter and compete in the globalised economy. This includes processes of forced displacement, which have acquired land for palm oil cultivation, and violence directed at civil groups deemed inimical to the interests of the palm oil sector. By employing a micro-level approach, this article attempts to isolate violent trends related to palm oil cultivation in Meta, the largest African palm-growing region in Colombia. An attempt is therefore made to give an empirically informed account of how violence in Colombia's civil war is facilitating palm oil exports.     

Cyclical fiscal rules for oil-exporting countries

Budget-balance tax-gap rules are preferred to other fiscal policy rules to stabilize the macroeconomic volatility and welfare in oil-exporting countries. The output-inflation trade-off is of particular concern for oil exporters relative to non-oil commodity exporters due to the pass through of oil prices into headline inflation which warrants fiscal reaction to crude oil revenue. This result is robust to several instruments satisfying the rule but with reduced efficiency for those instruments that impact potential output such as government investment and capital taxes. These rules are desirable for fixed exchange rate regimes but are unable to achieve the same degree of stability as when coordinated with inflation-targeting monetary policy. Even under optimal inflation-targeting regimes, the adoption of budget-balance tax-gap rules can produce reductions in macroeconomic volatility and welfare gains.     

Nepal's civil war and the changing sources of income: The role of sectoral shifts and remittances in mitigation and recovery

Given the increased worldwide unrest and a large number of displaced individuals, understanding the economic impacts of civil war has been the subject of growing attention by academics and policymakers. The 10‐year civil war in Nepal from 1996 to 2006 provides an opportunity to assess the impact of civil unrest on income sources and remittance patterns. In this study, we examine the changes in household income generating processes over the period of the Nepali civilwar. Using survey data from the Nepal Living Standards Survey (NLSS) in 1995/1996 and 2010/2011, we observe household income and remittance patterns before and after the civil war. Specifically, we employ a difference‐in‐difference estimator that focuses on the heterogeneity in civil unrest within Nepal to examine how the civil war impacted the sources of household income. Within the context of a slower growth rate of income after the revolution for those in the hardest hit districts, we find that there was also a change in the composition of income sources. In particular, our results suggest that there was a shift from a reliance on wages in the nonagricultural sector to wages in the agricultural sector; that there was a shift from external remittances to internal remittances; and finally that home production—the market value of items produced and consumed within the household—may be taking the place of income in regions hit by unrest. “People living in zones of war are maimed, killed, and see their property destroyed. They may be displaced or prevented from attending school or earning a living. To the extent that these costs are borne unequally across groups, the conflict could intensify economic inequality as well as poverty. The destruction (and deferred accumulation) of both human and physical capital also hinder macroeconomic performance, combining with any effects of war on institutions and technology to impact national income growth. Understanding the economic legacies of conflict is important to the design of post‐conflict recovery” (Blattman & Miguel, 2010).     

Resource Price,Macroeconomic Distortions,and Public Outlay: Evidence from Oil-Exporting Countries

This study examines the repercussions of oil price and macroeconomic distortions on government expenditure in 15 oil-exporting countries. Adapting the Pooled Mean Group analytical approach, the long-run findings are indicative of a blend of the Dutch disease and rent-seeking hypothesis of the resource curse theory in oil-exporting countries. These effects crucially impact on the poor growth of the real sector in these countries, needed for diversification of their revenue base. Furthermore, both resource curses account for one of the reasons why fiscal deficits in oil-exporting countries have been on the rise. The country short-run coefficient for the balance of payment, economic growth, and exchange rate also supports the Dutch disease and rent-seeking hypothesis mix found in the long run. Also, the significant negative impact of oil rents in most countries shows that oil-exporting countries have been making attempts at diversifying their income sources; this is because proceeds from oil cannot be relied upon to adequately finance growing government expenditure, due to the volatile nature of oil prices, thus suggesting also that the volatility hypothesis is valid for most oil-exporting countries in the short run.     

Aggressive oil extraction and precautionary saving: Coping with volatility

The effects of stochastic oil demand on optimal oil extraction paths and tax, spending and government debt policies are analyzed when the oil demand schedule is linear and preferences quadratic. Without prudence, optimal oil extraction is governed by the Hotelling rule and optimal budgetary policies by the tax and consumption smoothing principle. Volatile oil demand brings forward oil extraction and induces a bigger government surplus. With prudence, the government depletes oil reserves even more aggressively and engages in additional precautionary saving financed by postponing spending and bringing taxes forward, especially if it has substantial monopoly power on the oil market, gives high priority to the public spending target, is very prudent, and future oil demand has high variance. Uncertain economic prospects induce even higher precautionary saving and, if non-oil revenue shocks and oil revenue shocks are positively correlated, even more aggressive oil extraction. In contrast, prudent governments deliberately underestimate oil reserves which induce less aggressive oil depletion and less government saving, but less so if uncertainty about reserves and oil demand are positively correlated.     

Oman's trade and opportunities of integration with the Asian economies

This paper investigates the determinants of trade between Oman and its major Asian trading partners in order to gauge the impact of the process of trade liberalisation. The empirical findings based on the gravity model indicate that Oman's imports from Asia are strongly determined by Asian population, Asian per capita gross domestic product (GDP), real exchange rates, distance and Oman's per capita GDP. The results also provide strong evidence that Oman's oil exports to Asia are strongly and equally determined by Asia's and Oman's population. Our findings reveal that while distance is not a friction to Oman's oil exports, it has a weak regressive effect on non-oil exports. Our results also indicate a negative but statistically insignificant effect of trade liberalisation on non-oil exports. These findings certainly have policy implications in terms of Oman–Asia trade relationship and in particular the need for more policy intervention to liberalise the non-oil exports sector so as to facilitate its wider integration within Asia.     

Siamese Twin Troubles: Structural and Regulatory Transformations in Unequal Thailand

This paper takes an institutional approach to inequality in Thailand by exploring the country's structural and regulatory transformations. It discusses how Thailand's transition from agriculture to industry and services has been impeded by both the demand and supply sides of government subsidies since the 1950s. The relative failure of structural transformation has slowed down economic catch-up and widened the well-being gap between those inside and outside the agricultural sector. Furthermore, while regulatory transformation has mitigated state-led malaise in certain Asian economies, post-1997 reform in Thailand has incentivized unconventional political actors, such as academics, medical doctors and civil society leaders, to make collective efforts in toppling elected governments in exchange for gaining selection into oversight agencies. The case of Thailand indicates how regulatory reform may create perverse incentives that adversely affect democratization, decentralization, competition, and taxation. Dealing with inequality therefore requires a big push toward progressive structural and regulatory transformations altogether.     

The sustainability of economic transformation

The paper analyzes the feasibility of sustaining both macroeconomic stability and political support during economic transformation. Macroeconomic stability requires that state sector losses plus public infrastructure investment be financed by tax revenue plus any external assistance. Political sustainability depends on the income gains and losses experienced by three groups—state sector workers, private sector workers, and private savers/investors. The aggregate income gains from allowing heterogeneous workers to make occupational choices consistent with their comparative advantages can outweigh or significantly offset the short-run economic efficiency costs of maintaining political support for the transformation. Successful transformation may depend on external assistance, but this need will diminish over time.     

The ‘Value’ of Europe: The Political Economy of Culture in the European Community

During the 1970s and 1980s the “cultural sector” became one of the primary motors for wealth creation in the European Community. At the European and national scales, a group of actors helped transform Europe's vast array of practices and services (tourism, heritage, books, audio-visual products, etc.) into “cultural industries” and pushed the EC to develop a common cultural policy to support these industries. Documenting these changes at the European scale, I argue that the perceived impact of cultural policy for particular national economic competitiveness was also significant. Italian MEPs and members of Italy's national government were especially important, as they fought to protect the country's historical heritage and promote tourism. France pushed the strongest and I show how that country's efforts were primarily intended to protect its audio-visual and publishing industries from the EC internal market's liberalisation policies, which were vocally supported by Britain because they would have served that county's national economic interests.     

Cambodia: Rapid Growth with Weak Institutions

This paper examines Cambodia's socioeconomic development since the early 1990s peace settlement. The country's economic growth has arguably been the fastest among post‐conflict societies, driven by the credible restoration of peace and security, large public and private capital inflows, economic openness, reasonably prudent macroeconomic management, and a dynamic, integrating neighborhood. A legacy of history and small size is that the government has limited policy space, although this has not necessarily retarded economic development. We also highlight some key challenges, including rising inequality, uneven spatial development, weak institutions, and high levels of corruption. Looking forward, we highlight the importance of strengthening supply side capabilities, broadening the benefits of growth, and developing stronger institutions and property rights.     

Oil booms and inequality in Iran

We study the response of income inequality to positive per capita oil and gas revenue shocks in Iran. Using historical data from 1973 to 2016 and vector autoregression (VAR) as well as vector error correction (VECM) model‐based impulse‐response functions, we find a positive and statistically significant response of income inequality to oil booms. We also explore possible channels through which oil booms may increase inequality, including private sector credit growth, construction investment, international trade (imports) and real economic output. We find that following an oil boom, higher imports, private sector credit growth, and real economic output can explain the increased income gap to a certain degree in Iran's oil‐based economy. Our analysis can help policymakers evaluate and accommodate the possible positive or negative effects of inequality in Iran resulting from the 2016 lifting of the embargo against the country.     

Thailand's Policy Challenges

Thailand's real gross domestic product growth has fallen to a permanently lower trend, making it the worst performer in the Southeastern Asian region. The export sector, the country's long‐standing growth engine, has sputtered due to the declining competitiveness of the manufacturing sector. Chronic political instability during the last two decades has resulted in the adoption of short‐sighted policies, in particular, populist policies designed specifically to garner votes rather than improve the long‐term productivity of the business sector. The military coup was expected to restore political stability and end costly populist policies introduced by elected civil governments. Unfortunately, as the military government develops its long‐term political aspirations, it, too, seeks the assistance of populist policies to ensure its political success. Thailand has promulgated laws and regulations to ensure fiscal discipline, but it has yet to be seen whether the letter of the law can help prevent such populist policies in practice.     

Indonesian Growth Dynamics

This paper provides an analytical narrative of Indonesian economic growth over the past two decades. Particular attention is paid to the key economic crisis events of 1997–1998 and 2008–2009, and how and why Indonesia's response to them was completely different. We emphasize and illustrate how the years 1997–1998 were a watershed in the country's economic history and political economy. We underline the country's generally good economic performance, especially the rapid recovery over the past decade, while also highlighting the fact that its economic growth has never quite matched that of the very high‐growth East Asian economies. The final section analyzes some key policy challenges, including embedding reforms in a highly fluid political environment, macroeconomic management, and “connectivity” and regional (subnational) development.     

The Australian Economy on the Hinge of History

The article traces the origins of the Australian economic crisis of the 1980s, and suggests that many problems can be related to the special character of the country's long-term economic development. The dominance of two exceptional commodities, wool and gold, created a remarkably high standard of living in the nineteenth century. But there were dangers. High labour productivity was achieved without the underpinnings of modem technology, and it was difficult to achieve sustained industrialisation from a high income base in a small, open society. Further, the efficiency of traditional commodity production helped create an inward-looking urban-industrial sector. Gradually fundamental change in the composition of global trade has marginalised Australia's traditional export sector. The urgent need now is for an aggressive exploitation of the country's considerable resources in science and technology. If this is achieved the 1980s could see a basic shift in Australia's economic history.     

Mortgage Credit: Denmark’s Financial Capacity Building Regime

ABSTRACT

The integration of small states into the international financial system has constrained their ability to enact the traditional macroeconomic tools of fiscal and monetary policy. As systems of mortgage credit are tightly integrated into global capital markets and influence flows of capital between states, this paper uses Denmark as a case study to explore whether domestic mortgage sector reforms have been used to build financial capacity to compensate for the loss of economic policy autonomy. The results of this analysis suggest that the Danish government has actively used mortgage credit to meet three specific macroeconomic objectives since the 1980s: (1) mortgage credit was restricted in the 1980s to resolve Denmark's persistent balance of payments problem; (2) liberalisations of mortgage credit in the 1990s and 2000s allowed the Danish government to stimulate the economy via privatised/house-price Keynesianism and reduce their sovereign debt burden; and (3) mortgage credit has been used as a form of privatised monetary policy, allowing Denmark to break-free from the ‘iron-cage’ of the Mundell-Fleming trilemma. It is in these specific ways that the Danish government has used mortgage reforms to achieve macroeconomic policy autonomy and navigate economic challenges whilst adhering to the constraints of the international financial system.     

Industrial Policy and Islamic Finance

Debates on industrial policy have typically focused on interventions in the ‘real’ sector to facilitate the transformation of a resources-based economy to one that is based on manufacturing. Although the financial sector has always figured strongly in these discussions, its development, or rather repression, is almost always considered in the context of serving the ‘real’ sector. In contrast, this paper contributes to the emerging literature on government policies to develop financial sectors into independent and internationally competitive sources of economic growth on their own right through an analysis of the development of Islamic finance in Malaysia. The paper argues that the emergence of Islamic finance in Malaysia, and the country's evolution into a key player of the sector in the global market, can be attributed to developmental efforts or industrial policies adopted by the government. The case of Islamic finance in Malaysia suggests the continuing relevance of industrial policy for developmental purposes. More importantly, it demonstrates that developing countries can chart a path towards services-led growth, the next frontier in economic development.     

Manufacturing FDI and economic growth: evidence from Asian economies

Previous empirical studies on inward foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth generate mixed results. This article suggests that the ambiguous results might be caused by the use of total FDI. We study the heterogeneous effects of different sector-level FDI inflows on host country's economic growth. Data from 12 Asian economies over the period of 1987 to 1997 are employed. Strong evidence shows that FDI in manufacturing sector has a significant and positive effect on economic growth in the host economies. FDI inflows in nonmanufacturing sectors do not play a significant role in enhancing economic growth. Furthermore, without the decomposition of total FDI inflows, the effect of manufacturing FDI on host country's economic growth is understated by at least 48%.     

Getting help from abroad: The macroeconomics of foreign direct investment in infrastructure in low‐income countries

Infrastructure financing needs in most low‐income countries are substantial, but funding for such needs is only partly covered by national governments and aid donors. This paper introduces foreign direct investment (FDI) through public–private partnerships as a source of infrastructure financing in low‐income countries. A two‐sector open economy model is developed to assess the macroeconomic performance of FDI in infrastructure. With efficient foreign investment, an increase in revenue‐generating infrastructure investment boosts productivity and spurs private investment while stabilizing domestic prices. A direct comparison between infrastructure financed by domestic versus foreign investment shows that foreign investment creates higher output growth and welfare gains and is preferable to domestically sourced investment, irrespective of the underlying financing instrument the domestic economy is employing. FDI in non‐revenue‐generating infrastructure is also analyzed and discussed.     

Asymmetric impacts of insurance premiums on the non-oil GDP: some new empirical evidence

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we study the influence of insurance premium on the non-oil gross domestic product in Saudi Arabia. We implement the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lags. The results show that the relationships between insurance premiums and non-oil gross domestic product manifest a nonlinear behaviour. In other words, insurance premiums via positive and negative shocks lead to an increase of growth in the non-oil sector in the long term, whereas the lagged level shocks negatively affect the non-oil GDP in the short run. In addition, the examination of the multiplier effect suggests that positive cumulative changes in insurance premiums and inflation can effect much larger changes in non-oil GDP, while shocks in government spending have a symmetric effect on non-oil GDP growth.