Controlling deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon: Regional economic impacts and land-use change

Brazil confirmed targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in 2008, including an 80% reduction in deforestation in the Amazon by 2020. With this in mind, we investigated the trade-off between environmental conservation and economic growth in the Amazon. The aim of this study is to project the economic losses and land-use changes resulting from a policy to control deforestation and the rise in land productivity that is necessary to offset those losses. We developed a Dynamic Interregional Computable General Equilibrium Model for 30 Amazon regions with a land module allowing conversion between types of land. The results have shown that the most affected regions would be soybeans and cattle producers as well as regions dominated by family farms. To offset these impacts, it was estimated that an annual gain of land productivity of approximately 1.4% would be required.     

Potential hazards of land policy: Conservation,rural development and fire use in the Brazilian Amazon

With growing awareness of fire hazard as an environmental threat within tropical rainforests, the state of Brazil initiated a set of fire control policies aimed at monitoring and ameliorating fire hazard in the Amazon region. These policies were developed in the aftermath of large-scale fire events and reflect a conservationist discourse that responded to internal as well as international environmental concerns. In doing so, the policies have framed the “fire problem” around those who use fire in their land use practices, in particular small-scale agriculturalists. Yet, land policy in general has repeatedly failed to address the institutional arrangements which compel small-scale farmers to use fire in their agricultural practices and the underlying development processes that have made the landscape more vulnerable to accidental spread of fire. Using regional level data on small-scale farmers, I suggest that the conservation oriented approach of fire policy may not be enough to curtail accidental fire events and instead that the fire issue needs to be positioned within rural development as well.     

Land occupations and deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon

Researchers are increasingly interested in understanding the impact of contentious social processes on land change. In the Brazilian Amazon, there are often contentious interactions between landholders defending private property rights and squatters who have the right to occupy land that is deemed unproductive. Previous studies suggest that the contentious social processes inherent in the Brazilian land tenure and land reform system cause a significant amount of deforestation. An environment of insecure land title, and policies that value deforested land over forested land, among other factors, encourage both landholders and squatters to deforest more land than is necessary for pasture or crop production. This paper examines the impact that land occupations have on deforestation at the municipal scale across the Brazilian Legal Amazon, from 2000 to 2009. We show that land occupations have a direct influence on deforestation. We use spatial analysis as well to show that land occupations have a spatial component in the effect on deforestation: occupations in one municipality affect deforestation in adjacent areas.     

Ethanol expansion and indirect land use change in Brazil

In this paper we analyze the indirect land use change (ILUC) effects of ethanol production expansion in Brazil through the use of an inter-regional, bottom-up, dynamic general equilibrium model calibrated with the 2005 Brazilian I-O table. A new methodology to deal with ILUC effects is developed, using a transition matrix of land uses calibrated with Agricultural Censuses data. Agriculture and land use are modeled separately in each of 15 Brazilian regions with different agricultural mix. This regional detail captures a good deal of the differences in soil, climate and history that cause particular land to be used for particular purposes.Brazilian land area data distinguish three broad types of agricultural land use, Crop, Pasture, and Plantation Forestry. Between one year and the next the model allows land to move between those categories, or for unused land to convert to one of these three, driven initially by the transition matrix, changing land supply for agriculture between years. The transition matrix shows Markov probabilities that a particular hectare of land used in one year for some use would be in another use next period. These probabilities are modified endogenously in the model according to the average unit rentals of each land type in each region.We ask whether biofuel expansion is consistent with new laws, limiting forest clearing in Brazil. A simulation with ethanol expansion scenario is performed for year 2020, in which land supply is allowed to increase only in states located on the agricultural frontier. Results suggest that each new hectare of sugar cane requires only 0.14 ha of new land, with another 0.47 ha converted from pasture use. Hence policies limiting deforestation are unlikely to prevent greater ethanol production. Finally, regional differences in sugarcane productivity are found to be important elements in ILUC effects of sugar cane expansion.     

基于马尔科夫模型的土地格局变化预测——以青岛市为例

在遥感和地理信息系统的支持下,利用1995、1998和2000年的Landsat-TM假彩色合成影像作为信息源,获取青岛市土地利用类型的转化数据,结合马尔科夫过程模型确定相应的转移概率矩阵,再次应用马尔科夫过程模拟土地利用的未来演变趋势.结果表明,随着经济的迅速发展,研究区内耕地的变化最大,主要转变为林地和城乡工矿居住用地。     

Land change in the Brazilian Savanna (Cerrado), 1986–2002: Comparative analysis and implications for land-use policy

The Brazilian Cerrado, a biodiverse savanna ecoregion covering 1.8 million km² south and east of the Amazon rainforest, is in rapid decline because of the expansion of modern agriculture. Previous studies of Cerrado land-use and land-cover (LULC) change imply spatial homogeneity, report widely varying rates of land conversion, use ambiguous LULC categories, and generally do not attempt to validate results. This study addresses this gap in the literature by analyzing moderate-resolution, multi-spectral satellite remote sensing data from 1986 to 2002 in two regions with identical underlying drivers. Unsupervised classification by the ISODATA algorithm indicates that Cerrado was converted to agro-pastoral land covers in 31% (3646 km²) of the study region in western Bahia and 24% (3011 km²) of the eastern Mato Grosso study region, while nearly 40% (4688 km² and 5217 km², respectively) of each study region remained unchanged. Although aggregate land change is similar, large and contiguous fragments persist in western Bahia, while smaller fragments remain in eastern Mato Grosso. These findings are considered in the current context of Cerrado land-use policy, which is dominated by the conservation set-aside and command-control policy models. The spatial characteristics of Cerrado remnants create considerable obstacles to implement the models; an alternative approach, informed by countryside biogeography, may encourage collaboration between state officials and farmer-landowners toward conservation land-use policies.     

Ideal type theories and concrete cases in land science: A multi-step appraisal of the evolutionary theory of land rights in Madre de Dios,Peru

The relationships of regional integration, land tenure and land use have all received substantial previous attention. Nonetheless, existing theoretical frameworks tend to presume ideal types of land tenure in understanding the impacts of regional integration on change in institutions and land use. We therefore evaluate the evolutionary theory of land rights (ETLR) for the case of Madre de Dios, Peru. This is a useful case since tenure for agricultural lands is private individual as the ETLR theorizes, but other characteristics, such as the presence of forest extractivism, depart from the assumptions of the ETLR. We pursue a multi-step analysis of key relationships of the ETLR, focusing particularly on the linkages between highway paving as an indicator of regional integration, titling as a measure of tenure formality, multiple indicators of land market engagement, and land uses with diverse ramifications for ecological sustainability. Findings for the different steps partially support the ETLR for the case of Madre de Dios. Disconfirmation however sometimes occurs due to geographic accidents rather than due to truly contrasting findings. We conclude by discussing the need to identify characteristics of empirical cases that do and do not fit the expectations of theories in order to better evaluate the applicability of theory for analysis and policy.     

Farmer-specific relationships between land use change and landscape factors: Introducing agents in empirical land use modelling

Traditional empirical land use change models generally assume one average land use decision-maker. Multi-Agent System (MAS) models, on the other hand, acknowledge existence of different types of agents, but their poor empirical embedding remains a serious handicap. This paper demonstrates how agent information can also be incorporated into empirical, biophysical land use models.     

Public participation and organizational change in Wisconsin land use management

This article explores the issues that arise when land use management organizations change their previous ways of relating to the public. I introduce an analytic framework for evaluating organizational changes that are grounded in participatory planning and decision making. Using a case study of a recent planning initiative of the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, I examine dynamics of trust, civic capacities, personal demands, history of working relationships, and interest in the issue at hand. Though preliminary, the conclusions drawn from this research illustrate how these dynamics may influence the success of participatory planning that reflects organizational change.     

Simulating the impacts of future land use change on soil erosion in the Kasilian watershed,Iran

Predicting soil erosion potential is important in watershed management. A rapidly growing Iranian population and climate change are expected to influence land use and soil sustainability. In recent years, northern Iran has experienced significant land use changes due to internal migration along the Caspian coast and conversion of forests and rangelands. Considering the effect of these changes in the future, the purpose of this study is to forecast land use patterns and investigate soil erosion scenarios using the Revised Universal Loss Equation and Markov Cellular Automata. Data from 1981 to 2011 were used as a baseline to estimate changes that might occur in 2030. The results reveal that the mean erosion potential will increase 45% from the estimated 104.52 t ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ in the baseline period. Moreover, the results indicate that land use change from forest area to settlements will be the most significant factor in erosion induced by land use change, showing the highest correlation among erosional factors. Projecting land use change and its effect on soil erosion indicate that conversion may be unsustainable if change occurs on land that is not suited to the use. The method predicts soil erosion under different scenarios and provides policymakers a basis for altering programs related to land use optimization and urban growth. Those results indicated the necessity of appropriate policies and regulations particularly for limiting land use changes and urban sprawl in areas of unfavorable soil erosion risk factors.     

Deforestation and land use change: sparse data environments

Understanding determinants of land use in developing countries has become a priority for researchers and policy makers with a wide range of interests. For the vast majority of these land use issues, the location of change is as important as its magnitude. This overview paper highlights new economic approaches to modeling land use determinants that combine non‐traditional data sources with novel economic models and econometric techniques. A key feature is that location is central to the analysis. All data elements include an explicit location attribute, estimation techniques include the potential for complications from spatial effects, and results are location‐specific. The paper reviews the theory underlying these models. Since this paper is intended to provide the potential new researcher with an introduction to the challenges of this analysis, we present an overview of how remotely‐sensed data are collected and processed, describe key GIS concepts and identify sources of data for this type of econometric analysis. Finally, selected papers using these techniques are reviewed.     

Mapping mountain diversity: Ethnic minorities and land use land cover change in Vietnam's borderlands

In the complex agro-ecological conditions of Vietnam's northern borderlands, attempts by ethnic minority farmers to create sustainable livelihoods, along with the impacts of state development policies, have direct consequences for land use and land cover (LULC) change. In this paper we analyse the degree to which LULC has changed and diversified from 1999 to 2009 in Lào Cai Province and the underlying relationships with ethnic minority livelihood diversification strategies. We examine the correlation between LULC diversity and various socioeconomic and biophysical proxies using a spatial autoregressive model. Our findings indicate two major changes in LULC: an increase in closed canopy forest and substantial urban growth. LULC diversity increased between 1999 and 2009, suggesting a transition between land uses and/or a diversification of livelihood strategies. Socioeconomic proxies are significant predictors of LULC diversity in both years, while biophysical proxies are only effective predictors in 2009. In-depth interviews regarding state-led policies and ethnic minority livelihoods reveal some of the underlying mechanisms of such LULC transitions and associations.     

经济高速发展时期河南省土地利用变化分析研究

以河南省为研究区,对不同年份的土地利用数据进行分类系统整合,在此基础上,对河南省1996~2009年土地利用类型进行了对比分析,分析得出耕地、城镇村及工矿用地、林地、交通运输用地面积在增加,园地、草地、水域及水利设施用地、其它土地面积在减少,在各类土地类型转换中,林地是变化最为激烈的土地利用类型,其次是其它土地,变化最稳定的地类是交通运输用地,其次是耕地。     

快速经济发展下县级土地利用/覆被空间变化分析

土地利用/覆被变化(LUCC)是人类活动对自然环境施加影响的显著表现形式。本文以案例的形式,运用LUCC度量模型和LUCC转移矩阵分析研究区清新县2001-2007年的LUCC空间格局变化,并对全县土地利用/覆被进行了分区。研究结果表明,清新县2001-2007年面积增加最多的为林地,而减小最多的为耕地,期间全县综合土地利用/覆被动态度为2.77%、土地利用/覆被强度从2.163增至2.172;同时,清新县土地利用/覆被存在着较为明显的空间差异,全县土地利用/覆被区划可分为南部综合服务中心区、中部产业转移区和北部生态脆弱区三个功能区。     

Mapping properties to monitor forests: Landholder response to a large environmental registration program in the Brazilian Amazon

Across the tropics, development banks and conservation donors are investing millions in property mapping and registration projects to improve accountability for deforestation. An evaluation of the effectiveness and accuracy of existing environmental registries is crucial to assure the success of future efforts. This study presents an evaluation of deforestation and registration behavior in response to one of the largest of these property registration programs to date — the Rural Environmental Registry (CAR) in the Amazonian state of Pará. From late 2007 to 2013, approximately 100,000 properties covering 30 million hectares of self-declared claims were entered in this digital registry. We used fixed effects regression models and property level data to assess how registration influenced deforestation on different sizes of properties. Registration had little impact on deforestation behavior, with the exception of a significant reduction on “smallholder” properties in the size range of 100–300 ha. We link this reduction to interacting incentives from forest protection and land regularization policies and suggest that desire to strengthen land claims motivates these landholders’ response to the environmental registry. We also present evidence that some landholders may be registering incomplete or inaccurate parcels into the self-declared system to strategically benefit from policy incentives. Our results for smallholder properties indicate that environmental registries may have potential to facilitate reductions in deforestation if combined with a favorable combination of incentives. However, in places where land tenure is still being negotiated, the utility of environmental registries for forest policy enforcement and research may be limited without ongoing investment to resolve uncertainty around land claims.     

Spatially explicit micro-level modelling of land use change at the rural–urban interface

This paper describes micro‐economic models of land use change applicable to the rural‐urban interface in the US. Use of a spatially explicit micro‐level modelling approach permits the analysis of regional patterns of land use as the aggregate outcomes of many, disparate individual land use decisions distributed across space. In contrast to the models featured by Nelson and Geoghegan, we focus on models that require spatially articulated data on parcel‐level land use changes through time. In characterising the spatially disaggregated models, we highlight issues uniquely related to the management and generation of spatial data and the estimation of micro‐level spatial models.     

Addressing climate change cause and effect on land cover and land use in South Asia

This paper evaluates the role of trade liberalization and agricultural intensification in mitigating climate change cause and effects on land use and emissions using a computable general equilibrium model. Our results indicate that cropland expansion triggered by climate-induced crop productivity changes results in deforestation and increases emissions in South Asia and globally. Global full trade liberalization on all goods is the optimum policy for South Asia despite significant global deforestation, but for the world, unilateral partial trade liberalization on all goods is a more appropriate policy while ensuring a considerable emissions reduction for South Asia. These results indicate that mitigation responses to climate change are location specific and no one trade policy is suitable at the regional and global levels. Lastly, agricultural intensification by improving productivity growth is the best strategy in land-based emissions mitigation, thereby avoiding the transformation of forest and pasture lands for agricultural cultivation both at regional and global levels.     

Quantifying and understanding land cover changes by large and small oil palm expansion regimes in the Peruvian Amazon

With rapid increases in global food demand and production, oil palm expansion constitutes a major emerging challenge for forest conservation in Amazonia and other tropical forest regions. This threat is evident in the Peruvian Amazon, where local and national incentives for oil palm cultivation along with growing large-scale investments translate into accelerated oil palm expansion. Environmental sustainability of oil palm cultivation in the Peruvian Amazon is contingent on policy incentives for expansion onto already-cleared lands instead of biodiverse, high carbon primary rainforests. Previous research indicates that while industrial plantations use less land area than local smallholders, companies have a higher tendency to expand into primary rainforests. However, the motivations behind these differing expansion scenarios remain unclear. In this study we combine data from optical and radar satellite sensors with training information, field discussions, and review of public documents to examine the policy incentives and spatial patterns associated with oil palm expansion by smallholders and industries in one of Peru’s most rapidly changing Amazonian landscapes: the Ucayali region of the city of Pucallpa. Based on our satellite-based land cover change analysis, we found that between 2010 and 2016, smallholders utilized 21,070 ha more land area for oil palm than industries but industrial expansion occurred predominantly in old growth forests (70%) in contrast to degraded lands for smallholders (56%). Our analysis of national policies related to oil palm expansion reveal policy loopholes associated with Peru’s “best land use” classification system that allow for standing forests to undergo large-scale agricultural development with little government oversight. We conclude that both sectors will need careful, real-time monitoring and government engagement to reduce old-growth forest loss and develop successful strategies for mitigating future environmental impacts of oil palm expansion.     

Scenario simulation of land system change in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

Urbanization-induced land use problems have been haunting China’s urban agglomerations ever since the beginning of this period of unparalleled economic progress. The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region is no exception, where coordinated development planning has been implemented by the central government to further resolve attributed problems. Land use simulation models can be used to help governments and planners understand how planning and policies affect the future landscape, by developing sustainable land use strategies which may reasonably balance urbanization and eco-environmental protection. In this paper, we explored the characteristics of historical land use dynamics from 2000 to 2015 in the BTH region and simulated its future land use patterns for 2030 by combining the Dyna-CLUE model with a Markov model to deal with some short comings of existing land use models. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The figure of merits (FoM) based on the method of three-map comparison reached 85.89 %, which indicated that the simulation model has satisfactory accuracy. (2) Land use structures and spatial patterns differed significantly under business as usual (BAU) scenario, cropland protection (CP) scenario and ecological security (ES) scenario, respectively, owing to the variation of the major objectives designed for different scenarios. (3) By scenario analysis and through tradeoffs, the land use mode under the ecological security scenario might be the optimal solution for future coordinated development in the BTH region. These results will provide theoretical basis and meaningful guidance for regional land optimal allocation.