Demand for money in the selected OECD countries: a time series panel data approach and structural breaks

Time series panel data estimation methods are used to estimate the cointegrating equations for the demand for money (M1) for a panel of 11 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries for which consistent quarterly data are available. The effects of financial reforms are analysed with structural break tests and estimates for alternative sub-samples. Our results for the post-reform sub-samples show that the income elasticity of the demand for money has decreased and response to interest rate changes has increased.     

Estimating potential output and the output gap for the euro area: a model-based production function approach

This paper provides an analysis of multivariate unobserved components models for the estimation of potential output and the output gap in the euro area. Bivariate models of output and inflation and multivariate model-based implementations of the production function approach are considered; according to the latter potential output is derived from the permanent components of the factors of production consistent with stable inflation, whereas the output gap results from the combination of the transitory components. This approach allows to measure the contribution of the various factors of production to potential output growth, and to assess the reliability of the output gap estimates. Various alternative statistical specifications for the separation of trend and cycle are considered entertaining different economic hypotheses. The paper also provides an assessment of the reliability of the alternative output gap estimates and analyses their predictive validity by means of a rolling forecast exercise that provides an evaluation of the capability to forecast future inflation. A preliminary version of this paper appeared as EUI working paper ECO2002/09 and was presented at the European Central Bank, the European University Institute, the Growth and Business Cycles in Theory and Practice conference, Manchester UK, 20–21 June 2002, the Common Features in Rio conference, Rio de Janeiro, 29–31 July 2002. We thank the participants, Michael Artis, Gerard Korteweg, Geoff Kenny, Neale Kennedy, Manuel da Mota Freitas Martins, Gerard Ruenstler, and three anonymous Referees for useful discussions and valuable comments. The paper was largely written while the first author was acting as consultant for the ECB. The views expressed in it do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB. All correspondence to Alberto Musso.     

Aggregate production functions,growth economics,and the part‐time tyranny of the identity: a reply to Felipe and McCombie

A recent paper by Jesus Felipe and John McCombie argues that I have understated the importance of the value added identity for conventional estimates of production relationships. This reply seeks to clarify the areas of agreement and disagreement. It suggests that the problems raised by the accounting identity are genuine and deserve to be more widely known, but Felipe and McCombie have sometimes exaggerated the scope of the argument.     

Modelling with flexibility through the business cycle: using a panel smooth transition model to test for the lipstick effect

ABSTRACT

Consumer spending typically declines during periods of economic distress, but observers have noted that lipstick purchases appear to increase during recessions, which is often referred to as the lipstick effect. However, the existence of such effect has remained empirically unconfirmed. Using weekly retail scanner data on lipstick sales from 2006 to 2016 in the United States, we applied a Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) demand model to test the relationship between economic distress and lipstick sales. This flexible demand specification allows regression coefficients to vary as a function of an exogenous macroeconomic variables and fluctuate asymmetrically, non-linearly, and time-varyingly across an unlimited number of regimes. Empirical results show the income elasticity of demand for lipstick decreased rapidly from 0.31 to 0.05 during the 2007–2009 recession, then slowly rebounded to 0.31 by the second quarter of 2014, thus first empirically confirming the existence of the lipstick effect.     

Stock returns and mutual fund flows in the korean financial markets: a system approach

ABSTRACT

This paper investigates dynamic and causal relations between stock returns and mutual fund flows in Korea using a system method that utilizes information from the stock, bond, and money markets. For this purpose, we employ the Dynamic Seemingly Unrelated Regression, the Seemingly Unrelated Regression Error Correction Model, and two causality tests in a system method to account for cross-equation correlations among markets that have a close relationship with one another. Furthermore, we use the information in the variance-covariance matrix of residual to improve the efficiency of the statistical estimates. The empirical evidence from the system method indicates that fund flows do not respond to eliminate deviations from long-run equilibrium, and stock prices cause net fund flows in the Korean market, implying that investors move their money to the securities that yield higher returns to rebalance their investment portfolios in the short-run. Thus, our findings do not support the popular notion of mutual fund flows as the driving force behind rallies in the Korean financial markets.     

Family background and the decision to provide for old age: a siblings approach

The Riester pensions in Germany provide helpful evidence to better understand the determinants of and the barriers to the demand for old-age provision products. The paper argues that families are of key importance in the decision making process to buy such a private pension. Families do not only shape the way we make our financial decisions they can also be a source for cost-effective and reliable information. Depending on certain characteristics some individuals can process this information more easily. Results confirm that individual characteristics, in particular income and education, as well as family characteristics are correlated with Riester ownership. Adding a dynamic element to the analysis I find strong sequential correlations in Riester ownership between siblings. However, these correlations become weaker over time as the number of Riester owners in other social circles grows. Once a critical mass has been reached, positive spillovers can create a social multiplier leading to a higher coverage with private pensions in the future.     

Dealing with preference uncertainty in contingent willingness to pay for a nature protection program: A new approach

In this paper, we propose an alternative preference uncertainty measurement approach where respondents have the option to indicate their willingness to pay (WTP) for a nature protection program either as exact values or intervals from a payment card, depending on whether they are uncertain about their valuation. On the basis of their responses, we then estimate their degree of uncertainty. New within this study is that the respondent's degree of uncertainty is “revealed”, while it is “stated” in those using existing measurement methods. Three statistical models are used to explore the sources of respondent uncertainty. We also present a simple way of calculating the uncertainty adjusted mean WTP, and compare this to the one obtained from an interval regression. Our findings in terms of determinants of preference uncertainty are broadly consistent with a priori expectations. In addition, the uncertainty adjusted mean WTP is quite similar to the one derived from an interval regression. We conclude that our method is promising in accounting for preference uncertainty in WTP answers at little cost to interviewees in terms of time and cognitive effort, on the one hand, and without researcher assumptions regarding the interpretation of degrees of uncertainty reported by respondents, on the other.     

Productivity,innovation strategies and industrial relations in SMEs. Empirical evidence for a local production system in northern Italy

The paper aims to provide an original contribution to evaluating several kinds of relations between four areas of innovation activities – training, technology, organization, ICT (information and communication technologies) – and industrial relations and firm’s economic performance. Quantitative evidence for a SME‐based local production system is provided by exploiting two datasets: the first is derived from a direct survey carried out in 2005 collecting data on innovations, labour flexibility and industrial relations; the second is represented by a panel of official balance sheets data for the period 1998–2004. The analysis is divided in two consequential parts. We first examine the drivers of different innovation strategies and subsequently we exploit innovation indicators as potential drivers of firm’s productivity. The results show that training activities and organizational changes have strong links with many industrial relations indicators, thus emerging as industrial relations driven innovations. On the contrary, ICT and technological innovation seem to be more influenced by firms’ past performances than by industrial relations. The analysis on labour productivity drivers shows that training activities are the most relevant factors; then, ranked consequently, technological innovation, organisational innovations and, finally, ICT also appear to impact on productivity levels. It is worth noting that the role of ICT emerges more robustly when endogeneity is specifically addressed. Finally, the role of firm size seems here to be overshadowed by other drivers.     

Price determination and dynamic adjustments: An inverse demand system approach to meat products in the United States

In this study the process of retail meat price determination is depicted in the form of an inverse demand system taking into consideration the dynamic adjustments present in monthly consumption data. The general dynamic framework identifies both long run and short run effects in a systematic manner and allows direct estimation of the long run price and scale flexibilities that are consistent with theory. The empirical application based on monthly U.S. meat products data provides reasonable and promising results.The authors are senior econometrician, Department of Risk Management, TRS, American Express Co., Phoenix, and assistant professor, Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, respectively. The work was performed when the first author was an assistant research scientist at the Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Department of Economics, Iowa State University, Ames. Journal Paper No. J-15784 of the Iowa Agriculture and Home Economics Experiment Station, Ames, Iowa. Project No. 3109.     

Industrial structure and preferences for a common currency – the case of the EURO referendum in Sweden

Attitudes for a common currency differ from nation to nation, or from region to region. We analyse regionally differing voting results of a referendum held in Sweden in lieu of joining the European Monetary Union. We put a special focus on the role of the industrial mix – being a potential factor influencing heterogeneous transmission – and find a significant, but subordinated, impact on voting behaviour.     

The effect of sporting success and management failure on attendance demand in the Bundesliga: a revealed and stated preference travel cost approach

This study examines the private consumption benefits of sports attendance using revealed and stated preference data from 28 Football Bundesliga teams across three divisions. Survey respondents were presented with positive (sporting success) and negative (management failure) scenarios and asked for the number of game trips if each scenario occurred. The results of a pooled random effects Poisson model show that travel costs and ticket price have a significant negative effect on the number of home game trips. The weighted consumer surplus per game trip including travel costs and ticket prices is €345. Consumer surplus per game trip was found to change by €41 (first division) and €98 (second and third division) if the positive scenario occurred and by €39 if the negative scenario occurred.     

Deterministic and stochastic trends in the time series models: a guide for the applied economist

Applied economists working with time series data face a dilemma in selecting between models with deterministic and stochastic trends. While models with deterministic trends are widely used, models with stochastic trends are not so well known. In an influential paper Harvey (1997 Harvey, AC. 1997. Trends, cycles and autoregression. Economic Journal, 107: 192–201. [Crossref] , [Google Scholar]) strongly advocates a structural time series approach with stochastic trends in place of the widely used autoregressive models based on unit root tests and cointegration techniques. Therefore, it is important to understand their relative merits. This article suggests that both methodologies are useful and they may perform differently in different models. This article provides a few guidelines to the applied economists to understand these alternative methods.     

从项目执行看FIDIC合同的工期索赔

2000年5月,中国水利电力对外公司与非洲某国污水局签订了承建污水管道项目的合同.该项目由世界银行和该国政府联合出资,合同金额约500万美元,原合同工期505天,监理工程师是一家英国公司,项目采用FIDIC合同条款.在该项目的执行过程中,项目部成功地进行了工期索赔,共索赔工期225天,避免了该项目因工期拖延而罚款.     

The internalization of externalities in the production of electricity: Willingness to pay for the attributes of a policy for renewable energy

This paper investigates the willingness to pay of a sample of residents of Bath, England, for a hypothetical program that promotes the production of renewable energy. Using choice experiments, we assess the preferences of respondents for a policy for the promotion of renewable energy that: (i) contributes to the internalization of the external costs caused by fossil fuel technologies; (ii) affects the short-term security of energy supply; (iii) has an impact on the employment in the energy sector; and (iv) leads to an increase in the electricity bill. Responses to the choice questions show that our respondents are in favour of a policy for renewable energy and that they attach a high value to a policy that brings private and public benefits in terms of climate change and energy security benefits. Our results therefore suggest that consumers are willing to pay a higher price for electricity in order to internalize the external costs in terms of energy security, climate change and air pollution caused by the production of electricity.