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1.
This paper studies estimation of average economic growth in time series models with persistency. In particular, a joint estimation of the trend coefficient and the autoregressive parameter is considered. An analysis on the proposed estimator is provided. Our analysis is also extended to the case with general disturbance distributions. A nonlinear M estimator and a class of partially adaptive M estimators which adapt themselves with respect to a measure of the tailthickness are considered. The joint estimator and its partially adapted version are compared with several conventional estimators. Monte Carlo experiments indicate that the proposed estimators have good finite sample performance. We use the proposed estimation procedure to estimate the growth rates for real GNP and consumer price index in 40 countries. 相似文献
2.
Rubina Vohra 《International Advances in Economic Research》2001,7(3):345-350
The purpose of this paper is to examine the role of export-growth linkage in India, Pakistan, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Thailand on the basis of time series data from 1973 to 1993. The empirical results indicate that exports have a positive and significant impact on economic growth when a country has achieved some level of economic development. The result also signifies the importance of liberal market policies by pursuing export expansion strategies and by attracting foreign investments. 相似文献
3.
This paper examines the dynamic relationship between natural gas consumption and economic growth in Pakistan using a multivariate model by including capital and labor as control variables for the period between 1972QI and 2011QIV. The results of the ARDL bound testing indicate the presence of cointegration relationships among the variables. The estimated long-run impact of gas consumption on economic growth is greater than other factor inputs suggesting that energy is a critical driver of production and growth in Pakistan. Furthermore, the results of causality test suggest that natural gas consumption and economic growth are complements. Given that natural gas constitutes to the primary source of energy in Pakistan, the implication of this study is that natural gas conservation policies could harm growth and, therefore, requires the policy makers to improve the energy supply efficiency as well as formulate appropriate policies to attract investment and establish public–private partnership initiatives. 相似文献
4.
The effect of the Internet on economic growth: Evidence from cross-country panel data 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Using cross-country panel data, we found evidence that the Internet plays a positive and significant role in economic growth after investment ratio, government consumption ratio, and inflation were used as control variables in the growth equation. 相似文献
5.
6.
With panel data for 28 Chinese provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities) during 1985–2002, this paper assesses the effect
of banking structure on economic growth. Banking structure is defined as the relative importance of banks of different size
in the banking sector. The market share of small banking institutions is taken as a proxy to measure the banking structure.
In dealing with the potential endogeneity problem, this paper constructs an instrumental variable for banking structure with
the information on the commercialization reform of state-owned banks initiated in 1994. The estimation results from a two-way
fixed-effect model show that increases in the market share of small banking institutions enhance economic growth in contemporary
China. 相似文献
7.
Export sophistication and economic growth: Evidence from China 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
Joachim Jarreau 《Journal of development economics》2012,97(2):281-292
We consider the effect of export sophistication on economic performance by appealing to regional variation within one single country (China) over the 1997-2009 period. We find evidence in support of Hausmann, Hwang and Rodrik (2007), in that regions specializing in more sophisticated goods subsequently grow faster. We find substantial variation in export sophistication at the province and prefecture level, controlling for the level of development, and that this sophistication in turn drives growth. Our results suggest that these gains are limited to the ordinary export activities undertaken by domestic firms: no direct gains result from either processing trade activities or foreign firms, even though these are the main contributors to the global upgrading of China's exports. As such, the extent of assembly trade and foreign entities should be distinguished in order to measure the true movement in a country's technology and the contribution of exports to economic growth. 相似文献
8.
Demographic structure and economic growth: Evidence from China 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
9.
Economic slack plays an important role for inflation dynamics in conventional macroeconomic models. Some have argued that this relationship, known as the Phillips curve, has broken down in recent years. However, due to the endogenous response of monetary policy, identification of the aggregate Phillips curve is fraught with uncertainty. To deal with some of these issues, this paper relies on a novel survey data set for firms in the retail trade sector in Sweden to explore the relationship between firms price-setting and firm-level measures of economic slack, namely firms’ perception of their sales situation, profitability, labor shortages and goods in stock. The results suggest that firms’ selling prices are more likely to increase if they perceive the sales situation to be good, rather than satisfactory or poor, and if they expect aggregate inflation to be rising. Firms’ assessment of their profitability, labor shortages or goods in stock are however only weakly correlated with selling prices, if at all. 相似文献
10.
Shuanglin Lin 《Pacific Economic Review》1999,4(1):65-77
This paper examines the effect of exports on economic growth based on the data of 30 Chinese provinces from 1978 to 1995. A theoretical model is based on the neoclassical production function, in which exports can affect output growth. It was found that the growth rate of exports and the growth rate of per capita output are positively related; i.e. provinces with faster growth of exports grew faster than the provinces with slower export growth. It was also found that investment in state enterprises was insignificantly related to output growth, while investment in private enterprises was positively related to growth. 相似文献
11.
Abstract. We investigate the impact of preference shocks on the aggregate dynamics of the U.S. economy in the context of a neoclassical growth model derived from aggregation. The aggregation result we use is as follows: if markets are complete and if agents have identical preferences of the addilog type, then the heterogeneous‐agent economy where agents are subject to idiosyncratic productivity shocks behaves as if there was a representative consumer who faces shocks to preferences and technology. We estimate the parameters in the aggregation‐based model from the aggregate time‐series data and compute the numerical solution. We find that the preference shocks play an important role in the aggregate labour‐market fluctuations. JEL classification: C73, D90, E21 相似文献
12.
Empirical Economics - Employing a panel vector autoregression (PVAR) methodology, the paper addresses the nexus between military expenditures and two key macroeconomic variables, namely growth... 相似文献
13.
《Review of Development Economics》2018,22(3):1146-1165
We investigate the impact of a rural electrification program on household income and children's schooling in rural Bhutan. Using propensity score matching, we find that electrification had a statistically significant impact on nonfarm income and education. Nonfarm income increased by 61 percent and children gained 0.72 additional years of schooling and 9 minutes of study time per day. We do not observe significant effects on farm income. Results are consistent and robust to different matching algorithms. Our findings indicate that investments in reducing energy deficit may help improve human welfare in Bhutan. 相似文献
14.
Recent historical data on Canada's balance of payments reveals a persistent pattern of current account deficits and capital
account surpluses. The theoretical interpretation and significance of this recurrent pattern are controversial issues among
economists. The essence of this debate is, in our view, a disagreement of a more fundamental nature concerning the underlying
causal relationship between the current and capital accounts. Three different causal viewpoints are identified and discussed.
Then, an empirical investigation using both bivariate and multivariate time series analysis is conducted in order to help
discriminate among the viewpoints. Our findings strongly suggest a feedback relation between the current and the long-term
capital account indicating that unidirectional causal viewpoints are inconsistent with the Canadian experience.
We are grateful to the editor and two anonymous referees for their valuable comments. 相似文献
15.
It is widely believed that the rotation and promotion system of local political chiefs plays an important role in China's economic miracle. In this paper, however, we focus on the potential cost of the inherent frequent turnover of local chiefs. Based on a new manually collected dataset on prefectural‐level local chiefs between 1983 and 2012, our empirical results suggest that the turnover of the local Chinese Communist Party (CCP) chief would lead to a 0.48 percentage point decrease in the local GDP growth rate in the current year. This effect is especially concentrated on more government‐affected fields, such as domestic investments, consumption and government expenditures. We also provide evidence that organization friction, especially the successor CCP chiefs’ unfamiliarity with the city, his/her new colleagues and/or the working conditions, is one of the major potential reasons for such a negative turnover effect. 相似文献
16.
《Research in Economics》2014,68(3):248-256
This paper examines the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth in Africa and presents estimations based on panel data of 50 African countries during the period from 1980 to 2009, and the system generalized method of moment (SYS-GMM) estimators as proposed by Blundell and Bond (1998). It finds that FDI inflows had a significant impact on economic growth in the African region during the period of interest. It also finds that while the low level of human resources did not limit the impact of FDI, and that the impact of FDI on economic growth was negative during the period from 1980 to 1994 and positive during the period from 1995 to 2009. 相似文献
17.
Yaojun Yao 《Frontiers of Economics in China》2011,6(3):464-478
Using annual time series data (1983–2007), this paper examines the nexus between international trade and technological progress
in China. The time series properties of the data are analyzed by bounds testing approach and vector error-correction model.
The empirical results show that, it is not international trade volume and export trade volume but the import trade volume
that is cointegrated with total factor productivity. The paper also finds that, in the long run, there is a reciprocal Granger
causal relationship between the change of import trade volume and the change of total factor productivity, and in the short
run, there is no evidence to support the Granger causality between these changes of the two variables. 相似文献
18.
The number of holidays differs significantly across Indian states. Moreover, some of the governing political parties have been accused of using holidays as a tool either to mollify disgruntled workers or to woo voters before the state elections. In this context, this paper explores the relationship between the number of holidays and economic growth across 24 Indian states, spanning the period 2008–2016, by employing a panel model analysis. The paper presents evidence suggesting that holidays seem to affect growth negatively in the rich states but are inconsequential for the growth performance of the poor states. 相似文献
19.
Changyuan Luo 《Frontiers of Economics in China》2007,2(1):92-113
Based on panel data at the provincial level in China, this paper found that direct effects foreign direct investment (FDI)
had on economic growth were of insignificance. However, through improving technical efficiency and “crowding” in domestic
investment, FDI produced positive effects on China’s economy. The state sector still played a major part in the total fixed
investment, therefore, direct effects on growth were significant. Although private sector was increasingly important for the
whole economy, it had no direct influences on economic growth. Meanwhile, neither the state sector nor private sector made
contribution to the improvement on technical efficiency.
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Translated from Shijie Jingji Wenhui 世界经济文汇 (World Economic Papers), 2006, (4): 27–43 相似文献
20.
The paper presents a small macro model for Pakistan economy focusing the impact of investment in human capital on the key macroeconomic variables. The demand side is modeled along the Keynesian lines while the supply side is modeled as per neoclassical theory of production. This framework allows analyzing the effects of investment in human capital on supply side variables (like labor, physical and human capital) and demand side variables (like consumption and investment) at the same time.The model has small forecasting horizon in which three alternative scenarios regarding government spending on education are evaluated from 2012 to 2016. The model shows that the link between human capital and labor market is weak however a change in education spending affects output through enhancing productivity and through multiplier-accelerator principle. Though the model is small in size and forecasting horizon, it can help in evaluating the future paths of key macroeconomic variables associated with education spending. 相似文献