The influence of crediting and permanence periods on Australian forest-based carbon offset supply

Governments globally are developing increasingly ambitious carbon emissions reduction schemes that include significant emissions offset credits for forest-based carbon sequestration. Such strategies can present significant challenges in highly modified and intensively farmed regions where forest land use opportunity and establishment costs are high. This article evaluates the economics of land-use change via active afforestation for local carbon abatement in the Australian state of South Australia, a region with high supply costs representative of long-established temperate farming regions. We found that there is no economically viable abatement below $38 tCO₂e⁻¹, however up to 154 Mt CO₂e of abatement could be available up to prices of $50 tCO₂e⁻¹.Variation in current Australian Emissions Reduction Fund (ERF) policy parameters related to permanence and crediting periods were also assessed. Recent ERF contracts involve a 100-year land-use change commitment (permanence period) and a 25-year crediting period where payments for growth in carbon from the land-use change is contracted. We compared outcomes of this arrangement to a scenario with equal 100-year permanence and crediting periods. We found substantial differences in carbon supply at some price points for a 25 rather than a 100-year crediting period. Under ERF parameters the first economically viable revegetation options occur at $42 tCO₂e⁻¹, however, we found a 69 percent reduction in economically viable supply at a carbon price of $50 tCO₂e⁻¹. The results highlight the role offset crediting policy can have on dis-incentivising land-use change and the need for landholders to be compensated fully for temporal opportunity costs.     

Forest carbon benefits,costs and leakage effects of carbon reserve scenarios in the United States

This study evaluated the potential effectiveness of future carbon reserve scenarios, where U.S. forest landowners would hypothetically be paid to sequester carbon on their timberland and forego timber harvests for 100 years. Scenarios featured direct payments to landowners of $0 (baseline), $5, $10, or $15 per metric ton of additional forest carbon sequestered on the set aside lands, with maximum annual expenditures of $3 billion. Results indicated that from 1513 to 6837 Tg (Teragrams) of additional carbon (as carbon dioxide equivalent, CO₂e) would be sequestered on U.S. timberlands relative to the baseline case over the next 50 years (30–137 Tg CO₂e annually). These projected amounts of sequestered carbon on timberlands take into account projected increases in timber removal and forest carbon losses on other timberlands (carbon leakage effects). Net effectiveness of carbon reserve scenarios in terms of overall net gain in timberland carbon stocks from 2010 to 2060 ranged from 0.29 tCO₂e net carbon increase for a payment of $5/tCO₂e to the landowner (71% leakage), to 0.15 tCO₂e net carbon increase for a payment of $15/tCO₂e to the landowner (85% leakage). A policy or program to buy carbon credits from landowners would need to discount additions to the carbon reserve by the estimated amount of leakage. In the scenarios evaluated, the timber set-asides reduced timberland area available for harvest up to 35% and available timber inventory up to 55%, relative to the baseline scenario over the next 50 years, resulting in projected changes in timber prices, harvest levels, and forest product revenues for the forest products sector.     

The potential and cost of increasing forest carbon sequestration in Sweden

This paper examines the potential and the cost of promoting forest carbon sequestration through a tax/subsidy to land owners for reducing/increasing carbon storage in their forests. We use a partial equilibrium model based on intertemporal optimization to estimate the impacts of carbon price (the tax/subsidy rate) on timber harvest volume and price in different time periods and on the change of forest carbon stock over time. The results show that a higher carbon price would lead to higher forest carbon stocks. The tax/subsidy induced annual net carbon sequestration is declining over time. The net carbon sequestration during 2015–2050 would increase by 30.2 to 218.3 million tonnes of CO₂, when carbon price increases from 170 SEK to 1428 SEK per tonne of CO₂. The associated cost, in terms of reduced total benefits of timber and other non-timber goods, ranges from 80 SEK to 105.8 SEK per tonne of CO₂. The change in carbon sequestration (as compared with the baseline case) beyond 2050 is small when carbon price is 680 SEK per tonne of CO₂ or lower. With a carbon price of 1428 SEK per tonne of CO₂, carbon sequestration will increase by 70 million tonnes of CO₂ from the baseline level during 2050-2070, and by 64 million tonnes during 2070–2170.     

Heterogeneity and assessment uncertainties in forest characteristics and biomass carbon stocks: Important considerations for climate mitigation policies

The management of forests to store carbon and mitigate climate change has received significant international attention during the last decade. Using in situ data from a 2008–2009 forest inventory field campaign in Sri Lanka, this study describes the structural characteristics and carbon stocks of six natural forest types. This paper has a dual scope: i) to highlight the variation in carbon stored in aboveground biomass within and between forest types and ii) to determine the implications of the allometric equations chosen to calculate biomass carbon stocks. This study concerns work related to climate change interventions, such as Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) and other forest-related, performance-based initiatives that require proper monitoring, reporting, and verification of carbon stocks, sinks and emissions. The results revealed that forests are heterogeneous in terms of tree density and height–diameter relationships, both between and within the six forest types investigated. The mean aboveground carbon stock in the different forest types ranged from 22 to 181 Mg C ha⁻¹, and there were statistically significant differences in the carbon stocks of the six forest types in 7 of 15 cases. The estimated carbon stock depended heavily on the allometric equation used for the calculations, the variables, and its application to the specific life zone. Due to the diversity of forest structures, these results suggest that caution should be taken when applying default values to estimate forest carbon stocks and emission values in reporting and accounting schemes. The results also indicated the need for allometric equations that are context-specific for different forest types. Therefore, new field investigations and measurements are needed to determine these specific allometric equations, as well as the potential variation in forest carbon stocks in tropical natural forests.     

Methodology to calculate the carbon footprint of household land use in the urban planning stage

The growing concerns of climate change require implementing measures to quantify, to monitor and to minimize greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Nonetheless, most of the measures available are not easy to define or execute because they rely on current emissions and have a corrective character. To address this issue, a methodology to characterize GHG emissions that allows implementing preventive measures is proposed in this paper. The methodology is related to household urban planning procedures and considers urban infrastructures to characterize GHG emissions and to execute preventive measures based on sustainability design criteria. The methodology has been tested by applying it to a set of medium-sized municipalities with average GHG emissions from 6,822.32 kgCO_2eq/year to 5,913.79 kgCO_2eq/year for every residential unit. The results indicate that the greatest pollutant source is transport, especially in the issuance of street network design, followed by gas and electricity consumption. The average undevelopable land area required for the complete GHG emissions capture amounts to 3.42 m² of undevelopable land for every m² of urbanizable land and 9.02 m² of undevelopable land for every m² of built land.     

Carbon mitigation potential of the French forest sector under threat of combined physical and market impacts due to climate change

Objectives(1) To quantify the contribution of the French forest-wood product chain in terms of carbon sequestration and substitution when accounting for both the physical impacts (shifts in tree growth and mortality rates) and the market impacts (increased demand of harvested wood products (HWP)) of climate change (cc) and the subsequent forest managers adaptations; (2) To assess the uncertainty of the impacts on the above carbon balance and on forest allocation; and (3) To assess the role of managers’ expectations toward these future, uncertain but highly anticipated, impacts.MethodologyWe used a bio-economic model of the French Forest Sector (FFSM++) that is able to consider and integrate: (a) the effects of climate change over forest dynamics; (b) forest investment decisions (among groups of species) according to expected profitability; and (c) market effects in terms of regionalised supply, consumption and trade of HWP, depending on the forest resource stocks and international prices. By including both forest dynamics and forest products, we can evaluate the carbon balance taking the following elements into consideration: (a) carbon sequestered in live and dead biomass in the forest; (b) carbon sequestered in HWP; (c) carbon substituted when wood is used in place of fossil fuels or more energy-intensive materials; and (d) carbon released by forest operations.ResultsWhen the model is run at constant conditions for the next century, the average carbon potential of French forests is 66.2–125.3 Mt CO₂ y⁻¹, depending on whether we consider only inventoried wood resources, HWP pools and direct energy substitution, or if we also account for the carbon stored in tree branches and roots and if we consider the more indirect, but also largely more subjective, material substitution. These values correspond to 18.3% and 34.7%, respectively, of the French 2010 emissions (361 Mt CO₂). However, when we consider both the probable increment of coniferous mortality and changes in forest growth, plus the rise in HWP demand worldwide, the average sequestration rate of the French forest decreases by 6.6–5.8% to 61.8–118.0 Mt CO₂ y⁻¹. Running partial scenarios, we can assess the relative interplay of these two factors, where the price factor increases the HWP stock while decreasing the forest stocks (where the latter effect prevails), while the physical impact of climate change reduces both, but to a lesser extent. Considering short-sighted forest managers, whose behaviour is based uniquely on the observed conditions at the time decisions are made, we obtain a limited effect of the overall carbon balance but a relatively large impact on the area allocation of broadleaved vs. coniferous species.     

An open-access method for targeting revegetation based on potential for emissions reduction,carbon sequestration and opportunity cost

We propose a simple heuristic that uses open-access models and government data on agricultural activities to estimate total carbon emissions from agriculture, the gross carbon benefit and the opportunity cost per tonne CO₂-e from revegetating to environmental plantings or plantation forestry. We test this across ten areas of mixed land-use that represent diverse Australian agricultural systems along a rainfall transect. The local value of agricultural production was obtained from government statistics and used to estimate the current economic opportunity cost of converting cleared agricultural land to mixed environmental plantings for carbon sequestration. Gross carbon benefit from revegetation was closely related to current agricultural use, as was financial opportunity cost. These were not related simply to site productivity potential or rainfall. The proportion of land cleared for agriculture that would need to be re-vegetated to achieve a localised zero-carbon land-use scenario was calculated by the ratio of current agricultural emissions to gross carbon benefit from revegetation; this ranged from 13% to 66% for groups of agricultural industries across Australian rainfall transects. While the heuristic does not capture the detail of models built specifically for local research questions it does provide a different lens on the questions policy makers and land managers may ask about the costs and benefits of revegetating agricultural land, and provides open-access methods to guide them.     

Analysing foregone costs of communities and carbon benefits in small scale community based forestry practice in Nepal

Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, conservation and sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon (REDD+) are considered to be important cost effective approaches for global climate change mitigation; therefore, such practices are evolving as the REDD+ payment mechanism in developing countries. Using six years (2006–2012) data, this paper analyses trade-offs between carbon stock gains and the costs incurred by communities in generating additional carbon in 105 REDD+ pilot community forests in Nepal. It estimates foregone benefits for communities engaged in increasing carbon stocks in various dominant vegetation types. At recent carbon and commodity prices, communities receive on average US$ 0.47/ha/year of carbon benefits with the additional cost of US$ 67.30/ha/year. One dollar’s worth of community cost resulted 0.23 Mg of carbon sequestration. Therefore, carbon payment alone may not be an attractive incentive within small-scale community forestry and should link with payments for ecosystem services. Moreover, the study found highest community sacrificed benefits in Shorea mixed broadleaf forests and lowest in Schima-Castanopsis forests, while carbon benefits were highest in Pine forests followed by Schima-Castanopsis forests and lowest in Rhododendron-Quercus forests. This indicates that costs and benefits may vary by vegetation type. A policy should consider payment for other environmental services, carbon gains, co-benefits and trade off while designing the REDD+ mechanism in community based forest land use practice with equitable community outcomes. The learning from this study will help in the formulation of an appropriate REDD+ policy for community forestry.     

Economics of carbon sequestration in community forests: Evidence from REDD+ piloting in Nepal

Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) has been piloted in developing countries as a climate change mitigation strategy, providing financial incentives for carbon sequestration in forests. This paper examines the economic feasibility of REDD+ in community forests within two watersheds in central Nepal, Ludikhola and Kayarkhola, using data on forest product demand, carbon sequestration, carbon price and REDD+ related costs. The benefits of REDD+ are about $7994, $152, and $64 per community forest, per hectare of forest area, and per household in Ludikhola watershed compared to $4815, $29, and $56 in Kayarkhola watershed, respectively, under the business-as-usual scenario. Compared to the EU ETS carbon price ($10.3/tCO₂e), the average break-even carbon price in community forests is much higher in Kayarkhola watershed ($41.8/tCO₂e) and much lower in Ludikhola watershed ($2.4/tCO₂e) when empirical estimates of annual expenditure in community forests are included in the analysis. The incorporation of annual expenditure estimates and opportunity cost of sequestered carbon (in the form of firewood prices in local markets) in the analysis suggests that community forests are economically infeasible for REDD+ at the prevailing carbon prices. The implication of our findings is that economic feasibility of REDD+ in community forests depends on the local contexts, carbon prices and the opportunity costs, which should be carefully considered in designing REDD+ projects.     

Assessing policy and carbon price settings for incentivising reforestation activities in a carbon market: An Australian perspective

Policy makers often seek to incentivise reforestation to achieve either carbon abatement and/or the provision of other co-benefits such as landscape remediation, biodiversity, and social outcomes. But where incentives are for carbon abatement alone, uptake is often slower than expected, with previous estimates of economic viability for reforestation often overlooking some economic and technical barriers. Management of revegetation projects (e.g. species mix, configuration in belts or blocks and density of stocking) influences not only rates of sequestration of carbon (and therefore expected revenue from carbon markets), but also establishment and maintenance costs. These management factors were considered via a sensitivity analysis of a financial cash flow model of different scenarios of revegetation projects with respect to scale of operation of projects, quantification methodology applied, and type of payment contract.Results reinforced that policy makers seeking to incentivise revegetation for carbon abatement in addition to co-benefits such as landscape remediation may require additional crediting for these co-benefits as projects are often unviable with carbon payments alone. For example, simple linear tree plantings are likely to be most competitive in a market based solely on carbon abatement, while blocks of mixed-species biodiversity plantings would be uncompetitive given their relatively low rates of carbon sequestration and high establishment costs. Economic viability of revegetation projects may also be enhanced through: aggregation of projects to increase economies of scale; carbon markets allowing flexibility in approaches for quantification (e.g. application of calibrated models, or undertaking of direct field sampling), and; facilitating payment contracts that provide upfront capital through forward contracts.     

The economic costs of avoided deforestation in the developing world: A meta-analysis

This meta-analysis aims to identify the key factors governing the economic costs of avoided deforestation in developing countries. To this end, data were collected from 32 primary studies published between 1995 and 2012, yielding 277 observations. Results show that unit costs depend significantly on cost features like estimation methodology, inclusion or exclusion of cost components, carbon accounting method, area size, alternative land uses and beneficiaries, time horizon, and the continent in which the forest protection scheme is implemented, but also factors like the share of agriculture in a nation's economy play a significant role in explaining unit costs. In future studies, greater attention needs to be paid to additional cost components like transaction costs and the presence of the co-benefits of avoided deforestation.     

Climate,carbon, civil war and flexible boundaries: Sudan's contested landscape

The confluence of climate change, oil development, farmer–nomad interaction, and civil war has given rise to serious contestation over land and water resources in the heart of Sudan. Here we report on direct involvement in the very difficult and protracted efforts to resolve these land-use conflicts. Repeated efforts to define and implement “hard demarcation” of boundaries in agroecological regions characterized by great temporal variability across space have been unsuccessful for many reasons. In semi-arid and savanna environments, where nomads share the use of land with sedentary communities, boundary disputes are minimized by the existence of flexible demarcations. Flexible boundaries are identifiable but subject to change in response to negotiation and agreement among resource users. It seems that the struggle is always over “rights” to particular areas of land. But it is necessary to understand the distinction between interests and rights. Each individual – and each group – has interests that they will seek to protect and, very often, enhance. But the conversion of interests into rights is a more difficult matter. As long as the need to deal with risk and uncertainty dominate livelihood strategies, flexible adaptation rather than rigid boundaries remains the optimal strategy in agro-pastoral economies.     

Emergence and influence of a new policy regime: The case of forest carbon offsets in British Columbia

The most significant carbon mitigation policy currently targeting BC’s forests is the Forest Carbon Offsets Protocol (FCOP) that outlines the rules regulating forest carbon offsets. By applying the Policy Regime Framework to the FCOP, this paper addresses the following specific questions: what is the extent of the policy change brought by FCOP, and what are the main factors that influenced and shaped this policy change? The paper concludes that policy did change: an offset regime was established and FCOP was adopted to steer the development of forest carbon offsets. It is the executive branch of government, and especially Premier Gordon Campbell, that was most influential during problem definition and the decision making around forest carbon offset policy. In addition, environmentalists and First Nations, by advocating for a conservation economy, and the private sector, by lobbying the government to prioritize their economic interests, also influenced the policy making process. However, the actual magnitude of policy change that occurred with the emergence of the forest carbon policy regime is quite limited. Apart from a few conservation and improved forest management projects that mostly benefited First Nations, very few projects have been successfully implemented to date. This limited policy change was caused by various economic, social and political limitations. In particular, the shift in government in 2011 that led to the decision not to implement a cap and trade program significantly reduced marketing opportunities for BC-based forest offsets. In addition, the negative public opinion towards the credibility and effectiveness of forest carbon offsets, the low international price of carbon, the high transaction costs and the lack of financing options strongly restrained their development.     

Climate protection and compact urban structures in spatial planning and local construction plans in Germany

The paper discusses opportunities for integration of the climate protection strategy declared by the German government into spatial and urban land-use plans in Germany.     

Management flexibility,price uncertainty and the adoption of carbon forestry

A price on carbon has the potential to drive significant land use change through reforestation. Understanding the likely locations and extent of these changes is therefore a key focus for researchers and policy makers. Models of reforestation based on net present values (NPV) typically compare the economic returns of carbon forestry to alternative land uses. However, these models often neglect the impact of uncertainty. Two sources of uncertainty highly relevant to carbon forestry are the opportunity cost of the land on which the trees are established (i.e. future returns from alternative land uses) and carbon prices. In addition to foregoing the current land use, a landowner making a permanent land use change such as carbon forestry is also giving up the opportunity to change management in the future, for example by changing crop mix in response to commodity price changes. We develop a Monte Carlo model to demonstrate the value of management flexibility, based on a case study property in Australia. While in the absence of management flexibility carbon forestry is more profitable than the current land use, under uncertain future commodity prices it is less attractive to a landowner. We go on to show that, even if the returns from carbon exceed those from more flexible agricultural land use, uncertainty over future carbon prices is likely to delay the adoption of carbon forestry. Overall the models presented in this paper demonstrate that the adoption of carbon forestry is likely to be substantially lower, and slower, than models based on static values would suggest.     

Developing farm-specific marginal abatement cost curves: Cost-effective greenhouse gas mitigation opportunities in sheep farming systems

Growing demand for agricultural produce, coupled with ambitious targets for greenhouse gas emissions reduction present the scientific, policy and agricultural sectors with a substantial mitigation challenge. Identification and implementation of suitable mitigation measures is driven by both the measures’ effectiveness and cost of implementation. Marginal abatement cost curves (MACCs) provide a simple graphical representation of the abatement potential and cost-effectiveness of mitigation measures to aid policy decision-making. Accounting for heterogeneity in farm conditions and subsequent abatement potentials in mitigation policy is problematic, and may be aided by the development of tailored MACCs. Robust MACC development is currently lacking for mitigation measures appropriate to sheep systems. This study constructed farm-specific MACCs for a lowland, upland and hill sheep farm in the UK. The stand-alone mitigation potential of six measures was modelled, against real farm baselines, according to assumed impacts on emissions and productivity. The MACCs revealed the potential for negative cost emissions’ abatement in the sheep industry. Improving ewe nutrition to increase lamb survival offered considerable abatement potential at a negative cost to the farmers across all farms while, lambing as yearlings offered negative cost abatement potential on lowland and upland farms. The results broadly advocate maximising lamb output from existing inputs on all farm categories, and highlight the importance of productivity and efficiency as influential drivers of emissions abatement in the sector. The abatement potentials and marginal costs of other measures (e.g. reducing mineral fertiliser use and selecting pasture plants bred to minimise dietary nitrogen losses) varied between farms, and this heterogeneity was more frequently attributable to differences in individual farm management than land classification. This has important implications for the high level policy sector as no two farms are likely to benefit from a generic one size fits all approach to mitigation. The construction of further case-study farm MACCs under varying farm conditions is required to define the biophysical and management conditions that each measure is most suited to, generating a more tailored set of sector-specific mitigation parameters.     

英国《气候变化法》的出台及其减排路线图

2008年11月26日英国《气候变化法》最终经女王批准形成法律,使英国成为世界上第一个将温室气体减排目标以法律形式确定下来的国家。论述了该法出台的过程、主要内容及其出台的背后原因,并分析出英国未来减排的路线图。这些结论对我国未来对气候变化有很好的参考价值。     

天然次生柞木林光照强度变化规律观测

对天然次生柞木林内的不同层次及林内外的光照强度进行了日、季变化规律的研究。晴天具有相似的日变化规律，呈单峰曲线，中午１２时左右达到最大值；而在多云条件下，上述规律常常被破坏，季节变化，变化趋势一致，７月份达最大值，但随着离度下降，峰值逐渐消失；对照区和林冠表面受气候条件影响较大。还对柞木林内光照强度的分布格局进行了研究，近９５％的太阳辐射能被主林层吸收。     

聚焦哥本哈根气候变化峰会:回顾与前瞻

联合国气候变化会议于2009年12月7-19日在哥本哈根召开,受到了国际社会前所未有的关注。回顾了哥本哈根气候变化峰会的背景,指出了谈判中的各种利益集团及其争夺的焦点,阐述了哥本哈根峰会的最终结果,分析了目前国际气候变化谈判的主要进展,并就未来进行了展望。     

Adapting the optimal selective-logging of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) stands in NE Spain to increasing CO2 concentrations

Predicted increases in CO₂ concentrations will affect forest ecosystems. In particular, they will impact tree growth, which in turn affects reproduction and mortality and consequently, forest planning. This study integrates different climate change scenarios of future biogeochemical processes and an economic model into a forest management model to determine the optimal selective-logging regime of Scots pine stands. It analyzes the economic implications of the management changes in comparison with the business as usual strategy. Adaption to new climatic conditions shows that it is optimal to increase the number of standing trees and to reduce the age of the logged trees. The results suggest that the failure to adapt the management regime has clear implications on the profitability of forests. Moreover, they show that higher mortality is likely to have a significant impact on the optimal forest management regime.