Forest carbon benefits,costs and leakage effects of carbon reserve scenarios in the United States

This study evaluated the potential effectiveness of future carbon reserve scenarios, where U.S. forest landowners would hypothetically be paid to sequester carbon on their timberland and forego timber harvests for 100 years. Scenarios featured direct payments to landowners of $0 (baseline), $5, $10, or $15 per metric ton of additional forest carbon sequestered on the set aside lands, with maximum annual expenditures of $3 billion. Results indicated that from 1513 to 6837 Tg (Teragrams) of additional carbon (as carbon dioxide equivalent, CO₂e) would be sequestered on U.S. timberlands relative to the baseline case over the next 50 years (30–137 Tg CO₂e annually). These projected amounts of sequestered carbon on timberlands take into account projected increases in timber removal and forest carbon losses on other timberlands (carbon leakage effects). Net effectiveness of carbon reserve scenarios in terms of overall net gain in timberland carbon stocks from 2010 to 2060 ranged from 0.29 tCO₂e net carbon increase for a payment of $5/tCO₂e to the landowner (71% leakage), to 0.15 tCO₂e net carbon increase for a payment of $15/tCO₂e to the landowner (85% leakage). A policy or program to buy carbon credits from landowners would need to discount additions to the carbon reserve by the estimated amount of leakage. In the scenarios evaluated, the timber set-asides reduced timberland area available for harvest up to 35% and available timber inventory up to 55%, relative to the baseline scenario over the next 50 years, resulting in projected changes in timber prices, harvest levels, and forest product revenues for the forest products sector.     

An open-access method for targeting revegetation based on potential for emissions reduction,carbon sequestration and opportunity cost

We propose a simple heuristic that uses open-access models and government data on agricultural activities to estimate total carbon emissions from agriculture, the gross carbon benefit and the opportunity cost per tonne CO₂-e from revegetating to environmental plantings or plantation forestry. We test this across ten areas of mixed land-use that represent diverse Australian agricultural systems along a rainfall transect. The local value of agricultural production was obtained from government statistics and used to estimate the current economic opportunity cost of converting cleared agricultural land to mixed environmental plantings for carbon sequestration. Gross carbon benefit from revegetation was closely related to current agricultural use, as was financial opportunity cost. These were not related simply to site productivity potential or rainfall. The proportion of land cleared for agriculture that would need to be re-vegetated to achieve a localised zero-carbon land-use scenario was calculated by the ratio of current agricultural emissions to gross carbon benefit from revegetation; this ranged from 13% to 66% for groups of agricultural industries across Australian rainfall transects. While the heuristic does not capture the detail of models built specifically for local research questions it does provide a different lens on the questions policy makers and land managers may ask about the costs and benefits of revegetating agricultural land, and provides open-access methods to guide them.     

聚焦哥本哈根气候变化峰会:回顾与前瞻

联合国气候变化会议于2009年12月7-19日在哥本哈根召开,受到了国际社会前所未有的关注。回顾了哥本哈根气候变化峰会的背景,指出了谈判中的各种利益集团及其争夺的焦点,阐述了哥本哈根峰会的最终结果,分析了目前国际气候变化谈判的主要进展,并就未来进行了展望。     

Why are there so few afforestation and reforestation Clean Development Mechanism projects?

Of the more than 1600 Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects that are currently registered with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), only four are afforestation or reforestation projects. This paper asks why there are so few CDM afforestation or reforestation (CDM A/R) projects given the many economic, social and environmental benefits that such activities potentially offer. The authors discuss the question from two perspectives: namely the constraints to the development of CDM A/R projects and the features of ‘successful’ CDM A/R projects. Constraints to the development of CDM A/R projects include financial, administrative and governance issues. Analysis of the four registered CDM A/R projects suggests that ‘successful’ CDM A/R applications are likely to be characterized by the following: initial funding support; design and implementation guided by large organizations with technical expertise; occur on private land (land with secured property rights attached); and most revenue from Certified Emission Reductions (CERs) is directed back to local communities. It is argued that the CDM needs to be reformed to support the development of more CDM A/R projects, particularly with regards to incorporating greater flexibility, simplifying the methodological and documentation procedures of CDM registration, and redefining the role of the UNFCCC in CDMs from one of adjudication to one of facilitation.     

Who is resilient in Africa’s Green Revolution? Sustainable intensification and Climate Smart Agriculture in Rwanda

Under the banner of a \"New Green Revolution for Africa,\" agricultural intensification programs aim to make smallholder agriculture more productive as well as \"climate smart\". As with Green Revolutions in Asia and Mexico, agricultural innovations (hybrid seeds, agronomic engineering, market linkages,and increased use of fertilizer and pesticides) are promoted as essential catalysts of agriculture-led economic growth. Intensification programs are now frequently linked to Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA), which attempts to build resilience and reduce greenhouse gas emissions while increasing crop yields. This article considers who and what is resilient in Africa’s Green Revolution. We report on a multi-season study of smallholder food producers' experiences with Rwanda’s Crop Intensification Program (CIP) and related policies that aim to commercialize subsistence agriculture while implementing CSA. . We suggest that there are fundamental limits to the climate resilience afforded by CSA and development efforts rooted in Green Revolution thinking. Our findings illustrate that such efforts foreground technology and management adjustments in ways that have reduced smallholder resilience by inhibiting sovereignty over land use, decreasing livelihood flexibility, and constricting resource access. We put forth that rural development policies could better promote climate-resilient livelihoods through: 1) adaptive governance that enables smallholder land use decision-making; 2) support for smallholder food producers’ existing agro-ecological strategies of intensification; 3) participatory approaches to visualize and correct for inequalities in local processes of social-ecological resilence Such considerations are paramount for meeting the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals and building climate-resilient food systems.     

Climate,carbon, civil war and flexible boundaries: Sudan's contested landscape

The confluence of climate change, oil development, farmer–nomad interaction, and civil war has given rise to serious contestation over land and water resources in the heart of Sudan. Here we report on direct involvement in the very difficult and protracted efforts to resolve these land-use conflicts. Repeated efforts to define and implement “hard demarcation” of boundaries in agroecological regions characterized by great temporal variability across space have been unsuccessful for many reasons. In semi-arid and savanna environments, where nomads share the use of land with sedentary communities, boundary disputes are minimized by the existence of flexible demarcations. Flexible boundaries are identifiable but subject to change in response to negotiation and agreement among resource users. It seems that the struggle is always over “rights” to particular areas of land. But it is necessary to understand the distinction between interests and rights. Each individual – and each group – has interests that they will seek to protect and, very often, enhance. But the conversion of interests into rights is a more difficult matter. As long as the need to deal with risk and uncertainty dominate livelihood strategies, flexible adaptation rather than rigid boundaries remains the optimal strategy in agro-pastoral economies.     

How adjustments in land use patterns contribute to drought risk adaptation in a changing climate—A case study in China

In the context of climate change, adaptation to climatic extremes, such as drought, has attracted worldwide attention, yet many practical adaptation strategies need to be examined at the local level. Based on a case study of the village of Beidian, located in a drought-prone region in northern China, this study demonstrates that when faced with multiple pressures of regional climate change, drought risk and rural poverty, reasonable adjustments in land use patterns can serve as an effective adaptation strategy in the agricultural sector. We used household questionnaires, in-depth interviews with village managers, and land use surveys at the farming plot level to quantify the relationship between land use change and drought mitigation effects. Our findings indicate that in the past decade, the farming practices in Beidian have transformed from a complete reliance on the winter wheat–summer corn rotation to a new diversified mode of apple as the main crop and corn and coarse cereals as the subsidiary crops. The current farming mode is proven to possess a stronger adaptive capacity to drought due to its higher water-saving efficiency and economic benefit, which facilitates rural poverty reduction and socio-economic development. This study presents a feasible approach to address adaptation strategies at the local level, which provides policymakers with information on how to best support farm-level adaptation and to reduce farmers’ vulnerability to climatic extremes within the broader context of climate change.