Monetary policy volatility shocks in Brazil

This paper provides empirical evidence of the impact of changes in volatility of monetary policy in Brazil using a model where the time-varying volatility of shocks directly affects the level of observed variables. Contrary to the literature, an increase in monetary policy volatility results in higher inflation, combined with reduction in output. Qualitative differences of impulse responses functions are explained using a calibrated small-scale dynamic model, where the habit persistence in consumption, combined with the design of monetary policy, plays a key role in results. Firms tend to increase prices under higher volatility, in order to avoid costs of resetting over time. Working capital constraints amplify the effects of interest rate volatility shocks on prices.     

Monetary policy and transmission mechanism in Brazil: an empirical model

We propose an econometric model for the transmission mechanism in Brazil after the inflation target regime (IT) implementation. We follow the statistical approach based on the LSE methodology by means of the Spanos (J Econom 44:87–105, 1990) categorization. Our proposed model includes the ratios of the debt and primary surplus to the GDP representing the government fiscal effort. We identify two long run relationships that produce new information on how to evaluate the real interest rate and the nominal interest rate links, respectively, with the output gap and the nominal inflation derived from the IS and the interest rule theoretical models. Such specification explores the role played by fiscal variables in monetary transmission; considering the government fiscal effort, a relevant issue for Brazil. We were also able to identify a third long run relationship that might help to uncover how output gap is related not only with nominal variables but also with the debt to the GDP ratio.     

Monetary and fiscal policy interactions in a post Keynesian open-economy model

Using a post Keynesian model, this study aims to analyze the stabilizing role of fiscal and monetary policies in an open economy with a managed exchange rate regime. The real exchange rate is modeled as an endogenous variable and inflation explained using the conflicting claims approach. The dynamic properties of macroeconomic equilibrium are evaluated in different regimes of fiscal and monetary policies. The main result of this study suggests that the preferred policy regime is the one in which economic authorities are complementary and fiscal policy plays an explicitly active role. In this regime, the fiscal policy must commit to the target for the rate of capacity utilization and the monetary authority must commit to the inflation target.     

Monetary policy in a financial crisis

What are the economic effects of an interest rate cut when an economy is in the midst of a financial crisis? Under what conditions will a cut stimulate output and employment, and raise welfare? Under what conditions will a cut have the opposite effects? We answer these questions in a general class of open economy models, where a financial crisis is modelled as a time when collateral constraints are suddenly binding. We find that when there are frictions in adjusting the level of output in the traded good sector and in adjusting the rate at which that output can be used in other parts of the economy, then a cut in the interest rate is most likely to result in a welfare-reducing fall in output and employment. When these frictions are absent, a cut in the interest rate improves asset positions and promotes a welfare-increasing economic expansion.     

Monetary policy in the BOF3 quarterly model of the Finnish economy

This paper describes the modelling of monetary policy in BOF3, a quarterly econometric model of Finland built at the Research Department of the Bank of Finland. BOF3 is a 198-equation, ‘amended Keynesian’ model which is used regularly in policy analysis and forecasting at the Bank. The modelling of the Finnish monetary sector has been complicated by the fact that most interest rates applied by the banks have so far been institutionally regulated. In spite of this, model builders have attempted to follow the conventional IS-LM approach as closely as possible, assuming that interest rates equilibrate financial markets outside the banking sector. The reported simulation experiments describe the effects of a change in nomical interest rates, of a change in the domestic money supply, and of a fiscal stimulus with and without monetary accomodation.     

Monetary policy regime change and regional inflation dynamics: looking through the lens of sector‐level data for Korea

This paper explores the impact of the adoption of inflation targeting (IT) on the dynamics of city‐level inflation in Korea using both aggregate and sector‐level data. When looking at aggregate regional inflation, we find that the mean, volatility and persistence fell in all cities in the wake of the monetary policy regime change, consistent with other evidence in the literature. Delving more deeply into the disaggregate data reveals additional insights however. For most of the changes we observe in the dynamics of regional inflation, we find that the aggregate effects are being driven primarily by sectors that fall into the ‘Services’ category. We posit that the impact of better anchored inflationary expectations is primarily on the less‐traded services sectors of the economy, where the domestic monetary policy framework has a relatively larger influence. When it comes to the increased co‐movement observed across regions under an IT regime, however, it is the ‘Commodities’ sectors rather than ‘Services’ that are responsible, probably because services inflation becomes relatively more influenced by local factors once it has stabilized within the target range. Therefore, adoption of IT may not necessarily increase all measures of regional synchronization even when the goal of better‐anchored inflationary expectations is achieved.     

Monetary policy in the UK

The authors argue that the institutional dimension of the Bankof England monetary policy and the role the UK HM Treasury assumesin this framework are both firmly based on the New Consensusin Macroeconomics (NCM). This is also the theoretical frameworkupon which the inflation targeting element of monetary policyis firmly based. This paper discusses these aspects of UK monetarypolicy, and then assesses the policy that has been pursued since1997 (with some reference made to the period between 1992 and1997 when a version of the framework was introduced). The strategyhas been successful in terms of keeping UK inflation rates withinthe targets set by HM Treasury. However, a number of problematicissues are highlighted and discussed.     

Economy through a lens: Distortions of policy coverage in UK national newspapers

This paper shows that communication of economic news varies across newspapers in the United Kingdom. We develop new time series of economic news tonality using a unique dataset of policy influenced articles published in major UK newspapers. We show that the volume and tonality of news respond to current economic conditions. For example, the nature of news changes around events of economic uncertainty such as the global financial crisis and the post-EU referendum periods. We also provide illustrative evidence that communication differs across newspaper formats. Tabloids, as opposed to quality newspapers, tend to express news more negatively, and mostly report policy-related news during periods of economic stress. The integral importance of these results is illustrated by news reaction curves showing a strong positive relationship mostly lasting three months between consumer sentiments and news.     

Monetary policy in a dual currency environment

We develop a small open economy general equilibrium model with sticky prices and partial dollarization – a situation where both domestic and foreign currencies coexist. We derive a tractable representation of the model in terms of domestic inflation and the output gap in which a trade-off, which depends on the degree of dollarization, arises endogenously due to the presence of foreign interest rate shocks. We use this framework to show analytically how higher degrees of dollarization induce larger volatilities of the output gap and inflation, thus hampering a central bank’s effectiveness to stabilize the economy. Our impulse response functions show that the transmission of such shocks has a positive (negative) effect on inflation and negative (positive) effect on the output gap when money aggregates and consumption are complements (substitutes).     

Monetary policy under a multiple-tool environment

Since the 2008 global financial crisis, central banks have been using a new set of policy tools in addition to conventional tools (such as short-term interest rates) to conduct monetary policy. This paper employs a methodology that captures 25 of these tools with a limited number of factors for Turkey. Due to a set of factors such as the high volatility of inflation, market-friendly financial architecture and its size, Turkey provides a unique environment to capture these factors and their effects on economic performance. The three factors identified here can be categorized as interest rate, central bank foreign exchange position and liquidity. The empirical evidence reveals that these three factors affect all the economic-state variables considered in the paper in different directions and magnitudes.     

Monetary policy implementation and transmission in the European Monetary Union

I discuss possible problems engendered by loss of national monetary policies, and study them from three empirical perspectives. First, are business cycles sufficiently synchronized across EMU member countries? The evidence suggests that economic activity in those countries has become increasingly correlated in the 1990s, and that policy co–ordination has played a role in generating that outcome. Second, are there asymmetries in the mechanisms through which policy affects economic activity? The paper documents that policy transmission was indeed heterogeneous in the member countries, and that structural and financial factors were sensibly related to cross–country differences in the response of output to a monetary policy shock. Third, how is policy implemented in an environment of diverse business cycle fundamentals and transmission mechanisms? Estimation of monetary policy reaction functions finds that the European Central Bank is closer to an aggregate of the central banks in Germany, France, and Italy than to the Bundesbank alone.     

Wage–price dynamics and income distribution in a semi-structural Keynes–Goodwin model

The paper studies the role of income distribution within a medium-scale macrodynamic model built in a Keynesian and Goodwinian tradition. Combining a wage and price Phillips curve, adjustments of an inflation climate, an IS relationship determining output, Okun’s law for employment and the Taylor rule for monetary policy, a semi-structural model is obtained that incorporates the most important macroeconomic channels in a closed economy. After assessing the reasonable time series variabilities in stochastic simulations, a deeper analysis is concerned with the stabilizing and destabilizing effects of the model’s parameters, and with a structural shift in income distribution. In many details of these investigations, the distinction between a wage-led and profit-led regime becomes important.     

Monetary policy in open economies

The recent literature on monetary policy in open economies has produced a strong presumption in favor of activistic policy and flexible exchange rates. We argue that this result may owe much to the combination of two commonly made assumptions: That nominal goods prices are rigid. And that the monetary authorities have a lot of information about the economy. When the source of nominal rigidity is found in wages and monetary policy is conducted according to less information demanding rules (such as a standard interest rate rule) policies that stabilize the money supply or the nominal exchange rate may perform better.     

Monetary policy and the choice of a monetary instrument in a stochastic setting

Should the FED try to set some monetary aggregate, or should it try to create certain credit conditions by setting interest rates? This question has been examined extensively within models that are essentially non-stochastic or certainty equivalent; however, the question is not meaningful to the monetary authority unless one postulates a stochastic setting. This paper attempts to analyze the question within a stochastic setting. It illustrates the new dimensions added by incorporating risk adverse economic behavior, “rational” expectations, and randomized policy settings.     

Monetary and fiscal policy interactions in a New Keynesian model with capital accumulation and non-Ricardian consumers

The paper examines simple monetary and fiscal policy rules consistent with determinate equilibrium dynamics in the absence of Ricardian equivalence. Under this assumption, government debt turns into a relevant state variable which needs to be accounted for in the analysis of equilibrium dynamics. The key analytical finding is that without explicit reference to the level of government debt it is not possible to infer how strongly the monetary and fiscal instruments should be used to ensure determinate equilibrium dynamics. Specifically, we identify bifurcations associated with threshold values of steady-state debt, leading to qualitative changes in the local determinacy requirements.     

Monetary policy of a small open economy in the world production chain

In the world production chain there is a small economy that outsources production to its upstream, sells intermediate goods to its downstream and consumes imported final goods. It is shown that in responding to shocks from demand for intermediate goods, from the wage rate in the upstream and from the currency exchange rate between the upstream and downstream countries, the monetary policy of the small country is insignificant in the sense that any attempt of changing its monetary stance to raise national welfare will be offset by the movements of exchange rates.     

Monetary policy under a fiscal theory of sovereign default

This paper examines equilibrium determination under different monetary policy regimes when the government might default on its debt. We apply a cash-in-advance model where the government does not have access to non-distortionary taxation and does not account for initial outstanding debt when it sets the income tax rate. Solvency is then not guaranteed and sovereign default can affect the return on public debt. If the central bank sets the interest rate in a conventional way, the equilibrium allocation cannot be determined. If, instead, money supply is controlled, the equilibrium allocation can uniquely be determined.     

Volatility spillovers and the global financial cycle across economies: Evidence from a global semi-structural model

The paper provides some evidence on the relevance of global uncertainty and risk aversion and the lesser importance of US interest rates for the global financial and business cycles. As framework, we use a global semi-structural model augmented with financial and trade interlinkages. Financial interlinkages are modelled with proposed global uncertainty, global risk aversion and global financial cycle channels. Trade interlinkages are modelled with proposed value-chain trade equations. We find that global uncertainty and global risk aversion are, by far, the main volatility factors in all economies. Other volatility factors such as US interest rates, foreign interest rates and trade-related factors rarely explain shares of forecast error variance above one percent.