Non‐Parametric Modelling of CO2 Emission Quota

Dutch glasshouse firms are facing the introduction of a system of tradable CO₂ emission quotas. This paper employs a non‐parametric method for modelling tradable CO₂ emissions of Dutch glasshouse firms. The method is capable of generating shifts in CO₂ emissions across the sample of firms. Moreover, changes in volumes of outputs produced and inputs used are computed. Results show that firms using a conventional heating technology will be net purchasers of CO₂ emissions, whereas firms using more advanced heating technologies will sell part of their emission quota.     

Making explicit agricultural ecosystem service trade-offs: a case study of an English lowland arable farm

European farmland hosts a species assemblage of animals and plants which have undergone declines through the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries, at least partly as a result of increased productivity. Further increases in human populations, changes in availability and cost of raw materials, policy constraints, price volatility and climatic changes will further drive greater efficiency and high yields in agriculture, with the risk of further adverse environmental impacts. We assess the effects of different management priorities (production-driven cropping vs. wildlife-friendly farming) at an arable farm in eastern England on food production, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and biodiversity. We modelled one actual and three alternative cropping scenarios using actual yields from the farm over 13 years, to calculate total yields and those foregone for agri-environmental measures. We measured crop yields, relative abundance of 19 farmland bird species, and CO₂ and N₂O emissions related to crop production. Removing up to 10.5% of land from production coupled with a more diverse rotation (including legumes) resulted in a large increase in breeding birds (177%) and reduction of 9.4% in GHG emissions at the cost of 9.6% of food energy. Food protein lost was only 2.9%. A smaller increase in bird numbers of 50% could be achieved at a much smaller cost to yield (～1.7% energy or protein) but with correspondingly smaller emissions reductions (1.2%). Results are discussed within the context of continued biodiversity loss to agriculture, increasing food demand and changing diets.     

Policy options towards deforestation reduction in Cameroon: An analysis based on a systematic approach

This study advances measures that can combat deforestation in Cameroon. It also looks at possible carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission reductions and the effects on gross domestic product (GDP) and employment based on selected baseline scenarios based on reductions in deforestation. A systematic approach of analyzing the drivers, agents, socio-economic context, political context, spatial context of deforestation and specific and general deforestation reduction policies is used. The final step of the approach is to verify the repercussions of deforestation reduction on CO₂ emissions, employment and GDP. Monitoring population growth and arable production through intensification of production is promising. The general policies that this study postulates are enforcement, legal adherence, specification of tasks and quotas, collaboration, forest licensing and monitoring. More specific policies could be within the reduction of emissions from deforestation and forest degradation mechanism (REDD+) as well as diversification of livelihoods, mechanization, use of fertilizers and intensive cattle farming inter alia. Reductions in deforestation will reduce atmospheric CO₂, employment in the forestry sector and the share of forestry's contribution to GDP.     

Projected impacts of increased uptake of source control mitigation measures on agricultural diffuse pollution emissions to water and air

A multi-pollutant modelling framework for England and Wales is described. This includes emissions of nitrate, phosphorus and sediment to water and ammonia, methane and nitrous oxide to air, and has been used to characterise baseline (no uptake of on-farm measures) and business-as-usual (BAU) annual pollutant losses, comparing these with the loss under a range of new policies aimed at increasing the uptake of relevant source control measures to 95% across England and Wales. Model outputs, including uncertainty ranges, evaluated using national water and air quality data layers have been summarised at both farm (Robust Farm Type) and water management catchment (WMC) scale. Nationally, across all farm types, the median annual reductions in pollutant losses under the new scenario, relative to BAU in 2010, were predicted to range between 9 and 16% for nitrate, 13–37% for phosphorus, 12–21% for sediment, 2–57% for methane and 10–17% for nitrous oxide. For ammonia, the range was −2–28%, indicating the potential for pollution swapping and an increase in ammonia emissions under scenarios designed to reduce nitrogen flux to waters. Increased uptake of pollution source control measures would result in a wide range of annual total (capital and operational) costs (per farm) for the major farm types, with median estimates ranging from £635 yr⁻¹ (Less Favourable Areas (LFA) with grazing livestock) to £15,492 yr⁻¹ (Cereals) in Nitrate Vulnerable Zone (NVZ) areas, compared with a range of £23 yr⁻¹ to £13,484 yr⁻¹ for the same respective farm types in non-NVZ areas. The estimated median annual load reductions for all WMCs relative to BAU, were predicted to be 16% for nitrate, 20% for phosphorus, 16% for sediment, 16% for ammonia, 15% for methane and 18% for nitrous oxide. These predictions suggest that almost perfect (95% uptake) implementation of source control measures will not deliver substantial improvements in pollutant emissions.     

Assessment of land use and land cover changes and valuation of carbon stocks in the Sergipe semiarid region,Brazil: 1992–2030

The semiarid region in the state of Sergipe, Brazil, approximately 11,000 km², has experienced high deforestation rates in the last decades, which ultimately contribute to global climatic changes. The valuation of ecosystem services of CO₂ sequestration can support definition of environmental policies to decrease deforestation in that region. This study aimed to assess land use and land cover changes in the Sergipe semiarid region between 1992 and 2017 by applying remotely sensed data and technics; simulate the land use and land cover changes between 2017 and 2030 by applying a cellular automaton model, by assuming current land use trends (Business as Usual – BAU) as a reference scenario, and a more conservative scenario (Protected Forest – PF), in which was assumed an effective enforcement of the Brazilian Forest Code established in 2012; simulate the carbon stocks by 2017 assuming the BAU and PF scenarios by 2030, and estimate the Carbon balance between the 2030 and 2017 scenarios; and estimate the economic valuation of carbon emission and sequestration by using the InVEST software. The results showed that agriculture (cropped lands) was main driver of the landscape changes in the study area, which increased 14% by 2017, a net increase of 1494.45 km². The results showed that the total Carbon emissions would reach 736,900 Mg CO₂-eq by assuming the BAU scenario, which would increase the cost of opportunity up to US$ 17.7 million and a social carbon cost varying between US$ 10.3 and US$ 30.2 million. The restoration of the permanent preservation areas could contribute to increase Carbon sequestration up to 481,900 Mg CO₂-eq by 2030, which is equivalent cost of US$ 11.6 million. The natural landscape in the Sergipe semiarid region was strongly affected by deforestation activities occurred between 1992 and 2017. It requires, therefore, effective actions to support and promote restoration of degraded areas. The forested areas within the Sergipe semiarid region were the most affected type of vegetation because of expansion of agricultural fields soil exposures (Exposed Land). Environmental assessments based on scenarios and economic valuations can provide crucial information to support policy and decision makers to improve strategies for environmental management and conservation.     

基于DNDC的茶园土壤碳素空间分异及其影响因素——以福建省安溪县为例

[目的]通过探究福建省安溪县茶园土壤碳素储量,揭示各碳素指标的空间分异特征及其关键影响因子,有助于为减少茶园温室气体排放和建设生态茶园提供决策支撑。[方法]文章运用反硝化分解（denitrification decomposition, DNDC）模型和空间统计分析方法对茶园土壤碳素进行模拟和研究。[结果]（1）经过参数率定的DNDC模型对茶园土壤碳素动态循环的模拟具有较好的适用性;（2）安溪茶园土壤有机碳含量丰富,土壤肥力较好。凋落物输入碳是茶园土壤碳素输入的主要来源,平均输入量为505.52 kg/hm2,而通过呼吸作用转化为CO2排放是茶园土壤碳素输出的重要途径,平均CO2排放量为883.78 kg/hm2;(3)茶园SOC10～20cm量、凋落物输入碳量、CH4排放量、CO2排放量均呈现空间聚集分布特征,主要分布在安溪县西部的低山与中低山地区;（4）初始土壤属性中黏粒含量和土壤有机碳含量是影响安溪县茶园土壤碳素空间分异的关键因子,其中土壤黏粒含量对茶园土壤CO2排放量和CH4排放量的影响最强且负向作用效果明显。[结论]安溪县西部等低山和中低山区域土壤肥力较好,但亦应谨慎对待该区...     

The Impact of FDI on CO2 Emissions in Latin America

This paper uses panel Granger causality tests to study the relationship between sector-specific foreign direct investment (FDI) and CO₂ emissions. Using a sample of 18 Latin American countries for the period 1980–2007, we find causality running from FDI in pollution-intensive industries (“the dirty sector”) to CO₂ emissions per capita. This result is robust to controlling for other factors associated with CO₂ emissions and using the ratio of CO₂ emissions to GDP. For other sectors, we find no robust evidence that FDI causes CO₂ emissions.     

Forest carbon benefits,costs and leakage effects of carbon reserve scenarios in the United States

This study evaluated the potential effectiveness of future carbon reserve scenarios, where U.S. forest landowners would hypothetically be paid to sequester carbon on their timberland and forego timber harvests for 100 years. Scenarios featured direct payments to landowners of $0 (baseline), $5, $10, or $15 per metric ton of additional forest carbon sequestered on the set aside lands, with maximum annual expenditures of $3 billion. Results indicated that from 1513 to 6837 Tg (Teragrams) of additional carbon (as carbon dioxide equivalent, CO₂e) would be sequestered on U.S. timberlands relative to the baseline case over the next 50 years (30–137 Tg CO₂e annually). These projected amounts of sequestered carbon on timberlands take into account projected increases in timber removal and forest carbon losses on other timberlands (carbon leakage effects). Net effectiveness of carbon reserve scenarios in terms of overall net gain in timberland carbon stocks from 2010 to 2060 ranged from 0.29 tCO₂e net carbon increase for a payment of $5/tCO₂e to the landowner (71% leakage), to 0.15 tCO₂e net carbon increase for a payment of $15/tCO₂e to the landowner (85% leakage). A policy or program to buy carbon credits from landowners would need to discount additions to the carbon reserve by the estimated amount of leakage. In the scenarios evaluated, the timber set-asides reduced timberland area available for harvest up to 35% and available timber inventory up to 55%, relative to the baseline scenario over the next 50 years, resulting in projected changes in timber prices, harvest levels, and forest product revenues for the forest products sector.     

An open-access method for targeting revegetation based on potential for emissions reduction,carbon sequestration and opportunity cost

We propose a simple heuristic that uses open-access models and government data on agricultural activities to estimate total carbon emissions from agriculture, the gross carbon benefit and the opportunity cost per tonne CO₂-e from revegetating to environmental plantings or plantation forestry. We test this across ten areas of mixed land-use that represent diverse Australian agricultural systems along a rainfall transect. The local value of agricultural production was obtained from government statistics and used to estimate the current economic opportunity cost of converting cleared agricultural land to mixed environmental plantings for carbon sequestration. Gross carbon benefit from revegetation was closely related to current agricultural use, as was financial opportunity cost. These were not related simply to site productivity potential or rainfall. The proportion of land cleared for agriculture that would need to be re-vegetated to achieve a localised zero-carbon land-use scenario was calculated by the ratio of current agricultural emissions to gross carbon benefit from revegetation; this ranged from 13% to 66% for groups of agricultural industries across Australian rainfall transects. While the heuristic does not capture the detail of models built specifically for local research questions it does provide a different lens on the questions policy makers and land managers may ask about the costs and benefits of revegetating agricultural land, and provides open-access methods to guide them.     

The regional economic effects of a reduction in carbon emissions

Concern about climate change has led to policy to reduce CO₂ emissions although it is likely that policy will have differential regional impacts. While regional impacts will be politically important, very little analysis of them has been carried out. This paper contributes to the analysis of this issue by building a small model involving two regions, incorporating the right to emit CO₂ as a factor of production with the level of permitted emissions set by the national government. We argue that there is likely to be pressure on governments to use other policies to offset the possible adverse regional economic consequences of the pollution‐reduction policy; we also consider a range of such policies. Using numerical simulation, we find that a 10 per cent reduction has relatively small but regionally differentiated economic effects. Standard fiscal policies are generally ineffective or counterproductive while labour market policies are more useful in offsetting the adverse effects.     

On the structural development of arable land in Finland – How costly will it be for the climate?

Finland is the most sparsely populated country in the European Union. Finland's northern location presents special challenges for the profitability of agriculture. At the same time Finland has a fragmented property structure which means that each farmer cultivates a number of separate fields that are scattered into small parcels located around the village. The situation came into being because of land reforms whose purpose was to handle socio-political issues and not to improve the feasibility of farms. It is obvious that this inefficient property structure increases the cultivation costs but what is often forgotten is that it also increases the harmful emissions to the climate.The purpose of this article is to present the property structure of arable land and its development in Finland until 2020. The main objective is to estimate the monetary value for those climate impacts that the development causes. The study was set up to analyze land management tools and their capabilities to handle the future challenges. First, the study estimates how much petrol consumption increases because of the increased need for agricultural traffic due to the forecasted development of property structure. Secondly, the study estimates a monetary value for the increased emissions to the climate due to the changes in petrol consumption. To estimate the monetary value of the climate effect a substitute cost method is used.It was estimated that by year 2020 the agricultural working hours will increase by almost three million hours per year from its current level because of the expected changes in property structure. By using the information about petrol consumption and emission rate of petrol, it was calculated that the total increase in CO₂-emissions will be more than 200 000 tkgCO₂ per year. By using the information about the level of increase in CO₂-emission and their shadow prices, it was calculated that the changes in property structure will cost 37 million euros until year 2020 and 544 million euros until year 2050. The sensitivity analysis showed that the results are strongly dependable on shadow prices of CO₂-emissions, property structure's development scenarios and the expected fuel efficiency of agricultural machinery. On the other hand it also showed that the impact will be remarkable especially in the long run if the changes in property structure cannot be prevented.The study showed that there is a massive potential for land management activities. But since the current land management tools that are utilized in Finland are not efficient to handle the future problems the toolbox should be renewed. As the renewing work requires both legislative and organizational changes the progress will take time. This means that the harmful impacts that the development of property structure causes will be realized in the upcoming decades. The study concludes that the increase in CO₂-emissions doesn’t concern only Finland but also other EU countries and that is why the matter should be investigated in other countries as well.     

Marginal Abatement Cost Curves for UK Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Emissions

This article addresses the challenge of developing a ‘bottom‐up’ marginal abatement cost curve (MACC) for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from UK agriculture. An MACC illustrates the costs of specific crop, soil and livestock abatement measures against a ‘business as usual’ scenario. The results indicate that in 2022 under a specific policy scenario, around 5.38 Mt CO₂ equivalent (e) could be abated at negative or zero cost. A further 17% of agricultural GHG emissions (7.85 Mt CO₂e) could be abated at a lower unit cost than the UK Government’s 2022 shadow price of carbon [£34 (tCO₂e)^?1]. The article discusses a range of methodological hurdles that complicate cost‐effectiveness appraisal of abatement in agriculture relative to other sectors.     

Projecting future crop productivity for global economic modeling

Assessments of climate change impacts on agricultural markets and land‐use patterns rely on quantification of climate change impacts on the spatial patterns of land productivity. We supply a set of climate impact scenarios on agricultural land productivity derived from two climate models and two biophysical crop growth models to account for some of the uncertainty inherent in climate and impact models. Aggregation in space and time leads to information losses that can determine climate change impacts on agricultural markets and land‐use patterns because often aggregation is across steep gradients from low to high impacts or from increases to decreases. The four climate change impact scenarios supplied here were designed to represent the most significant impacts (high emission scenario only, assumed ineffectiveness of carbon dioxide fertilization on agricultural yields, no adjustments in management) but are consistent with the assumption that changes in agricultural practices are covered in the economic models. Globally, production of individual crops decrease by 10–38% under these climate change scenarios, with large uncertainties in spatial patterns that are determined by both the uncertainty in climate projections and the choice of impact model. This uncertainty in climate impact on crop productivity needs to be considered by economic assessments of climate change.     

Integrating spatial dependence into Stochastic Frontier Analysis

An approach to incorporate spatial dependence into stochastic frontier analysis is developed and applied to a sample of 215 dairy farms in England and Wales. A number of alternative specifications for the spatial weight matrix are used to analyse the effect of these on the estimation of spatial dependence. Estimation is conducted using a Bayesian approach and results indicate that spatial dependence is present when explaining technical inefficiency.     

Urban sprawl and climate change: A statistical exploration of cause and effect,with policy options for the EU

This study provides a brief evaluation of the relationship between trends in transport emissions and urban land-use by analysing correlation between transport CO₂ emissions data, GDP and population data with land-use change data from the CORINE database for EU Member States between 1990 and 2000.     

Allocating provincial CO2 quotas for the Chinese national carbon program

In order to improve the efficiency of climate change initiatives China launched its national carbon market in December 2017. Initial CO2 quota allocations are a matter of significant concern. How should we allocate CO₂ emissions reduction responsibilities among Chinese provinces, assuming that provinces will not or cannot trade these responsibilities among themselves? In this paper, we allocate CO₂ quota from the perspective of cost minimisation. First, we estimate the national CO₂ marginal abatement cost (MAC) function and deduce the interprovincial MAC functions. Second, we build an allocation model with nonlinear programming for cost minimisation. Finally, we obtain the allocation results under the emissions reduction target by 2030. The results are as follows. (i) The national MAC was 134.3 Yuan/t (at the constant price of 1978) in 2011, with an overall upward trend from 1990 to 2011. (ii) The interprovincial MACs differ significantly and decline gradually from east to west. Hebei has the largest emissions reduction quota, and Shandong has the largest emissions quota by 2030. (iii) Compared with other criteria of per capita, gross domestic product (GDP), grandfathering and carbon intensity, the proposed approach is the most cost‐effective in achieving the reduction target, with cost savings of 37.7, 34.5, 47.9 and 33.87 per cent, respectively.     

Is forest carbon sequestration at the expense of bioenergy and forest products cost-efficient in EU climate policy to 2050?

Forest management affects the quantity of CO₂ emissions in the atmosphere through carbon sequestration in standing biomass, carbon storage in forest products and production of bioenergy. The main question studied in this paper is whether forest carbon sequestration is worth increasing at the expense of bioenergy and forest products to achieve the EU emissions reduction target for 2050 in a cost-efficient manner. A dynamic cost minimisation model is used to find the optimal combination of carbon abatement strategies to meet annual emissions targets between 2010 and 2050. The results indicate that forest carbon sequestration is a low-cost abatement method. With sequestration, the net present costs of meeting EU carbon targets can be reduced by 23%.     

Logs or permits? Forestry land use decisions in an emissions trading scheme

Negative carbon emissions options are required to meet long-term climate goals in many countries. One way to incentivise these options is by paying farmers for carbon sequestered by forests through an emissions trading scheme (ETS). New Zealand has a comprehensive ETS, which includes incentives for farmers to plant permanent exotic forests. This research uses an economy-wide model, a forestry model and land use change functions to measure the expected proportion of farmers with trees at harvesting age that will change land use from production to permanent forests in New Zealand from 2014 to 2050. We also estimate the impacts on carbon sequestration, the carbon price, gross emissions, GDP and welfare. When there is forestry land use change, the results indicate that the responsiveness of land owners to the carbon price has a measured impact on carbon sequestration. For example, under the fastest land use change scenario, carbon sequestration reaches 29.93 Mt CO₂e by 2050 compared to 23.41 Mt CO₂e in the no land use change scenario (a 28% increase). Even under the slowest land use change scenario, carbon sequestration is 25.89 Mt CO₂e by 2050 (an 11% increase compared with no land use change). This is because, if foresters decide not to switch to permanent forests in 1 year, carbon prices and ultimately incentives to convert to permanent forests will be higher in future years.     

Methodology to calculate the carbon footprint of household land use in the urban planning stage

The growing concerns of climate change require implementing measures to quantify, to monitor and to minimize greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Nonetheless, most of the measures available are not easy to define or execute because they rely on current emissions and have a corrective character. To address this issue, a methodology to characterize GHG emissions that allows implementing preventive measures is proposed in this paper. The methodology is related to household urban planning procedures and considers urban infrastructures to characterize GHG emissions and to execute preventive measures based on sustainability design criteria. The methodology has been tested by applying it to a set of medium-sized municipalities with average GHG emissions from 6,822.32 kgCO_2eq/year to 5,913.79 kgCO_2eq/year for every residential unit. The results indicate that the greatest pollutant source is transport, especially in the issuance of street network design, followed by gas and electricity consumption. The average undevelopable land area required for the complete GHG emissions capture amounts to 3.42 m² of undevelopable land for every m² of urbanizable land and 9.02 m² of undevelopable land for every m² of built land.