国际石油价格影响因素分析

全球化的石油市场具有高度不确定性,造成了石油价格的复杂多变。从供需入手,从长期和短期两方面分析石油的价格变动影响因素。     

石油价格波动分析及其对我国经济的影响

石油是重要的战略资源,进入新世纪以来石油价格一路高涨且波动频繁,油价成为全球关注的焦点.本文从供求驱动,美元汇率,成本变动,投机行为,地缘政治等几个方面研究影响石油价格波动的因素.然后分析由于近年来石油价格不断波动,给我国宏观经济运行所带来的种种影响,并通过实证分析验证油价与各项宏观经济指标之间的关系.     

基于协整和VECM的石油价格变动对河南省CPI影响研究

以河南省1990-2011年的石油价格与居民消费价格指数(CPI)数据为基础,运用ADF检验、协整检验和向量误差修正模型(VECM)对石油价格和居民消费价格指数的数据进行了分析和研究。研究结果表明:长期而言,石油价格与河南省居民消费价格指数之间存在单向的因果关系。石油价格每增长10%,会导致居民消费价格指数(CPI)增长0.1%;短期而言,石油价格变动对居民消费价格指数的影响存在滞后性,滞后两期比滞后一期的影响显著。这表明石油价格波动对河南省居民消费价格指数的影响程度大,影响时间久。     

石油价格对国民经济影响测度模型

2000年世界原油市场价格的大幅度上涨，对我国经济产生了比较大的影响，石油安全问题成为急需研究的问题。石油安全的目标应该是确保国家经济发展目标的实现，防止石油价格大幅度变动对国民经济的冲击。本文利用投入产出模型分析、计算了油价波动对我国经济的影响。     

能源价格波动的经济影响 ——以对中国经济运行的影响为例

能源是经济发展中必不可缺的生产资料.上世纪70年代石油价格冲击已对世界经济造成巨大冲击.再加之,近年来国际能源市场价格波动较大,2008年金融危机的发生一定程度上影响了国际能源价格走势,国际能源市场的价格变化更加难以预测.为了研究能源价格波动的经济影响,通过建立中国42部门的一般可计算均衡模型(CGE模型),以中国为例来研究国际能源价格变动对经济的影响.     

高油价阴影下的中国石油安全战略

近一段时间以来，世界石油价格由于伊拉克局势动荡而居高不下，这不可避免对世界和地区经济发展产生一定的影响。而对于中国来说，由于国民经济持续快速发展，石油消费量将逐年增加，因而世界石油价格的波动将产生较大的影响。因此，根据中国国情制定一个切实可行的中国石油安全战略，就显得尤其必要。     

国际黄金价格影响因素及分析

近年来,随着世界经济的发展,作为拥有规避风险,保值增值的黄金也更加受到关注,对黄金价格的研究也显得更为重要。文章从黄金价格的一般影响因素,如供求关系,石油价格等入手,根据时间序列的相关理论,运用eviews软件,建立模型,对影响黄金价格的相关因素进行分析。从而得出黄金价格的影响因素,并提出相应建议。     

20世纪以来石油计价货币的演变及对国际货币体系的影响

石油价格的波动为国际原油价格以及经济金融的发展带来诸多的不稳定性因素,这种现象的产生使更多的专家学者开始关注研究这一问题。明确石油价格发生变化的原因,石油价格的变化对经济发展的影响,现代石油经营与发展过程中出现的问题都是研究的主要内容。随着研究的不断深入,可以发现货币因素是影响国际石油贸易的主要因素。本文在就20世纪以来石油计价货币的演变进行研究入手．重点分析石油计价的历史以及对国际货币体系的影响。     

石油价格波动刍议

自19世界60年代世界完成由煤炭到石油的能源转换以来,石油逐渐成为发展经济和壮大军事力量的重要物资基础,成为关系到国民经济发展、国家政治军事和外交安全的重要战略物资,石油价格的波动影响着世界经济的健康运行。然而,很少有商品比石油的波动更具戏剧性了,从19世纪70 年代以来,石油价格几起几落,尤其在 2004年以来石油价格在跌宕起伏中稳步攀升,本文试图介析将这两年以来油价波动的主要原因。     

积极应对高油价负面影响 促进海峡西岸经济区建设

石油是一种重要的、可耗竭的资源，是全球关注的战略物资，事关世界各国(地区)的经济安全。历史上数次石油价格大幅上涨，均冲击了世界经济。石油价格偏高对经济的影响主要有两方面：第一，制约了石油消费国国民经济的发展。据IEA和OPEC专家估算，石油价格上升10美元并持续1年，将使世界经济增长速度减少0．5个百分点，发达国家减少0．25个百分点，发展中国家减少0．75个百分点；第二，过高的石油价格通过产业链带动了广泛的下游企业相关产品价格上涨，     

原油价格支配因素分析

当今,原油价格在世界经济衰退的形势下持续高位运行,2010年美国进口原油平均价格达到74美元。持续增长的中国经济对进口原油的依赖程度将会继续加大。要保障中国的能源安全,以较低的能源成本为中国经济提供动力,就需要对原油价格决定因素进行分析。本文从原油的历史出发,分析原油价格在各个阶段的决定因素,根据当前世界原油价格的决定因素,有针对性地提出建议,为国家石油战略提供参考。     

Forecast Summary

Short-term economic prospects for the UK will depend critically on what happens to oil prices and on the government's response to any changes. Our central case assumes that North Sea oil averages £20 a barrel for the remainder of the year and that the government holds the sterling index at about 74. In the Focus we also examine the sensitivity of the forecast to changes in oil prices. The willingness of the government to let the exchange rate fall in response to the fall in oil prices means that we still expect GDP to grow by about 21/2. per cent in 1986 and we expect inflation to fall below 4 per cent by the middle of the year. Lower oil prices generate a faster growth of world output; the UK benefits from this and we are forecasting growth of nearly 3 per cent in 1987 with inflation falling further.     

浅谈新时期中国面临的石油危机

伴随着中国经济的高速发展,影响中国战略机遇期的新因素不断增加,其中中国面临的石油危机日益凸显,包括石油供求关系、南海争端、石油进口、运输及战略储备都影响到了我国石油安全。因此,为缓解中国石油市场供需压力、保障能源安全和减少石油对外依存度,我们应该审时度势,建立石油多元化战略、有效应对南海争端、完善石油战略储备体系,保证我国新时期经济更好、更快的发展。     

如何发挥信息分析在营销中的作用

通过市场信息分析预测,指导原料采购、生产方案的改变、以及销售策略的制定。主要是根据国家政策导向,整理分析反馈信息,了解成品油市场的影响因素,判断市场的走势,为销售调整油品价格提供理论依据。分析市场、积极适应市场,企业效益实现最大化,是信息分析的最高目标。     

高油价下企业如何降低道路货物运输成本

近年来国内油价不断攀升,油价的上涨带动了国内各行业成本的持续增长,在涨价趋势中主要以汽油和柴油消耗为主的道路货物运输业受到了很大冲击,油价上调直接影响了道路货物运输业的成本和运价,同时产生了一定的行业和社会效应。文章以成品油涨价为背景,从企业自身出发,探讨了一些降低道路货物运输成本切实可行的措施,期望对企业在降低运输成本和提高行业竞争力方面有所帮助。     

WORLD OUTLOOK

The world recovery, now three years old, has proved more resilient than many expected and will be sustained in 1986 by lower oil prices. Fears that the early-1985 slowdown would turn into renewed recession have proved unfounded, as output in both the United States and Europe picked up in the second half of the year. The improvement stemmed from lower interest rates, falling inflation and weak commodity prices and was further helped by the sharp correction to the value of the dollar following September's G5 agreement. To these factors, which will remain supportive this year, is now added a lower oil price. The recovery in world output has not produced an increase in oil demand and, as the oil price rise of 1979-80 gave a further boost to supply from non-OPEC sources, a severe imbalance has emerged in the oil market. To maintain a £26 marker price (itself cut from £29 last July) has required a cutback in production of ever-increasing magnitude from Saudi Arabia in its role as OPEC's swing producer. Now that Saudi Arabia has abandoned this role in favour of stabilising its market share, oil prices have fallen sharply. We assume that the oil price will fall to £20 by the end of this year, a fall in real terms of 30 per cent. As a result the world recovery is given renewed impetus and output accelerates over the next twelve months. A cyclical peak in activity emerges in 1987, after which output growth settles at 2%-3 per cent and inflation at 4–5 per cent.     

房地产价格波动的经济因素分析

房地产业是国民经济的基础、先导性产业。房地产价格的讨论一直都是热门话题,影响房价的经济因素主要在于供求状况、经济基本面、城市化进程、经济周期、经济全球化等方面。与此同时,政策的变动也是价格波动的因素之一,与经济因素相辅相成。本文从理论上分析了房地产价格的影响因素,并以实际出发分析了房地产价格的构成,就政府如何从根本上抑制房地产价格提出建议。     

The Effects of Industry Governance on Offshore Oil Development in the Gulf of Mexico

This article presents an historical analysis of the way governance arrangements in the petroleum industry have affected development of offshore oil resources in the Gulf of Mexico. Global competition over differential rents and natural value available from petroleum extraction were instrumental in the construction of oil prices high enough to support profitable investment offshore. Attention to the social construction of oil prices illustrates how political discourse on national security and conservation helps translate economic logic into strategic political coalitions and state action. The article shows how the unequal flow of resources in a global extractive industry, as organized by transnational corporations and states, interacts with marginal costs and differential rents to influence economic development. Development of Louisiana offshore oil after the second world war was protected by a private international price cartel, federally enforced import quotas and tax laws. Competition in the industry and the OPEC price increases of the 1970s undermined US domination of world oil, but higher oil prices further stimulated investment offshore. The subsequent breakdown of stable governance in the 1980s drove down oil prices, hastened restructuring of the petroleum industry and caused a rapid decline in Louisiana offshore investment.     

The London Business School with Gower Publishing

Output has stagnated in the main industrialised countries this year but we expect the benefits of lower oil prices to show up in rapid growth from now on. The present weakness in the world economy stems from tighter US fiscal policy and the oil price shock itself. These have combined to reduce domestic demand in the United States, and hence to cut the market for Japanese exports in particular, and also to reduce expenditure by energydependent countries and companies. A further factor is that, with prices of oil-based products falling, there is an incentive to delay expenditure. We expect this impact effect of OPEC III to be short-lived and to give way to its positive effects in the second half of this year. Specifically, we expect consumer spending to lead the recovery as real incomes will be boosted by the terms of trade gain from lower oil prices - equivalent to 3 per cent of GNP in the OECD area as a whole. On the basis of oil prices holding at $15. we forecast OECD output growth of 3 per cent this year, rising to 41/2 per cent in 1987. Additionally, we expect lower oil prices to produce a significant reduction in world inflation. Zero growth of producer prices is forecast on average this year arid consumer price inflation is expected to fall to wards 2 per cent in the course of the year.     

WORLD OUTLOOK

After six years of steadily rising OECD output, fears of a significant rise in world inflation are now increasing. In the last year there has been a slight pick-up in inflation with producer prices up nearly d per cent. But prompt action by the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates before the presidential election appears to have damped inflationary expectations in the US and has given Japan and Germany an opportunity to tighten monetary policy without causing major currency fluctuations. It is also apparent that the other possible source of world inflation, commodity prices, is not a problem. OPEC over-production has ensured that the oil price remains weak and other commodity prices appear to have stopped rising after a brief acceleration at the beginning of the year. Nevertheless the major imbalances in world trade are declining only slowly and without a change in fiscal policy in the major economies it is difficult to believe that minor changes in monetary policy will be sufficient if the process of adjustment begins to falter. Despite these risks, we take a sanguine view of world prospects. Tighter monetary policy should effect a slowdown in world growth next year (already indicated by recent developments, particularly in the US) and this should be sufficient to control inflation which we expect to peak at just under 5 per cent at the beginning of next year. From 1990 onwards we see steady growth accompanied by low inflation.