Financial Development,International Trade,and Economic Growth in Australia: New Evidence From Multivariate Framework Analysis

This study investigates the relationship between financial development, international trade and economic growth for Australia over the period of 1965 to 2010. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration is applied to examine the long-run relationship among the series, whereas stationarity properties of the variables are tested by applying two structural break tests. Results confirm the long-run relationship among the variables. Financial development, international trade, and capital appear as the drivers of economic growth in short and long runs. The feedback effect exists between international trade and economic growth. Financial development Granger causes economic growth validating supply-side hypothesis.     

Putting the Cart before the Horse? Re-Examining the Relationship between Domestic Savings and Economic Growth in Selected Sub-Saharan African Countries

In addition to the standard Granger causality, this paper employs the Toda–Yamamoto approach and instantaneous causality test to examine the causal relationship between domestic savings and economic growth in 10 sub-Saharan African countries utilizing time series data. Findings from both the standard Granger causality and Toda–Yamamoto approach are consistent and robust only in five countries where domestic savings and economic growth are completely independent in three countries. For the remaining two, causality runs from savings to growth. However, for the other five countries, findings produced from both causality tests are grossly inconsistent and mixed leaving us under a quandary although the Toda–Yamamoto test is often reliable on account of its ability to avoid misleading results associated with the asymptotic nature of the standard Granger causality test. Our findings further reveal an instantaneous unidirectional causality from domestic savings to economic growth for only Benin, Mali, and South Africa suggesting that savings-led growth is rapid for these countries. We conclude based on our findings that the myriad of ‘evidence’ in earlier studies on savings-growth causality should be treated with caution given that methodological differences can produce misleading results with the potential of misdirecting policy.     

Understanding the Relationship between Inflation and Growth: A Wavelet Transformation Approach in the Case of Bangladesh

This paper re‐examines the relationship between inflation and economic growth in developing countries. Both the theoretical and the empirical literature are extremely divided on this issue. We apply a relatively new empirical technique – the continuous wavelet transform – to Bangladesh. Bangladesh is of interest because of its remarkable economic growth and poverty reduction during the last 30 years in combination with, for a developing country, a controlled inflation. The wavelet analysis is a contribution because it displays how the correlation and the lead–lag structure between variables change over timescales, taking into account that growth and inflation can follow several different cycles. Comovements between variables are generally studied in the time domain. Results from studies in the time‐domain study can be sensitive to the frequency of observations. On the other hand, studies in the frequency domain are not easily translated into time domains that can be associated with economic policies. The wavelet methodology finds a balance between time and frequency domains. Our study finds that growth Granger causes inflation at all frequency scales, starting from the short run to the very long run. Inflation, on the other hand, Granger causes growth in the long run but not in the short run. This result has implications for Bangladesh, and as such for similar developing countries, where some policymakers believe that inflation must be kept at very low levels for sustained economic growth.     

Distributive trade and regional productivity growth

The paper aims to investigate the relationship between distributive trade (wholesale and retail trade) and productivity growth across Italian provinces. In most studies, the potential determinants of productivity in the distributive trade have been investigated, while the impact of these activities on economic growth of the whole system has received less attention. By using panel data during the time period 2000–2013, the paper tests if the increase in the share of employees in distributive trade over the given period has promoted the productivity growth. This study applies both a random-effects model and, among the dynamic panel data estimators, a generalized method of moments estimator (GMM). In order to control both the issue of endogeneity, due to the presence of some potentially endogenous variables among the explanatory variables, and the problem of instrument proliferation, the GMM estimator is implemented together with a statistical method, which reduces the number of instruments when the set of endogenous variables is wide. The findings show that the distributive trade has a strong positive impact on the productivity growth. Moreover, this link is reinforced when we control the potential endogeneity. The results also support the idea that distributive trade can promote provincial convergence.     

服务业外商直接投资与经济增长——基于中国的实证研究

本文从我国服务业外商直接投资与服务业增加值、国内生产总值作为一个系统中相互决定和相互依存的内生变量角度构造动态模型,以此分析相互联系的变量间的互动关系和内在影响机制,并分析随机扰动对变量系统的动态冲击。本文的实证研究结果表明,我国服务业外商直接投资、服务业增加值、国内生产总值三变量之间在5%的显著水平上存在一个协整方程。同时,服务业增加值与GDP保持双向的Granger因果关系。在三变量的因果检验中,服务业外商直接投资是引起国内生产总值增长的Granger原因,但国内生产总值不是服务业外商直接投资变动的Granger因,即服务业外商直接投资与GDP不存在双向的因果关系。     

FDI and Growth: What Causes What?

This paper examines the causal relationship between FDI and economic growth by using an innovative econometric methodology to study the direction of causality between the two variables. We apply our methodology, based on the Toda‐Yamamoto test for causality, to time‐series data covering the period 1969–2000 for three developing countries, namely Chile, Malaysia and Thailand, all of them major recipients of FDI with a different history of macroeconomic episodes, policy regimes and growth patterns. Our empirical findings clearly suggest that it is GDP that causes FDI in the case of Chile and not vice versa, while for both Malaysia and Thailand, there is a strong evidence of a bi‐directional causality between the two variables. The robustness of the above findings is confirmed by the use of a bootstrap test employed to test the validity of our results.     

The income inequality,financial depth and economic growth nexus in China

Income inequality has increased in China despite rapid economic growth. Income inequality could impinge on future development, leading to social tension or political instability. Our study investigates the short-run and long-run relationship between three important macroeconomic indicators—income inequality, economic growth and financial depth. We utilise a two-step procedure of ARDL bounds and Granger causality for the analysis. The bounds test indicates the presence of a cointegrating relationship between income inequality, financial depth and economic growth in the long run. In the second step, we utilise the Granger causality approach. Results show a bidirectional causality between financial depth-growth and a unidirectional causality between inequality-growth in the short run. In the long run, results reveal that growth and financial depth determine Gini. Our findings provide support for the inequality-widening effect due to economic growth and higher credit provided to the private sector. We find no evidence of inequality-narrowing or income-equalising effect in the long run for the period of study. It is possible that the government's inclusive growth policies which started less than a decade ago have not taken effect for us to capture the inverted U-shape income equalising effect significantly.     

我国城乡居民消费、政府消费与经济增长的实证分析

以我国1978-2008年间的数据为样本,运用向量自回归模型分析了城乡居民消费、政府消费与经济增长之间的长期均衡关系,最后采用格兰杰因果检验对变量之间相互关系做了进一步检验。结果表明：城乡居民消费与经济增长之间相互影响,互为因果关系,且城镇居民消费对经济增长的影响更为显著;政府消费会引起经济负增长,同时也会对城乡居民消费有一定的挤出效应,尤其是对农村居民消费的挤出效应更大。     

A Quantitative Assessment of the Finance–Growth–Innovation Nexus in EEA Countries: Evidence from a Multivariate VECM

This paper uses country-level data of European Economic Area countries between 1989 and 2016 to examine the interactions between economic growth, innovation, and financial market activities, with specific reference to the bond and insurance markets. Our intent is to know whether causality runs among these variables both ways, or not at all. Using a vector error correction model, the study finds that financial market activities and economic growth determine innovation activities in these countries. Additionally, the study also finds bidirectional Granger causality between financial market activities and economic growth, as well as between innovation activities and economic growth.     

Foreign trade and economic growth: time series evidence from Latin America

This paper extends our understanding of the relationship between trade and growth by emphasizing time series evidence rather than the more traditional aggregate cross-section evidence from past studies. Cross-section studies obscure intercountry differences and sacrifice revealing information about dynamic behaviors within countries. Also, the nonstationary nature of many time series makes the use of period averages inappropriate. The use of time series data introduces other difficulties, however, and our analysis pays close attention to the possibility of spurious regressions, nonstationarity and cointegrating relationships among variables. Seventeen Latin American economies are examined, and a mixture of model forms must be applied to deal with the variety of temporal behaviors. The results confirm a positive relationship between export growth and aggregate economic growth over time for the majority of the seventeen countries.     

我国出口贸易对经济增长影响的实证分析

本文分别利用1983-2003年的年度数据和1995-2004年的季度数据,运用协整检验及Granger因果检验等方法对我国出口贸易对经济增长的影响进行双变量和多变量的实证分析,结果显示,我国出口与经济增长之间不存在长期稳定的动态均衡关系,但是它们之间存在互为因果的反馈性联系,说明我国现阶段的经济增长是出口导向型的,文章对产生这种现象的原因进行了解释并且给出了相应的政策建议。     

交通设施、金融深化、制度变迁及人力资本与FDI之间关系的实证研究

对外直接投资(FDI)对一个国家经济发展的影响是国际投资学理论研究的前沿和热点问题。FDI弥补了东道国的资金缺口,带来了先进的管理和技术等稀缺要素,同时FDI加速了东道国内部的产业结构调整和金融深化,推动了制度变迁,从多个角度深刻地影响了经济的发展。但是,究竟是东道国的哪些因素促进了FDI的流入?影响程度又有多大?为此,这里选择了有关制度变迁、金融深化、人均道路、产业结构、人力资本等多个自变量,利用现代计量经济学工具,对以上变量进行了选择,然后建立了它们与FDI的长期协整关系及误差修正模型,并进行了Granger因果检验,得出了有意义的结论。     

服务贸易出口对我国经济增长贡献的实证分析

本文以1985～2005年数据为样本,通过统计分析与计量经济分析,对服务贸易出口与我国经济增长间的关系进行了实证研究。结果表明：服务贸易出口与经济增长存在长期均衡关系,服务贸易出口促进了我国经济增长,服务贸易出口是经济增长的Granger原因。本文进一步分析了发展服务贸易,提高服务贸易出口对我国经济增长贡献度的政策和措施。     

论出口、消费与产出增长

本文采用时间序列和面板数据,对二战后11个高速增长经济体的出口、消费和产出三个变量之间的因果关系进行计量检验。对单个经济体的时间序列数据进行三变量向量自回归估计后发现,这些经济体的三变量之间存在不同的因果关系,并没有一般性的规律;而将这些经济体在1978-1996年的三变量进行面板向量自回归并进行因果检验后的结果显示,存在显著的出口和产出之间的双向因果关系,以及消费和产出的双向因果关系。本文的分析结果表明,对于快速赶超的发展中经济体,经济增长应该注意维持内部和外部的平衡,既重视出口也重视消费对经济增长的拉动作用。     

浙江省R＆D投入与经济增长的关系分析

研究与发展（R＆D）投入对经济增长的作用日益显著,已经有不少学者对R＆D投入与经济增长关系进行过研究。依据浙江省1990—2008年的统计数据,对R＆D投入与经济增长两个变量进行了ADF平稳性、协整和格兰杰因果关系检验,建立两者之间的误差修正模型。研究结果表明：R＆D投入与经济增长之间存在长期的均衡关系;R＆D投入是经济增长的格兰杰原因,但经济增长尚不是研发投入增加的格兰杰原因。这说明R＆D投入对浙江省经济增长起到一定的推动作用,但经济增长并没有带来R＆D投入的大幅增加。     

Thresholds of financial development in the Euro area

We analyse the dynamics of financial development and economic growth in the Euro area as these countries went through considerably higher levels of financial development. Using a balanced panel data of 38 years from 1980 to 2018, we offer new evidence on the finance–growth nexus. We show the presence of non-linearity as there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between finance and growth in the long run. Estimating the thresholds in the finance–growth nexus, we notice a threshold effect at 74%–86% of GDP for domestic credit; 51% of GDP for stock turnover ratio; and 65% of GDP for stock market capitalisation. We notice that exceeding the threshold causes deceleration in economic growth as too much finance results in crowding out effect for productive economic activities. The panel Granger causality test results show that financial development should be associated with optimal growth performance. These findings in the Euro area provide some useful policy implications to the emerging and developing economies in designing their financial development strategies.     

香港对外贸易与经济增长和产业结构升级——“一国两制”和改革开放的成功结合与实践

对香港1987～2007年时间序列数据单位根检验的基础上,验证对外贸易、经济增长与产业结构三者之间的Granger因果关系.研究发现,香港包括港产品出口、转口和进口在内的对外贸易与经济增长之间存在双向Granger因果关系;同时经济增长与产业结构之间也存在双向因果关系.通过对香港的研究进一步发现,香港地区对外贸易与经济增长,经济增长与产业结构之间能互为因果形成较好的经济运行状态,很大程度上得益于"一国两制"在香港的成功实践与内地改革开放的成功结合.     

新常态下产业结构变动与经济增长——基于省级动态面板数据的GMM方法

新常态下,正确处理好稳增长与调结构的关系,有重要的政策含义。文章通过构建NAV、MLI两个不同的产业结构变动指数,基于省级1993-2013年的面板数据,运用GMM方法进行了实证检验。结果表明：从全国范围来看,短期内,产业结构变动与经济增长之间存在双向格兰杰因果关系,而较长时期内,仅存在经济增长到产业结构变动的单向格兰杰因果关系。其次,从省级层面来看,产业结构变动与经济增长之间的格兰杰因果关系表现出很大的异质性。基于此结论,文章认为,产业政策并不具有较长时期有效性,产业政策的制定需要视期限、地区的不同而择机、择时制定;同时,要规避产业政策缺陷带来的不足,规避“结构负利”的出现。     

房地产业与国民经济增长的实证研究

采用1978-2002年的数据,利用计量经济学中的协整检验以及格兰杰因果检验模型,对房地产业与国民经济增长之间的协整关系和因果关系分别进行检验,结果表明,两者之间并不存在长期稳定的关系;取滞后期1-3时,两者互为因果关系。     

What drives the capital flows into BRICS economies?

Understanding what drives the capital flows has important policy implications for countries in managing the direction and magnitude of such flows. This paper empirically investigates the main drivers of capital flows into the fast‐growing BRICS countries, in the backdrop of their growing inward capital flows. Employing a fully balanced panel for the period 1995–2015, we focus on, among others, the hitherto commonly untested variables: sovereign credit ratings, economic freedom and ease of doing business ranking of these countries. In searching for the relevant interaction and causality among the drivers of capital flows, we employ the panel Granger causality test to arrive at the policy implications. The results suggest that market size is a significant driver of capital flows. In addition to infrastructure, economic freedom in the host countries, ease of doing business ranking and sovereign credit ratings are the main drivers in the long‐run growth of capital flows.