Foreign trade and economic growth: time series evidence from Latin America

This paper extends our understanding of the relationship between trade and growth by emphasizing time series evidence rather than the more traditional aggregate cross-section evidence from past studies. Cross-section studies obscure intercountry differences and sacrifice revealing information about dynamic behaviors within countries. Also, the nonstationary nature of many time series makes the use of period averages inappropriate. The use of time series data introduces other difficulties, however, and our analysis pays close attention to the possibility of spurious regressions, nonstationarity and cointegrating relationships among variables. Seventeen Latin American economies are examined, and a mixture of model forms must be applied to deal with the variety of temporal behaviors. The results confirm a positive relationship between export growth and aggregate economic growth over time for the majority of the seventeen countries.     

Capital controls,capital flows and external crises: evidence from India

Despite the widespread use of capital controls, India has experienced several balance of payments crises. This paper examines the solvency and sustainability of India's external imbalances and analyses the optimality of its capital flows. We use two approaches: an intertemporal model of the current account that allows for capital controls, and a composite model of macroeconomic indicators that yields probabilities of future balance of payments crises. The results indicate that India's intertemporal budget constraint is satisfied and that the path of its current account imbalances is sustainable, with some support for the optimality (given capital controls) of its external borrowing.     

Causality nexus of exports,FDI and economic growth of the ASEAN5 economies: evidence from panel data analysis

This paper analyzes the causal relationships between exports, FDI and economic growth among the ASEAN5 countries. We have used a three-stage procedure based on unit root, co-integration and causality tests applied to the panel data from 1981 to 2013. The results reveal that there is a bi-directional causal relationship between FDI and growth in the long run, while there is a unidirectional causal relationship from FDI to exports in the short run. Our results also confirm that the export-led growth (ELG) and FDI-led growth hypotheses hold true in the long and short run. To reinforce the FDI inflows, authorities should continue the progressive reduction of barriers, and increase the sophistication of quality exports to compete in the global market. This paper is the first of its kind to analyze the role of both FDI and exports in the ASEAN5 economies using panel analysis.     

Entrepreneurship,economic development,and institutional environment: evidence from OECD countries

The purpose of this article is to establish a typology of entrepreneurship for OECD countries over the 1999–2012 period. Our aim is to draw a distinction between managerial and entrepreneurial economies, to identify groups of countries with similar economic and entrepreneurial activity variables, and to determine the economic and institutional drivers of entrepreneurial activities in each group. We show that the level of development, sectoral specialization, and institutional variables related to entrepreneurship, functioning of the labor market, and openness of the country are decisive to understand differences in entrepreneurship activity across countries. Results show that the pre-crisis period, from 1999 to 2008, is a period of growth favorable to entrepreneurship. The financial crisis involved a break in entrepreneurial dynamism, with agricultural economies withstanding the financial crisis better. The 2010–2012 period of recovery is a period of a sharp slowdown in entrepreneurial activity, during which the countries that are less dependent on the financial sector proved to be the most resilient in terms of entrepreneurial activity. Nevertheless, it is the advanced knowledge economies with developed financial markets, fewer institutional regulatory constraints, and greater scope for qualitative entrepreneurship that show lower unemployment rates. These findings have important implications for the implementation of public policy in order to promote entrepreneurial activity and reduce unemployment.     

Age and firm growth: evidence from three European countries

This article provides new insights into the dependence of firm growth on age along the entire distribution of growth rates, and conditional on survival. Using data from the European firms in a global economy survey, and adopting a quantile regression approach, we uncover evidence for a sample of French, Italian and Spanish manufacturing firms with more than ten employees in the period from 2001 to 2008. We find that: (1) young firms grow faster than old firms, especially in the highest growth quantiles; (2) young firms face the same probability of declining as their older counterparts; (3) results are robust to the inclusion of other firms’ characteristics such as labor productivity, capital intensity and the financial structure; (4) high growth is associated with younger chief executive officers and other attributes that capture the attitude of the firm toward growth and change. The effect of age on firm growth is rather similar across countries.     

Stock market development and economic growth: Evidence from seven sub-Sahara African countries

The paper examines the long run and causal relationship between stock market development and economic growth for seven countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test, the study finds that the stock market development is cointegrated with economic growth in Egypt and South Africa. Moreover, this test suggests that stock market development has a significant positive long run impact on economic growth. Granger causality test based on vector error correction model (VECM) further shows that stock market development Granger causes economic growth in Egypt and South Africa. However, Granger causality in the context of VAR shows evidence of bidirectional relationship between stock market development and economic growth for Cote D’Ivoire, Kenya, Morocco and Zimbabwe. In Nigeria, there is a weak evidence of growth-led finance using market size as indicator of stock market development. Based on these results, the paper argues that stock markets could help promote growth in Africa. However, to achieve this goal, African stock markets need to be further developed through appropriate regulatory and macroeconomic policies.     

Foreign indebtedness and economic growth: The Philippines

Problems of indebtedness in developing countries are not isolated occurrences. The example of the Philippines, however, is for many reasons a most interesting one. On the one hand, borrowing already once culminated in a debt crisis at the end of the 60s. On the other, the Philippine foreign debt situation has deteriorated faster than that of other highly-indebted countries recently. This article sets out to analyse Philippine borrowing by using an econometric model against the background of the economic policies actually pursued. What are the prospects for the Philippines during the 80s?     

Entrepreneurial types and economic growth

Most literature on economic growth focuses on expenditure in research and development (R&D) because of its ability to produce technological change. Models based on this principle, however, fail to account for the exceptional growth exhibited in recent year by country such as China where R&D expenditure is virtually non-existing and for the lack of growth observed in countries such as Japan where R&D expenditure is significant. We propose a model in which entrepreneurs may be research-based (those incurring R&D expenditure) or imitators (those not incurring R&D expenditure) and show that, when the returns to R&D expenditure are low, such as in many emerging economies, the presence of a high number of imitative entrepreneurs who increase competition and product supply is sufficient to generate economic growth regardless of the distribution of activity between research-based and imitative and in spite of low R&D expenditure.     

关于财政分权与经济增长的研究

许多发展中国家在上世纪90年代陆续开展了财政分权理论与实证研究,由于财政分权已成为财政体制改革的关键措施,特别是实行经济体制改革的国家,多数都想依靠财政分权来促进本国经济增长,中国进行的经济体制改革也体现了财政分权的过程.本文从财政分权和经济增长的涵义入手,通过分析两者的作用机理,对财政分权与经济增长的关系进行了简要阐述.     

Federal policy and economic growth

I am quite concerned about the high and rising levels of federal debt we will have in the long term unless our policies are changed. But as I look out to the next several years, I am much more worried about the prospect of sharp cuts in federal spending that would be damaging to the country’s long-term growth prospects. We are on track to significantly cut federal investment in infrastructure relative to the historical pattern, and this would be a terrible mistake. There is no evidence that this administration’s policies will lead to faster economic growth, on balance, and setting expectations of 3 or 4% growth does not advance the national discussion. As we make changes in government policies, we should give distributional concerns significant weight. If we continue to support policies that are good for the economy as a whole but bad for lower- or middle-income people, we need to step up with practical policies to compensate those people for their losses.     

Openness and growth: an interpretation of empirical evidence from East Asian countries

This study investigates the effect of openness on economic growth for rapidly growing economies in East Asia in which rapid growth has been accompanied by a persistent openness to world trade. The framework of analysis is a five-variable vector autoregressive model that consists of real output, money supply, real government spending, foreign price shocks, and openness measures. The results do not strongly support the 'new' growth theories in which increasing openness affects long-run growth. For most countries in the sample, fiscal policy shocks as well as foreign price shocks have greater impacts on economic growth than does the openness shock. The results are generally consistent with the view that the role of the government is critical for growth among the East Asian economies.     

志怀 远见 重构经济增长的秩序

2020年是复杂的、模糊的,它将是一系列变量综合影响的结果,是好是坏,不得而知。2020年又是清晰可见的,它是目标清晰、路径清晰、办法清晰的中华民族伟大复兴征程中的一个划时代节点,承前启后,别无选择。2019年12月20日,第十二届《浙商》年会在杭州国际会议中心举行。本届年会由浙江日报报业集团、浙商发展研究院(浙商智库)指导,《浙商》杂志、世界浙商网主办,以“志怀与远见”为主题,深入分析全球热点,全面展望崭新趋势,为浙商创新求变赋能,为民营经济新一轮发展增添信心、力量和智慧。     

Trade structure and economic growth

Abstract

How do the number of trade partners and the concentration of trade among partners affect the economic growth of a country? We refer to these characteristics as the structure of trade, and explore this question empirically in this study. We find that the structure of trade, independently of the level of trade itself, has an important effect on the rate of economic growth. The results of the study suggest that the number of trading partners is positively correlated with growth across all countries, and this effect is more pronounced for rich countries. Trade concentration is positively correlated with growth for all countries, and the effect is concentrated in poor countries. Previous work has overlooked these characteristics of trade, although we find them to be quite relevant and that they could lead to new ways of understanding the trade – growth relationship.     

Population growth,human capital expenditures and economic growth: a macroeconometric analysis

"The paper presents an econometrically estimated model where economic and demographic variables are determined simultaneously. It is used to quantify the importance of human capital expenditures in socioeconomic and demographic development as well as analyze the effects of rapid population growth on human capital expenditures. The simulation results indicate that human capital expenditures are important determinants of economic development, have appreciable negative effects on both fertility and infant mortality, hence, have negligible net effects on population in human capital expenditures per capita which implies a deteriorating quality of human capital."     

Innovation and employment growth in industrial clusters: evidence from aeronautical firms in Germany

This article investigates the impact of various agglomeration forces on employment and innovation for a sample of aeronautical cluster firms in Northern Germany and a control group of geographically dispersed aeronautical firms in other German regions. The findings suggest that employment growth is positively affected by labor market pooling but this effect is not cluster‐specific. The firms' probability of innovating is positively influenced by knowledge flows from proximate scientific institutions and public information sources as well as demanding local customers. However, only the effect of demanding customers is cluster‐specific.     

Creative destruction and regional productivity growth: evidence from the Dutch manufacturing and services industries

Do firm entry and exit improve the competitiveness of regions? If so, is this a universal mechanism or is it contingent on the type of industry or region in which creative destruction takes place? This paper analyses the effect of firm entry and exit on the competitiveness of regions, as measured by total factor productivity (TFP) growth. Based on a study across 40 regions in the Netherlands over the period 1988–2002, we find that firm entry is related to productivity growth in services, but not in manufacturing. The positive impact found in services does not necessarily imply that new firms are more efficient than incumbent firms; high degrees of creative destruction may also improve the efficiency of incumbent firms. We also find that the impact of firm dynamics on regional productivity in services is higher in regions exhibiting diverse but related economic activities.     

Inflation and economic growth in LDCs

Economists find it difficult to reach agreement about the effects on economic growth of depreciation of the money value. One reason is that they define certain terms in different ways, another one is that many other factors as well as inflation have an impact on economic growth. They may intensify or compensate for positive and negative relations between inflation and economic growth.     

我国对外贸易与经济增长浅析

作为一个加入WTO的发展中大国,国际贸易对我国经济增长的影响和作用日益凸显,也成为国人关注的热点议题.大力开展国际贸易,对任何国家的国民经济发展都十分重要.针对我国国际贸易与经济增长相关关系这一内容,国内外学者作了大量研究,得出了各自不同的结论,但就二者之间存在着怎样的数量关系没做详细的分类情况的探讨.     

Relationship between tourism and economic growth

The main goal of this paper is to determine whether tourism activity stimulates economic growth. The study indicates the main variables affecting tourism activity and shows a feedback effect between income and tourism. Findings indicate that tourism not only supplies necessary funds to finance firms' activities, but also stimulates the local firms' productivity and creates new job opportunities that increase the country's welfare. Variables that have important effects on tourism activity, such as entrepreneurship and prices have also been considered.