经济全球化条件下中国城市化的一个思路

加入WTO意味着中国经济进一步地融入了全球化的进程之中，这对中国的城市化也同样意味着机遇与挑战的并存，当前，世界城市发展的两个基础旭全球城市化和城市全球化。随着全球科技信息和经济一体化的突飞猛进，城市不仅在全球活动和地方事务中的地位更加重要，而且城市之间的竞争也更趋激烈。而我国目前的城市化水平仅为30％左右，不仅远远低于本国的工业化水平（大约低50％左右），而且比同等发展水平国家的城市化平均水平也低近20％。我国低水平的城市化，城市化滞后于工业化的事实对经济增长的瓶颈制约作用随买方市场的到来，通货紧缩的出现而日益彰显，因此，适应当前全球经济一体化的趋势，中国城市化进程珠加速进行将势不可挡。而我们关心的是，考虑到我国城市化发展的历史起点、现实进程，顺应当前世界经济一体化、信息化和城市发展的趋势，我国城市化的发展思路应如何取向的问题。     

城市化与税收征管浅析

5000年的城市发展史表明：城市的形成和发展是生产力发展、社会分工以及生产关系变革的结果。特别是到了近代，工业化成为城市化的主要推动力，城市化与工业化、现代化相互促进、相互推动。目前世界城市化平均水平已达50％，其中发达国家城市化水平为75％，发展中国家城市化水平为40％。国际城市发展的经验表明，在工业化由初期向中期迈进的中速时期，城市化速率将高于工业化的速率。如，日本1947年到1975年工业化水平从28％提高到36％，而同期城市化水平从28％提到高75％，韩国1960年到1981年工业化水平从20％提高到39％，同期城市化水平则从28％提高到56％。国际经验还表明，当一个国家或地区的人均国内生产总值达到1000美元、城市化水平达到30％时，将进入城市快速发展阶段。     

长江经济带城市化发展水平综合评价——以长江经济带6个中心城市为例

城市化是人口、经济、空间、社会及生态等多种因素合发展的过程,而长江经济带横跨我国东中西部三大地带,是我国空间开发战略中的一条重要轴线,该区域的城市化水平是长江经济带发展的主体内容。依据城市化水平指标体系的综合性、客观性、可得性的原则,从人口城市化、生态城市化、经济城市化和社会城市化四个方面,运用熵值法,对成都和重庆、武汉和长沙以及南京和杭州这是三对长江上中下游中心城市的城市化水平进行综合评价和比较。     

金融支持城市化的路径

对于城市化这一随着工业化进程和国民经济发展而产生的经济现象,作为经济核心的金融必然对其有着重要影响。金融通过促进农业产业化、支持城市基础设施建设和中小企业发展等影响着城市化进程。2011年甘肃省城市化率仅为37.15%,而东部沿海发达省份城市化率普遍超过54%,有些甚至在60%以上,甘肃的城市化水平与发达省份     

城市化进程中的要素集聚、产业集群和城市群发展

城市化的基本特征即要素集聚,聚集经济是城市化的基本动力,产业集群有利于提升城市竞争力从而促进城市化,城市群的发展是城市化达到一定阶段的必然产物.在不同的经济发展和城市化水平上,要素集聚、产业集群和城市群分别起主要作用.我国地域辽阔,地区间经济发展和城市化水平存在较大差距,因此,加速我国的城市化进程,需要同时发挥城市聚集经济、产业集群和城市群的作用.     

我国水产品消费与城市化进程的相关分析

一、问题的提出 城市化是农村人口向城市人15转移和聚集的现象，包括城市人口和城市数量的增加及城市经济社会化、现代化和集约化程度的提高（何念如，2006）。城市化过程体现了人均收入水平的提高，也体现了人15转移过程中生产和生活方式的改变。随着我国城市化进程的推进，全国居民消费水平逐步提高，居民的消费结构发生了明显变化，食物内部的消费结构产生巨大的差异，     

城市化进程与农民失地

城市化是人类的生产和生活活动随着社会生产力的发展由农村向城市不断转移以及城市空间不断扩大的过程。库兹涅茨在其《现代经济增长》一书中把城市化定义为。城市和乡村之间人口分布方式的变化，即城市化的过程”。因此，土地非农化，农民市民化就成为了城市化进程中的必然产物。在这一进     

浅析中国城市化进程的途径和存在的瓶颈问题

中国城市化道路的途径存在很多争议,本文从城市化道路的动力机制、城乡关系和城市发展方针三个方面阐述了对中国城市化道路选择的一些思考,并且分析了户籍制度和城乡二元经济结构对城市化的影响。     

基于经济学视角的中国城市化路径与城市规模分析

随着我国城市化进程的不断加快，城市规模出现了一些问题，如城区土地资源减少、城乡差距加大等。为了构建社会主义和谐社会，必须对城市化路径及规模进行规划，以利用有限的城市资源建设合理的城市群。文章分析城市化的基本概念，从经济学视角看待城市化的发展和城市规模，提出相应的城市化路径和城市规模的优化策略，以期进一步推进城市化进程，减少社会矛盾。     

城市化经济运行中的金融经济力分析

近年来,城市化进程发展趋势下衍生出大量新词汇,其中城市化经济作为城市与城市化的结合,它是社会生产力发展到一定阶段的产物,也是工业化革命的必然结果。而城市化经济运行的关键在于资金的支持。因此金融经济力发展状况直接决定城市化经济运行效果。金融经济力形成建立在特定条件基础之上,受到诸多因素的影响,会形成特定的形态,继而从不同角度为城市化经济持续运行奠定坚实的经济基础。文章从城市化经济、金融经济力定义入手,分析金融经济力对城市化经济运行产生的影响,最后从多个角度探讨如何发挥金融经济力,促进城市化经济运行的相关建议及措施。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.