REVISED REAL CANADIAN GNP ESTIMATES AND CANADIAN ECONOMIC GROWTH, 1870–1926

Revised Canadian real GNP estimates for the 1870–1926 period, based on the nominal GNP estimates constructed by M. C. Urquhart and on a variety of sector-specific price indexes, are presented below. The construction of this revised real GNP series allows for the creation of real output estimates for the major sectors of the Canadian economy as well as for a new implicit price index series. These revised estimates cast new light on our present understanding of Canadian economic growth and reinforce the view that the Canadian wheat boom probably played an important and positive role in the process of Canadian economic development.     

THE FINANCIAL BEHAVIOUR OF CANADIAN PRIVATE CORPORATIONS AND GOVERNMENT ENTERPRISE: A FLOW OF FUNDS ANALYSIS

This paper examines and compares the portfolio behaviour of Canadian non-financial government and private enterprises. The greatest difference observed is the relatively small size and yet more active management of the government enterprise asset portfolio. In comparing our model of the private Canadian corporate sector with that of the US, we find the main difference to be a Canadian preference for borrowing rather than equity issue. This preference almost certainly reflects the high level of foreign ownership of Canadian resident corporations.     

Common trends and common cycles in Canada: who knew so much has been going on?

Abstract.  It is generally accepted that convergence is well established for Canadian regional outputs. Another prevalent belief is that the Canadian regions respond symmetrically to the same aggregate shocks. A common trends / common cycles decomposition of Canadian regional outputs casts doubt on the convergence hypothesis and reveals trend shocks dominate fluctuations in Ontario, Quebec, and the Maritimes in the short and long run, but not in British Columbia and the Prairies. Thus, Canadian regional output fluctuations are driven by an asymmetric and economically important set of disaggregate propagation and growth mechanisms. Our results point to a new Canadian macroeconomic research agenda. JEL classification: C32, E32, O47     

CHANGES IN CANADIAN FAMILY INCOME AND FAMILY CONSUMPTION INEQUALITY BETWEEN 1978 AND 1992

This paper uses Canadian cross-sectional income and expenditure data to examine changes in the distribution of family income and family consumption during the period 1978 to 1992. Family consumption data are analyzed because in the presence of intertemporal consumption smoothing, the cross-sectional distribution of consumption may characterize the distribution of lifetime wealth. I find that both Canadian family income inequality and Canadian family consumption inequality moved countercyclically. In addition, both Canadian family income inequality and Canadian family consumption inequality trended upward over the period; however, the change in family consumption inequality was much smaller than the change in family income inequality, suggesting that inequality in the distribution of lifetime wealth may have changed much less than is suggested by changes in the distribution of income.     

Infrastructure investment and Canadian manufacturing productivity

This paper examines the relationship between Canadian public infrastructure and private output using a Constant Elasticity and Substitution-Translog (CES-TL) cost model to describe the interaction of the public and private sectors.

We find public capital a substitute for private capital within the Canadian manufacturing sector. Additionally, the services of public capital enhance the productivity of private capital. Canadian manufacturing costs are characterized by economies of scale, indicating that less than optimal plant sizes dominated Canadian manufacturing sector during the study period. Advances in disembodied technical progress are also indicated.     

The Dynamics of Tariff Retaliation Between the United States and Canada: Theory and Evidence

This paper presents theory and empirical evidence showing a retaliatory pattern in US–Canadian tariff interactions in the period 1868–1970, whereby the changes in the tariff level of each country are Granger-caused by the other. In the long run, the USA maintains the tariff changes that it initiates while the Canadian policy tends to back away from changes that it initiates. Furthermore, Canadian policy demonstrates a permanent change following US innovations, while in the long run the US tariff returns to its own internal equilibrium unaffected by innovations in the Canadian tariff.     

Firm survival and exit in response to trade liberalization

Abstract.  This paper considers the implications of changing trade barriers for the survival of Canadian manufacturing firms. The findings suggest that Canadian tariff reductions decreased the probability of survival for Canadian firms while declines in American tariffs increased that probability. Combining these effects, two‐thirds of Canadian manufacturing firms saw their probability of survival increase as a result of the tariff reductions mandated by the Canada‐US Free Trade Agreement. However, the vulnerability of a firm to failure as a result of trade liberalization was mitigated by the characteristics of that firm, particularly scale and leverage. JEL classification: F1, L1     

Asset pricing theory and the valuation of Canadian paintings

Abstract.  The valuation of Canadian paintings is analysed empirically. Using a sample of auction prices for major Canadian painters for the period 1968–2001, we run hedonic regressions to analyse the influence of various factors, including painter identity, on auction prices, as well as to construct a market price index. This index is used in a second‐stage analysis in which we analyse the properties of Canadian art viewed as an investment asset. We apply standard asset pricing theory, as incorporated in the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), to the analysis of price movements in the market for Canadian paintings.     

The visible minority earnings gap across generations of Canadians

Abstract To what extent the earnings gaps facing Canada’s visible minorities reflect discrimination is a question of tremendous policy interest. This paper argues that failing to account for the limited Canadian ancestry of visible minorities overestimates discrimination if immigrant assimilation is an intergenerational process. Using the 2001 and 2006 Canadian Censuses, weekly earnings, conditional on a rich set of worker and job characteristics, are compared with child immigrant, second‐, and third‐and‐higher‐generation Canadian men. The results reveal a tendency for earnings to increase across subsequent generations of visible minority, but not white, men. Though the pattern is strongest between the first and second generation, for black men it is also evident between the Canadian born with and without a Canadian‐born parent. Despite this progress, for most visible minority groups earnings gaps are identified even among third‐and‐higher‐generation Canadians.     

Economic research in Canada: Evolution and convergence

We describe the history and current state of economic research in Canada, including the role of the Canadian Economics Association (CEA) and other institutions. Our paper is organized around two central questions. Is Canadian economic research distinctive? And should it be more distinctive? We argue that a distinct Canadian “school” of economics existed in the past, but that economic research in Canada has converged on an evolving global standard in both method and topics. We ask whether this convergence serves the Canadian public interest and we raise some questions about the future of the CEA and its flagship journal, the CJE.     

Banks’ non-traditional activities under regulatory changes: impact on risk,performance and capital adequacy

Using the big six Canadian chartered banks quarterly financial statements and daily stock market data from 1982 to 2018, we examine the impact of non-interest income on Canadian banks’ risk, performance and capital under the different major regulatory changes made to the Bank Act of Canada. Our results show that Canadian banks’ expansion into non-traditional activities had slightly decreased their risks and significantly improved their performance benefitting from income diversification. Moreover, while adhering to capital adequacy regulation, reshuffling banks’ portfolio towards non-traditional activities did not reduce Canadian banks’ capital ratio. In spite of the re-regulation towards universal banking against ring-fencing, this feature buttresses the effectiveness of capital adequacy regulation in Canada in linking banks capital allocation with their risk taking.     

Back to the futures: An assessment of market performance on the early Winnipeg Grain Exchange

In this paper, I offer a quantitatively rich, historical perspective with which to consider Western Canada's recent return to private grain marketing. I assess how futures markets on the Winnipeg Grain Exchange (WGE) performed before the Canadian Wheat Board, and I consider the extent to which this performance contributed to the Canadian government's decision to create the Board. I conclude, despite significant agrarian dissatisfaction with private grain marketing on the WGE, the Canadian government ultimately proscribed futures trading because it was incompatible with the CWB model, which the Canadian government needed in order to stabilize farm incomes, particularly in the aftermath of the Great Depression.     

The impressive contribution of Canadian economists to fiscal federalism theory and policy

The study of fiscal federalism has been central to the research of Canadian economists since the Rowell–Sirois Report. To mark the 50th anniversary of the founding of the Canadian Economics Association, it is fitting to take stock of their contributions. We focus on the period since 1982 and emphasize the main scholarly publications of an inclusive array of Canadian economists and economists in Canadian universities. Our attention is devoted to applications in the context of federal and provincial governments, setting aside related issues in municipal government finance. We briefly discuss instances where the fiscal federalism literature has informed policy debates including through policy research institutes, government commissions and international organizations.     

Does confidence data help forecast business cycles? New evidence from Canada

This paper assesses the contribution of confidence – or sentiment – data for predicting Canadian economic slowdowns. A probit framework is applied to an indicator of the status of the Canadian business cycle produced by the OECD. Explanatory variables include all available Canadian data on sentiment (from four distinct surveys) as well as macroeconomic and financial data. Sentiment data are introduced either as individual variables, as simple averages (such as confidence indices) and as confidence factors extracted from larger datasets containing all available sentiment data. Results indicate that the full potential of confidence data for forecasting Canadian business cycles obtains when factor models are used and all confidence data are utilized.     

Oil and US stock market shocks: Implications for Canadian equities

Oil and US stock market shocks are relevant to Canadian equities because Canada is an oil exporter exposed to market developments in the wider continent. We evaluate how the relationship between Canadian stock market indices and such external shocks change under extraordinary events. To do this, we subject statistically identified oil and S&P 500 market shocks to a surprise filter, which detects shocks with the greatest magnitude occurring over a given lookback period, and an outlier filter, which detects extrema shocks that exceed a normal range. Then, we examine how the dependence structure between shocks and Canadian equities change under the extreme surprise and outlier episodes through various co-moment spillover tests. Our results show co-moments beyond correlation are important in reflecting the changes occurring in the relationships between external shocks and Canadian equities in extreme events. Additionally, the differences in findings under extreme positive and negative shocks provide evidence for asymmetric spillover effects from the oil and US stock markets to Canadian equities. Moreover, the observed heterogeneity in the relationships between disaggregated Canadian equities and shocks in the crude oil and S&P 500 markets are useful to policy-makers for revealing sector-specific vulnerabilities and provide portfolio diversification opportunities for investors to exploit.     

Firm Dynamics in Retail Trade: The Response of Canadian Retailers to Exchange Rate Shocks

We use comprehensive firm‐level data to estimate the responses of heterogeneous Canadian retail firms to real exchange rate movements. Our analysis focuses on a period characterized by large fluctuations in the Canadian dollar, providing an opportunity to quantify both intensive and extensive margin responses in retail industries to real exchange rate shocks and to examine how those responses differ across firms, locations, and sub‐industries. Our results indicate that a real Canadian currency appreciation significantly reduces a retailer's sales, employment, and profits. The strength of this negative effect is decreasing in the distance of a retailer from the US‐Canada border. We do not find evidence of a strong relationship between real exchange rate movements and the number of operating firms nor the probability of firm survival. These findings are consistent with the view that a real Canadian dollar appreciation increases cross‐border shopping by Canadians, resulting in a negative demand shock for Canadian retailers, and the dominant response by firms to such a shock is through the intensive margin.     

Economics research in Canada: a long-run assessment of journal publications

Abstract.  We examine the publications of authors affiliated with an economics research institution in Canada in (1) the Top-10 journals in economics according to journals' impact factors, and (2) the Canadian Journal of Economics . We consider all publications in the even years from 1980 to 2000. Canadian economists contributed about 5% of publications in the Top-10 journals and about 55% of publications in the Canadian Journal of Economics over this period. We identify the most active research centres and identify trends in their relative outputs over time. Those research centres successful in publishing in the Top-10 journals are found to also dominate the Canadian Journal of Economics . Additionally, we check the robustness of our findings with respect to journal selection, and we present data on authors' PhD origin, thereby indicating output and its concentration in graduate education.     

COSTS AND BENEFITS OF EXCHANGE RATE STABILITY: CANADA'S INTERWAR EXPERIENCE

In January 1929, the Canadian government suspended gold exports and implemented a floating exchange rate regime that endured until the onset of World War II. In sharp contrast to the experience of other countries that left the gold standard, Canada's deflation and declining economic activity continued until 1933. This paper examines why the Canadian government chose to follow a restrictive monetary policy and how that policy affected the Canadian exchange rate. We show that the chosen policy was rational—given the government's assumptions and objectives—and that it was consistent with fiscal policy. In so doing, we argue that the government's commitment to monetary stability was credible. We show that one can explain the Canadian exchange rate's behavior by a simple expectations-based model of exchange rate determination, given external events and the government's monetary policy.     

Dynamic price dependence of Canadian and international art markets: an empirical analysis

Although the market for Canadian paintings is now of substantial magnitude, with several works having recently been sold for well over a million dollars, it remains true that with very few exceptions, the works of Canadian painters are bought and sold only in Canada and seem to be held only by Canadian collectors. This market can thus be viewed as largely local, and it is therefore not clear whether there should be any linkage between price movements for Canadian art and those for the mainstream international market in old master, impressionist, and modern art. This article investigates the presence and nature of such time series dependence econometrically, both in terms of long-term trends as reflected in the co-integrating relationship between Canadian and the international market, and in terms of short-run co-movements as represented in correlations. The possibility that the local market ??follows?? the international one is also considered through an analysis of Granger causality. For Canadian art prices, we use a new hedonic index that has been computed using an updated version of the dataset of Hodgson and Vorkink (Can J Econ 37:629?C655, 2004), while for the international prices, we use an index provided by Mei and Moses (Am Econ Rev 92:1656?C1668, 2002).     

Assimilation of Hong Kong Immigrants in Canada

A flood of emigration from Hong Kong to Canada was observed prior to the handover from Britain back to China in 1997. I pool Canadian Census data from 1991 to 2006 to study the labour market assimilation of Hong Kong immigrants. The findings suggest that these immigrants faced a significant negative wage gap upon entry in comparison with Canadian‐born individuals, and this was larger for cohorts arriving closer to 1997, suggesting a decline in cohort quality. The results also indicate that earnings convergence with the Canadian‐born was slow for the majority of these immigrants.