国债偿还高峰期的对策选择

开拓财政信用、多渠道筹集资金,无疑是社会主义初级阶段解决资金需求与供应矛盾的重要途径。1979年我国政府开始向国外举债,1981年又开始对内发行国库券。内外举债固然是由于认识到举债在建设方面的经济意义,也是对国家财政信用的认识和开发。但我们的举债毕竟又存在受迫于国家财政收支矛盾压力的一方面因素。近十年的财政赤字、除依银行透支外,就得靠举债来弥补了。可以说我国的举债几乎与改革同时起步,又与国家财政的收支矛盾相呼应。正是基于这一点,我认为在90年代的债务高峰期,必须考虑到债务的偿还对我国财政金融形势与国民经济的影响。     

对我国国债风险的认识及防范

近年来,国债在经济发展中所起的作用越来越大。随着我国国债规模的急剧扩张,对国债风险的防范已十分紧迫。为此建议:加快财政分配体制的改革进度,改善收入状况;优化国债结构,减轻还债压力;适度控制国债的发行规模;减少隐性债务,降低国债风险;加强国债运行的规范化。     

简析我国国债政策的取向

一、目前我国国债规模分析 国债是国家为筹集资金而依法发行的有价证券。一个国家国债规模是否适当，一般从一个国家国债的认购能力和国债的偿债能力两方面来衡量。反映的指标体系一般有国债负担率、居民的应债能力、金融机构的承受能力和国债偿债率、国债依存度等。尽管这两个方面分析的角度不同，反映的指标也有所不同，但都可以用来说明国债规模问题。     

浅析美国国债困境对我国国债规模的启示

日前,美国的债务危机虽然得到了短暂的平息,但是其潜在风险却丝毫未减少。中国作为美国国债最大的持有者,其风险水平可想而知。本文从国际通用的国债衡量指标来分析我国当前国债规模概况,并以美国国债危机的成因和结果探讨中国的债务隐患,最后提出由上述结论得到的启示。     

浅析美国国债困境对我国国债规模的启示

日前,美国的债务危机虽然得到了短暂的平息,但是其潜在风险却丝毫未减少。中国作为美国国债最大的持有者,其风险水平可想而知。本文从国际通用的国债衡量指标来分析我国当前国债规模概况,并以美国国债危机的成因和结果探讨中国的债务隐患,最后提出由上述结论得到的启示。     

国债投资分析与选择

在目前股票市场风云莫测而又缺少其他投资工具的情况下,国债作为安全性高、流动性强的投资工具而广受青睐。自2003年下半年以来,受人民银行提高法定存款准备金率、升息等紧缩银根政策的影响,国债价格一路走低,2004年国债指数由2003年8月的101点跌至91点,跌幅最大的2002国债(13)目前只有77元。尤其是自2002年以来,投资者在一级市场购入任何一种国债并持有至今,绝大部分的持有期收益率均为负值。所以,国债也使投资者蒙受了巨大损失。目前,交易所上市的二级市场国债,大部分的到期收益率均高于同期银行存款,因此国债投资又是银行存款较为理想的…     

我国国债债务风险及其防范

国际上用来衡量国债债务风险的指标有多种，从与经济、财政的关联度来看，主要有四个：国债负担率、国债应债率、国债依存度、国债偿债率。前两个是经济指标，后两个是财政指标。     

对我国显性国债规模及风险的认识和分析

国债风险可归纳为数量风险、金融风险和使用风险。通过分析,建议从数量的确定、偿还期限的安排、运行的规范化、国债资金使用的监督等方面来防范我国的国债风险。     

国债可持续发展的实现:一个综合分析框架

判断我国国债规模的风险应更多的从国债可持续发展的角度出发.本文构建了一个国债可持续发展的简单动态分析框架,同时运用该分析框架对我国国债可持续发展进行了实证分析,并得出了相关结论及政策启示.     

论我国财政风险与国债政策的可持续性

长期的计划财政积累了我国财政支付的风险 ,集中表现为赤字和膨胀的债务。笔者将在本文中从我国财政现状出发 ,立论财政风险和国债政策的可持续性正相关联 ,剖析影响国债政策可持续性的因素 ,并指出舒缓财政风险的有效途径     

国债监督方面的法律问题及对策

市场经济的发展离不开法律的保障。在我国，创造一个完善的国债监督法律环境，将对国债市场的进一步发展起重要的作用。本文分析了国债监督方面的法律现状以及目前在这一领域中存在的问题，并就国债监督的法律问题提出了设想与建议。     

Beyond the Optimistic Curse: A New Multiscenario Approach to Debt Sustainability Assessment

While a careful and accurate debt sustainability assessment (DSA) is crucial for an efficient macroeconomic management, the most widely used framework introduced by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) suffers from several drawbacks that render its results overoptimistic and misleading. In this article, we correct the methodology by demonstrating how policy makers can develop country-specific “intermediate” forecasts of the determinants of debt dynamics, in addition to coherent “optimistic” and “pessimistic” scenarios. Our application to the case of Egypt illustrates that the debt-to-GDP ratio could increase to more than 100 percent by 2015, in contrast with the 61 percent projected by the IMF in 2010.     

Sovereign Debt Crises in Latin America: A Market Pressure Approach

ABSTRACT

We construct a continuous sovereign debt crisis index for four large Latin American countries for the period 1870?2012. To obtain the optimal set of indicators and the optimal value of the threshold for dating crises we apply the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Our sovereign debt crisis index is a weighted average of three indicators: the debt-to-GDP ratio, the external interest rate spread, and the exports-to-imports ratio. The continuous index allows a more advanced analysis of sovereign debt crises as illustrated with an investigation of the relationship between sovereign debt crises and business cycles in Latin America.     

Liability Valuation and Debt Defeasance: A Cash-Flow Exit-Price (CaFE) Approach

This paper reviews the arguments of Chambers with respect to liability measurement in his continuously contemporary accounting (CoCoA) system and the views of his critics are summarized and discussed. The paper then examines the issue of laibility valuation and in-substance debt defeasance in the context of historic-cost accounting. A specific illustration is provided showing how an in-substance debt-defeasance arrangement would be reported under a CaFE system. It is concluded that stating debt at its exit price would provide useful information and could reduce the incentives for firms to enter into in-substance debt-defeasance arrangements.     

The Determinants of Debt Maturity at Issuance: A System-Based Model

We examine the determinants of corporate debt maturity while taking into account the interdependent relation between maturity and leverage. We do this by estimating a simultaneous-equations model on debt maturity and leverage for a sample of bond-issuing firms. To compare with previous studies, we also estimate a single-equation model on debt maturity using OLS. We define debt maturity as either the maturity of bonds at issuance (incremental approach), or the percentage of a firm's total debt that matures in more than three years (balance-sheet approach). Corroborating the findings of many previous studies, our single-equation OLS results support the underinvestment hypothesis purporting that firms with greater growth opportunities have shorter-term debt. However, under the simultaneous-equations model, the negative relation between a firm's debt maturity and its growth opportunities ceases to hold. Instead, it is the leverage decision that is influenced by growth opportunities. This suggests that existing models may overestimate the effect of growth opportunities on debt maturity.     

The Optimal Redemption Schedule of Serial Municipal Debt: A Dynamic Reconciliation of Revenues,Reinvestment Rates and the Term Structure

The purpose of our research is to developan algorithm that optimally schedules municipaldebt redemptions. It is our hypothesis thatsegmented investor demand, the existing termstructure, the temporal behavior of municipalproject revenues and reinvestment opportunitiesfor interim revenue surpluses are all factorswhich should impact the optimal debt schedulingproblem in a unique and economically meaningfulway. For example, investor preference for shortermaturities and an upward sloping term structureof interest rates should, ceteris paribus,increase the proportion of debt scheduled to berepaid early in the redemption horizon. Ifinvestor demand is limited to a relatively smallgeographic area, such limited demand should bereflected in higher yields. If municipal projectrevenues increase over time then a largerproportion of the debt should be scheduled to beredeemed later. Unfortunately, realisticacknowledgements of the nature of the municipaldebt financing problem create an objectivefunction and a set of constraints which are fartoo complex to yield simple reduced formpresentations of the optimal principalredemptions. Consequently, solutions to theoptimal debt schedule and tests of theconjectures articulated above weresimulated.     

新型城镇化金融支持效率及影响因素研究——甘肃省例证

近年来,伴随我国快速发展的城镇化产生了一些问题亟待解决,粗放的城镇化难以为继,需从速度型向质量型转变。在此过程中投入的大量金融资源支持新型城镇化发展的效率不尽如人意,如何进一步提高效率有待研究。运用DEA-Tobit两阶段分析法,测度甘肃省14个市州新型城镇化金融支持效率,并对其影响因素进行分析。研究认为部分市州新型城镇化金融支持的综合效率逐年下降,主要源于技术效率的下降。金融相关比率和第三产业的发展显著影响金融资源在新型城镇化进程中的配置效率,两者均与金融支持效率呈现正相关关系。应加快转变发展方式,优化金融资源配置,推动产业结构调整,助力城镇化发展进入新的历史阶段。