商业银行授信"受理"环节信息失真问题研究

贷前调查的信息真实度决定贷款的质量.现实的情况是,国内一些商业银行公司治理结构形似神不似,信息传递机制建设滞后,导致在授信"受理"环节监督失控,信息失真,引发信贷风险案件,造成损失.本文以信息经济学为指导,结合博弈论和委托代理理论对此问题进行研究分析,建立了贷前调查监督与被监督、贷前调查与信息真实度的函数关系,确定了客户经理的尽职比例,通过计算给出了确保授信质量所需的高质量客户经理的最低比例公式,推出了贷前调查信息真实度计算公式,为防范信贷风险,解决商业银行授信"受理"环节信息识别能力差、监督被动的问题,提供了定量分析的工具.     

商业银行授信“受理”环节信息失真问题研究

贷前调查的信息真实度决定贷款的质量.现实的情况是,国内一些商业银行公司治理结构形似神不似,信息传递机制建设滞后,导致在授信“受理”环节监督失控,信息失真,引发信贷风险案件,造成损失.本文以信息经济学为指导,结合博弈论和委托代理理论对此问题进行研究分析,建立了贷前调查监督与被监督、贷前调查与信息真实度的函数关系,确定了客户经理的尽职比例,通过计算给出了确保授信质量所需的高质量客户经理的最低比例公式,推出了贷前调查信息真实度计算公式,为防范信贷风险,解决商业银行授信“受理”环节信息识别能力差、监督被动的问题,提供了定量分析的工具.     

浅析中小企业贷前调查研究

中小企业贷前调查是掌握企业真实信息,把握企业有效资产变化规律,为合理确定授信规模、监控企业经营风险的依据和途径.本文根据中小企业的经营特点,从贷前审查的三个方面入手,重点分析贷前审查的十个问题.     

如何加强集团型客户授信风险管理

农发行集团型客户授信业务目前存在着管理模式较为单一、银企信息不对称、贷后管理难以有效落实到位、多头授信和授信过度风险比较普遍以及缺乏有效的风险预警和退出机制等问题．有必要对业务风险管理加以完善。     

关注农户多头贷款 防范过度授信风险

近年来,随着越来越多的银行业金融机构涉足农村金融市场,农户一户多贷的现象逐渐显现。尽管多头贷款在一定程度上满足了农户资金需求,解决了单一机构信贷投放不足的问题,但与此同时也加剧了银行与农户之间信息不对称的矛盾,极易导致过度授信,放大农贷业务风险。     

信息不对称下银行对中小微企业的最优信贷策略研究 ——基于Logistic回归的违约率测算模型

通常认为,中小微企业融资难的主要原因在于抵押担保能力不足、银行贷前及贷后管理成本高.但究其深层次根源,则是在信息不对称情况下,银行难以对中小微企业的违约率进行可靠测算,从而难以估量这部分授信的资本占用,加大了银行自身资本充足率管理的难度.本文利用银行较易获取的企业交易信息(发票信息)、信用评级、信贷记录等有限信息,通过构建Logistic回归的违约率测算模型,测算出不同信用水平下中小微企业的预期违约率.在此基础上,以银行利润最大化为目标,构建银行最优信贷策略的非线性规划模型,并以此模型指导银行对潜在中小微企业客户开展授信活动.     

对银行公司授信档案建设中八大技术问题的探讨

银行公司授信业务实践和收贷法律诉讼活动的现状告诉我们,各家银行在公司授信业务档案建设中,程度不同的存在一些法律要件、要素操作上的技术问题.这不仅涉及银行公司授信业务操作的规范问题,而且关系到银行收贷诉讼活动在法律面前权利主张能否成功的关键所在.……     

如何充分发挥风险管理条线在贷后管理中的作用

贷前、贷中和贷后整个信贷过程的三个管理环节密不可分、相互作用,贯穿于信用风险管理的全过程.单就风险威胁来看,其中任何一个管理环节上的疏漏或缺失,都会给信贷资产安全带来致命的影响.但从信贷业务产品特点上来看,银行作为授信一方,在贷前、贷中环节风险可控性上无疑更具主动性,而在贷后环节上则相对被动.业务实践证明,多数不良贷款的形成往往与贷后管理质量不高、风险应对措施不当直接相关,同时,贷后管理的能力和水平也在很大程度上影响着授信银行在存量客户上的价值再创造.     

银行通力合作 防范过度授信

正近年来,部分地区信用风险释放有加快态势,这与前些年信贷大规模集中投放有关,与一些企业盲目乐观、过度投资有关,与银行业信贷管理体制机制不够完善有关。从微观层面看,与部分企业高财务杠杠有关。在一些地区,企业过度融资、银行过度授信,授信安排中过度依赖担保等问题相互交织,使得信用风险问题更加复杂。从银行自身来看,各家银行都基于自身的内部评级模型对企业评级授信、确定"合理"授信总量。但多家银行的授信     

助贷业务的运作模式、潜在风险和监管演变研究

助贷业务存在客户支持、资金支持和风控支持三种基本模式,其发展建立在"比较优势理论"和"金融功能理论"的基础上,符合经济发展和金融演进的规律,也有助于推动普惠金融发展、改变银行同质化竞争、完善信贷业务模式和风险控制。近年来,助贷业务的经营模式出现了异化走样,违规发放贷款、核心业务外包、违规跨区域经营、信息收集使用不规范、非法暴力催收等问题和风险不断暴露。对此,针对助贷业务的监管政策也在不断出台,涉及助贷机构资质、授信风控、信息保护、逾期催收等多个方面,基本涵盖了贷前、贷中、贷后全过程。未来,助贷业务仍具有较大发展空间,但其健康稳健发展需要市场主体和监管部门之间的良性互动:各业务主体需要进一步恪守助贷实质,加强合规管理,聚焦科技赋能;监管政策需要明确鼓励创新与防范风险并重的监管取向,促进监管政策和责任权限的统一,实现刚性底线和柔性边界的并重。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.