银行资本工具创新的国际经验及其启示

本文基于巴塞尔Ⅲ对资本工具的新要求,总结国际经验,分析中国商业银行资本工具创新的方向。巴塞尔Ⅲ推出后,国际大型银行资本工具创新主要集中于其他一级资本和二级资本,"减记"和"转股"条款设计是创新的主要方向,永续性和派息非累积是其他一级资本工具创新的重点。中国商业银行可创新发行优先股、可减记永续资本债、可转换一级资本工具、可减记次级债券、可减记二级混合资本债券、新可转换债券、二级可转换或有资本债券等新型资本工具,优先选择二级资本工具创新发行,积极探索其他一级资本工具创新发行。     

商业银行永续债发展路径研究

巴塞尔协议Ⅲ重新定义了一级资本、二级资本的合格标准,此后在监管约束与资本消耗的双重推动下,永续债作为创新的资本补充工具成为国际上银行业机构补充资本的重要工具之一。本文梳理了我国商业银行永续债发展现状及国际通用做法,探讨了如何优化永续债发行路径,为完善永续债这一创新资本工具提供参考。     

浅谈商业银行发行二级资本债的现状

在2008年金融危机之后被引入资本市场,受到了国外银行和监管机构的广泛关注。2013年1月1日起实施的《商业银行资本管理办法(试行)》,规定系统重要性银行的资本充足率监管要求为11.5%,对非系统性银行的资本充足率监管要求为10.5%。这个试行办法的实施促使各大商业银行需要创新型的资本工具来提高其资本充足率,这种资本工具就是市场上比较流行的二级资本债。减记二级资本债作为商业银行的应急救助资本,2014年之后开始市场上陆续出现大量的二级资本债。本文应用减记债的主流定价模型之一信用衍生品定价模型,对模型的基本参数进行合理设置,从而得出该减记债的最终定价。通过对根据模型定价出的减记债和市场上由于资金供应形成的价格对比,从而分析该减记债定价的合理与否,给监管者提供一个定量监管商业银行发行二级资本债提供有力的保证。     

商业银行永续债发展创新

2008年国际金融危机发生后,巴塞尔协议m大幅度提高了一级、二级资本的合格标准,确保在商业银行被认定无法生存的情况下能充分地吸收损失。国际商业银行主要对其他一级资本工具和二级资本工具的合同条款进行了修改和创新,创新的主要方向集中在可减记、可转股以及无到期日的资本债券。     

巴塞尔协议Ⅲ的资本监管改革及其影响分析

本文对巴塞尔协议Ⅲ关于资本监管的核心内容及其分阶段实施安排进行归纳,分析了巴塞尔协议Ⅲ所反映出的资本监管新理念,并对巴塞尔协议Ⅲ的资本监管要求与我国监管部门的要求进行比较,最后分析了巴塞尔协议Ⅲ对我国银行业的可能影响,并提出了相关对策建议.     

基于巴塞尔协议Ⅲ内容对我国商业银行资本监管的研究

金融危机后,巴塞尔委员会针对银行机构在金融危机中暴露出来的监管问题,出台了《巴塞尔协议Ⅲ》,以提高资本充足率、建立逆周期缓冲资本、系统重要性银行额外资本等方式加强对银行机构的资本监管。巴塞尔协议Ⅲ的提出使中国银行业面临更高的资本要求,对中国的商业银行甚至是银行系统的发展产生一定的影响。本文论述了巴塞尔协议Ⅲ的核心内容,分析巴塞尔协议Ⅲ对中国银行业产生的影响,并以巴塞尔协议Ⅲ为基础对中国银行机构资本监管做出相应的对策建议。     

基于巴塞尔协议Ⅲ内容对我国商业银行资本监管的研究

金融危机后,巴塞尔委员会针对银行机构在金融危机中暴露出来的监管问题,出台了《巴塞尔协议Ⅲ》,以提高资本充足率、建立逆周期缓冲资本、系统重要性银行额外资本等方式加强对银行机构的资本监管。巴塞尔协议Ⅲ的提出使中国银行业面临更高的资本要求,对中国的商业银行甚至是银行系统的发展产生一定的影响。本文论述了巴塞尔协议Ⅲ的核心内容,分析巴塞尔协议Ⅲ对中国银行业产生的影响,并以巴塞尔协议Ⅲ为基础对中国银行机构资本监管做出相应的对策建议。     

资本工具创新实践与启示

2010年,巴塞尔委员会正式出台巴塞尔资本协议Ⅲ,对商业银行的资本管理提出了更为严格的要求。根据该协议,国际上有关国家和地区制定了各自的资本监管要求。同时,一些银行按照这一协议的要求,探索发行了其他一级资本工具和二级资本工具,对该协议的推动和落实具有良好的引领作用。2012年6月,中国银监会正式发布《商业银行资本管理办法(试行)》(以下简称《办法》),对核心资本工具、其他一级资本工具和二级资本工具的标准进行了明确,从而也为中国银行业资本管理的创新打开了空间。     

巴塞尔协议Ⅲ对我国商业银行发展的影响分析

巴塞尔协议Ⅲ在资本监管、杠杆率指标和流动性监管计量全球标准方面提出了新的要求,虽然我国商业银行的资产负债结构较为简单.但新的监管要求仍然会带来挑战、促进新一轮的金融改革.本文从资本要求、杠杆率要求、流动性要求等角度,分析了巴塞尔协议Ⅲ实施对我同商业银行发展的影响.     

市场风险资本监管演进分析:从巴塞尔协议Ⅰ到Ⅲ

2008年金融危机爆发后,众多欧美大型商业银行因市场风险遭受巨大损失,远远超过按原有监管规则计提的市场风险资本,暴露出原有监管规则的许多缺陷.针对这种情况,巴塞尔银行监管委员会修订了对市场风险监管资本的计量万法,大幅度提高了市场风险资本要求,这也成为巴塞尔协议Ⅲ的重要组成部分.本文梳理了巴塞尔协议Ⅰ到Ⅲ对市场风险资本监管的演进过程,介绍了计量市场风险监管资本的标准法和内部模型法的特点,重点分析了巴塞尔协议Ⅲ下内部模型法的特点.分析表明,由于引入SVaR(压力在险值)的资本要求,按巴塞尔协议Ⅲ计量的市场风险资本要求有显著提高,这将不利于激励商业银行开发内部vaR模型计量市场风险资本要求.     

美元强势仍将延续外汇市场走势分化

2014年主要经济体复苏进程和货币政策分化,下半年以来,国际外汇市场货币走势分化,市场交易量持续上升,波动性加大。文章基于2014年以来国际外汇市场走势及其影响因素的分析,展望国际外汇市场当前分化走势的延续性。     

Resource rents; when to spend and how to save

Countries with substantial revenues from renewable resources face a complex range of revenue management issues. What is the optimal time profile of consumption from the revenue, and how much should be saved? Should saving be invested in foreign funds or in the domestic economy? How does government policy influence the private sector, where sustainable growth in the domestic economy must ultimately be generated? This paper develops the issues in a simple two-period model, and argues that analysis must go well beyond the simple permanent income approach sometimes recommended.     

Knowing what to sell, when, and to whom

Despite an abundance of data, most companies do a poor job of predicting the behavior of their customers. In fact, the authors' research suggests that even companies that take the greatest trouble over their predictions about whether a particular customer will buy a particular product are correct only around 55% of the time--a result that hardly justifies the costs of having a CRM system in the first place. Businesses usually conclude from studies like this that it's impossible to use the past to predict the future, so they revert to the timeworn marketing practice of inundating their customers with offers. But as the authors explain, the reason for the poor predictions is not any basic limitation of CRM systems or the predictive power of past behavior, but rather of the mathematical methods that companies use to interpret the data. The authors have developed a new way of predicting customer behavior, based on the work of the Nobel Prize-winning economist Daniel McFadden, that delivers vastly improved results. Indeed, the methodology increases the odds of successfully predicting a specific purchase by a specific customer at a specific time to about 85%, a number that will have a major impact on any company's marketing ROI. What's more, using this methodology, companies can increase revenues while reducing their frequency of customer contact-evidence that overcommunication with customers may actually damage a company's sales.     

Fintech and access to finance

This article surveys research on the effects of digitalization on access to finance. We focus the review on access through fintech. We review the growth of three main fintech technologies, fintech lending (incl. peer-to-peer lending), crowdfunding and initial coin offerings. We discuss existing evidence on how fintech affects access to finance for firms and investors and consider the regulatory challenges it poses. We incorporate the papers in this special issue, underlining their significant contributions to our understanding of the digitalization of finance and its effects. Finally, we discuss the challenges of research in the digital finance area and propose some new avenues for future research.     

Response to Nelson and Schwartz

In responding to Nelson and Schwartz's [2008. The impact of Milton Friedman on modern monetary economics: setting the record straight on Paul Krugman's “Who was Milton Friedman?”. Journal of Monetary Economics 55, this issue] critique of my “Who Was Milton Friedman”, I focus on three central economic topics: (i) whether it is reasonable to claim that the Federal Reserve caused the Great Depression; (ii) whether monetary policy had the power to engineer an economic recovery after the onset of the depression; and (iii) whether monetarism succeeded or failed. On all these key points, I reject the criticisms of Nelson and Schwartz.     

Driven to Distraction: Extraneous Events and Underreaction to Earnings News

Recent studies propose that limited investor attention causes market underreactions. This paper directly tests this explanation by measuring the information load faced by investors. The  investor distraction hypothesis  holds that extraneous news inhibits market reactions to relevant news. We find that the immediate price and volume reaction to a firm's earnings surprise is much weaker, and post-announcement drift much stronger, when a greater number of same-day earnings announcements are made by other firms. We evaluate the economic importance of distraction effects through a trading strategy, which yields substantial alphas. Industry-unrelated news and large earnings surprises have a stronger distracting effect.     

Assessing risk-taking: what to measure and how to measure it

Abstract

Risk-taking has been a major field of interest for scientists and for applied purposes since decades. However, many researchers have noted that the current measurement instruments fail to show adequate validity and predictive power. Given the recent calls to develop new measures, this paper aims to highlight six key points that should be kept in mind when constructing or using measures of risk-taking concepts. Specifically, we encourage risk-taking scholars (a) to pay close attention to the terminology used in studies, (b) to distinguish measures of general and specific risk-taking, (c) to distinguish risk-taking from the appeal of risky activities, (d) to keep in mind the subjectivity of risk-taking, (e) to consider the measurement of passive risk-taking, and (f) to favour more realistic risk-taking tasks. Overall, these recommendations should help researchers to design and use more relevant risk-taking measures.