论我国金融业宏观审慎管理制度研究的基本框架

为了防范系统性风险,我国金融业有必要建立宏观审慎管理制度。我国金融业宏观审慎管理制度框架体系应由逆周期的宏观调控机制、宏观审慎管理与微观审慎管理相结合的金融机构监管机制、系统性金融风险的动态预警机制三个方面构成,还应包括推行金融业宏观审慎管理制度的相关政策。     

宏微观审慎监管对系统性金融风险冲击的时变特征与协同效应

在构建我国系统性金融风险指数的基础上,运用TVP-SV-VAR模型和系统GMM方法,研究宏观审慎管理与微观审慎监管对系统性金融风险影响的时变特征及其协同效应。结果表明：利用综合指数法构建的系统性金融风险指数能够较好地刻画我国系统性金融风险的变化特征,我国系统性金融风险不具有无限期累积性,而表现为不断反复的过程;宏观审慎管理和微观审慎监管对系统性金融风险的影响虽然均具有时变特征,但在影响程度和时机上存在显著差异;在宽松的资本类和流动类宏观审慎政策环境下实施微观审慎政策可抑制系统性金融风险上升,在宽松的微观审慎政策环境下实施资本类或流动类宏观审慎政策也能达到同样的效果,而信贷类宏观审慎政策与微观审慎政策一起使用时效果不佳。     

宏观审慎监管框架下的央行职能研究

本次金融危机凸显了加强宏观审慎监管的必要性.目前,国际社会对宏观审慎监管的重要性展开了广泛探讨,各国监管当局也在实践中逐步推进宏观审慎监管.本文剖析了宏观审慎监管框架的三个重要核心部分,即宏观审慎政策目标、政策治理范围和操作工具,进而探讨宏观审慎政策与货币政策的关系及其对中央银行履职带来的挑战.研究发现,宏观审慎政策与货币政策之间的相互作用,决定了两者必须协调使用,因此中央银行应该在宏观审慎监管中发挥主要作用,确保货币政策和宏观审慎政策的一致性,避免监管摩擦和监管真空.在我国加强宏观审慎监管的实践中,由于人民银行承担着防范和化解系统性金融风险,维护金融稳定的职责,同时具备牵头建立金融监管协调机制的法定职能和监管银行间市场、外汇市场和支付体系的法定职权,从而决定了人民银行在宏观审慎监管中必然发挥主要作用.     

宏观审慎监管与金融稳定北大核心CSSCISSCI

本次危机之后,政策制定者和学术界最早达成的一个共识就是:必须加强宏观审慎监管,以防范系统性金融风险,维护金融稳定。本文主要探讨宏观审慎监管与金融稳定相关问题:近年来系统性风险的新特征进一步凸显了加强宏观审慎监管的必要性;建立有效的宏观审慎监管框架中,中央银行的地位以及中央银行与其他相关部门的关系;我国应如何建立宏观审慎监管框架。     

宏观审慎监管:框架与政策工具

2012年全国金融工作会议将系统性金融风险防范制度作为十大课题之一,将宏观审慎监管作为系统性金融风险防范制度的子课题,可见国家对宏观审慎监管的高度重视。研究宏观审慎的含义并对政策目标进行探讨,对宏观审慎政策工具的构成以及如何安排宏观审慎政策工具的实施进行研究,以便为中国实施宏观审慎监管提供参考。     

系统性风险新认识与我国宏观审慎监管探索

国际金融危机爆发后,宏观审慎监管的必要性及方式成为国内外关注的焦点。但目前国内对宏观审慎监管和微观审慎监管的认识还存在一定不足,存在割裂的倾向。通过对系统性风险和宏观审慎监管相关文献的回顾分析,本文指出宏观审慎监管与微观审慎监管的目标是一致的,并不存在单体风险与整体风险的差别,均在于防范系统性风险,二者的差别仅在于审慎监管的角度、方法有所不同。在后危机时代,我国金融监管改革应充分吸取西方国家教训,加强从宏观审慎角度对系统性风险的分析与评估,构建全面的金融业宏、微观审慎监管机制。     

保险业系统性风险的度量框架与衡量方法研究

金融业系统性风险一直是监管机构关注的焦点。2008年金融危机的爆发凸显了加强系统性风险防范与监管的重要性。借鉴当前金融系统性风险度量框架和方法的最新进展，结合保险业实际，探索建立我国保险业系统性风险的度量框架。通过运用比较分析方法，评估各类系统性衡量方法的运用，为保险业宏观审慎监管的有效实施奠定基础。     

后危机时代的金融业改革

"十一五"期间,中国金融业成功经受住国际金融危机的严峻挑战,整体实力和抗风险能力显著提升。"十二五"期间,为巩固和扩大应对国际金融危机冲击的成果,促进金融业改革开放和健康发展,新的五年《规划》主要体现了三大平衡。加强监管与鼓励创新的平衡:强化宏观审慎监管以防范系统性风险,同时积极稳妥地开展金融创新《规划》提出,"建立健全金融宏观审慎政策框架","有效防范系统性金融风险",但同时"推动发展期货和金融衍生品市场","积极稳妥地推进     

我国微观与宏观审慎监管变革——银行监管改革探索之八

本专栏上一篇文章讨论了机构监管与功能监管,对审慎监管的概念也有了进一步阐释。所谓审慎监管就是为了防范金融风险、维护金融安全所实施的必要监管。而且,针对防范单体金融机构风险的微观审慎监管和针对防范系统性风险的宏观审慎监管从来都是不可分割的。只不过在本轮国际金融危机前,宏观审慎监管长期被忽略或忽视,使系统性风险不断积累,最后酿成全面的金融危机。因此强化宏观审慎监管成     

宏观审慎视角下的系统性金融风险研究

全球金融危机使监管者认识到仅靠微观审慎监管无法保证金融系统的稳定,必须加强逆周期的宏观审慎监管。本文首先回顾了对系统性金融风险、宏观审慎监管等重要概念的认识和发展;其次比较了美国、欧盟的逆周期宏观审慎政策框架;再次对我国的信贷投放、资本监管和贷款损失拨备的顺周期性进行了实证检验;最后,本文对我国的逆周期宏观审慎监管提出了相关建议。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.