阿根廷的金融开放与金融危机

阿根廷是美国赞扬的金融自由化典范,银行证券业向外资开放的力度大,但其爆发金融危机造成的破坏也格外严重。本文论述了阿根廷金融危机与经济全球化进程,特别是与金融开放和资本市场自由化的联系,分析了阿根廷吸引跨国银行投资,对于本国金融体系稳定所产生的影响,资本外逃如何给民众存款造成重大损失。本文还论述了中国应如何吸取阿根廷的教训,慎重对待外资收购、兼并和MBO,特别是"入世"后银行证券业的开放,更好维护本国经济金融安全,防范风险。     

金融危机:一种政治哲学的解读

由美国次贷危机引发的全球性金融危机反映了新自由主义意识形态的危机.新自由主义是从抽象的"理性人"出发,而不是从现实的社会关系出发,以抽象的普遍性意识形态,而不是以基于实践的科学意识形态,来演绎现实的政治经济建构.在"后金融危机"时期,对新自由主叉意识形态的认识与防范,时马克思主义意识形态的创新与发展,成为学术界亟待解决的重大课题.     

Financial crisis and sustainable development of Chinese manufacturing industry

Sub-prime lending crisis has become an international financial crisis, which is evolving into an economic recession sweeping across the West. Financial crisis leads to the demand reduction in western countries, and as the largest manufacturing country, China must face overproduction. The role of China as ＂world factory＂ determines that financial crisis will severely attack Chinese manufacturing industry. The unsustainable development of Chinese manufacturing industry is mainly reflected in the following aspects： heavy dependence on export, low-level manufacturing link, lack of modern service industry and high-tech industry, weak independent innovative ability, unsustainable exploration of heavy-pollution resources, and lack of international famous brands. How to transform crisis to opportunities is an urgent research topic. Under the circumstance of financial crisis. Chinese manufacturing industry has more external drives to change the current situation. Therefore, financial crisis becomes not only an opportunity for Chinese manufacturing industry to improve itself based on the existing accumulation but also a chance for China to transform from ＂world factory＂ into a powerful nation of manufacturing industry in the world.     

Financial institutions and the financial crisis in East Asia

This paper investigates institutional reasons for the soft-budget constraint problem; and how the soft-budget constraint problem creates conditions which may result in a financial crisis. As a consequence of soft-budget constraints, bad projects do not stop; bad loans accumulate; and banks and depositors do not receive bad news on time. Poorly informed depositors are then likely to herd to overinvest when there is no bankruptcy (`frenzy'); and they are likely to herd to panic when bankruptcy occurs (`crash'), which may be the result of excessive bad loans that are also a consequence of soft-budget constraints. In contrast, under hard-budget constraints information is disclosed quickly regarding liquidation. Better-informed investors are then less likely to herd wrongly.     

关于金融危机时期金融自由化的反思

美国金融危机在全世界范围引发了对金融领域发展尤其是20世纪下半叶以来的金融自由化的重新思考。在后危机时期,对金融自由化的反思仍显重要。采用研究金融自由化影响的标准化模型,加入主权债务风险等因素进行修正,进而获得启示,并对我国金融领域发展提出建议。     

Financial crisis in Southeast Asia: dispelling illusion the Minskyan way

This paper extends Minsky's financial instability hypothesisto the case of the open, ‘liberalised’, economy,making it possible to put forward a specifically Minskyan accountof the road to the financial crisis in Southeast Asia (1997/1998).The analysis suggests that the threats to growth and employmentemanating from the financial sector which Minsky identifiedin the closed economy setting are much intensified in open,liberalised, developing economies. Financial liberalisationis an important key factor in this process. Rival explanationsof the crisis are examined and rejected in favour of the extendedMinskyan explanation. The policy implications are derived anddiscussed.     

Financial crisis and persistence: evidence from sticky expectations consumption growth model

We estimate the degree of stickiness in aggregate consumption growth for the U.S. considering the effects of the Great Recession. The behavior of stickiness estimate in the crisis is somewhat as the U-shaped pattern. Our findings imply that during the crisis consumers’ attentiveness to aggregate information has slightly increased, thereby reducing the persistence of aggregate consumption growth. However, the reduction in persistence is transitory. Since 1980, the U.S. faced five recessions and in most of them the degree of stickiness declined, albeit temporarily.     

Financial integration faced with the crisis: comparative cases of Greece and Portugal

The recent economic and financial crisis affected many countries in the world in several aspects. Studies of crisis impacts on different aspects of economies would be useful to better understand the actions of each part faced with crisis, as well as the influences of each part on others. In the present research, we studied and compared the international financial integration level and its variations caused by the recent crisis for Greece and Portugal that are strongly affected. Using the Feldstein–Horioka thesis and applying ARDL model with error correction, we measured the financial integration level of these two countries. Also, using simulation, we verified how such a level can be changed by the crisis. We found that the Greece’s financial integration level is affected by the recent crisis, while this crisis has not affected the Portugal’s financial integration level. Moreover, the results for both cases were somehow considered as support for the Feldstein–Horioka initial hypothesis.     

Financial crisis in the Russian Federation: Are the Russians learning to tango?

The paper presents some evidence about the rise and fall of financial markets in Russia in the course of 1998, and discusses the causes and likely consequences of the crisis for the Russian economy. It also discusses some important policy issues regarding the effects of global financial integration. The central message is that the Russian financial disaster is a typical example of crisis contagion, although the underlying vulnerability of the economy was a problem which no investor could ignore. In particular, financial stabilization remained extremely fragile owing to the deterioration of the fiscal situation and the vulnerability of the banking system.     

Financial liberalization,disaggregated capital flows and banking crisis: Evidence from developing countries

The aim of this paper is to examine whether financial liberalization has triggered banking crises in some developing countries. We focus in particular on the role of capital flows as their volatilities threat economic stability and growth. In the empirical model, based on panel logit estimation, we use the two common financial liberalization indicators (defacto and dejure) for a panel of 58 developing countries observed during the period 1984–2007. Unlike the previous studies, this paper reveals that both indicators of financial liberalization did not trigger banking crises. However, the results show that foreign debt liabilities to total liabilities and foreign direct investment liabilities to total liabilities increase the likelihood of banking crises.     

Financial market development,global financial crisis and economic growth: evidence from developing nations

Emerging and frontier markets in Africa have witnessed various economic and financial reforms aimed at integrating the domestic markets into the global financial market to attract investment. Whether these reforms promote high economic growth remains inconclusive. The paper applies the pooled mean group estimation technique to empirically re-investigate the link between financial market development, global financial crisis, and economic growth in selected African economies. The results strongly support our hypotheses that stock market and banking sector development promotes economic growth in the selected countries. Moreover, financial crisis reduce the positive effects of both the stock market and banking sector developments on economic growth. The study suggests that both the banking sector and stock market are important to deliver the long-run economic growth that the African region desired. Moreover, effort should be made to enact policy measures that would ensure development of the stock market which has received inadequate attention.     

后危机时代中国金融监管理念变革与政策调整

此次金融危机使我们深刻认识到,始终将为实体经济的需求服务为目标,并维持相对稳健的杠杆水平,是中国金融业在危机中保持较好表现的根本原因.长期来看,中国经济持续稳定发展取决于经济发展模式的成功转型.在这一过程中,金融业的持续稳健发展是重中之重,而这又与金融业监管高度相关.本文在剖析当前中国金融业发展中存在的风险和机遇的基础上,借鉴后危机时代国际金融监管的改进经验,提出金融业监管要探索"中国模式",而这一模式的基础是稳健高效并具有国际竞争力的金融业.     

Economics of the crisis and the crisis of economics

Abstract

The macroeconomic instability revealed in the recent deep recession steams from the condition of balance sheets. Generally high leverage and strained maturity mismatches build up slowly but generate a financial structure so brittle that the impulse that eventually sends it crashing is hard to identify. The US financial system had been rendered more vulnerable by the financial reforms that swept away the Glass-Steagall regulations. The crisis made the inadquancies of the ruling macroeconomic paradigm painfully obvious. DSGE models generally did not include a financial sector and did not take the possibility of dramatic instability seriously. Unanticipated violations of budget constraints do not fit easily into general equilibrium models.     

Debt crisis,accumulation crisis and economic restructuring in Latin America

The policy debate over the Latin American debt crisis has shifted from the issue of short-term adjustment to that of long-term restructuring. The history of import substituting industrialization (IS) is reviewed in order to establish a context for the current restructuring debates. We argue that the demise of the IS model was primarily due to narrow domestic markets, heavy imports of capital goods and excessive ties with foreign multinationals, not to inefficiencies inherent in market-constraining policies. From this perspective, free market, export-led growth policies are opposed as an appropriate restructuring strategy and policies of redistribution, regional integration and major debt concessions are supported.     

The exchange rate regime in Asia: From crisis to crisis

Prior to the Asian financial crisis, most Asian exchange rates were de facto pegged to the US Dollar. During the crisis, many economies experienced a brief period of extreme flexibility. A ‘fear of floating’ gave reduced flexibility when the crisis subsided, but flexibility after the crisis was greater than that seen prior to the crisis. Contrary to the idea of a durable Bretton Woods II arrangement, Asia then went on to slowly raise flexibility and reduce the role for the US dollar. When the period from April 2008 to December 2009 is compared against periods of high inflexibility, from January 1991 to November 1991 and October 1995 to March 1997, the increase in flexibility is economically and statistically significant. This paper proposes a new measure of dollar pegging, the “Bretton Woods II Score”. We find that Asia has been slowly moving away from a Bretton Woods II arrangement.     

Anatomy of a financial crisis

This paper provides an asymmetric information framework for understanding the nature of financial crises. It provides the following precise definition of a financial crisis: A financial crisis is a disruption to financial markets in which adverse selection and moral hazard problems become much worse, so that financial markets are unable to efficiently channel funds to those who have the most productive investment opportunities. As a result, a financial crisis can drive the economy away from an equilibrium with high output in which financial markets perform well to one in which output declines sharply. The asymmetric information framework explains the patterns in the data and many features of these crises which are otherwise hard to explain. It indicates that financial crises have effects over and above those resulting from bank panics and therefore provides a rationale for an expanded lender-of-last-resort role for the central bank in which the central bank uses the discount window to provide liquidity to sectors outside of the banking system.     

AIDS crisis and growth

We investigate an OLG economy where an AIDS epidemic influences human capital accumulation and growth through the creation of large numbers of orphans. We study how intra-family allocations regarding school and work time of children are adjusted in the face of AIDS within a family, and how, in turn, these adjustments influence accumulation of physical and human capital. We compute the aggregate effects of an AIDS epidemic on human and physical capital accumulation and growth. We find that growth effects of an AIDS epidemic are large. Some policies such as subsidization of AIDS medication have relatively small effects.     

The looming retirement crisis

A retirement crisis looms in the United States due to a number of recent and emerging trends that affect government retirement programs, employer- and union-sponsored retirement benefits and personal savings arrangements. The crisis can be averted, but only with well-thought-out action on a number of issues, particularly Social Security and Medicare reform.     

Speculator-triggered crisis and interventions

This paper adds a speculator and an authority to a benchmark global game model to investigate how the speculator endangers a business or an economy, and what the authority can do about it. It is found that the existence of a speculator increases the financial system’s vulnerability by serving as a coordinating device for the investors and thus triggering the crisis. We then compare three different intervention policies imposed by the authority aiming to counteract this effect: deterring the speculator, rewarding holding investors, and eliminating the preemption motives among investors. We argue that the first method may not work because of the multiplicity problem; the second one is useless when a crisis is about to happen; the last tool works given enough effort. We also include a discussion of different intervention polices employed by governments during the 1997 Asian financial crisis to illustrate the theoretical results.