The future as information

Based on the notion that a society can be simplified to the sum of information communicable among its members, the development of information is then one of the most decisive, formative factors for the future. This essay examines the implications of information and information technologies for American social dynamics of the future. The political potentialities of new means of communication and of information manipulation are discussed in particular.     

Emerging powers as fact and metaphor: Some European ideas

Emerging powers appear to be rather diverse although some of them, like China and India, are mapping the world. They can be countries or regions, social scapes and flows, economic networks or global cities. They emerge after several decades of global flexible capitalism and the rise of regional networks and city-states. In order to meet contemporary challenges, emerging powers need the experience of coherence of older homogeneities as well as the complexities of extended, differentiated societies and social structures. This new step in recent globalization has to be mediated and understood. The European cultural memory of conflict, mediation and negotiation may enable Europeans to let emerging powers grow beyond the world of traditional empires and their global economies, beyond the worlds of nation-states and their international economy, and beyond the world of liberal empires and their global economy. This reflexivity and complexity may enable the social sciences to play an important public role, which they have not had for many decades, if they understand their moment.     

Women as builders of the future

This article suggests that as the industrial society is in a transition crisis, women have a major role to play in building a peaceful, post-industrial society. It outlines how women have been marginalized by industrial society, and how this has allowed them to develop and work with their own sets of values and priorities. These values, which are in conflict with those of the industrial society, make women more adaptable to change and more able to facilitate change.     

Predispositions as determinants of the future

Futures studies has been dominated by the concerns of forecasting and control. This paper suggests that predispositions held by people, especially attitudes and assumptions, have a significant impact on the future and thus constitute an important field of research in futures studies. It discusses three major types of predisposition, and outlines two mechanisms by which they affect the future, especially as it relates to technology. Three examples drawn from real life are then analysed to illustrate the variety of impacts that predispositions have on the future. It is not the intention of this paper to provide a full treatment of the topic, but rather to make an initial proposal. So, finally, the simplifications made in the paper are discussed, and suggestions made about fruitful avenues of further research.     

Metaphor as fundamental to future discourse

In a time of information overload, increasing invasiveness, and questionable strategic coherence for individuals and collectivities, the question is whether metaphors have an especially important role to play. Thinking and engaging otherwise through metaphor therefore merits particular consideration. The argument focuses on the possibility of a meta-strategy by reframing the interweaving of themes through emerging implications of “meta” and “para”. This should enable forms of self-reflexive dialogue in “parameta space” to be envisaged.     

The future quantified

The results reported in this paper demonstrate that the qualitative (group) research and quantitative (individual) survey techniques that have been developed now offer a viable means for mapping current expectations and the possible future directions these will take. Sensible use of these should provide governments, and large organisations in general, with a powerful new set of tools for positively managing the future. In terms of the issues themselves, the group which emerged most strongly from the quantified responses of the individuals are those which might be seen as relating to the ‘green' environment. On the other hand, our qualitative groups looked upon these key issues as representing matters of survival for humanity as a whole. Such a focus on survival may seem selfish, but it can also be seen as altruistic not concerned with personal survival. It also represents a sound, rational approach to long-term planning, where the respondents focused instead on how governments might positively, and safely, manage all the long-term issues threatening the future of humankind. If we move away from ‘green' issues, it is also clear that even individuals recognize the globalisation of issues in particular the globalisation of business, the possibility of a global financial crash and the (threat of) domination by Pacific Rim countries. At the opposite end of the spectrum are worries about the significant problems faced by the underclasses—and, in turn, the significant threat these present to society as a whole. In general though, apart from technological issues, the emphasis was—across almost all areas—on survival in the face of events ranging down from catastrophes to mere crises and stresses!     

The Museums' future

‘The Museums' Future’ argues that through the effects of the postmodernisation of museums, art has been ceded variously to culture, commerce, politics, values and to experience. In this scenario, political culture has surrendered to cultural politics.It asks whether a museum project of the future can be envisaged in which history and experience are not replaced entirely by spectacle, and memory is not banalized? Can the museum contribute to reconfigurations of the Subject and Other and to identity and difference without falling into the traps of a politics of identity? Can the museum find ways of reaffirming universal principles without running the risk of imposing a new order dominated by a single culture?     

Forward rates as predictors of future spot rates

When adjusted for variation through time in expected premiums, the forward rates of interest that are implicit in Treasury Bill prices contain assessments of expected future spot rates of interest that are about as good as those that can be obtained from the information in past spot rates. Moreover, in setting bill prices and forward rates, the market reacts appropriately to the negative autocorrelation in monthly changes in the spot rate and to changes through time in the degree of this autocorrelation. This evidence is consistent with the market efficiency proposition that in setting bill prices, the market correctly uses the information in past spot rates.     

The future of politics

Humankind is undergoing subtle but vast transformations, from the impact of globalization to the pull of local comforts, from the movement toward regional organizations to the demands of transnational groups, from the ever more powerful consequences of microelectronic technologies to the ever deepening bonds of interdependence. These changes can fairly be described as the emergence of a new epoch marked by altered global structures and driven by a skill revolution, an organizational explosion, and a continuous flow of ideas, money, goods, and people that is rendering long-standing territorial boundaries increasingly obsolete and fostering an extensive decentralization of authority. The future of politics is thus conceived to be pervaded by contradictions, ambiguities, and uncertainties.     

The future of happiness

Following definitions of ‘happiness’ and ‘social development’, crossnational and temporal happiness trends are analysed to reveal whether reported happiness reflects changes in broader social conditions. The authors question whether an effective measurement of happiness can serve as an indicator of social development. In addition, the role of information in contributing to or maximizing happiness is analysed.     

The future of religions

The global future of religions is considered in the context of ‘worldviews’ which, unlike traditional Western beliefs, combine religious and secular belief systems into a dynamic functioning whole. Seven world blocs relating to seven worldviews are identified: the ‘democratic West’ (with a largely Christian background); the Euro—Asian Marxist bloc; the Islamic crescent from Indonesia to North Africa; the non-Marxist, non-Islamic cultures of old Asia; Latin America; Black Africa south of the Sahara; and the smaller countries of the Pacific. The dual forces of individualism and nationalism will have the largest impact on the future development and interactions of religions. The most powerful changes politically will be the convergence of the interests of Christianity and Western humanism on the one hand, and Buddhism and other religions on the other. The ecumenical North—South character emerging in Christianity will make the churches more critical of the present economic system, ‘privatized’ religion will appear in the Marxist countries, hardline Judaism will intensify in the USA (despite developments in Israel) and the friction between radical Hindu and Islamic values will increase (especially in India) and could be a major factor in warfare over the next 30 years.     

The future of fintech

This article describes the growing field of financial technology (fintech) and the different financial paradigms and technologies that support it. Fintech is primarily a disintermediation force where disruptive technologies are the drivers. This framework discusses 10 primary areas in fintech comprising a taxonomy, which categorizes research in the field and also proposes a pedagogical structure. Pitfalls of fintech are also analyzed. Overall, the great strides made in computing technology, mathematics, statistics, psychology, econometrics, linguistics, cryptography, big data, and computer interfaces have combined to create an explosion of fintechs.     

The future of morality

Moral criticism of human institutions is frequent : the acceptance of social constraints by the free individual is rare. This moral inversion is inconsistent with the survival of an increasingly interdependent society. Statements of human rights must be replaced by statements of human responsibility if we are to make the world viable.     

Applying the biological evolution metaphor to technological innovation

A synthetic theory of evolution is taken as representing the metaphor for the process of innovation. The model is employed to highlight major characteristics of changes in technological innovation and in the time phasing of industrial inventions and innovations. Analysis at the level of the industrial sector is used as a heuristic example of the metaphor, with a focus on innovations in the car industry. Forecasting future products is seen as related to materials requirements, primary human needs and the role of the service sectors.     

The future begins today: Nature as teacher in environmental adult popular education

The future begins today is a review of the importance and role of learning, specifically environmental adult and popular education, in working with communities and community-based organizations on planning, organizing and revisioning life from an ecological perspective. The authors report on their work based at the Transformative Learning Centre in Toronto, Canada which explores the role of nature as both teacher and site of learning. Theoretical and practical illustrations are included.All education, up to our present moment, has never countenanced the possibility of planetary destruction from the destruction of the life-support system. This viability of planetary existence was never an issue for educators because it was not, until now, part of our cultural understanding. (Hall and O'Sullivan, Transformative Learning: Contexts and Practices, 1994)The human enterprise cannot be separated from the natural world even in our minds because no such separation exists in nature.(Wackernagel and Rees, Our Ecological Footprint, 1995).     

Tantra as episteme: A pedagogy of the future

In the face of the contemporary university's failure to escape from economic rationality and therefore create environments conducive to positive futures an alternative model of university is proposed. This is based on an episteme rooted in Tantra, a world view that allows for a multi-layering of discourse to occur in order to greatly extend the university's mandate as a cultural catalyst for future generations. It is argured that Tantra, which is situated in a resurgent indigenous consciousness, is both ancient and modern possessing as it does the deep wisdoms of this episteme while being energised with a liberatory ethic aimed at physical, social and spiritual emancipation from exploitative ideologies.     

Unix终端还能走多远?

今天,当桌面计算已经进入了一个图形化的视窗时代后,曾经最早进入信息化的Unix终端行业用户,依然在使用着纯粹的Unix终端。当行业应用对终端产品提出更多新的需求,传统的Unix终端显然已经不能适应应用需求的快速延伸与扩展,我们不禁质疑:传统Unix终端还能走多远?2003年5月,国内图形终端的领导者升腾资讯公司,以“终结Unix终端时代”的鲜明旗帜,发布数十款升腾终端产品,以完善、成熟的“一台清”行业桌面应用方案,打响了一场全面替换传统Unix终端的产业升级革命。行业应用深刻变化提出“一台清”终端需求回顾终端发展历史,具有相对简单的…     

The future of social security

We analyze the effect of the projected demographic transition on the political support for social security, and equilibrium outcomes. Embedding a probabilistic-voting setup of electoral competition in the standard OLG model with capital accumulation, we find that intergenerational transfers arise in the absence of altruism, commitment, or trigger strategies. Closed-form solutions predict population ageing to lead to higher social security tax rates, a rising share of pensions in GDP, but eventually lower social security benefits per retiree. The response of equilibrium tax rates to demographic shocks reduces old-age consumption risk. Calibrated to match features of the U.S. economy, the model suggests that, in response to the projected demographic transition, social security tax rates will gradually increase to 16%. Other policies that distort labor supply will become less important; labor supply therefore will rise, in contrast with frequently voiced fears.     

The historian and the future

Historians had to come to terms with the fact that there is no ‘absolute’ past, long before forecasters were pondering the benefits of the ‘absolute’ future. They have also had to come to terms with their style of presentation, their personal biases, and the fact that they are grounded in the present and are therefore influenced by present preoccupations. Historians and futures researchers have much in common. This article explores the extent of their common ground and how it might be extended.