Sovereign credit spreads and the composition of the government budget

This paper investigates the relationship between sovereign credit spreads and the composition of the government budget. The key result of this paper is that governments that invest more and spend less on consumption have significantly lower sovereign credit spreads. This finding is in accordance with the endogenous growth theory, which predicts a positive impact of government investment and a negative impact of government consumption on the long-term growth rate. Finally, a broader tax base significantly reduces sovereign credit spreads. A possible explanation may be that governments with more tax receipts are less likely to have liquidity problems to finance their debt charges.     

信用衍生产品在商业银行信用风险管理中的运用

本文介绍了商业银行面临的信用风险、信用衍生产品在商业银行信用风险管理中的运用以及信用衍生产品对商业银行的影响。     

Fiscal limits and sovereign default risk in Japan

It is widely known that Japan has the highest debt-to-GDP ratio among OECD countries. If Japan’s national debt continues to balloon, fiscal crisis may occur in the future. This paper develops a closed economy model with defaultable government debt and conducts a simulation to investigate future sovereign debt risk.First, we estimate the fiscal limit which is defined as the sum of the discounted maximum fiscal surplus in all future periods. It is assumed that a partial default occurs when the amount of government debt exceeds the fiscal limit. We calculate the revenue-maximizing tax rate at the peak of the Laffer curve to derive the fiscal limit. As a result, the estimated average fiscal limit in Japan is much higher than that in Greece. In the Japanese economy, households are more patient and desire greater savings from greater discount factor derived from a lower real interest rate. Household saving habits support government bonds. This is the main reason why the Japanese government could have had a massive debt in addition to some room to raise the tax rate. Second, we simulate the model, using the estimated fiscal limit and non-linear computational methods. If the government debt-to-GDP ratio continues to increase for the next 20 years, the default probability will be over 10% and the sovereign risk premium will be approximately 2%. Furthermore, the default probability will reach approximately 80% and the sovereign risk premium will be 10% 30 years later.     

欧美主权债务危机的深层次原因和启示

本文阐述了西方国家主权债务危机的理论由来和发展现状,从技术层面、政策层面、文化层面和制度层面对债务危机的原因进行了深入分析,认为解决债务危机如只停留在技术层面和政策层面,不从文化层面和制度层面进行反思和改革,西方国家债务依赖问题终将不可持续。此番债务危机也给我国带来了多方面的启示。     

Sovereign Spreads and Contagion Risks in Asia

In the aftermath of the recent global financial turmoil, sovereign spreads have exhibited a significant degree of volatility. This paper explores how much of these movements in the spreads of Asian economies reflected shifts in global risk aversion or country‐specific risks, directly from worsening fundamentals, or indirectly from spillovers originating in other sovereigns, or risks and uncertainty surrounding their exchange rates. This analysis finds that earlier in the crisis, the increase in market‐implied contagion led to an increase of sovereign bond yields relative to the swaps. Higher‐rated sovereign bonds in Asia benefited from the flight to quality that accompanied the increase in global risk aversion during this period. Once the systemic risks in the financial sectors worldwide were contained, the risk of sovereign spillovers eased, which, together with a fall in perceived currency‐related risks, led to a fall in sovereign bond yields relative to swaps yields across the board. Comparing the situation to that of Europe, the present paper concludes that the debt crisis in the euro area has not affected the perception of sovereign risks of Asian economies. In fact, a fall in exchange rate and spillover risks, combined with stronger fundamentals, have led to a continued normalization of Asian sovereign spreads since the height of the financial crisis.     

关于企业信用风险的管理与防范

在激烈地市场竞争中,信用销售已成为强有力的市场竞争手段之一,但信用销售会使企业面临巨大的信用风险。本文首先就我国企业信用风险的成因作了简要分析,然后从如何建立和完善企业信用管理体系,以及如何采取有效的信用风险的规避措施来防范信用风险等方面,对企业信用风险控制进行了深入研究。     

信贷政策对江苏产业结构优化问题的探讨

本文在对产业结构与信贷政策相关性进行研究的基础上 ,提出了制定合理的信贷政策 ,优化产业结构的对策     

中小企业信用担保的总体情境与财政政策匹配

中小企业是支撑经济增长和社会发展的重要力量。在中小企业信用担保体系框架中,财政资金的杠杆作用日益凸显。财政支持中小企业信用担保政策备受关注。针对中小企业信用担保机构现阶段的发展特点,财政对中小企业信用担保行业的支持需要从提升功能、防范风险和改善环境三个方面着手,从而促进该体系担保功能的有效发挥,实现促进中小企业发展的政策目标。     

Apply the network information technology to build credit systems and reduce credit costs

This paper first dissertates about the significance of credit building after China entering to the WTO in terms of the credit trades, the gap between China and the western countries in credit building, and the higher requirements of network integrity for credit building; Second, specifically analyzes the four aspects of contents involved in the concept of credit cost and the character of large fluctuation range; Third, sets forth the truth that ＂credit is invaluable＂ and points out that China still has to reduce credit costs; Fourth, from the relationship between normative economics and positive economics, demonstrates that credit, as well as technology （in a broad sense）, is an indispensable basic element for the network economy, and to reduce economic operating costs, the situation of seriously laggard credit building has to be turned as soon as possible; At last, offers specific proposals on how to build a credit system in terms of investigating and assessing credit conditions, applying the network information technology to build credit systems, laying a property right foundation for credit building, building an institutionalized credit system, and developing the credit industry.     

我国商业银行保理业务的信用风险及其对策

震动银行业界的南京爱立信事件,引起了人们对国内很多人来说仍十分陌生的保理业务的关注。文章对保理业务进行了介绍并着重分析了商业银行在保理业务中面临的内部信用风险和外部信用风险,并就如何防范商业银行在保理业务中的信用风险提出了四点对策:严格审查保理业务各当事人     

How much informal credit lending responded to monetary policy in China? The case of Wenzhou

This study investigates empirically what the major factors are which have driven Wenzhou's informal credit market and how much that market is responsive to monetary policies and the formal banking conditions nationwide. A number of relatively stable factors have been identified from this volatile market through a careful exploration of a monthly survey data set for the period of 2003–2011. The main findings are: (i) Wenzhou's informal credit lending rates are highly receptive to monetary policies; (ii) Wenzhou's market is dominantly demand driven; (iii) Wenzhou's informal lending is substitutive to bank savings in the short run but complementary to banking lending in the long run; and (iv) Wenzhou's market is complementary to excessive investments in the local real estate market.     

国际结算中我国出口企业面临的信用证风险及其防范

伴随我国加入到WTO,国际贸易日渐充实频繁,作为在国际结算中占突出地位的结算方式的信用证也渐渐受到我国外贸出口企业业务人员的信赖,但是信用证并不是完全的安全,它也存在一定程度的风险。为此,采用良好的防范措施是相当有必要的。     

我国企业信用管理制度建设初探

信用建设是我国发展市场经济的基础工程之一,而企业信用制度又是整个社会信用体系的微观基础,因此建设我国的企业信用管理制度已成为当务之急。本文对企业信用管理制度的基本内容作了系统阐述。     

我国目前结售汇制的利弊

市场经济是信用经济 ,各经济主体之间的信用关系是所有经济活动的基础。信用是一种资源 ,可以用来融资、理财、配置资源等。对信托业而言 ,信用更是赖以生存和发展的根本。不可否认 ,中国信托业在特殊历史背景下有其特别的作用 ,但其发展过程的艰难与曲折也是有目共睹的。究其     

金融创新对货币政策传导效率的影响——利率与信用管道的比较研究

金融创新使实际投资对利率的敏感程度下降，使金融资产之间替代转换程度提高，交易成本降低，全融资产价格对利率变化的反应程度提高。从而提高了交易效率和速度：其结果是，IS曲线变得更加陡峭，LM曲线变得更加平缓，致使货币政策利率渠道和信用渠道的传导机制和效果减弱，但信用渠道仍具有比较优势。因此金融创新条件下的货币政策执行更应关注银行的改革与证券市场的发展问题，同时为稳定经济，不可盲目快速推进金融创新。     

我国商业银行消费信贷风险的防范策略研究

随着我国市场经济不断完善,消费信贷业务也在不断发展。本文对我国商业银行消费信贷业务存在的主要问题进行了分析,并针对所存在的问题提出了相关的解决方法及风险防范的政策建议。     

政府投资项目代建制的财政和财务管理工作探讨

代建制作为一种新的建设模式,克服了“投、建、管、用”四位一体的政府投资工程管理模式所带来的非专业化、低效率、低质量等弊端,通过专业化、集中化和市场化的管理,实现投资控制,保证质量和工期。但代建制是有相应的配套制度作保障的,如果制度不配套,依然会存在风险。在新的政府协调干预机制下———建筑工务局的成立,探讨如何搞好代建制的财政财务管理工作。     

加入WTO对我国财务的影响

本文结合CLM图和信用危机特征 ,分析指出 :当今信用危机已显现 ,我们必须从文化、资源、社会等成因出发 ,提高道德水平和加强法制建设 ,才能防范其恶化。     

波兰农业信贷政策及启示：基于信贷配给的视角分析

文章从信贷配给理论的视角,分析说明了波兰促进农业发展的信贷政策是一种以推行农业优惠贷款利息补贴为主要方式、农业项目工程为载体、银行机构监督约束为主体、政府信用担保为补充的信贷配额制。借鉴波兰的经验,我国应采取对金融市场信贷配给进行适度干预、建立和完善农业信贷政策体系、注重政府与商韭银行双重信贷的配合使用和加强农业信贷信用担保体系建设等措施,积极引导银行资金向农业倾斜,以改变农业发展相对滞后的不利局面。     

地方财政收入对城镇化水平的影响研究--基于长三角地区的实证

近年来我国城镇化进程明显加快,政府的财政支持在城镇化进程中发挥着重要作用。长三角地区是我国重点发展的三大城市群之一,对其研究具有示范意义。文章选取1995-2012年的数据,利用面板数据模型分析长三角地区三省一市地方财政收入与城镇化率两者的关系,研究发现,城镇化水平随着财政收入的增加而提高,区域内城镇化的不均衡发展与财政收入有直接关系,从长远看应注重财政投入对城镇化的作用。