房地产泡沫如何埋下次级债危机的种子

本轮美国次级债危机已经演变为自1998年长期资本管理公司破产以来全球资本市场面临的最严重危机。危机的演进遵循三个严丝合缝、环环相扣的风险     

警惕房地产泡沫

股票市场崩盘，“价值回归论”出现。由于高溢价发行，中国股市必然要回归到国际市场水平，“价值回归论”可以解释股市的下挫。我们现在所说的是另一个问题：未来数年，房地产会不会出现像股市这样的崩盘?大家都承认经济过热，但很少有人把它明确定义为“局部地区局部产业”的过热。钢铁、水泥投资过热，能源消耗提高，贸易逆差，物价上升，根源是房地产泡沫。许多人说中国人多．土地少，50年也不会有泡沫。我国城市住宅建筑面积60亿平方米，4亿居民人均住宅面积20平方米，需增20亿平方米。     

降低房地产开发贷款的风险

房地产融资渠道单一的问题由来已-久，至今仍未得到根本扭转。一般认为，房地产融资过于依赖银行信贷，直接潜藏两方面的风险：一是房地产产业风险，影响房地产业持续稳定发展；二是金融信贷风险，危害国家金融安全。笔者认为，应当用系统化的眼光来考察房地产融资渠道单一的问题，它不仅是作为金融机构的银行和实施开发行为的房地产企业之间的问题，而且也涉及到整个房地产金融市场，包括政策环境、金融机构和产品、投融资机制等诸多方面。     

我国房地产金融机构的现状和发展设想

针对我国现行房地产金融机构存在的地区差异性、形式多样性和管理体制上的多重性等特征,提出了成立政府非盈利房地产金融机构、组建公营或股份合作制形式的住房贷款保险机构等发展设想,为我国房地产金融机构体系的进一步改革与完善提供了有益的参考。     

发展房地产投资信托为房地产公司融资另辟蹊径

当前为了维护金融体系的安全，国有商业银行纷纷提高了对房地产开发贷款的门槛，这对我国多数自有资金不足、融资渠道单一的房地产公司的经营活动带来了极大的负面影响。考虑到房地产业对我国GDP增长的巨大贡献，我们有必要引入新的融资渠道，促进房地产业整体健康发展。而房地产投资信托通过集合社会闲散资金，使用专业人士投资、经营管理，不仅可以解决房地产公司的外部融资渠道单一和融资难问题，而且也可以促进房地产业的资金结构和产品结构的优化，并为中小投资者参与房地产投资和收益分配提供了现实途径。     

房地产投资基金与房地产企业融资

在正常情况下，企业融资的方式主要有四种：企业自我积累、企业间相互拆借、向银行借贷、通过证券市场发行股票、债券融资。自我积累是一种最原始的方式，房地产企业的发展耗资巨大，仅靠企业自我积累显然是难以支持的，必须谋求其他的融资渠道。然而，在目前的形势下，另外三种方式也不易实施，存在着这样或那样的障碍。自国家实施宏观调控以来，银根紧缩的状况始终没有得到彻底改观，企业普遍缺少资金，相互拆借已无可能。     

回顾历史:日本房地产泡沫危机带给我们的启示

一、引言 近年来,我国房地产投资快速增长,两三年房价就上涨了三倍,我国许多城市的"房价收入比"已经超出国际标准至少3倍以上.     

Is there a real estate factor premium?

In this paper, we study the variation of expected returns on five different asset portfolios in a multi-factor model. We found the presence of a real estate factor, in addition to both a stock factor and a bond factor in asset pricing. This suggests that mutual fund managers should seriously consider including real estate assets in their portfolios, since one cannot capture the real estate factor premium without having some kind of real estate exposure. Another result is that the market segmentation found in previous studies disappears in a more general model of asset pricing in which we allow for multi-factors other than the market factor to affect asset returns. This implies that real estate assets can be treated just like other assets as far as mean-variance efficient asset allocations are concerned. We also have some preliminary evidence that equity REITs and the Russell-NCREIF index are driven by the same underlying real estate factor.     

Is there a world real interest rate?

This study uses panel data techniques to estimate a common component to the ex post real interest rates of nine countries with liberal capital markets over the past 16 years. We show that the residuals from such a regression have almost no serial correlation, and that each country's real interest rate is highly correlated with the estimated world real interest rate. The primary exception to these findings is the behavior of the US real interest rate, which exhibits large and persistent deviations from the estimated world real interest rate, although it is still highly correlated with the world real interest rate.     

Real estate returns,money and fiscal deficits: Is the real estate market efficient?

This research examines the causal relationship between several financial variables and a portfolio of real estate returns using monthly data from January 1965 to December 1986. The empirical analysis is based on multivariate Granger-causality tests in conjunction with Akaike's final prediction error criterion. The results indicate that measures approximating monetary policy and market returns play an important role in causing changes in real estate returns. In particular, our findings suggest that base money and market returns have had significant lagged effects on current real estate returns.     

Risk management of real estate: The case of real estate swaps

Real estate swaps are a recent financial innovation based upon the principle of comparative advantage. A real estate swap is a useful tool for real estate risk management and for participating in real estate investment without the high costs associated with real estate. Potential economic benefits and costs associated with real estate swaps are considered and real estate swaps are compared to alternative tools for real estate risk management. The expected utility and effectiveness of risk management with a swap in a multiperiod framework are analyzed. The analysis finds that the subject property's return and its risk characteristics (as reflected in its correlation with interest rate and property index returns) delimit the risk management potential of a given swap position. Optimal swap positions are shown for various regions and property types based on historical return series, from the period between 1983 and 1992, and the parameters of the dynamic model developed.     

Risk and return in real estate

Basic information is provided on the returns and risks from 1978 through 1985 for unleveraged equity real estate compared with stocks and bonds. Data sources include the Russell-NCREIF index, the Evaluation Associates index, and the Goldman Sachs equity real estate investment trust index. Findings reveal that the aggregate return for the publicly traded equity real estate investment trust index in nearly twice that of the other real estate series, and more than twice that of the Standard & Poor index. The equity real estate investment trust is far more volatile than the other two real estate series. Neither the Goldman Sachs nor the other two indexes exactly measure the returns or risks on equity real estate. The volatility of the equity real estate investment trust leads it to overstate the risk of this investment category, while the other two indexes are not return indexes. Estimates from this study indicate that real estate risk lies plausibly midway between that of stocks and bonds, in the 9 percent to 13 percent range.     

Franchising and real estate brokerage

This paper examines the value of franchise affiliation to real estate brokerage firms. It uses a national sample to estimate models of brokerage firm sales and revenues. The results suggest that franchisees sell more properties than nonaffiliates, but that the average franchise sale results in less revenue. The net benefit of franchise affiliation is a 9.0 percent increase in net revenue to the average firm. We compare the initial cost of affiliation with the benefits and find that the up-front fees charged by franchisors are substantially lower than the present value of the stream of incremental profits generated by franchise affiliation.     

加拿大房地产税的征管及特点

房地产税是加拿大最古老的税种之一,税基宽,税率低,是其地方政府财政收入的主要来源。加拿大建立了科学有效的房地产税估价制度,通过评税确定计税依据,计算机辅助批量评估系统也提高了评税工作效率,减少了地方财政负担,已经建成卓有成效的房地产税评估争端解决机制,保证了加拿大房地产税评税工作在100多年来能够逐渐走向成熟,并成为世界上许多转型国家效仿的典范。     

我的海外置业计划

在澳洲布里斯本中心的热带雨林花园里,30米高的瀑布在阳光下划出梦幻般的彩虹,一栋设计简约大方的公寓掩映其后,透过公寓宽大明亮的落地窗,花园全景一览无余.这是我在2002年以33万澳元(合人民币200万元)购买的期房,实用面积为150平米.     

Lending behavior and real estate prices

The willingness of banks to provide funding for real estate purchases depends on the creditworthiness of borrowers. Besides other factors, this creditworthiness depends on the development of real estate prices. Real estate prices, in turn, depend on the demand for homes which is influenced by the supply of mortgages. I develop a theoretical model which explains this circular relationship. I show how different kinds of expectation formations can lead to fluctuations in real estate prices. Furthermore, I show that banks make above-average profits in the upswing phase of the real estate cycle but suffer high losses when the market turns.