A dynamic model of family formation and dissolution for the United States

Conclusion The purpose of this paper has been to develop a macroeconomic model of marriage and divorce for the United States for the period 1921–1974. The model has been estimated in both levels and first differences, using two different measures for marriage and divorce rates. The fit of the equations is very good. The major explanatory variables are statistically significant and of the expected sign in both versions of the model (levels and first differences). GNP has a positive effect on both marriage and divorce rates. Female labor force participation has a positive effect on divorce and a negative effect on marriage, indicating that the rise in the female market potential is a significant factor in explaining behavior of these two variables. Fertility has a positive effect on marriage and a negative effect on divorce, indicating that the presence of children has some stabilizing effect on marriage.More work remains to be done. The model has to be dynamically simulated in order to test its ability to forecast both within and outside of the sample period, i.e., 1975–1980. There is also a need to introduce more demographic variables, such as sex ratio, age at first marriage, and race, and to disaggregate the model.     

Introduction to the special issue on ‘global trading system and protectionism: China,the United States and Europe’

ABSTRACT

In this Introduction to our Special Issue, we provide detailed and critical comments and summaries of the excellent papers. The papers are important contributions to the China-U.S. and China-Europe economic and trade issues in the context of the global trading environment, as shaped by the current unorthodox policies of the Trump Administration. The wonderful papers dealt with relevant issues related to international trade, investment, national security, trade laws, intellectual property rights laws, political science, business, etc. They constitute a must-read for academics, policy and business researchers, think tank fellows, experts in international organizations, as well as government-related researchers in various national capitals. The three Co-editors are all experienced and accomplished academics with vast experiences in public policies. As academics, they may hold different views but their unique and diverse perspectives provide an important background to the Special Issue. They jointly contributed major efforts to this timely and important Special Issue.     

A model of translation of foreign financial statements under inflation in the United States and Canada*

Abstract. This study investigates the translation of foreign financial statements in inflationary economies. The analysis is conducted by comparing the results obtained from the temporal and current rate methods to the translated adjusted-for-inflation (TAI) financial statements under varying degrees of purchasing power parity. The findings indicate that under perfect purchasing power parity, the temporal method yields undistorted results versus TAI. The current rate method, however, results in a distortion. When the purchasing power parity degree is not perfect, both the current rate and temporal methods distort the results. However, if the inflation exceeds the devaluation of the local currency, translation using the temporal method results in a lower distortion. This result is reversed when the devaluation of the local currency exceeds the rate of inflation. The study then proceeds to examine, from the viewpoint of a standard-setting body, the translation models in a cost-benefit framework. The results indicate that TAI is usually the best. This result is due to the fact that the benchmark model is more informative than the other methods, and the information production costs are close to the costs under the temporal method. Further, if the rate of inflation exceeds the devaluation of the local currency, the temporal method dominates the current rate method. The opposite holds if the devaluation of the local currency exceeds the rate of inflation. Moreover, this study examines the implications of CICA Handbook. Section 1650. The findings indicate that the Canadian variant of the temporal methods results in a distortion even when the purchasing power parity assumption holds. Résumé. L'auteur s'intéresse à la conversion des états financiers dressés en devises, dans les économies inflationnistes. Son analyse repose sur la comparaison des résultats de l'application de la méthode temporelle et de la méthode du taux courant à la conversion des états financiers ajustés pour tenir compte de l'inflation, selon divers degrés de parité du pouvoir d'achat. Suivant les résultats obtenus en situation de parité parfaite du pouvoir d'achat, la conversion à l'aide de la méthode temporelle est sans biais par rapport à celle de la conversion des états financiers ajustés pour tenir compte de l'inflation. La méthode du taux courant donne lieu, quant à elle, à un biais. Lorsque la parité du pouvoir d'achat n'est pas parfaite, la méthode du taux courant et la méthode temporelle faussent toutes deux les résultats. Toutefois, si l'inflation excède la dévaluation de la monnaie nationale, la conversion à l'aide de la méthode temporelle donne un biais moins accentué, relation qui s'inverse lorsque la dévaluation de la monnaie nationale excède le taux d'inflation. L'auteur procède ensuite, du point de vue d'un organisme de normalisation, à l'analyse des modèles de conversion sous l'angle coûts-avantages. Les résultats indiquent que la conversion des états financiers ajustés pour tenir compte de l'inflation est habituellement la meilleure. Cette constatation découle du fait que le modèle étalon est plus informatif que les autres méthodes, et que les coûts de production de l'information se rapprochent des coûts associés à la méthode temporelle. En outre, si le taux d'inflation excède la dévaluation de la monnaie nationale, la méthode temporelle l'emporte sur celle du taux courant. L'opposé est vrai si la dévaluation de la monnaie nationale excède le taux d'inflation. Enfin, l'auteur analyse les conséquences du chapitre 1650 du Manuel de l'I.C.C.A. et en vient à la conclusion que la variante canadienne de la méthode temporelle donne lieu à un biais, même quand l'hypothèse de la parité du pouvoir d'achat est respectée.     

环境核算在美国

20世纪60年代末70年代初,环境核算作为社会核算的一部分被提了出来。美国在环境核算方面是一个积极的先行者和参与者,经济分析局1992年开始着手建立“经济环境一体化卫星账户”。本文对美国的环境核算进行综述。     

试论美国金融混业体制

先进国家已基本上采用金融混业体制。值得注意的是,不同国家的金融混业体制有着不同的特点,这些特点反映了不同国家金融业发展的特殊背景。本文将探讨美国金融混业经营体制的内容。美国从事混业经营的主体是金融持股公司,这些公司主要产生于银行持股公司。美国特有的金融规管环境孕育了大量的银行持股公司,而银行持股公司向金融持股公司的转化是美国金融业顺应全球化时代发展要求的必然结果。     

Labor productivity in the United States and the United Kingdom during the nineteenth century

A number of writers have recently questioned whether labor productivity or per capita incomes were ever higher in the United Kingdom than in the United States. This paper focuses on aggregate and sectoral labor productivity in the two countries during the nineteenth century. We build on earlier work by Broadberry to push comparative productivity estimates back to 1840 based on a time series projection from a 1910 benchmark and checked against a benchmark estimate for 1850. The results indicate that labor productivity in agriculture was broadly equal in the two countries, and that the United States had a substantial labor productivity lead in industry as early as 1840, while the United Kingdom was ahead in services. Hence aggregate labor productivity and per capita incomes were higher in the United Kingdom in the mid-nineteenth century, particularly since the United States had a larger share of the labor force in low value-added agriculture and a smaller share of the population in the labor force.     

Regime-Dependent Fiscal Multipliers in the United States

This paper proposes a regime-dependent model to estimate fiscal multipliers in the US. Output, consumption and investment are assumed to respond to tax and spending changes in a nonlinear manner. Fiscal multipliers are time-varying because their size and sign depend upon the state of the economy (upturns and downturns). Keynesian effects appear essentially during downturns, while anti-Keynesian effects are observed during expansions. Transfer payments contributes to a higher private consumption when they are given to consumers in bad times. Reducing taxes boosts consumption in good times. Investment responds positively to lower taxes during downturns, but negatively in the upturn regime. Our results thus suggest that Keynesian effects have been associated to expansionary policies during recessions, while anti-Keynesian effects were observed during expansions illustrating situations of expansionary fiscal consolidation. The effectiveness of fiscal positive impulses increases in downturns relative to upturns. A corollary is therefore that austerity measures during recessions would have detrimental effects on the GDP and its components.     

A Cointegration Model of Age-Specific Fertility and Female Labor Supply in the United States

Cointegration methods suitable for estimation and testing with nonstationary data are applied to U.S. time-series data on age-specific fertility rates, female labor force participation rates, women's wages, unemployment rates and educational attainment, and male relative incomes. Likelihood ratio tests indicate the existence of two cointegrating relations that are identified as a fertility equation and a labor supply equation, respectively. Estimated long-run relations are consistent with economic models of fertility and female labor market behavior, and these results are robust across both age-groups and several alternative model specifications.     

Intergenerational earnings mobility in Singapore and the United States

This study compared intergenerational earnings mobility in Singapore and the United States by replicating the sample criteria in the Singapore National Youth Survey on the U.S. Panel Study of Income Dynamics. The mean estimated earnings elasticities are almost identical: 0.26 in Singapore and 0.28 in the United States. Transformed to 0.44 and 0.47 respectively to reflect permanent status, mobility in the two countries is moderately low compared internationally. The finding of similar mobility is not surprising given that the two countries have similar economic realities, welfare systems, education regimes, and labor structures. Policy makers face the daunting challenge of overcoming immobility and inequality while maintaining global competitiveness.     

Saving puzzles and saving policies in the United States

In the past two decades the widely reported personal savingrate in the United States has dropped from double digits tobelow zero. First, we attempt to account for the decline inthe National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) saving rate.The macroeconomic literature suggests that 40-50 per cent ofthe drop since 1988 can be attributed to households spendingstock-market capital gains. Another 30 per cent is accountingtransfers from personal saving into government and corporatesaving because of the way pensions and capital gains taxes aretreated in the NIPA. Second, while NIPA saving measures arewell suited to measuring the supply of new funds for investmentand capital accumulation, it is not clear that they should bethe target of government saving policies. Finally, we emphasizethat the NIPA saving rate is not useful in judging whether householdsare preparing for retirement or other contingencies. Many householdshave accumulated significant wealth, primarily through retirementsaving vehicles and capital gains, even as the saving rate slid.There remains a segment of the population who save little andwhose behaviour appears untouched either by the stock-marketboom or the slide in personal saving. We explore reasons andpolicy options for their puzzling low saving rate.     

Differential Tariffs and Income Inequality in the United States: Some Evidence from the States

Open Economies Review - This paper explores the macroeconomic and distributional consequences of consumption tariffs and materials tariffs. It highlights the contrasting effects of consumption and...     

Analysis of the intertemporal behaviour of parameter estimates from a model of the United States economy

Zusammenfassung Untersuchungen der Veranderungen von Parametersch?tzungen im Zeitablauf an einem Modell der Volkswirtschaft der Vereinigten Staaten. — Prognosen aufgrund ?konometrischer Modelle erfordern eine standige Revision, um die neuesten Daten einfügen zu k?nnen. Ein etwas vernachl?ssigtes Ergebnis besteht darin, da\ dabei die Sch?tzungen der zugrunde liegenden Parameter beeinflu\t werden. Es ist das Ziel der vorliegenden Abhandlung, die zeitlichen Ver?nderungen der Parameterschatzungen eines makro-?konomischen Modells, die aufgrund verschiedener Methoden gewonnen wurden, zu untersuchen. Die Studie kommt zu dem Ergebnis, da\ die Sch?tzwerte, die aufgrund einer Sequenzanalyse erzielt wurden, ausgepr?gten Trends folgen und da\ darüber hinaus die zeitlichen Perioden, die aufgrund alternativer Sch?tzmethoden bestimmt wurden, oft erheblich voneinander abweichen.

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Résumé Analyse des changements successifs dans l’estimation des paramètres d’un modèle de l’économie des Etats-Unis. — Le pronostic à l’aide de modèles économétriques exige une révision continuelle en vue d’incorporer les données les plus récentes. Le résultat, quelque peu négligé, en est que les estimations des param\ `etres de base en sont affectées. Cet article cherche à analyser les changements successifs des paramètres d’un modèle macro-économique — estimations qui furent trouvées par de différentes méthodes. L’étude arrive à la conclusion que les estimations trouvées par une analyse séquentielle suivent des tendances prononcées et, en outre, que les périodes trouvées par de différentes méthodes diffèrent souvent sensiblement l’une de l’autre.

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Resumen Análisis de las variaciones de paráetres estimados en el tiempo, utilizando un modelo de la economía de los Estados Unidos. — Proyecciones hechas con la ayuda de modelos econométricos requieren un revisión permanente con el fin de poder introducir los datos más recientes. El problems que entonces surge, y que nos recibe siempre la debida atenci?n, consiste en que las estimaciones de los paramé-tras reaccionen de alguna mariera. El objetivo del presente trabajo es analizar la variación de estas estimaciones en el tiempo; para ello se emplea un modelo macroecon?mico estimado por diversos métodos. El resultado del anàlisis es que las estimaciones conseguidas por medio de un análisis de secuencia muestran claramente un trend; ademas se puede ver que los resultados obtenidos a través de métodos de estimaci?n alternatives difieren a menudo de modo sustancial los unos de los otros.

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Riassunto Esami delle modificazioni di stime di parametro nel decorso del tempo in un modello dell’economia degli Stati Uniti. — Prognosi in base a modelli econometrici richiedono una revisione costante per poter inserire i dati più recenti. Un risultato un po’ trascurato consiste nel fatto che con ci? sono influenzate le stime dei parametri che sono alla base. E obiettivo del presente studio di esaminare le modificazioni temporali delle stime dei parametri di un modello macroeconomico che fu ottenuto in base a metodi diversi. Lo studio perviene al risultato che i valori di stima che furono raggiunti in base ad un’analisi di sequenza seguono ?trend? marcati e che oltre a ciò i periodi temporali che furono determinati in base a metodi di stima alternativi spesso differiscono in maniera rilevante.