关于提高住宅有效购买力的几点思考

随着我国住房制度改革的推进 ,房地产业面临着前所未有的发展机遇。然而 ,几年过去了 ,我们却不得不面对住宅潜在需求和有效需求不足的尖锐矛盾。产生这一现象的原因是多方面的 ,笔者认为最主要的原因在于商品住宅价格偏高、住房金融市场发展缓慢以及住房交易市场不健全三个方面。因此 ,要使住宅产业真正成为消费热点和新的经济增长点 ,就必须努力降低现有商品住宅价格、加快住房金融市场的发展以及完善住房交易市场     

我国城镇中低收入居民保障性公共租房模式研究

近几年来,房价呈现出快速上涨的趋势。随着房价的攀升,居民的住房问题变得日益严峻。尽管已有不少研究者对于如何解决我国城镇居民的住房问题提出对策建议,但由于住房问题的长期性和我国国情的特殊性,这些对策建议还存在看诸多不足。本文借鉴了国内外经验,就如何保障我国城镇居民中低收入群体解决住房问题进行探讨,在分析影响公其租房相关因素的基础上,提出保障性公共租房模式,并进一步提出公共租房的建造流程和运营构想,以及相关注意事项和解决办法。     

Do house prices impact business starts?

At the national level, business starts and housing prices both fell dramatically over the 2007–2009 period. Using a proprietary database of business starts this paper quantitatively models the interaction between house price and business starts from 2005 to 2009. We identify the impact by exploiting the cross-sectional variation in house price changes during the period. Controlling for observable and unobservable city characteristics, we find the significance of a robust relationship between house prices and business starts depends on the size of the business starts; a robust link exists between house prices and very small business, whereas, no significant robust link is seen for large business starts.     

House price synchronization across the US states: The role of structural oil shocks

This paper analyzes the impact of disentangled oil shocks on the synchronization in housing price movements across all the US states plus DC. Using a Bayesian dynamic factor model, the house price movements are decomposed into national, regional, and state-specific factors. We then study the impact of oil-specific supply and demand, inventory accumulation, and global demand shocks on the national factor using linear and nonlinear local projection methods. The impulse response analyses suggest that oil-specific supply and consumption demand shocks are most important in driving the national factor. Moreover, as observed from the regime-specific local projection model, these two shocks are found to have a relatively stronger impact in a bearish rather than a bullish national housing market. Our results have important policy implications.     

House price risk and the hedging benefits of home ownership

Using a repeat-sales methodology, this paper finds that estimates of house price risk based on aggregate house price indices substantially underestimate the true size of house price risk. This is the result of the fact that aggregate house price indices average away the idiosyncratic volatility in house prices. Additional results show that the idiosyncratic risk exceeds the hedging benefits of home ownership. These results imply that for many home owners, owning a house may well add more price risk than it hedges away. These findings are based on a detailed dataset of individual housing transactions in the Netherlands.     

Business,housing, and credit cycles

We use multivariate unobserved components models to estimate trend and cyclical components in gross domestic product (GDP), credit volumes, and house prices for the USA and the five largest European economies. With the exception of Germany, we find large and long cycles in credit and house prices, which are highly correlated with a medium‐term component in GDP cycles. Differences across countries in the length and size of cycles appear to be related to the properties of national housing markets. The precision of pseudo real‐time estimates of credit and house price cycles is roughly comparable to that of GDP cycles.     

On the cyclicity of regional house prices: New evidence for U.S. metropolitan statistical areas

This paper is mainly concerned with the analysis of regional house price cycles. We introduce a wavelet transform based metric to study the housing cycle synchronization across the largest U.S. MSAs with a focus on the recent housing bubble. We derive several conclusions: (i) We show that regional housing cycle dissimilarities are significantly and strongly connected to geography. (ii) After the burst of the recent housing bubble there was greater significant co-movement in shorter cycles for a short period of time. (iii) Coastal regions, which have a higher house price volatility compared to other MSAs are also those with a higher degree of house supply regulation. (iv) A mortgage-rate reduction decrease the dissimilarity between the MSAs and the national housing cycle before the end of 2006 at higher frequencies. Hence, monetary policy is partially effective, whereas effectiveness depends on time, frequency, and the considered MSA.     

中国房价与地价的关系——基于相关分析和因果分析的实证研究

近年,中国房价持续迅猛上涨引发了不少讨论和争议,其中房价和地价的关系也是热点之一。本文以中国房地产为研究对象,借助SPSS16.0和Eview5.0,采用实证研究方法,对中国自1999年第一季度到2009年第四季度的房价和地价数据进行相关分析和格兰杰因果分析,揭示房价与地价的相关性和两者之间的协整关系,以及中国房价和地价在短期乃至长期相互影响的状况,为房价调控策略选择提供科学依据。     

中国房价与地价的关系——基于相关分析和因果分析的实证研究

近年,中国房价持续迅猛上涨引发了不少讨论和争议,其中房价和地价的关系也是热点之一。本文以中国房地产为研究对象,借助SPSS16．0和Eview5．0,采用实证研究方法,对中国自1999年第一季度到2009年第四季度的房价和地价数据进行相关分析和格兰杰因果分析,揭示房价与地价的相关性和两者之间的协整关系,以及中国房价和地价在短期乃至长期相互影响的状况,为房价调控策略选择提供科学依据。     

What factors drive the price–rent ratio for the housing market? A modified present-value analysis

We consider which factors determined the price–rent ratio for the housing market in 18 U.S. metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) and at the national level over the period of 1975–2014. Based on a present-value framework, our proposed empirical model separates the price–rent ratio for a given market into unobserved components related to the expected real rent growth and the expected housing return, but is modified from standard present-value analysis by also including a residual component that captures non-stationary deviations of the price–rent ratio from its present-value level. Estimates for the modified present-value model suggest that the present-value residual (PVR) component is always important and sometimes very large at the national and MSA levels, especially for MSAs that have experienced frequent booms and busts in the housing market. In further analysis, we find that house prices in MSAs that have larger PVR components are more sensitive to mortgage rate changes. These are also the MSAs with less elastic housing supply. Also, comparing our results with a recent statistical test for periodically-collapsing bubbles, we find that MSAs with large estimated PVR components are the same MSAs that test positively for explosive sub-periods in their price–rent ratios, especially during the 2005–2007 subsample. Our approach allows us to estimate the correlation between shocks to expected rent growth, the expected housing return, and the PVR component. We find that the expected housing return and movements in the PVR component are highly positively correlated implying an impact of the expected housing return on house prices that is amplified from what a standard present-value model would imply. Our results also show that most of the variation in the present-value component of the price–rent ratio arises due to the variation in the expected housing return.     

A panel data analysis for housing affordability in Taiwan

Although the equilibrium relationship between household income and house price is well documented in previous theoretical studies, the empirical results are usually unfavorable. This article examines whether a long-term relationship between house price and income exists through a panel integration and cointegration methodology in analyzing data from four cities in Taiwan from 1980 to 2007. The findings support the existence of a long-term equilibrium relationship between income and house price, which indicate that housing affordability in Taiwan is stable. After controlling other variables, the income elasticity of house prices on average is close to one. Furthermore, evidence points to a bi-directional causality between income and house price.     

城市商品住宅价格的影响因素研究——以重庆为例

在分析城市商品住宅价格影响因素的基础之上,建立商品住宅价格的计量经济模型。运用模型对重庆市主城区商品住宅价格进行的实证分析结论表明,影响重庆商品住宅价格最主要的因素是居民人均可支配收入,这与实际比较吻合。预计在未来一段时期,重庆市商品住宅价格将随城市经济的发展而稳步提高。     

房价形成机制与定量分析初探

本文探讨了房价形成机制,认为供求关系决定房价,基本面、资金面、政策面等各种影响因子通过影响有效需求和有效供给最终实现对房价趋势的作用,形成房价波动和周期规律。在此理论基础上,利用实证数据对房价定量分析模型进行研究,论述了"房价是供求比的函数"的推导过程和逻辑关系,为今后房价分析模型的研究抛砖引玉。     

Daily House Price Indices: Construction,Modeling, and Longer‐run Predictions

We construct daily house price indices for 10 major US metropolitan areas. Our calculations are based on a comprehensive database of several million residential property transactions and a standard repeat‐sales method that closely mimics the methodology of the popular monthly Case–Shiller house price indices. Our new daily house price indices exhibit dynamic features similar to those of other daily asset prices, with mild autocorrelation and strong conditional heteroskedasticity of the corresponding daily returns. A relatively simple multivariate time series model for the daily house price index returns, explicitly allowing for commonalities across cities and GARCH effects, produces forecasts of longer‐run monthly house price changes that are superior to various alternative forecast procedures based on lower‐frequency data. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Housing and the Korean economy

This paper explores the nexus between housing and the Korean economy. It starts with an overview of the size, growth, and volatility of residential investment in conjunction with long-term resource allocation and short-term macroeconomic fluctuations. Then, the evolution of housing finance and its implications for recent house price run-up are discussed. The relationships among housing price, consumer spending, and inflation are also investigated. Particular attention is paid to the debate over house price bubbles, housing wealth effects on consumption, and the causality between house price and inflation. The paper concludes with a brief assessment of government intervention to stabilize house prices.     

Commodity house prices

This paper studies how commodity price movements have affected the local house prices in commodity-dependent economies, Australia and New Zealand. We build a geographically hierarchical empirical model and find that the commodity prices influence local house prices directly and also indirectly through macroeconomic variables. The impacts of commodity price changes are analogous to “income shocks” rather than “cost shocks”. Regional heterogeneity is also observed in terms of differential dynamic responses of local house prices to energy versus non-energy commodity price movements. The results are robust to alternative approaches. Directions for future research are also discussed.     

Dissecting the myth of the house price in Chinese metropolises: allowing for behavioral heterogeneity among investors

This paper aims to demystify the housing boom in Chinese metropolises by allowing for behavioral heterogeneity among investors. We construct an agent-based model where investors are categorized into two groups: fundamentalists and chartists. In addition, the investment strategy switching is allowed between these two groups contingent on the historical performance. Using the data of five Chinese metropolises over the period 2008–2014, the results suggest that chartists dominate the housing market and make the house price maintain an upward trend, while fundamentalists play a stabilizing role. Specifically, fundamentalists can serve as a “price anchor” in the market, because the proportion of the fundamentalists is negatively associated with both the growth rate of the house price and the deviation relative to the fundamental value. Overall, the impact of the chartists on the house price is much greater than that of the fundamentalists, which contributes to the ever-increasing house price in Chinese metropolises.

     

House Price Dynamics in Mumbai, 1989–1995

The objective of this paper is to study the importance of price index methodology to analyzing intra-metropolitan house price variations in Mumbai. Two hedonic regression-based approaches – cross section and explicit time variable – are compared. The results indicate conclusively that the former is better than the latter. This paper also contributes to the literature on intra-metropolitan house price variations by explaining them based on urban development, population and employment patterns in Mumbai.     

House Prices, Housing Investment and Demography Forecasts from the LBS/Abbey National Model of the UK Housing Market

A new housing sector has been incorporated into the London Business School model. This article outlines the new housing model, summarizes the research which has gone into its construction, and presents a forecast of the UK housing market. Using the new housing model, we forecast a moderate recovery in the housing market in the later part of 1991 and 1992. This recovery is however short-lived and does not result in such high rates of house price increase as previous house price booms (Chart 1).
Cuts in interest rates following entry to the exchange rate mechanism of the EMS prompt a recovery in house prices from the middle of 1991. House price inflation then peaks with an increase in average UK house prices in 1992 of 11 per cent over the previous year. Increases in real personal disposable income are modest, by the standards of the 1980s, and for this reason the recovery does not develop the momentum of previous house price booms. House price inflation moderates again in 1993 falling back to around 7 per cent. Housing starts and housing investment recover only slightly from their present depressed levels.
the recovery in house prices is weaker than that foreseen in our April Forecast Release. This is because real personal disposable income is now forecast to grow more slowly during 1991. Sterling's membership of the ERM is followed by a fall in interest rates, but it is the timing of interest rate cuts rather than their magnitude which differs from the earlier forecast. The changed profile of interest rates has altered the house price forecast only marginally.     

城市经济对住宅价格影响研究--以35个大中城市为例

住宅市场具有很强的地域特性,不同城市由于经济发展等因素的影响,造成住宅价格具有较大的差异。将城市经济分为城市经济规模、城市产业结构和城市经济效率,以35个大中城市为例,运用静态面板数据模型研究城市经济对住宅价格的影响。结果表明,城市经济对住宅价格具有很强的正相关作用,尤其是城市经济规模和城市产业结构。城市经济规模方面,GDP、地方财政支出对住宅价格具有显著的正面影响;城市产业结构方面,第三产业增加值占GDP比重越高,住宅价格越高;城市经济效率方面,人均地方财政收入和第二、三产业增加值与建成区面积之比都对住宅价格具有显著的正相关性。因此,城市在区域经济一体化的带动下将追求创新高效率的发展,同时优化城市空间结构和产业结构,有助于住宅市场的健康发展。