Dynamics of Capital Structure: The Case of Korean Listed Manufacturing Companies*

In this paper, we develop a model of dynamic capital structure choice based on a sample of Korean manufacturing firms and estimate the unobservable optimal capital structure using a wide range of observable determinants. Unbalanced panel data of Korean listed firms for the period 1985–2002 is used. In addition to identifying and estimating the effects of the determinants of capital structure, we take into consideration some Korea‐specific features, such as the structural break before and after the financial crisis and firms’ affiliation to chaebol business groups. Our results indicate that the optimal capital structure has been affected by the financial crisis. Although the results suggest that chaebol‐affiliated firms have higher optimal level of leverage and adjust their capital structure faster than non‐chaebol firms, firms’ leverage might be associated with factors other than chaebol‐affiliation, such as size, profitability and growth opportunity.     

Foreign capital,welfare and urban unemployment in the presence of agricultural dualism

In a two sector mobile capital Harris–Todaro model, such as [Corden, W.M., Findlay, R., 1975. Urban unemployment, intersectoral capital mobility, and development policy in a dual economy. Economica 42, 59–78], an inflow of foreign capital in the presence of protectionist policy is welfare deteriorating as well as unemployment accentuating. But, the developing countries have chosen liberalized investment and trade policies as their development strategies and have been able to attract a considerable amount of foreign capital during the last two decades. A relevant question is why these countries are yearning for foreign capital given its detrimental effects as predicted by the conventional theoretical literature on trade and development. This paper makes an attempt to address the above issue in terms of a three sector Harris–Todaro model with agricultural dualism and a non-traded final commodity. In the given setup, an inflow of foreign capital is likely to improve welfare and does not necessarily worsen the problem of unemployment. The paper may also be useful to explain as to why many of the developing economies have experienced ‘jobless growth’ in the liberalized regime.     

Business groups,foreign direct investment,and capital goods trade: The import behavior of Japanese affiliates

We examine the impact of buyer–supplier relationships within business groups on capital goods trade by taking into account potential simultaneous effects of business group ties on foreign direct investment. We posit that (1) foreign affiliates of business group firms have a greater propensity to import capital goods from the home country, increasing home country exports; (2) if the establishment of overseas affiliates by business group firms attracts foreign direct investment by their capital goods suppliers, business group ties are localized and the ‘trade creating’ impact of business group ties may disappear or even be reversed. Empirical analysis of capital goods imports by 1790 manufacturing affiliates operated abroad by Japanese multinational firms, combined with information on linkages with machinery suppliers within horizontal and vertical business groups, provides broad support for these predictions. Our findings suggest that it may be incorrect to infer from the absence of a simple relationship between business group ties and trade that such ties are unimportant; instead, intra-group ties may be replicated abroad through foreign direct investment.     

Estimation of the production function with the variable utilization of capital assets in the Russian economy

The paper considers the problem of estimating aggregate production functions taking into account the variable utilization rate of the capital assets that act as an unobservable variable for the macro and meso levels. The proposed approach is based on the microeconomic foundations of the producer’s behavior with the appropriate modification of the problem on optimizing the volumes of production inputs and outputs. Parameter estimates have been given for the Cobb–Douglas-type production function and the performance of the utilization rate of the capital assets in Russian economy over 2002–2014. The high statistical dependence of the performance of investment in fixed capital on changes in the utilization rate of the capital assets has been revealed.     

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS ON THE URBAN–RURAL DISPARITY IN HUMAN CAPITAL IN CHINA

With China's economic development and capital accumulation in the industrial sectors, the human capital level of the labours moving from the rural areas could no longer meet the demand of the industrial sectors. Therefore, “structural shortage of technical labour” emerged in the labour market as a result of excess of demand for high‐skilled workers. Previous literature mostly focused on the relationship between rural human‐capital level and labour movement, income change and economic growth, but in this article, the authors focus on the study of the relative disparity of urban and rural human capital and labour movement, as well as the effect of the change of urban–rural human capital gap on industrial output, profit and social welfare. This article shows that bridging the urban–rural gap in respect of human capital level could not only improve the situation of the “structural shortage of technical labour,” but also have a positive effect on the general social welfare.     

New perspectives on the contribution of sanitary investments to mortality decline in English cities, 1845–1909

Health improved in English cities in the last third of the nineteenth century, in tandem with substantial increases in public spending on water supplies and sanitation. However, previous efforts to measure the contribution of public expenditures to mortality improvements have been hampered by difficulties in quantifying public health investments and the lack of mortality data for specifically urban populations. We improve upon the existing evidence base by (1) creating measures of the stock of urban district sanitary capital, by type, on the basis of capital expenditure flows, rather than loan stocks; (2) using mortality and capital stock data that relate to the same administrative units (urban districts), and (3) studying the period 1880–1909 as well as the earlier period from 1845. The stock of sewerage capital was robustly related to improvements in all-cause mortality after 1880. The size of this effect varied with the extent of public investment in water supplies, suggesting complementarity between the two assets. For the period 1845–84, investments in water were associated with declines in infant and child mortality but the effect was much smaller and less precisely estimated in later decades. Our results suggest that improvements in water and sewerage targeted different transmission pathways for faecal–oral diseases.     

Shareholder rights and share capital: the effect of the 1901 Russian Corporation Reform, 1890–1905

During the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, western European countries introduced general incorporation and additional flexible enterprise forms, but the Russian Empire left its concession system of incorporation in place. The Empire's only major corporation reform, the 1901 law, strengthened minority shareholder rights and removed bankers from boards of directors for certain corporations. The reform offers a rare opportunity to examine the financial effects of improving corporations’ principal–agent relationships through regulation, because the reform did not affect all corporations equally. Corporations affected by the reform had smaller total share capital, fewer shares, and higher par values for shares as observed in 1905. The new regulations may have increased the cost of having shareholders and hence disciplined corporations’ founders to be more conservative in raising capital by issuing stock. Removing bankers from boards of directors may have removed an important source of firms’ founding capital, though corporations could easily evade this provision. The results also show that, although the commercial code treated all corporations equally, there were two major groups of Russian corporations that behaved differently, and, despite the fact that corporate charters could grant individual exceptions to the commercial code, a revision in the commercial code changed corporations’ behaviour.     

Do Capital Inflows Matter to Asset Prices? The Case of Korea*

In the present paper, we investigate whether capital flows induce domestic asset price hikes in the case of Korea. This issue is relevant for crisis‐hit economies trying to prevent a boom–bust cycle as well as in the formulation of macroeconomic policy objectives in emerging market economies. Korea has recently experienced large capital inflows, in particular a surge in portfolio inflows. Furthermore, asset prices, including stock prices, land prices and nominal and real exchange rates, have also appreciated. The empirical results, obtained using a vector autoregression model, suggest that capital inflow shocks have caused stock prices but not land prices to increase. The effects on the nominal and real exchange rates have been limited, which relates to the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves.     

Why do Japanese regional banks issue subordinated debts?

This paper empirically investigates the determinants of subordinated debt issuance by Japanese regional banks during the period of 2000–2007 using a probit model. The empirical results suggest the following. (i) Throughout the period, Japanese regional banks with a lower capital ratio tended to have a higher incentive to issue subordinated debts due possibly to their counting as Tier 2 capital under the Basel Accord. (ii) During the period of banking instability (2000–2003), subordinated debt investors tended to use financial variables such as the non-performing loan ratio, ROA, and ROE to screen good banks. (iii) During the period after the banking system regained stability (2004–2007), investors tended to pay less attention to the above variables due chiefly to the mitigated default risk of these banks.     

On the Structure,Dynamics, and Use of the Asset Share in the National Wealth

In this article, the share of assets in the national wealth is taken as the object of analysis and forecast. The dynamics, structure and use of the basic elements of Russia’s productive assets—natural capital (energy inputs), human capital, and active fixed assets—are analyzed. It is shown that the natural capital will inevitably be replaced by human capital in combination with the asset share in fixed capital, and that the economy in the coming transition period (2018–2030) will necessarily transform to an innovative growth model.The annual balances of changes in the components of the assets in the national wealth for 2012–2016 are developed. The impact of the crisis is estimated. Some promising directions for using the accumulated human capital together with the asset share in fixed capital for a transition from a resource-based to an innovation model of Russia’s development are considered and substantiated.     

Human capital estimates in China: New panel data 1985–2010

We introduce new provincial level panel data on human capital in China from 1985 to 2010. Our estimation of human capital is based on the Jorgenson–Fraumeni lifetime income approach modified to fit the Chinese data, thereby allowing a more comprehensive measurement of human capital than traditional partial measurements, such as education. Our provincial data are adjusted for purchasing power parity via a living-cost index as well as for real values so that all values are comparable across the provinces and time. We discuss various characteristics of the data, including total human capital, per capita human capital, and labor force human capital, which in turn are disaggregated based on gender and urban or rural location. Our human capital estimates are compared with the provincial physical capital estimates and provincial GDP. As an illustration, we also use the data to estimate a production function and to decompose China's economic growth from physical capital, human capital, and TFP. Our results, compared with those that use traditional specifications, reassure us as to the reliability of our new China human capital data.     

CURRENCY CRISES IN EMERGING MARKETS: THE CASE OF POST‐LIBERALIZATION TURKEY

This article investigates the determinants of currency crises in Turkey. It analyzes the two major currency crises of 1994 and 2000–2001 in the light of the existing theoretical models. The present study uses logit, probit, and limited dependent models to explain the currency crises in the post–capital account liberalization era. The results obtained from the three approaches are generally consistent and the coefficients obtained for the explanatory variables generally have the same sign. The findings suggest that the currency crises in Turkey are associated with global liquidity conditions, fiscal imbalances, capital outflows, and banking sector weaknesses.     

Is working capital management value-enhancing through alleviating financial constraints? Evidence from Chinese non-listed firms

Financial factors have been found highly important in influencing firms’ real activities and in promoting aggregate growth. Yet, the linkage between finance and firm-level total factor productivity (TFP) has been overlooked in the literature. I fill this gap using 147,310 non-listed Chinese firms over the period 1999–2007 to estimate a TFP model augmented with working capital. I find that TFP is strongly and significantly associated with working capital for private and foreign firms, but not for SOEs. More specifically, an increase in working capital has a negative (positive) effect on TFP in firms with positive (negative) working capital. Furthermore, highly external financial constrained, highly internal financial constrained, under-developed institutional regions and small size private and foreign firms are more sensitive to working capital.     

Intergenerational transfer of human capital and its impact on income mobility: Evidence from China

This paper analyzes theoretically and empirically the impact of intergenerational transmission of human capital on the income mobility in China. We use a three-period overlapping-generations (OLG) model to show that the human capital transfer plays a remarkable role in determining the parent-to-offspring investment in human capital and the intergenerational elasticity of income. We then estimate a simultaneous equations model (SEM) using the 1989–2009 China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) data to verify our theoretical predictions. The results show that (i) human capital, measured by health and education, is directly transmitted from one generation to the next, reflecting the parent-induced inequality of development opportunities among offspring in China; (ii) the estimated intergenerational income elasticity increases from 0.429 to 0.481 when the direct transfer of human capital is accounted for, suggesting that omitting this mechanism would overestimate China's income mobility. Our findings provide policy implications on strengthening human capital investments among the disadvantaged groups, reinforcing reforms that promote equality of opportunity, and improving the efficiency of labor markets in China.     

Indonesia's Ascent on the Technology Ladder: Capital Stock and Total Factor Productivity in Indonesian Manufacturing, 1975–95

This paper presents new capital stock estimates for mium and large-scale manufacturing in Indonesia using the Perpetual Inventory Method. Capital stock grew gradually during 1975–88, at an annual rate of 7.6%, then boomed during 1989–95 at 13.6% per annum. Growth accounting shows that 60% of the rapid growth of manufacturing output during the period 1975–95 was due to capital input growth, 18% to labour input growth and the remaining 22% to total factor productivity (TFP) growth. There is no evidence of a shift of factor inputs towards more efficient industries. TFP growth averaged 3% annually in 1975–95. Performance varied greatly across industries, but the policy changes that have taken effect since 1986 have definitely been beneficial for all industries. Put in an international perspective, however, Indonesia's TFP levels show no signs of catch-up with the world frontier.     

Labour-Market Outcomes of Older Workers in the Netherlands: Measuring Job Prospects Using the Occupational Age Structure

This paper analyses changes in job opportunities of older workers in the Netherlands in the period 1996–2010. The standard human capital model predicts that, as a result of human capital obsolescence, mobility becomes more costly when workers become older. We measure and interpret how changing job opportunities across 96 occupations affect different age and skill groups. Older workers end up in shrinking occupations, in occupations with a lower share of high-skilled workers, in occupations facing a higher threat of offshoring tasks abroad, more focus on routine-intensive tasks and less rewarding job content. This process is not only observed for the oldest group of workers, but for workers aged 40 and above. Observing older workers in declining occupations is to a large extent a market outcome, but declining job opportunities in terms of less satisfying working conditions and job tasks and content could potentially raise incentives to retire early.     

The determinants of income inequality in Thailand: A synthetic cohort analysis

This paper presents tests and estimates of the human capital model of income inequality using synthetic cohort data for Thailand: 1992–2011. The model focuses on four primary determinants of income inequality: mean per capita income levels, the variances in years of education, in the number of children, and in the number of earners in the household. All of these factors are important sources of income inequality in Thailand, with relative impacts that differ across demographic groups and types of household structure. An inverted-U relation between mean per capita income levels and inequality is found, reflecting gender differences of the head of household, differences in household composition, and variation in access to finance. Although the human capital model emphasizes education, estimates presented here show other household characteristics, such as number of children and number of earners, can be even more important sources of inequality.     

Saving,investment, and capital mobility among OECD countries

Historically investigations of the international mobility of capital have studied rates of return on similar assets denominated in different currencies. Recently, however, efforts directed at ascertaining the degree of international capital mobility have examined the relationship between domestic saving and investment rates. The first approach assesses the mobility of groups of financial assets which represent the existing capital stock while the latter actually scrutinizes the mobility of new physical capital.This paper employs the second approach in a times series study of capital mobility among OECD countries. Implementation of four different tests of the saving-investment relationship suggest that physical capital is more mobile than previous studies have indicated.     

Health investment,physical capital accumulation,and economic growth

This paper analyzes the effect of health investment, and hence of health capital, on physical capital accumulation and long-run economic growth in an extended Ramsey model with an Arrow–Romer production function and a Grossman (1972) utility function. The paper concludes that economic growth is related to both the health growth rate and the health level. While growth in health capital always facilitates economic growth, the gross effect of health level on the rate of economic growth depends on how it affects physical capital accumulation. If the negative effect of health on economic growth through its influence on physical capital accumulation is not taken into consideration, then health level has a positive effect on the rate of economic growth by improving the efficiency of labor production. However, since health investment may crowd out physical capital investment and thus influence physical capital accumulation, excessive investment in health may have a negative effect on economic growth. Empirical tests of these theoretical hypotheses using panel data from individual provinces of China produce results that are consistent with our theoretical conclusions.     

Were capital flows the culprit in the Weimar economic crisis?

This paper examines the role of capital flows in the interwar German economy. We use a calibrated model of sudden stops as our analytical framework and derive four key findings. First, capital flows aggravated the boom–bust cycle of the Weimar economy. Second, these flows were strongly associated—during different periods—with reparations, conditions in the US capital market, and German domestic events. Third, capital flows before 1930 allowed Germany to pay reparations on credit and thus postponed the hour of reckoning when that debt had to be serviced using trade surpluses. Fourth, the German economic downturn in 1931 was due more to capital flows than to productivity shocks or reparations.