收入转移对中国城市贫困与收入分配的影响

本文利用14个城市调查资料的测定结果表明，中国城市贫困发生率在10鬈左右。高失业率和社会保障体系不完善是造成城市贫困问题恶化的重要原因。收入转移、特别是公共收入转移对减缓城市贫困和收入不平等具有显著作用。在快速经济转型过程中，通过扩大和促进就业、完善社会保障体系等政策措施，对治理城市贫困具有非常重要的现实意义。     

Remittance Income Volatility and Labor Supply in Mexico

Using the 2000 through 2008 waves of the Encuesta Nacional de Ingresos y Gastos de los Hogares (ENIGH), Mexico's income and expenditure survey, we estimate the way in which volatility surrounding the inflows of international remittances impacts male and female labor supply. We find that male and female labor supply decreases with higher levels of remittance income. Additionally, increases in remittance income volatility raise the employment likelihood of men and women, as well as the hours worked by employed women. Since men are more likely than women to be employed full‐time, women may be better suited to respond to increased volatility in remittance income by raising the number of hours worked. Overall, the findings are suggestive of labor supply being used as a buffer against income shortfalls and increased volatility in remittance inflows.     

Income Strategies Among Rural Households in Mexico: The Role of Off-farm Activities

Off-farm activities generate on average more than half of farm households' incomes in the Mexican ejido sector. Participation in these activities helps reduce poverty and contributes to greater equality in the distribution of income. This paper analyzes the determinants of access to off-farm sources of income across households. We find that education plays a major role in accessing better remunerated nonagricultural employment. Adults of indigenous ethnic origin suffer from an educational lag and have less access to off-farm nonagricultural employment than non-indigenous adults at identical educational levels. The regional availability of off-farm employment strongly affects participation. In addition, women are differentially limited by distance to urban centers in their ability to gain off-farm employment.     

货币政策不确定性与企业现金持有——现金股利视角的新解释

研究利用中国A股上市公司样本,系统探讨了货币政策不确定性对企业现金持有策略的影响.研究发现:随着货币政策不确定性的提高,企业现金持有水平降低.深入研究发现货币政策不确定性对企业现金持有策略的影响主要通过现金股利渠道发挥作用,即在货币政策不确定性较高时期,企业持有的现金更多用于支持现金股利分配,籍此向市场传递积极信号.进一步研究排除了投资机会与代理成本等潜在干扰因素的影响,并且结合产权性质差异的分析发现货币政策不确定性对于非国有企业现金持有策略的影响更为明显.研究一方面基于不确定性视角为货币政策如何影响企业现金管理策略提出了新解释——现金股利渠道,有助于更好地理解我国上市公司的现金持有策略;另一方面也说明货币政策频繁调整所导致的货币政策不确定性很可能是加剧实体经济经营风险的宏观诱因.     

Extended Dividend,Cash Flow,and Residual Income Valuation Models: Accounting for Deviations from Ideal Conditions*

Previous empirical studies derive the standard equity valuation models (i.e., DDM, RIM, and DCF model) while assuming that ideal conditions, such as infinite payoffs and clean surplus accounting, exist. Because these conditions are rarely met, we extend the standard models by following the fundamental principle of financial statement articulation. We then empirically test the extended models by employing two sets of forecasts: (1) the analyst forecasts provided by Value Line, and (2) the forecasts generated by cross‐sectional regression models. The main result is that our extended models yield considerably smaller valuation errors. Moreover, by constructing these models, we obtain identical value estimates across the extended models. By reestablishing empirical equivalence under nonideal conditions, our approach provides a benchmark that enables us to quantify the errors caused by individual deviations from ideal conditions and thus to analyze the robustness of the standard models. Finally, by providing a level playing field for the different valuation models, our findings have implications for other empirical approaches, for example, estimating the implied cost of capital.     

农村劳动力转移对农民增收贡献的实证分析

从改革开放以来农民收入来源变化与构成特点分析,可以发现在农民人均纯收入构成中,通过非农就业所获得的收入已成为农民人均纯收入增长的主体,其中通过劳动力转移形成的工资性收入对农民人均纯收入增长的贡献最大。因此,积极鼓励和引导农村劳动力转移,是促进农民增收最直接、最有效的现实选择。     

Conditional Cash Transfer and School Outcomes: An Evaluation of the Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino Program in Davao Oriental,Philippines

The present study adds to the empirical literature examining the effects of conditional cash transfers on school outcomes. Using school‐level and student‐level enrolment data from Davao Oriental Philippines, we evaluate the influence of the Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino Program (also known as 4Ps), a social development policy program, on the growth rates in school enrolment outcomes. The findings show that 4Ps, on average, increased school enrolment of children by 1.12 percent. It was also apparent that using student‐level data as opposed to school‐level data revealed a more robust effect of 4Ps on school outcomes. We also found some school and socioeconomic characteristics influencing the change in school enrolments. Finally, this study highlights the role of government intervention programs in improving access to education in the poorest sector of the economy.     

Discriminatory Procurement Policy with Cash Limits

This paper presents a counterexample to the Miyagiwa ((1991) American Economic Review 81, 1320–1328) claim that discriminatory government procurement policy is ineffective as a protectionist device, when the goods are also consumed by the private sector. The procurement sector is a homogeneous product Cournot–Nash duopoly, with a home and a foreign firm. The procurement policy takes the form of an ad valorem premium over the import price. If both the firms play the output game in strategic complements, procurement policy can lower imports. This possibility arises when the product demand is unit elastic, corresponding to cash limits to public expenditure, and providing the home firm is smaller than the foreign firm. By adding a competitive export sector, the paper also derives sufficient conditions for macroeconomic coordination failures to occur.     

Technology Transfer,Income Distribution and the Process of Economic Development

This paper studies the role of income distribution and technology transfer in the process of economic development. A novel aspect of the model is that the composition of human capital as well as the level affect economic growth. Utilizing an overlapping-generations model in which income distribution changes endogenously, we present an economic explanation for why some countries could not start modern economic growth; why some countries took off but have apparently stopped growing after some time; and why some countries have successfully developed and continue to grow.     

Regime-Dependent Fiscal Multipliers in the United States

This paper proposes a regime-dependent model to estimate fiscal multipliers in the US. Output, consumption and investment are assumed to respond to tax and spending changes in a nonlinear manner. Fiscal multipliers are time-varying because their size and sign depend upon the state of the economy (upturns and downturns). Keynesian effects appear essentially during downturns, while anti-Keynesian effects are observed during expansions. Transfer payments contributes to a higher private consumption when they are given to consumers in bad times. Reducing taxes boosts consumption in good times. Investment responds positively to lower taxes during downturns, but negatively in the upturn regime. Our results thus suggest that Keynesian effects have been associated to expansionary policies during recessions, while anti-Keynesian effects were observed during expansions illustrating situations of expansionary fiscal consolidation. The effectiveness of fiscal positive impulses increases in downturns relative to upturns. A corollary is therefore that austerity measures during recessions would have detrimental effects on the GDP and its components.