Information Asymmetry and Corporate Liquidity Management: Evidence from Real Estate Investment Trusts

We examine the impact of information asymmetry on a firm??s choice between cash and credit lines for corporate liquidity management using a panel data set from real estate investment trusts (REITs). Information asymmetry, as measured by analyst forecast error and dispersion, is negatively related to the use of lines of credit. Specifically, firms with more severe information asymmetry are less likely to have access to bank credit lines. Concurrently, more transparent firms are more likely to utilize bank credit lines as opposed to cash for liquidity management. The results are robust to alternative information asymmetry proxies and specifications. These findings suggest that information asymmetry plays an important role in corporate liquidity management.     

Real liquidity and banking

In an economy where banks take numeraire goods, so called money, as deposits, money allows depositors suffering preference shocks to withdraw from banks prematurely without liquidation of real investment. If real liquidity, defined as the real value of the monetary base, is low, the amount of payment liquidity, constrained by the velocity of money, limits the short-term price level of investment goods before banks can settle their long-term loan contracts. This leads to an attractive nominal long-term investment return and over-investment. Allowing for inside money, that is, bank deposits, to be used for payment can improve social welfare but cannot fully resolve the liquidity shortage problem as the short-term interest rate offered by banks is constrained by the threat of bank runs. In the presence of systemic liquidity shocks, the price-adjustment mechanism cannot take full effects with insufficient payment liquidity, which can lead to non-zero profits for banks. Exchanging investment goods for numeraire goods through international trade can improve social welfare.     

土地资产价格波动与经济中的流动性供给——基于以地融资视角的研究

本文通过构建理论模型探讨土地资产价格波动与流动性供给之间的关系。在本文模型中,土地兼具生产资本与抵押资产属性,银行贷款同时受到投资需求、抵押品价值与信贷额度的约束。本文主要结论是:(1)土地资产价格在低于一个由基础货币供给决定的临界值后,能影响企业的抵押品价值并反映投资需求变化,故而与存款货币流动性供给正相关。这也使土地资产价格变化与企业杠杆周期一致且具有“预期自我实现”特征。(2)基础货币供给能够通过影响土地的流动性价值的方式来引导土地资产价格,前提是央行可掌握土地资产价格外生变化的原因。(3)信贷资产证券化会提高存款货币供给与土地价格的关联度,但也会削弱基础货币供给对土地价格的引导能力。本文的研究有助于认识土地资产价格与货币政策效果以及系统性金融风险的关联机制,为房地产调控政策提供启示。     

Treasury Safety,Liquidity, and Money Premium Dynamics: Evidence from Debt Limit Impasses

Treasury securities enjoy a “money premium” because they are ultra-safe and liquid. However, during debt limit impasses, the safety and liquidity of Treasury securities temporarily deteriorate, eroding the money premium. Using past impasses, we find the money premium eroded by roughly six basis points across all Treasury securities and up to 50 basis points for the shortest maturities at the greatest risk of a delayed principal payment. Safety and liquidity each accounted for about half of the erosion. The deterioration of safety and liquidity also appears to interact, consistent with theories of default-driven liquidity risk and the information sensitivity of debt.     

A flow-based corporate credit model

The main purpose of this paper is to develop a flow-based corporate credit model. This model can concurrently and endogenously generate a firm’s multi-period probabilities of liquidity crunch and expected liquidity shortfalls. This study builds a state-dependent internal liquidity model that incorporates both systematic and idiosyncratic shocks into corporate internal liquidity dynamics. The flow-based credit model differs from structural form credit models in that it considers a flow-based insolvency rather than a stock-based one, and has a potential to capture short-term credit information. Additionally, it differs from both reduced form and traditional accounting-based bankruptcy prediction models in that it is able to provide multi-period expected liquidity shortfalls endogenously.     

美国货币政策对中国信贷市场的溢出效应研究

本文使用向量自回归误差修正模型(VECM)研究了美国货币政策对中国信贷市场的溢出性影响。研究发现,美国货币政策可以通过影响中国的信贷市场而作用于中国内生的广义货币供给。宽松的美国货币政策对中国信贷供给有正向影响。美元流动性通过该机制形成了对中国过剩流动性的溢出效应。在后危机时代,我们需要对美国货币政策可能的调整进行前瞻性的应对。     

钱荒现象与农村合作银行信贷运行的风险控制

2013年6月以来,全国商业银行流动性风险加剧,“钱荒”现象席卷全国.各银行间的传统业务竞争更趋激烈,揽存抢钱苗头显现.本轮“钱荒”是多重因素相互作用、效力叠加的结果.钱荒折射出金融的异化.农合行要强化自身抵御各种风险的能力,从强化流动性风险管控、合理配比资产负债结构、强化信贷结构调整,加强票据业务自查、区别对待新进客户授信四个方面入手,做好信贷运行风险控制,确保信贷资产的安全.     

融资流动性与债券资产流动性的互动特征——基于MS-VAR模型的时变分析

依据2015-2021年货币市场和债券市场的时间序列数据,运用MS-VAR探究了不同违约风险环境下融资流动性与债券资产流动性间的互动关系。研究发现：无论是利率债还是信用债,其资产流动性与货币市场的融资流动性存在互为正反馈的流动性螺旋。此外,两类流动性间的互动特征存在非对称性和异质性,在风险时期,融资流动性与利率债资产流动性互动特征比较明显,而在平稳时期,融资流动性与信用债资产流动性互动特征比较明显。     

信息不对称与企业债券信用风险估价——基于2008-2011年中国企业债券数据

企业债券发行者与投资者之间的信息不对称,导致投资者因为承担更大的风险而要求更高的回报,从而推高企业债券发行者的信用利差。本文利用2008年12月31日至2011年12月31日中国非上市企业债券数据,实证检验企业债券发行者和投资者之间的信息不对称对企业债券信用利差的影响。我们发现,企业债券发行者和投资者之间的信息不对称程度与企业债券信用利差之间存在显著的正相关性。同时,本文构建了包含信息不对称的企业债券信用风险估价模型。与传统的BS估价模型相比,本文构建的估价模型能更好地拟合实际信用利差。     

Asset Prices,Liquidity, and Monetary Policy in an Exchange Economy

I formulate a model in which money coexists with equity shares on a risky aggregate endowment. Agents can use equity as a means of payment, so shocks to equity prices translate into aggregate liquidity shocks that disrupt the mechanism of exchange. I characterize a family of optimal monetary policies and find that the resulting equity prices are independent of monetary considerations. I also study a perturbation of the family of optimal policies that targets a positive constant nominal interest rate and find that in this case the real equity return includes a liquidity return that depends on monetary considerations.     

Risk and concentration in payment and securities settlement systems

What drives the intraday patterns of settlement in payment and securities settlement systems? Using a model of the strategic interaction of participants in these systems to capture some stylized facts about the Federal Reserve's Fedwire funds and securities systems, this paper identifies three factors that influence a participant's decision on when to send transactions intraday: cost of intraday liquidity, extent of settlement risk, and system design. With these factors, the model can make predictions regarding the impact of policy on the concentration of transactions, amount of intraday overdrafts, central bank credit exposure, costs to system participants, and other risks.     

Liquidity and information asymmetry considerations in corporate takeovers

ABSTRACT

We examine how stock market liquidity and information asymmetry considerations influence the wealth effects of Mergers and Acquisitions (M&As). We present a simple model predicting that M&As of listed targets that have relatively illiquid stocks are profitable for acquirers due to (a) the weak bargaining power of the targets’ shareholders, and (b) the limited information asymmetry concerns when evaluating takeover synergies. Our results show that cash-financed M&As of listed targets that have relatively illiquid stocks are associated with an increase in acquirer risk-adjusted returns. These gains are equivalent to those realized from comparable private target M&As. When engaging in stock-financed listed-target M&As, acquirers with liquid stocks enjoy significant gains when the targets have relatively illiquid stocks. This result holds especially when the deal is announced during periods of deterioration in the overall stock market liquidity. Lastly, we find that liquidity considerations affect the acquirer’s choice of the target firm’s listing status, as well as the M&A method of payment.     

Market-specific and currency-specific risk during the global financial crisis: Evidence from the interbank markets in Tokyo and London

This paper investigates how international money markets reflected credit and liquidity risk during the global financial crisis. After matching the currency denomination, we examine how the Tokyo Interbank Offered Rate (TIBOR) was synchronized with the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR). We find remarkably asymmetric responses in market-specific and currency-specific risk during the crisis. The regression results suggest that market-specific credit risk increased the difference across markets, whereas liquidity risk caused the difference across currency denominations. They also support the view that liquidity shortage of the US dollar occurred in international money markets during the crisis. Coordinated central bank liquidity provisions were useful in reducing the liquidity shortage of the US dollar, but their effectiveness was asymmetric across markets.     

Information flow between the stock and option markets: Where do informed traders trade?

This paper investigates the flow of information between the equity and options markets. We argue that informed traders, in deciding where to place their trades, are not entirely indifferent to option moneyness, degree of information asymmetry, and option liquidity. Unlike some previous studies that find information to flow unilaterally from equity to options markets, we control for the above factors and discover feedback relations between trades in out-of-the-money (OTM) options and the underlying equities. The finding is consistent with the pooling equilibrium hypothesis, which asserts that informed traders trade in both the equity and options markets. Some informed traders are probably attracted to the out-of-the money options because of their higher liquidity, lower premiums, and higher delta-to-premium ratios, hence, lending support to the liquidity and leverage hypothesis.     

Quantitative easing in an open economy—Not a liquidity but a reserve trap

Expansionary monetary policy is ineffective in a liquidity trap. In another case, which we call a “reserve trap,” money supply increase is trapped in bank reserves; there is no credit expansion through the banking system. In such case, quantitative easing (QE) will not boost credit to the real sector and revitalize the economy. To analyze a reserve trap, we modify the open economy model to include multiple interest rates. Trade is included since exports can be financed externally even during domestic credit constriction. We show the conditions under which QE can lead to currency depreciation and trigger an export-led recovery.     

The Federal Reserve and the 2007–2009 Financial Crisis: Treating a Virus with Antibiotics? Evidence from the Commercial Paper Market

The two main explanations for the crisis in the commercial paper (CP) market are credit concerns and liquidity issues. The CP market is not homogeneous in terms of credit quality, maturities and types of issues. We find that lower credit‐quality CP suffered more during the crisis. Additionally, we find little evidence that Federal Reserve (Fed) liquidity facilities reduced the impact of the crisis, but that when the Fed became a lender in the CP market, the crisis pressures were dramatically reduced. We conclude that the crisis in the money markets is related more to increases in credit risk. Liquidity is a secondary issue.     

The effect of liquidity and solvency risk on the inclusion of bond covenants

Studies have analyzed the impact of firm and issue characteristics but not liquidity and solvency components of financial distress on the use of bond covenants. Using a comprehensive database of corporate bonds from 2001 to 2012, we find that firm liquidity, measured by standardized Lambda, has a negative statistical and economic impact on the inclusion of all categories and sub-categories of restrictive bond covenants. Developed from financial statement information by Emery and Lyons (1991), Lambda is designed as a coverage ratio that, under certain distribution assumptions, maps into the probability of a firm being unable to pay its short-term bills. The strongest solvency proxy is the 10-year credit default swap (CDS) spread which is significant across the categories and sub-categories for investment and payment covenants, weakly significant for the subordinated debt sub-category of the subsequent financing covenant, but strongly significant for the control poison put sub-category of event covenants. This evidence supports a model that uses SLambda as a proxy for liquidity risk and the 10-year CDS spread as a proxy for solvency risk. The liquidity/covenant relationship is dampened when firms have access to commercial paper funding or bank loans. However, during the recent financial crisis liquidity event this liquidity/covenant relationship was enhanced especially for firms which were dependent on commercial paper during this time when the commercial paper market was deteriorating.     

移动支付对中国家庭储蓄率的影响

中国的高储蓄问题由来已久,降低家庭储蓄率、提高消费有助于形成以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局。本文基于2017年和2019年中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据,实证研究了移动支付对中国家庭储蓄率的影响。结果表明,移动支付显著降低了家庭储蓄率。进一步研究发现,缓解流动性约束、信贷约束和扩大社会网络是移动支付降低家庭储蓄率的主要途径。此外,移动支付显著降低家庭为应对健康风险、医疗风险、失业风险、收入风险等不确定性而进行的预防性储蓄。地区异质性分析显示,移动支付对家庭储蓄率的影响在西部地区、四五线城市、农村地区更大。家庭特征异质性分析显示,移动支付对家庭储蓄率的影响在农业户口家庭、中低收入家庭、低受教育水平家庭中效果更加突出。本文研究为理解中国高储蓄问题提供了新的视角,可为制定相关政策提供参考依据。     

Illiquidity in the Interbank Payment System Following Wide‐Scale Disruptions

We show how the interbank payment system can become illiquid following wide‐scale disruptions. Two forces are at play in such disruptions—operational problems and changes in participants’ behavior. If the disruption is large enough, hits a key geographic area, or hits a “too‐big‐to‐fail” participant, then the smooth processing of payments can break down, and central bank intervention might be required to reestablish the socially efficient equilibrium. The paper provides a theoretical framework to analyze the effects of events such as the September 11 attack. In addition, the model can be reinterpreted to analyze shocks to fundamentals that affect the parameters of the intraday liquidity management game. We demonstrate this by showing how processing behavior changed in response to heightened credit risk at the time of the Lehman Brothers failure.     

媒体报道的信息中介作用:来自我国银行授信的证据

本文基于中国上市公司的媒体报道数据,实证检验了媒体报道对企业获取银行授信的影响。研究发现,在整体上,新闻媒体发挥了重要的信息中介作用;媒体关注度越高、正面报道倾向越强,企业越容易获取银行授信。进一步研究表明,媒体报道对银行授信的作用主要存在于非国有企业、市场化程度高的地区和资产负债率高的企业中;媒体报道对银行授信的影响存在一定的中长期效应;与负面报道相比,媒体正面报道在银行授信中的作用更为显著。本文不仅丰富了媒体报道与银行授信领域的研究,而且为新闻媒体信息中介作用的有效发挥提供了政策启示。