INTERNATIONAL AVERAGE PRICES AND COMPARISONS OF NATIONAL AGGREGATE PRODUCTION OF AGRICULTURE

"The whole question of making inter-spatial comparisons between countries is a most complicated and hazardous business" (Mr. Campion); international comparisons of a particular value aggregate between countries present a difficult problem connected with the conversion of national value aggregates into a comparable magnitude. This paper presents an alternative approach in that an internationally comparable value aggregate for each country is prepared by the international average prices of commodities which are determined simultaneously with the partial exchange rates of national currencies to a standard currency. The calculated partial exchange rates are so defined as to reflect the purchasing power of national currencies in respect of the group of commodities selected. Consequently, the resulting value aggregate for international comparison has a quantity dimension, eliminating the effect due to the different purchasing power of national currencies in which original prices are quoted. The other methods of international comparison so far being used by other research workers, such as C. Clerk and M. Gilbert and his associates, are examined in the light of the properties of the present method and the crucial differences are delineated. Using the method proposed, an international comparison is made of the aggregate value of agricultural products for 11 selected countries in the world, with sub-divisions into two regions.     

THE INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF CONSUMPTION LEVEL CARRIED OUT BY THE POLISH CENTRAL STATISTICAL OFFICE

1. The problems presented have arisen in practice when carrying out international comparisons of national income and its elements between the CMEA countries. Some rough conclusions are drawn from the nearly completed comparison of consumption level between Poland and Austria. 2. The basic methodological principles of the comparison were similar to the methods used by the group of economists directed by Milton Gilbert and Irving Kravis in their comparison relating to Western European countries. However, a number of new problems have emerged in the course of our work which required practical and theoretical solutions. Some differences in theoretical approach between the Gilbert-Kravis study and ours are discussed. Gilbert and Kravis based their comparison as far as possible on average prices of commodity groups or quantity data, and price indexes for representative goods were applied only as a practical necessity. On the contrary in our study we based our calculation mainly on representative goods and their price relation as this method, in our opinion, takes into account quality differences, which escape from the picture in the Gilbert-Kravis method. 3. Some special theoretical and practical problems of comparisons between countries having market economies and those with planned economies are presented in terms of the example of the comparison of consumption levels between Austria and Poland. Three groups of questions are pointed out: (1) the problem of the definition and boundaries of the aggregates compared; (2) the problem of differences in pricing in the groups of products and services compared, resulting from the social policy of the government concerned; and (3) the problem of differences arising from general price policies in the countries compared. 4. At the end of the paper it is suggested that it would be useful to work out a “statistical information system”, which would make possible detailed comparisons of the volume of consumption among several countries and groups of countries without the need of conducting direct comparisons between each pair of countries.     

OUTPUT AND PRICES IN THE INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON PROJECT*

In this paper we discuss a few of the problems that have been encountered in defining output and in comparing prices for the International Comparison Project (ICP). We report also on the way in which these problems are being met. The ICP has for its purpose the establishment of a systematic set of procedures for making international comparisons of gross domestic product (GDP) and of the purchasing power of currencies. Substantive work on comparisons involving Colombia, the European Economic Community (EEC), Hungary, India, Japan, Kenya, the United Kingdom and the United States is also being carried on with the aid of the statistical services of the countries and of the EEC. It is hoped to expand the comparisons beyond these countries as rapidly as possible.     

Profit Differences and Corporate Power: Some Empirical Surprises

Inflation targeting is currently the policy of choice for central banks. This policy invariably targets consumer price inflation, which is only one of many available price level indices (such as prices of new investments and house prices). As there is no stable relationship between these price levels, and as differences in developments between the different price levels might induce destabilizing behavior, there is no reason why “low and stable” consumer price inflation should guarantee monetary and financial stability. Following John Maynard Keynes, a “low and stable” increase of average nominal wages might do a better job. As price levels are designed to estimate the purchasing power of spending power and as income, and spending power are used to not just consume or invest but also to pay down many kinds of (gross) debt, it is advisable to use a joint definition of monetary and financial stability, which combines stable purchasing power of monetary income with a stable ability of households and companies to pay off debts.     

NEW INSIGHTS INTO THE STRUCTURE OF THE WORLD ECONOMY*

The United Nations' newly completed study of purchasing power parities covering 34 countries varied in region, income level, and form of economic organization shows the systematic differences between the usual view of the structure of the world economy arising out of international comparisons based upon foreign exchange rate conversions and the structure one sees when actual prices are available. The real per capita GDP of developing countries is understated relative to developed countries when exchange rates are used in converting countries' national income accounts to a common currency, with the degree of understatement for any two countries being inversely related to the per capita income difference between them. The reason for this is that relative prices in the non-traded goods sector are lower relative to traded goods prices in low income countries. The systematic pattern observed in the 1975 data of the 34 countries has been extrapolated over time and space to get estimates of GDP for other years and countries. In the absence of detailed price data, the real shares of final expenditures devoted to particular components of the total can only be estimated as the proportion of own currency total expenditure devoted to the components. The observed differences in the pattern of prices of poor countries relative to rich for different components makes this clearly wrong for international comparisons, and in systematic ways. For example, (i) the relative price of services compared with commodities in poor countries is lower than in rich; so the apparent tendency of the share of services to rise as a country's income rises disappears when real quantities are considered; similarly, (ii) the relative price of capital goods is greater in poor countries compared with rich ones, so the difference in investment ratios out of GDP between rich and poor countries is understated.     

A COMPARISON OF SOME SHORT-CUT METHODS OF ESTIMATING REAL PRODUCT PER CAPITA

Several recent studies of short-cut estimates comparing real income (on a purchasing power basis) of countries are reviewed, including methods comparing real income based on indicators, like electricity consumption. New estimates are presented for 101 countries which had a tradition of conventional national income estimates in 1965, and for 40 countries without extended national income series. One conclusion from the empircial analysis was that until there exist a large number of countries for which purchasing power estimates of real income are available, it is difficult to discriminate between alternative short-cut methods using indicators, and difficult to estimate real per capita incomes of low income countries without substantial errors of estimate. The paper advocates more purchasing power estimates, and institutionalizing the collection of international prices of specified items so that abbreviated market baskets can be readily compared across countries.     

REAL PRODUCT AND PRICE COMPARISONS BETWEEN LATIN AMERICA AND THE REST OF THE WORLD

The purpose of this article is to add 12 Latin American countries to the Phase III of the United National International Comparisons Project (ICP). The data for Latin America was obtained through ECIEL. It has been demonstrated that the exchange rates do not usually reflect the relative purchasing power of currencies. When low-income countries are compared to higher income countries the exchange rate conversion tends to understate the relative income of the lower income countries. This is true for the total GDP and even more so for the GDP components. In per capita terms it is found that for low income countries their income is more than twice as great as is indicated by the exchange rate conversion.     

Improving International Comparisons of Prices at Basic Heading Level: An Application to the Asia‐Pacific Region

The International Comparisons Program (ICP) run by the World Bank compares prices and real incomes across countries, and plays a pivotal role in the Penn World Table. Using a unique dataset consisting of over 600,000 price quotes from nine countries in the Asia‐Pacific region, we consider ways of improving the basic heading price indexes that form the building blocks of ICP. Current ICP methodology computes these price indexes using the country–product–dummy (CPD) method applied to the country average prices. We contrast this approach with: (i) a weighted version of CPD; (ii) CPD applied directly to the individual price quotes; and (iii) extended versions of CPD that include adjustments for unrepresentative products, urban–rural price differences, and different outlet‐types. Also considered are new CPD‐based methods for measuring urban–rural price differences, and the implications of our findings for the downward revision in China's GDP in ICP 2005.     

MEASURES OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIVE PRICES FOR CHINA AND THE USA

Abstract.  In this paper we assemble a measure of international relative prices to gauge the average amount by which prices in China and the USA differ from the prices of their trading partners. Our estimated weighted average of relative prices for China and the USA are the first to use the significantly revised purchasing power parities embodied in the price data from the World Bank's World Development Indicators. Our analysis reveals several findings of interest. First, interactions between the structure of trade and the levels of relative prices are sufficiently important to induce divergences between the weighted average of relative prices and conventional real effective exchange-rate indexes. Second, revisions embodied in World Development Indicators price data generally lower the estimate of US international relative prices. Third, net exports are inversely related to the estimate of US international relative price, but, for China, the correlation is positive. Estimating this correlation for other countries reveals no systematic pattern related to the level of development alone. Fourth, unlike previous work, using our price measures we find that an increase in US prices relative to Chinese prices raises the share of China's exports to the USA. Finally, there is a distinct possibility of eliminating the long-standing differential in income elasticities of US trade in empirical applications.     

AN EXPENDITURE-BASED BILATERAL COMPARISON OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT BETWEEN CHINA AND THE UNITED STATES

This paper presents a detailed bilateral comparison of GDP between China and the U.S. with 1986 as a reference date, using the purchasing power parity (PPP) approach formulated by the United Nations International Comparison Program (ICP). An estimate of PPP over GDP made for Chinese currency in this study was used t o estimate China's dollar per capita GDP in 1986 and 1991. The specific issues in the comparisons of the housing and the comparison-resistant services categories were discussed and an approach similar to the estimation of shadow rent was exercised. The possible errors in the bilateral comparison were analyzed.     

PUSHING THE SISYPHEAN BOULDER? MACROECONOMETRIC TESTING IN LATIN AMERICAN COUNTRIES

What are the implications of the historically observed economic policy instability in Latin American countries (LACs) for macroeconometric testing? Two pressing restrictions on the econometrician using time-series of LACs arise: time-varying parameters and time-varying specifications. Such an instability also has profound impacts on time-series measurements of national accounts at constant prices. This, together with the “second best methodology” used in LACs for computing real GNP, implies that LACs figures on GNP growth reflect growth in gross production rather than in value added. LACs time-series for private consumption are unreliable. Crucial data set constraints in LACs further complicate the task for the econometrician.     

EVIDENCE OF SPATIAL AUTOCORREILATION IN INTERNATIONAL PRICES

Data from the International Comparison Programme (ICP) generate a number of analyses examining price and quantity relationships across countries. Although geographic location is sometimes evoked to explain differences across observations, it is seldom used to measure the extent of this interrelationship. Using ICP Phase V benchmark studies (Summers and Heston, 1991) at the level of household consumption for approximately 64 countries and 23 aggregate headings in 1985, this paper introduces such a measure, testing for spatial autocorrelation among price relatives with respect to three different measures of relative location: the pairwise existence of a common boundary, the distance between capital cities and the amount of trade between two countries.     

PROBLEMS OF COMPARISONS IN AFRICA WITH SPECIAL REGARD TO KENYA

In order to obtain the information needed to include Kenya in an international comparison of income and purchasing power, it was necessary to collect some data to supplement the regularly collected statistics. Special collection was particularly important for capital goods prices and rural consumer goods prices. The remainder of the work involved using unpublished data available from the Kenyan Statistical Division, either to obtain additional detail required by the comparison, or to maintain international consistency in concept and estimating procedures.     

PRICES AND PRICE ANALYSIS IN THE FRAMEWORK OF THE NATIONAL ACCOUNTS

The paper discusses the role of prices in the framework of the new System of National Accounts (SNA) in terms of three major uses: (1) deflation, (2) price indicators, and (3) price analysis. Following a brief review of the price and quantity measures required by the new SNA with its emphasis on deflation of commodity flows and input-output accounts, in addition to the more conventional deflation of final demand categories, the paper discusses some of the conceptual, methodological and data problems involved in implementing the various uses of prices in the new SNA. Implementing the use of prices as deflators depends, in part, on the concept of output selected (national versus domestic; gross versus net), and which of six concepts of valuation, ranging from purchasers'value to true factor cost, is used. Some of the difficulties in deflating nonmarket flows (e.g., interplant transfers) and industry value added, based on the double deflation method, are discussed. In concept price deflators, which have shifting weights, cannot be used as price indicators, which should have fixed weights. In practice, this is often disregarded and the deflators are used as price indicators. The paper support the SNA recommendation for the development of price indexes with fixed weights to be used as price indicators, in addition to the implicit price deflators. Research in the United States indicates that differences in weights can result in different price measures for various subperiods, components of demand and sector output. Periodic revisions in weights to provide more current fixed weights for price and quantity indexes in each subperiod may minimize the problem but it introduces a new problem—lack of comparability with the constant price tables in the SNA which have fixed weights for the entire period. The new SNA provides a comprehensive and integrated framework for price analysis including the analysis of the structure of aggregate price changes, the industrial origin of final demand prices, and the impact of price change in one sector of the economy on the rest of the economy. Some major gaps which need to be overcome in order to implement the use of the new SNA for price analysis include the development of industry capital stock estimates, separate estimates of proprietors’income, reconciliation of value added and distribution share estimates, and the development of a wide variety of information to supplement the conventional input-output tables in the SNA. Implementing the various objectives of price measures within the framework of the accounts will require a number of improvements in existing price measures and expanding the scope of coverage. “List” prices should be superseded by “transactions” prices and better techniques and data need to be developed to provide for quality adjustment of prices. Coverage will need to be expanded to include services, freight rates, trade margins, government expenditures, and also fill in gaps for many manufactured products. Finally, where possible, use of unit values as price indexes or deflators, e.g., imports and exports, should be replaced by direct price measures.     

ON THE EIGHT BASIC UNITS OF A DYNAMIC ECONOMY CONTROLLED BY FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS*

The elegant general equilibrium world of Arrow and Debreu has had a considerable mathematical development in the last decade. Underlying this work is an extremely parsimonious model of the economic system. In particular, only one economic actor is distinguished, the consumer who maximizes his welfare (the firm which maximizes profit is an automation). One class of economic entities is considered. These are goods and services. There is no important operational distinction made between a good, which is durable, and a service, which is not. It is suggested here that a more fruitful basic economic model needed to achieve a unification of micro and macroeconomic theory needs both more actors and more basic economic units. Specifically, the structure of process in a political-economy is such that even at the level of relatively abstract theory operational differences among consumers, entreprenuers, administrators, financiers, and politicans should be discernible. Furthermore, several basic economic entities (or “basic particle”) must play important discernible roles in an adequate theory. In partiuclar, in the “real sector” physical assets should play a mahor role, i.e., the distinction between durable goods and consumables or services should be important. The paper sector must also be present with the roles of flat money, ownership claims and contracts all distinguished. It is argued here that any economy can be characterized in terms of two real and six paper basic units: goods, services and six financial instruments. All other financial instruments can be obtained as mixtures of this basic set.     

Estimating Purchasing Power Parities from Household Expenditure Data Using Complete Demand Systems with Application to Living Standards Comparison: India and Vietnam

This study departs from the previous literature on purchasing power parity (PPP) by proposing a demand system based methodology for calculating the PPP that takes account of consumer preferences and allows for the substitution effect of price changes. The methodology is used to calculate the PPP between the Indian Rupee and the Vietnamese Dong. The study allows for regional variation in preferences and price changes both inside the country and between countries. It proposes and applies a methodology for constructing prices from unit values after adjusting them for quality and demographic effects. The adjusted unit values are used as prices in the demand estimations, and the demand parameter estimates are used to calculate both spatial prices within each country and the PPP between the two countries within a consistent framework. The study illustrates the usefulness of preference consistent methods to calculate the PPP by applying the PPPs to compare living standards between India and Vietnam. The significance of the results follows from the fact that the levels of living comparisons are quite sensitive to the PPP used in converting the Rupee expenditure into Vietnamese Dong. The present results on food PPPs question the relevance of the PPPs from the ICP project in cross‐country welfare comparisons especially in a period of high food inflation.     

A Framework for the Simultaneous Measurement of Spatial Variation and Temporal Movement in Prices in a Heterogeneous Country: The Dynamic Household Regional Product Dummy Model

This paper contributes to the growing literature on spatial prices in large heterogeneous countries. While the literatures on spatial variation and temporal movement in prices have grown in parallel, this study marks a departure by providing a unified treatment and proposing a comprehensive framework that allows both approaches. The proposed model is based on twin extensions of the household version of the “country product dummy model” by allowing for a dynamic stochastic specification and interdependence of spatial prices of geographically adjacent regions. Tests of temporal stability and regional independence of the estimated spatial prices are proposed and applied in this paper. The paper shows that the introduction of an autoregressive error process of order one, AR(1), improves the efficiency of the estimates of parameters, urban‐rural and temporal price indices under certain conditions. The Indian application points to a rich potential for using the proposed framework in cross country comparisons such as the International Comparison Program (ICP) exercises.     

Why Has Japan Failed to Escape from Deflation?

Japan has failed to escape from deflation despite an extraordinary monetary policy easing over the past 4 years. Monetary easing undoubtedly stimulated aggregate demand, leading to an improvement in the output gap. However, since the Phillips curve was almost flat, prices have hardly reacted at all. Against this background, the key question is why prices were so sticky. To examine this, we use sectoral price data for Japan and seven other countries including the USA, and use these data to compare the shape of the price change distribution across the eight countries. Our main finding is that Japan differs significantly from the other countries in that the mode of the distribution is very close to zero for Japan, while it is near 2% for other countries. This suggests that while in the USA and other countries the “default” is for firms to raise prices by about 2% each year, in Japan the default is that, as a result of prolonged deflation, firms keep their prices unchanged.     

The effects of purchasing and price subsidy policies for agricultural products under target zones

A good harvest usually leads to a collapse of agricultural prices since the price elasticity of agricultural products is relatively low. To stabilize the market and protect farmers, many countries have introduced a target zone policy, together with product purchasing or price subsidy strategies. This article analyzes the effect of a target zone with different strategies operating in a coordinated manner. The results show that a target zone policy with agricultural product purchases does not necessarily stabilize agricultural product wholesale prices, but is able to stabilize manufacturing product prices, if the price effect is smaller than the sum of the wealth and asset effects for agricultural products and the price effect is larger than the interest rate effect for manufacturing products. On the contrary, a target zone policy with an agricultural product price subsidy will generate the “honeymoon effect” for agricultural product wholesale prices, but will result in unstableperformance of manufacturing product prices.