Learning and the monetary policy strategy of the European Central Bank

This paper examines the welfare implications of alternative inflation targeting proposals for the monetary policy of the European Central Bank. We assume that policy makers have to “learn” the laws of motion of inflation in an economy characterized by “stickiness” in domestic price setting behavior and subjected to recurring shocks to productivity, exports and foreign price. We find that a switch from an “asymmetric” inflation targeting strategy to an “symmetric” makes little difference in welfare payoffs, but it comes at a cost of much higher interest-rate variability. We also find that there are practically no welfare gains from switching from an inflation-targeting strategy based on the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) to a strategy based on the domestic price component of the HICP.     

CRITICAL THEORY AND ACCOUNTING HISTORY: CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES

This paper briefly examines the contributions that postmodern (critical) research has made to the historical accounting literature and the opportunities that this new body of literature has created for traditional historical researchers. I suggest that the “new history” that has rendered the “familiar strange” has provided new understanding of our discipline that should be welcomed by all historians. The paper briefly examines two areas, the emergence of double entry bookkeeping and cost accounting, to demonstrate the new insights that critical historians have provided to what has been considered a settled agenda. I conclude by noting that the diversity critical research has added to the accounting history research should be celebrated, but caution that we not engage in the modernist strategy of trying to find a “certified path to knowledge.” Accounting history will be enhanced if our community adopts the values–tolerance, willingness to listen, and respect for alternative views–ithat have enabled researchers in other disciplines to flourish.     

Information Uncertainty and Expected Returns

This study examines the role of information uncertainty (IU) in predicting cross-sectional stock returns. We define IU in terms of “value ambiguity,” or the precision with which firm value can be estimated by knowledgeable investors at reasonable cost. Using several different proxies for IU, we show that (1) on average, high-IU firms earn lower future returns (the “mean” effect), and (2) price and earnings momentum effects are much stronger among high-IU firms (the “interaction” effect). These findings are consistent with analytical models in which high IU exacerbates investor overconfidence and limits rational arbitrage.This revised version was published online in August 2005 with a corrected cover date.     

Men, children and the future of the family in the third millennium

This paper examines the effects of demographic change on the foundations of the family. The “first” demographic transition — the massive declines in fertility and mortality — is shown to have undermined the traditional male–female relationship based on parenthood. This has led to the gender revolution in the public sphere. The “second” demographic transition — the increases in divorce and cohabitation — is shown to have undermined the father–child relationship, reflecting women's control over children, a control that increased continually during the first demographic transition. This paper argues that the gender revolution needs to be brought into the family, increasing women's ability to compete in employment and men's ability both to choose whether to assume parental responsibility and to maintain active parental roles with their children.     

Towards a rational strategy for the human settlement of space

This paper revisits the core issues of space policy from the viewpoint of optimal decision theory. First it argues for a metric: maximizing the probability that humans and their technology in space someday reach what Rostow called the “economic takeoff” point where autonomous growth becomes possible, not bound by the rate of growth on earth. Next it discusses three concrete requirements to reach that point: benefits to earth which exceed costs to earth, large and diverse enough “exports” from space to earth, and advancements in technology and infrastructure. Energy from space (ES) is now one of the most promising export possibilities, based on what was learned in the last open US government effort on that topic, “JIETSSP,” led jointly by NSF and NASA. I review several options for ES, and propose a new one which, while slightly riskier, offers real hope of electricity at a price that could compete with coal and fission-plus-enrichment.     

Linking control systems to business unit strategy: impact on performance

Rooted in continguency theory, this paper examines linkages between strategy, incentive bonus system and effectiveness at the strategic business unit (SBU) level within diversified firms. Data from 58 SBUs reveal (1) that greater reliance on long-run criteria as well as subjective (non-formula) approaches for determining the SBU general managers' bonus contributes to effectiveness in the case of “build” SBUs but hampers it in the case of “harvest” SBUs, and (2) that the relationship between extent of reliance on short-run criteria and effectiveness is virtually independent of SBU strategy.     

Auditor changes following big eight mergers with non-big eight audit firms

This paper examines the reaction of clients of “non-Big Eight” audit firms to mergers of their auditors with “Big Eight” firms. We postulate that a non-Big Eight audit firm's clients will retain a Big Eight acquirer following a merger if they benefit from the Big Eight firm's specialized services and/or reputation. Clients that do not have these economic incentives to retain the Big Eight firm are more likely to change to another non-Big Eight audit firm following the merger. Empirical tests of the characteristics of clients that remain with a Big Eight acquirer or change to another smaller auditor following an audit merger generally support our hypotheses.     

The effect of client management bargaining power, moral reasoning development, and belief in a just world on auditor independence

In two studies, practising auditors' responses to hypothetical audit conflict scenarios were used to test hypotheses that moral reasoning development and belief in a just world influence resistance to client management power. Based on a mixed factorial ANOVA design, results confirmed that auditor independence is interactively determined. Three styles of auditor decision-making emerged: “autonomous”, “accommodating” and “pragmatic”. Autonomous auditors were responsive to personal beliefs, such that those with strong just world beliefs were more likely to resist client management power. Pragmatic auditors were responsive to client management power, irrespective of beliefs. Accommodating auditors responded both to personal beliefs and client management power; they comprised the least resistant group, especially when they believed in an unjust world.     

British central government and “the mercantile system of double entry” bookkeeping: a study of ideological conflict

The study examines the contest between rival interests following the Treasury's decision to explore the potential of “the mercantile system of double entry” bookkeeping as the basis for recording and reporting the financial affairs of British central government. At the heart of the ensuing dispute was an ideological conflict between individuals representing the competing interests of the aristocracy and those of the new capitalist classes. The battleground was whether the mercantile system of double entry should be designed to reflect the “old society” priorities of stewardship, patronage and personal accountability or “new society” pressure for a business framework judged capable of achieving “cheap and efficient government”.     

Auditors’ decision-making under going-concern uncertainties in low litigation-risk environments: Evidence from Hong Kong

This study examines the audit opinions issued by auditors in a low litigation-risk environment at a time of high economic uncertainty – that of Hong Kong in the period immediately after the Asian financial crisis of 1997. Empirical research using United States data has shown that, contrary to professional guidance which restricts the issue of “disclaimer of opinion” only to situations where existing uncertainties prevent the auditor from forming an opinion, auditors tend to use the “disclaimer” report (in the going concern context) to signal more extreme client firm’s distress. In the high litigation-risk environment of the US, researchers have attributed this tendency to the idea that “disclaimer of opinion” reports are used by auditors to provide some protection against potential legal liability. The results of this study provide evidence that, even in the low litigation-risk environment of Hong Kong, auditors still use “disclaimer” reports to signal more extreme client firm financial distress. Thus, the maintenance of a high litigation-risk environment does not appear to be a necessary pre-requisite for high quality audits.     

The accounting of interpretations and the interpretation of accounts: The communicative function of “the language of business”

The objectivistic philosophical assumptions which underlie contemporary research in accountancy, as well as economics and elsewhere, are challenged and an interpretive alternative is proposed. A “hermeneutical” view of decision-making is examined, first with regard to science in general, and then concerning the human sciences in particular, and finally with regard to economics. Human decisions are not seen as objective, mechanical or behavioristic but as meaningful utterances of minds, as part of a bidirectional communicative process. That is, scientific decisions, like everyday decisions, are mutually interpretive processes of communication in language. Although it is true that much of mainstream neoclassical economics is incompatible with this interpretive approach, the “Austrian” school can be seen as an interpretive version of neoclassicism. This school of economics indicates a way to understand the communicative function the accounting “language” itself serves in the economic process. The professional judgments made by both accounting researchers and practicing accountants, then, are treated as “matters of interpretation,” but as not, thereby, arbitrary.     

Accounting and the examination: A genealogy of disciplinary power

Historical elaboration of Foucault's concept of “power-knowledge” can explain both the late-medieval developments in accounting technology and why the near-universal adoption of a discourse of accountancy is delayed until the nineteenth century. It is the disciplinary techniques of elite medieval educational institutions—the new universities and their examinations—that generate new power-knowledge relations. These techniques embody forms of textual rewriting (including the new “alphanumeric” system) from which the accounting advances are produced and “control” is formalised. “Double-entry” is an aspect of these rewritings, linked also to the new writing and rewritings of money, especially the bill of exchange. By the eighteenth century accounting technologies are feeding back in a general way into educational practice (e.g. in the deployment of “book-keeping” on pupils) and this culminates in the introduction of the written examination and the mathematical mark. A new regime of “objective” evaluation of total populations, made up of individually “calculable” subjects, is thereby engendered and then extended — apparently first in the U.S. railroads — into modern comprehensive management and financial accounting systems (systems of “accountability” embodying Foucault's “reciprocal hierarchical observation” and “normalising judgement”), while written examinations become used to legitimate the newly autonomous profession of accountancy.     

The average hospital

In 1998, the UK government introduced the National Reference Costing Exercise (NRCE) to benchmark hospital costs. Benchmarking is usually associated with “excellence”; the government emphasised the raising of standards in the 1997 White Paper “The New NHS: Modern, Dependable” that heralded the NRCE. This paper argues that the UK “New Labour” government's introduction of, and increasing reliance on, hospital cost benchmarking is promoting “averageness”. Average hospitals will be cheaper to run and easier to control than highly differentiated ones; they may also score more highly on certain measures of service improvement. The paper aims, through empirical investigation, both to demonstrate how the activities and processes of hospital life “become average” as they are transformed to comply with the cost accounting average and to indicate how the “average” is being promoted as the norm for hospitals to aspire to. To benchmark to average costs, comparisons are necessary. To compare hospital costs involves the creation of categories and classification systems for clinical activities. Empirical evidence shows that as doctors, patients and clinical practices are moulded into costed categories, they become more standardized, more commensurate and the average hospital is created.     

An institutional analysis of accounting growth and regulation in the United States

The accounting profession in the United States has experienced rapid growth in the past two decades, and growth is likely to continue in the foreseeable future. Although the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission possesses explicit statutory authority to regulate accounting and financial reporting, the profession is largely self-regulated, an arrangement widely supported by the corporate business community. Yet no single current accounting theory provides a full understanding of these two very basic phenomena. This paper examines organizational models based on contractualism (agency theory and transaction cost analysis), hierarchy (radical) and Fligstein's “organizational fields” conception, and evaluates their application to the accounting process. It is proposed that institutions are central to an understanding of accounting growth and regulation. The essay then offers a theoretical critique based on the internal and external aspects of economic organizations.     

Inflation targeting in Brazil: constructing credibility under exchange rate volatility

This paper assesses the challenges faced by the inflation-targeting regime in Brazil. The inflation-targeting framework has played a critical role in macroeconomic stabilization. We stress two important challenges: construction of credibility and exchange rate volatility. The estimations indicate the following results: (i) the inflation targets have worked as an important coordinator of expectations; (ii) the Central Bank has reacted strongly to inflation expectations; (iii) there has been a reduction in the degree of inflation persistence; and (iv) the exchange rate pass-through for “administered or monitored” prices is two times higher than for “market” prices.     

Galton's Error and the under-representation of systematic risk

Science progresses by improving its measurement apparatus. This holds true in finance too. The new methodology of “complete identification”, using simple algebraic geometry, throws new light on Galton's Error in finance and economics and the resulting misinformation of investors. Mutual funds conventionally advertise their relative systematic market risk, or “betas”, to potential investors based on incomplete measurement by unidirectional bivariate projections: they commit Galton's Error by under-representing their systematic risk. Consequently, far too many mutual funds are marketed as “defensive” and too few as “aggressive”. Using the new methodology it is found that, out of a total of 3217 mutual funds, 2047 funds (63.7%) claimed to be defensive based on the current industry standard methodology, but only 608 (18.9%) actually are. This under-representation of systematic risk leads to inefficiencies in the capital allocation process, since biased betas lead to mispricing of mutual funds. Complete bivariate projections produce a correct representation of the epistemic uncertainty inherent in the bivariate measurement of relative market risk and provide a new CAPM taxonomy. Our conclusions have also serious consequences for the proper “bench-marking” and recent regulatory proposals for the mutual funds industry. Extension of the new methodology to multivariate systematic risk measurement by Asset Pricing Theory (APT) is suggested.     

Extended peer communities and the ascendance of post-normal politics

This paper describes an approach to the operationalisation of extended peer communities that deploys uncertainty, ignorance and indeterminacy, and examines the crucial role of trust. Trust underwrites both the dialogue central to extended peer communities and the functional utility of the knowledge so created, because when “facts are uncertain, values in dispute, stakes high … and the framing of the problem involves politics and values as much as science” (Ravetz J. Knowledge in an uncertain world. New Scientist 1990;127:2) the taken-for-granted trust in ‘normal' science is no longer assured, necessitating the cultivation of trust by other means. It is argued that extended peer communities provide a focus for the ascendant politics of the post-normal realm, in resonance with recently articulated insights into broader social theory.“… we continue to believe in the sciences, but instead of taking in their objectivity, their truth, their coldness, their extraterritoriality … we retain what has always been most interesting about them: their daring, their experimentation, their uncertainty, their warmth, their incongruous blend of hybrids, their crazy ability to reconstitute the social bond. We take away from them only the mystery of their birth and the danger their clandestineness posed to democracy” (Latour B. We have never been modern. Hemel Hempstead (UK): Harvester Wheatsheaf, 1993:142).     

The impact of foreign board membership on firm value

This study examines the effect of foreign (Anglo-American) board membership on corporate performance measured in terms of firm value (Tobin’s Q). Using a sample of firms with headquarters in Norway or Sweden the study indicates a significantly higher value for firms that have outsider Anglo-American board member(s), after a variety of firm-specific and corporate governance related factors have been controlled for. We argue that this superior performance reflects the fact that these companies have successfully broken away from a partly segmented domestic capital market by “importing” an Anglo-American corporate governance system. Such an “import” signals a willingness on the part of the firm to expose itself to improved corporate governance and enhances its reputation in the financial market.     

Intertopical sequencing of examination questions: An empirical evaluation

This research examines whether the ordering of topics within an accounting examination influences either (a) the time necessary to complete the examination, or (b) examination scores. Further, these effects are examined on both introductory students (n=83) and on more advanced accounting students (n=84).Six hypotheses concerning examination time and examination score were tested via two three-factor ANOVAs. It was found that “better” students are disadvantaged by random sequencing of multiple-choice questions and score significantly lower than on an ordered format. Poorer students appear not to be affected. No differences were found relating to time necessary to complete the exam.