考虑生存偏差现象的我国封闭式基金绩效持续性研究

生存偏差是进行我国封闭式基金绩效研究不可忽视的问题。本文选取2001-2009年我国54只契约型封闭式基金为样本,研究了生存偏差对封闭式基金绩效持续性的影响。结论认为,我国封闭式基金生存偏差效应显著为负,所估计得到的生存偏差效应值介于每年-4.97%至-0.34%之间;退市基金规模较小、绩效较高是导致这一结论的主要原因;同时,研究发现,生存偏差会减弱封闭式基金绩效持续性。     

开放式基金锚定启发式偏差对其绩效的影响——基于行业超额收益率的视角

本文利用最小二乘法对我国开放式基金的投资看涨情绪变动指标与行业超额收益率的相关关系进行了检验,考察开放式基金作为一个整体在各个行业上是否存在锚定启发式偏差,并进一步设计指标衡量单只开放式基金的锚定启发式偏差程度,利用BB动态面板模型考察了锚定启发式偏差对基金绩效的影响,发现基于行业当期超额收益率的锚定启发式偏差显著利于提高投资绩效,而基于行业历史超额收益率的反转启发式偏差对投资绩效的影响不大.     

中国对冲基金的业绩特征和风险属性

自2014年以来,中国对冲基金行业呈现岀快速的增长态势。本文介绍了中国对冲基金行业的发展,并通过构建一系列对冲基金指数,来衡量中国对冲基金行业整体绩效表现以及各个子策略的业绩特征,以便分析硏究并助力行业更好发展。文章认为,对冲基金行业的整体绩效有比市场指数更好的风险收益特征,能够为投资者带来价值。     

对冲基金投资收益与风险理论文献综述

另类投资领域中的对冲基金研究对于中国正在兴起的私募基金具有重要的理论和现实意义.本文系统回顾了对冲基金投资收益与风险研究的文献内容,收益的定价方法、收益数据的偏差研究、风险的估测方法、风险测量的不足、对冲基金对金融市场的稳定性影响等,研究发现对冲基金的风险未被正确认识而收益表现被高估.这为全面认识对冲基金的收益风险特征提供了理论基础.     

中国封闭式基金投资心理及其对市场的影响——基于锚定启发式偏差的实证研究

本文根据行为金融学的理论,通过构造合理反映投资者心理预期的指标,利用最小二乘法和Granger因果检验法对中国封闭式基金的投资看涨情绪变动指标和市场走势的相关关系进行检验,以考察封闭式基金是否具有锚定启发式偏差,并进一步考察其投资心理预期对未来市场走势的影响。研究发现,中国封闭式基金具有锚定启发式偏差,并且封闭式基金这种投资心理会对市场的短期走势产生显著影响。     

我国开放式基金启发式偏差行为及其对基金投资绩效的影响

本文根据行为金融学的理论,利用计量经济学方法对中国开放式基金的投资看涨情绪变动指标和市场收益率变动指标的相关关系进行检验,以考察开放式基金是否具有锚定启发式偏差,并进一步考察基金投资心理预期对其投资绩效的影响。研究发现,中国开放式基金表现出一定程度上的锚定启发式偏差,但不明显,并且开放式基金这种非理性的投资心理会对其短期投资业绩产生负向影响,而对中长期业绩的影响却是正向的。     

金融稳定视角下的对冲基金监管框架研究

进入新世纪以来,在低利率环境下对冲基金规模、市场影响和行业特征发生了一系列重要变化。从金融稳定视角看,对冲基金既可以基于不受直接监管的特点,向市场注入流动性,充当系统性风险"缓释器",也可以因高杠杆、隐蔽的操作直接或间接触发市场危机。为趋利避害,在构建对冲基金监管框架时,应遵循如下原则,一是避免直接限制对冲基金投资活动和风险管理细节,防止对其像共同基金或银行那样实施监管;二是在把握对冲基金市场影响传导机制的基础上控制监督关键变量,提高预警能力;三是在多元治理视角下,努力引导加强市场纪律。     

对冲基金的美国监管模式及其影响

本文对美国对对冲基金的监管模式进行研究,揭示其特征及其对国际监管环境的影响。研究认为,美国监管模式的实质是强调市场纪律的间接监管。间接监管模式有利于降低交易成本维护市场弹性,但也可能给对冲基金的风险活动留下过大的自由空间。在可见的将来,这一模式仍将是国际主流监管模式。新兴市场国家如何加强对对冲基金的外部监管,需要权衡利弊谨慎从事。     

近期对冲基金业的发展特征及对我国的启示

近年来,在全球金融一体化的背景下,随着金融风险理论的发展和金融衍生工具的创新,对冲基金在数量和资产规模上都有了显著增长,并呈现出许多新的变化和特点。本文从对冲基金规模、区域分布、投资组合策略、对国际金融市场的影响、收益-风险特征变化以及监管几个方面,对对冲基金进行了研究与分析,对今后我国如何监管对冲基金进行了探讨,并提出了自己的建议。     

证券分析师预测偏差研究述评

证券分析师的预测是否可以准确地代表市场预期,进而提高市场效率,一直以来都是投资者关注的重点和学术界讨论的热点。现有研究发现,动机驱动和认知偏差等多方面因素可能导致证券分析师的有偏预测。本文从证券分析师预测偏差内涵及其测度差异的界定,导致偏差的动因以及预测偏差对信息有效性的影响等方面对预测偏差的研究脉络和研究进展进行梳理和评述,同时提出了未来的研究方向。     

Behavioral Biases and Investment

We investigate the way investors react to prior gains/losses. We directly examine investor reactions to different definitions of gains and losses (i.e., overall wealth, paper gains and losses, and realized capital gains and losses) and investigate how gains and losses in one category of wealth (e.g., real estate) affect holdings in other categories (e.g., financial assets). We show that investors change their holdings of risky assets as a function of both financial and real estate gains. Prior gains increase risk-taking, while prior losses reduce it. To interpret our results, we consider and compare three alternative hypotheses of investor behavior: prospect theory, house money effect and standard utility theory with decreasing risk aversion. Our evidence fails to support loss aversion, pointing in the direction of the house money effect or standard utility theory. Investors consider wealth in its entirety, and risk-taking in financial markets is affected by gains/losses in overall wealth, financial wealth, and real estate wealth. We appreciate the helpful comments of: O. Bondarenko, F. De Jong, B. Dumas, H. Hau, P. Hillion, R. Jaganathan, M. Lettau, P.Maenhout, M. Huang, S. Mullanaithen, T. Odean, J. Peress, R. Shiller, P. Sodini, M. Suominen, A. Subrahmanyan, B. Swaminathan, R. Thaler, L. Tepla, P. Veronesi, M. Weber and the participants of the Summer Financial Markets Symposium at Gerzensee and the NBER Behavioral Finance Meeting, Fall 2002. We are grateful to Sven-Ivan Sundqvist for numerous helpful discussions and for providing us with the data. Financial support from Inquiry Europe is acknowledged. Andrei Simonov also acknowledges financial support from the Jan Wallander and Tom Hedelius Foundation. Any remaining errors are our own.     

Do Behavioral Biases Affect Prices?

This paper documents strong evidence for behavioral biases among Chicago Board of Trade proprietary traders and investigates the effect these biases have on prices. Our traders appear highly loss‐averse, regularly assuming above‐average afternoon risk to recover from morning losses. This behavior has important short‐term consequences for afternoon prices, as losing traders actively purchase contracts at higher prices and sell contracts at lower prices than those that prevailed previously. However, the market appears to distinguish these risk‐seeking trades from informed trading. Prices set by loss‐averse traders are reversed significantly more quickly than those set by unbiased traders.     

Disagreement and Biases in Inflation Expectations

Disagreement in inflation expectations observed from survey data varies systematically over time in a way that reflects the level and variance of current inflation. This paper offers a simple explanation for these facts based on asymmetries in the forecasters' costs of over- and underpredicting inflation. Our model implies (i) biased forecasts, (ii) positive serial correlation in forecast errors, (iii) a cross-sectional dispersion that rises with the level and the variance of the inflation rate, and (iv) predictability of forecast errors at different horizons by means of the spread between the short- and long-term variance of inflation. We find empirically that these patterns are present in inflation forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. A constant bias component, not explained by asymmetric loss and rational expectations, is required to explain the shift in the sign of the bias observed for a substantial portion of forecasters around 1982.     

Earnings management in the pre-IPO process: Biases and predictors

We analyze a sample of 3,293 IPOs from 29 countries to investigate the firm, industry, and country characteristics related to earnings management during the IPO process. We find that IPO firms tend to have significantly positive discretionary accruals (DCA) both prior to and after the IPO, suggesting that IPO firms tend to engage in pre-IPO earnings management. However, we also find that using a proxy for earnings management in the IPO year may lead to biased conclusions concerning pre-IPO earnings management. Firms that are more likely to need access to capital markets in the future (firms with high leverage, and firms backed by a venture capitalist) are less likely to engage in pre-IPO earnings management. Firms operating in countries with a superior rule of law are also less likely to engage in earnings management. Lastly, we find that firms may engage in pre-IPO earnings management in part to avoid returning to the capital markets to raise more funds (capital market staging). This result is robust to possible endogeneity bias stemming from management self-selection.     

中国个人投资者交易行为偏差及其防范

从行为金融的角度看,个人投资者的交易行为常常出现一些偏差,导致他们的投资业绩下降.这些偏差在很大程度上是投资者内在心理因素作用的结果,往往难以完全避免.个人投资者必须采取相应措施,努力防范和减少这些偏差,改善他们的交易行为.     

Dividend Forecast Biases in Index Option Valuation

Since the early days of option pricing theory,the assumption that the dividends on the underlying stock or index over the life of the contract are known has not been challenged. We examine the sensitivity of index option prices to the assumption of dividend uncertainty. We consider a number of issues related to the forecasting of dividends and build a dividend forecasting model that passes several rigorous tests for unbiasedness. We then generate option prices using contemporary market levels and interest rates. We find that prices generated with the actual dividends are unbiased with respect to those generated using the forecasted dividends. The magnitudes of the forecast errors, however, are sufficiently large to suggest a concern, but the percentage errors are consistently small, typically amounting to less than two percent of the option price. We conclude that the convenient assumption that the stream of future dividendsis known is probably innocuous. This revised version was published online in November 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

An Examination of the Biases in Estimating the Benefit of Debt Insurance

This paper examines the biases in previous studies of estimating the benefit of debt insurance. We identify three possible sources of estimation biases: selection bias, marketability bias, and premium bias. Our findings indicate that both the selection bias and the marketability bias cause an underestimation of the actual benefit of bond insurance, while the premium bias results in an overestimation. Future research could benefit from this study by explicitly accounting for these estimating biases in obtaining a more accurate evaluation of the role of debt insurance in the market.     

关于权证定价修正模型的比较研究——基于交易成本和股息分红因素的分析框架

在我国股权分置改革中，权证推动了证券市场的金融创新。鉴于权证定价可以借鉴期权理论，国外B—S模型对我国权证市场的创新和风险管理具有一定的参考意义。本文采用B—S定价模型定价宝钢认购权证和长电认购权证，分别从交易成本和股息分红的角度进行了相应的模型调整，以改进、完善适应我国权证市场的定价方法。     

Biases in computed returns: An application to the size effect

Previous estimates of a ‘size effect’ based on daily returns data are biased. The use of quoted closing prices in computing returns on individual stocks imparts an upward bias. Returns computed for buy-and-hold portfolios largely avoid the bias induced by closing prices. Based on such buy-and-hold returns, the full-year size effect is half as large as previously reported, and all of the full-year effect is, on average, due to the month of January.