Determinants of Consumption and Savings Behavior in Developing Countries

The determinants of savings generally and the specific effectsof government policies on savings and consumption are pivotalforces in investment and economic growth. The Hall hypothesisstates that consumption is a function of lifetime ("permanent")income, rather than income in each period independently. Changesin interest and tax rates, money supply, or government expenditurewill affect permanent income and hence consumption and savingsonly if they are unexpected and thus not already incorporatedin the estimation of permanent income. We are unable to rejectthe Hall hypothesis in tests for developing countries when weallow for varying interest rates. We do find evidence of a negativeeffect of inflation on consumption, and a positive relationshipbetween the real interest rate and consumption. The evidencefor the Hall hypothesis also suggests that Ricardian equivalencemay be valid—this is Barro's hypothesis that the effecton savings is the same whether government deficits are financedthrough taxation or debt. Our preliminary testing, however,does not support Ricardian equivalence.     

储蓄与储蓄缺口--对发展经济学教科书"储蓄缺口"判断标准的质疑

在标准的发展经济学教科书中，一般都将I—S缺口作为判断储蓄缺口是否存在的依据。本文从国民经济核算的角度对此提出疑义，认为此标准与较早对储蓄缺口问题进行系统研究的先行者罗森斯坦——罗丹的解释不符。按照对储蓄含义的剖析，在资本自由流动的今天，I-S缺口并不能完全反映一国真实的储蓄供求状况，而中国在此基础上所兼有的巨额存差和银行呆坏帐则表明，中国经济发展面临的约束条件已经由储蓄不足演变为储蓄过剩。     

Urbanization in Developing Countries

The rapid urbanization in many developing countries over thepast half century seems to have been accompanied by excessivelyhigh levels of concentration of the urban population in verylarge cities. Some degree of urban concentration may be desirableinitially to reduce inter- and intraregional infrastructureexpenditures. But in a mature system of cities, economic activityis more spread out. Standardized manufacturing production tendsto be deconcentrated into smaller and medium-size metropolitanareas, whereas production in large metropolitan areas focuseson services, research and development, and nonstandardized manufacturing.The costs of excessive concentration (traffic accidents, healthcosts from exposure to high levels of air and water pollution,and time lost to long commutes) stem from the large size ofmegacities and underdeveloped institutions and human resourcesfor urban planning and management. Alleviating excessively highurban concentration requires investments in interregional transportand telecommunications to facilitate deconcentration of industry.It also requires fiscal deconcentration, so that interior citiescan raise the fiscal resources and provide the services neededto compete with primate cities for industry and population.      

Capital Structures in Developing Countries

This study uses a new data set to assess whether capital structure theory is portable across countries with different institutional structures. We analyze capital structure choices of firms in 10 developing countries, and provide evidence that these decisions are affected by the same variables as in developed countries. However, there are persistent differences across countries, indicating that specific country factors are at work. Our findings suggest that although some of the insights from modern finance theory are portable across countries, much remains to be done to understand the impact of different institutional features on capital structure choices.     

Brain Drain in Developing Countries

An original data set on international migration by educationalattainment for 1990 and 2000 is used to analyze the determinantsof brain drain from developing countries. The analysis startswith a simple decomposition of the brain drain in two multiplicativecomponents, the degree of openness of sending countries (measuredby the average emigration rate) and the schooling gap (measuredby the education level of emigrants compared with natives).Regression models are used to identify the determinants of thesecomponents and explain cross-country differences in the migrationof skilled workers. Unsurprisingly, the brain drain is strongin small countries that are close to major Organisation forEconomic Co-operation and Development (OECD) regions, that sharecolonial links with OECD countries, and that send most of theirmigrants to countries with quality-selective immigration programs.Interestingly, the brain drain increases with political instabilityand the degree of fractionalization at origin and decreaseswith natives' human capital.     

基于世代交叠模型的养老保险制度与储蓄率关系研究

近年来．我国储蓄率一直处于较高水平。目前的经济发展背景下,高储蓄率的负面效应逐渐体现,如何让储蓄率达到适合经济发展的最优水平是一个重要的研究课题。本文介绍了世代交叠模型以及我国的养老保险制度,并根据我国的养老保险制度建立修正的世代交叠模型。通过求解最优储蓄率,探讨了我国养老保险和储蓄率之间的关系．并提出通过提高养老保险水平降低储蓄率的观点。     

Small Manufacturing Enterprises in Developing Countries

Emphasis is often placed on the promotion of small enterprisesin developing countries, particularly as a means of improvingthe lot of unskilled workers. This focus raises questions aboutthe relationship between establishment size and the patternand efficiency of factor use, and about the nature and effectsof price differentials in factor markets. This article goessome way toward answering these questions with data from surveysof small manufacturing enterprises in India and Colombia sponsoredby the World Bank and relevant material from other countries.The article also examines India's long-standing policy, unusualamong developing countries, of providing special support andprotection for small enterprises. Analyses based on disaggregateddata found that small firms are not reliably more labor-intensivethan their larger counter-parts; nor are they consistently moretechnically efficient in their use of resources. In light ofthese findings and an analysis of factor markets, this articlediscusses the general implications of the research results forindustrial policy in developing countries.     

发展中国家的国有经济改革

伴随发达国家国有经济改革,发展中国家针对本国国有经济存在的弊端也掀起了改革浪潮。改革的核心是产权的私有化。实践表明,私有化不是万能的,政府在经济发展中的干预作用不可削弱。国有经济改革的出路不只是私有化,更重要的是理顺产权关系,改革治理结构,提高管理水平。     

Personal Income Taxes in Developing Countries

Comparative work on income taxes in developing countries hascommonly looked at average tax rates. These rates are oftenconstructed by dividing revenue collections by some measureof private or personal income. Recent controversies have, however,focused on the incentive effects of marginal tax rates. Thisarticle develops and applies a simple methodology to comparemarginal official tax rates across a sample of fifty developingcountries. As would be expected given differences in fiscalcapacity, the poorest and the lower-middle-income countriesimpose relatively low marginal rates, and the rates for theupper-middle-income and developed countries are higher. Conversely,several low-and lower-middle-income countries' tax thresholdsstart at income levels which are low relative to their meanincome when compared with those of developed countries. Theresults warn against trying to derive information on the disincentiveeffect of a country's tax schedule from the highest marginalrate; our data show that this is not an accurate indicator ofoverall disincentive effects.     

Saving in Developing Countries: An Overview

This article reviews the current state of knowledge on the determinantsof saving rates, presenting the main findings and contributionsof the recently completed World Bank research project, ‘SavingAcross the World.’ The article discusses the basic designof the research project and its core database, the World SavingDatabase. It then summarizes the main project results and placesthem in the context of the literature on saving, identifyingthe key policy and nonpolicy determinants of private savingrates. Special attention is paid to the relationship betweengrowth and saving and the impact of specific policies on savingrates. The article concludes by introducing the studies includedin this special issue.     

Managing Oil Price Risk in Developing Countries

This article presents a simple framework for understanding theimpact of oil dependence on growth in terms of an optimal savingsand investment strategy. Among the more important factors underlyingthis strategy is the extent to which oil price changes are temporaryor permanent. This in turn determines whether a country shouldrely on stabilization and savings funds or the use of financialinstruments to manage oil revenues—or both. Country experienceswith stabilization and savings funds are surveyed, and the caseis presented for using financial instrument to manage oil pricerisk. Policy implications for enhancing the use of financialinstruments are explored, including an expanded role for internationalfinancial institutions.      

Taxation of Financial Assets in Developing Countries

In developing countries most of the financial assets are depositsat commercial banks. This article focuses on the implicit taxationof financial assets through seigniorage, reserve requirements,lending targets, and interest ceilings combined with inflation.The impact of taxation on financial deepening increases significantlywith the tax rate, as shown by cross-sectional and time seriesdata for selected countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and SoutheastAsia. The problem of measuring revenue is examined, and theefficiency cost of taxation is analyzed in a Harberger framework.Although taxes on financial assets have a low administrativecost, the excess burden caused by the misallocation of resourcesis probably a much higher fraction of revenues than that ofother taxes.     

Infrastructure and Public Utilities Privatization in Developing Countries

Should governments in developing countries promote private ownershipand deregulated prices in noncompetitive sectors? Or shouldthey run publicly owned firms and regulate prices at the expenseof rents to insiders? A theoretical model is used to answerthese normative questions. The analysis focuses on the tradeoffbetween fiscal benefits and consumer surplus during privatizationof noncompetitive sectors. Privatization transfers control rightsto private interests and eliminates public subsidies, yieldingbenefits to taxpayers at the cost of increased prices for consumers.In developing countries, where budget constraints are tight,privatization and price liberalization may be optimal for lowprofitability industries but suboptimal for more profitableindustries. And once a market has room for more than one firm,governments may prefer to regulate the industry. Without a credibleregulatory agency, regulation is achieved through public ownership.     

Prospects for Agricultural Land Taxation in Developing Countries

Countries that collect tax revenue from the agricultural sectorthrough export taxes, marketing boards, and overvalued domesticcurrencies are often loath to abandon these distorting policiesbecause of the consequent revenue loss. One potential alternativeis to replace these distortionary taxes with a land tax, whichwould not depress output prices or discourage foreign exchangeearnings and which could be, in theory, a highly progressivetax. The advantages and disadvantages of a land tax are examinedtheoretically and using the specific experiences of Bangladesh,Argentina, and Uruguay. It is concluded that the land tax isnot necessarily more efficient than other types of taxes; theAchilles Heel of land taxation is administration; progressivetax rates based on land holdings are nearly impossible to administer;land taxes have been ineffective at promoting nonrevenue goals;political support by farmers is necessary to implement the tax;and the most promising prospects for a moderate land tax systemare in financing local, rather than central, government expenditures.     

发展中国家小额信贷发展模式分析

在世界各地组织实施小额信贷的机构有多种,有政府组织,也有非政府组织,有正式的金融机构,也有社区组织和国际组织。多边双边援助机构及政府组织把小额信贷视为发展援助的一个新内容,使得小额信贷得到迅速推广。在各国的实践中,小额信贷逐渐形成了一套符合本国国情的模式。目前,世界各国的小额信贷模式千差万别,以各种方式存在,主要包括五种模式。     

谈邮政储蓄银行开发农村信贷市场的策略

邮政储蓄全面开发农村信贷市场已是形势发展之必然，农村信贷市场空间广阔，邮政储蓄银行具有发展该项业务的渠道优势和信誉优势，开发农村信贷市场在业务品类的丰富和提升上需要循序渐进，并注重加强信贷风险管理和专业队伍建设等问题。     

金融全球化与发展中国家的金融风险

金融全球化在推动经济增长的同时,也增加了金融体系的风险性,发展中国家由于其金融体系的脆弱性,其遭受打击程度要比发达国家严重得多。当今世界金融失衡的传递效应很显著,金融危机可以通过货币、资本、央行政策以及心理预期等因素进行传递。发展中国家由于金融体系的脆弱性,更成为金融危机的最大受害者。所以,加强监管,应该成为我们面对金融全球化的首要任务。     

Household Survey Data and Pricing Policies in Developing Countries

In recent years, household survey data from developing countrieshave increasingly become available and have been increasinglyused to cast light on important questions of policy. The reformof prices, whether agricultural prices, consumer taxes, subsidies,or tariffs, has consequences for individual welfare and forgovernment revenues, and these can be investigated empiricallywith household survey data. The gainers and losers from pricechanges can be identified, and the magnitudes of their gainsand losses measured. Nonparametric estimation techniques providea straightforward and convenient way of displaying this information.The procedure is illustrated for the effects of rice pricingin Thailand using data from more than five thousand rural households.Estimates of the revenue effects of price reforms are harderto obtain, because they require estimates of supply and demandelasticities, estimates that are not easily obtained for manydeveloping countries. A procedure is presented for estimatingprice elasticities of demand from spatial price variation asrecorded in household survey data. The main innovations liein the appropriate treatment of quality variations and measurementerror. Applications of the procedure in Côte d'lvoire,Indonesia, and Morocco are reviewed.     

Household Saving in Developing Countries: First Cross-Country Evidence

Although most studies have relied on domestic or private sectorsaving data, this article uses household data available fromthe U.N. System of National Accounts for a sample of 10 countries.Household saving functions are estimated using combined time-seriesand cross-country observations in order to test households'responses to income and growth, rates of return, monetary wealth,foreign saving, and demographic variables. The results showthat income and wealth variables affect saving strongly andin ways consistent with standard theories. Inflation and theinterest rate do not show clear effects on saving, which isalso consistent with their theoretical ambiguity. Foreign savingand monetary assets have strong negative effects on householdsaving, which suggests the importance of liquidity constraintsand monetary wealth in developing countries.