Price dynamics in public and private housing markets in Singapore

In down-payment constrained housing consumption models, increases in house prices could trigger household mobility decisions in housing markets. This study empirically tests house price dynamics associated with the mobility of households in the public resale and private housing markets in Singapore. The results show that stochastic permanent breaks were found in the public housing resale prices and private housing prices. The relative prices drift apart occasionally, but mean-revert to a long-run fundamental equilibrium. Error correction mechanisms and lagged public housing prices were also found to have significant explanatory effects for price changes in the private housing markets. The results support the hypothesis that household mobility creates co-movements of prices in public and private housing submarkets in the long run.     

House prices, wealth effects, and the Singapore macroeconomy

This paper examines the effect housing wealth has upon aggregate consumption in Singapore. While past research has focused only on changes in private housing wealth, the residential market in Singapore is dominated by the public housing sector. The massive public housing segment can generate potentially different wealth effects from standard private housing markets given the former’s unique institutional features. In particular, public housing owners who sell their units at market rates can repurchase a public flat at subsidized prices whereas private homeowners typically cannot. We estimate the link between consumption expenditure and both private and public housing wealth using a VARX approach for the Q1:1990–Q4:2002 period. We find that changes in private house prices have no significant effect on aggregate consumption. In contrast, public housing wealth effects are larger and more persistent.     

新加坡公共住房发展中典型新镇的建设与启示

无论是发达国家还是发展中国家,都面临着城市中低收入家庭住房困难如何解决的问题。新加坡作为一个资源匮乏的城I市国家,经过50年发展,已从最初单纯解决房荒问题逐渐演变为如何为公共住房社区居民的生活、工作和休闲创建良好的环境和配套设施并加强社区的活性和凝聚力建设,让公共住房最终提升为国家精神内涵载体的问题。以女皇镇、大巴窑、淡宾尼、榜鹅21新镇为例,分析了新加坡公共住房发展4个不同阶段典型新镇建设的特点,以期为我国当前大规模保障性住房的建设提供借鉴。     

The political economy of housing prices: Hedonic pricing with regression discontinuity

This paper uses hedonic pricing to empirically estimate the value of publicly provided local goods and services in the constituencies of the ruling party relative to those of the opposition parties. To improve control for omitted variables that change smoothly over space, we use a regression discontinuity design to restrict the sample to houses that are near the electoral boundaries. Using resale market prices of public flats in Singapore, in some cases we find a moderate but highly statistically significant difference in housing prices across the electoral boundaries that separate the constituencies of the ruling party and the opposition parties.     

Cyclical fluctuations in the Israeli housing market

While public construction in Israel is of a magnitude sufficient to exert effective housing market countercyclical influence, it has often had the opposite effect. This phenomenon is viewed with particular concern, given that economywide recessions of past decades have been precipitated by significant downturns in the construction industry. This paper describes specification and estimation of a simultaneous-equation structural model of the Israeli housing market. Results of the analysis indicate the importance of disaggregation by public and private sectors as well as the significance of mortgage availability and price, substitution and income effects, disruptions caused by war and the like in an explanation of cyclical phenomenon.     

Distributional aspects of public rental housing and rent control policies in Spain

This paper studies the importance of the economic advantages and some distributional consequences generated by public and subsidized rental housing as well as rent control policies in Spain. Individual benefits are defined as the difference between the rent the protected dwellings would have in the market, minus the rent actually paid for them. The market valuation is obtained with an hedonic function estimated for the uncontrolled private sector. Data for the Madrid Metropolitan Area in 1974 show that for both policies, benefits are of considerable importance, while its distribution among beneficiaries is very unsatisfactory according to horizontal and vertical equity criteria.     

SEARCH AND VACANCY COSTS IN THE TOKYO HOUSING MARKET: ATTEMPT TO MEASURE SOCIAL COSTS OF IMPERFECT INFORMATION

The social cost of imperfect information, in terms of buyers' search costs and sellers' opportunity costs of vacancy, is estimated in the real estate market of resale condominiums in central Tokyo by using a new, comprehensive dataset of resale condominium transactions. The results suggest a substantial social cost. Specifically, if housing information were perfectly available and marketing time were null, sellers would get benefits of 22.59% of imputed net rents of their property. In addition, buyers would save 1,042,000 yen spent on search activities for one transaction, if information were perfect. This is equivalent to 13.2% of buyers' average annual income.     

异质性对新建商品住房市场交易速度的影响——来自北京市的微观证据

基于异方差修正的久期似然模型,利用北京市新建商品住房市场大样本数据,实证检验了城市住房异质性特征对住房市场交易风险率的影响效果及其稳健性。实证结果表明,地铁及通勤设施、教育资源、医疗资源和休闲购物等因素对新建商品住房交易速度的影响逐次减弱,且上述影响在大户型住房、预售住房以及小规模项目住房中更加显著。结论可以为市场参与者调整住房交易决策提供依据,也可以为政府制定住房市场和保障性住房相关政策提供参考。     

Public Homeownership, Housing Finance and Socioeconomic Development in Singapore

This paper first presents an analytic review of Singapore public homeownership policy developments over the past 35 years. The analysis will then focus on the two main reasons contributing to the success of Singapore public homeownership: the country's model of public housing finance; and the significant role public homeownership has played in its economic development. Finally, the paper concludes that the Singapore public housing system is not a ready package that can be applied anywhere, but that it does offer experiences that could be useful for other countries.     

各国多元租赁房供给模式与启示

在各国的住房市场上，租赁住房具有不可或缺的地位。它既可满足消费者多样化选择，促进人口劳动力的合理流动，平抑售房市场价格，还可减轻政府公共住房的压力。为培养租赁住房市场，各国政府无不运用财税、金融、法律等多种政策鼓励民营资本进入租赁市场，使得非盈利组织、住房合作社、房地产信托基金、保险公司和私人业主成为租赁住房的主力军。借鉴国外经验，遵循《政府工作报告》中“建机制、补短板、兜底线”的精神，补好住房政策中租赁市场欠发达的短板，鼓励民营资本进入，更有效地解决大城市住房难的问题。     

公共财政支持住房保障的政策研究——以浙江省为例

随着我国城镇住房市场化水平的提高,急剧攀升的地价和房价使得部分中低收入家庭的住房支付能力不足,住房困难问题日益突出,迫切需要加大公共财政支持保障房建设的力度。本文通过分析浙江省利用公共财政支持住房保障的现状、保障房建设资金来源,对其资金需求进行预测,建议加大财政支持力度、搭建省级融资平台、建立保障房基金,采取BOT或BT形式的财政投资合作建房模式提高财政使用效率,因地制宜根据各地房地产市场发展程度采取适合的保障方式,并加快制度和机构建设。     

城市空间结构理论——单中心城市静态模型

首先介绍了在西方城市经济理论中被广泛接受的单中心城市空间结构静态模型。然后,利用比较静态分析方法(comparativestaticanalysis),分析区位、居民收入及交通费用(区位,居民收入及交通费用为模型的外生变量(exogenousvariable))对价格和房屋消费量(价格和房屋消费量为模型的内生变量(endogenousvariable))的影响。最后,理论模型通过引进一般住房生产函数,推导出土地价格及资本密度(即建筑高度)的空间变化规律。通过对城市经济模型进一步分析(对极值条件或解的微分解析分析)得出地价(地租),资本密度(或称容积率),人口密度的空间分布规律,这些规律对城市规划,城市政策,引进市场原则和价格机制来提高城市土地利用效率都有理论指导意义。     

成都市廉租房建设应用PPP融资模式的风险研究

当前成都市廉租房项目建设中存在融资难问题,探析廉租房建设中引入国外基础设施建设中常用的PPP融资模式。政府通过长期合同协议邀请私营部门参与项目融资、施工和运营。对于政府来说,投资更为经济,可以将一部分风险转移给私营部门。对于私营部门来说,通过投资和管理风险获取收益。文章采用模糊综合评价法对成都市廉租房采用PPP融资存在风险进行分析,为政府廉租房融资提供一条新的思路。     

The spillover effects of infill developments on local housing prices

This paper examines the spillover effects of infill developments, which involve developing vacant or under-used parcels within existing urban areas that are largely developed, on local housing prices. Employing a difference-in-difference specification on a sample of 275 new developments and 55,887 sale transactions of houses in Singapore, we find that infill developments have a positive and persistent impact on local housing prices. The contagion effect is larger for infill developments that are built on teardown sites. The spillover effect can also be traced to the overpricing of new homes by developers. Overall, the evidence indicates that developers act as price leaders and contribute significantly to price discovery in the local housing market.     

美国住房租赁市场运行机制探讨及借鉴

美国拥有发达的私人住房租赁市场和公共住房租赁市场,其关于住房租赁市场的法律制度、税收体系、房租补贴政策和完善的政府监管体制等方面均值得我国借鉴。研究表明,支撑美国住房租赁市场的因素主要有供给因素、需求因素和政府对租赁市场的有效管理和规范。尽管在住房消费文化和土地制度环境等方面我国住房市场与美国住房市场差异显著,但美国发展与规范住房租赁市场的经验对培育和发展我国住房租赁市场仍然具有重要的政策借鉴价值。     

WHAT HAS 20 YEARS OF PUBLIC–PRIVATE PAY GAP LITERATURE TOLD US? EASTERN EUROPEAN TRANSITIONING vs. DEVELOPED ECONOMIES

This paper surveys the literature on public–private sector pay differentials based on 20 years of research in transitioning countries of Eastern Europe (EE) and compares the results with estimates obtained from developed market economies. The majority of empirical studies from EE economies found evidence of public sector pay penalties during the period of economic transition from a communist to market‐based economy. In developed economies, however, the average differential is usually around zero or positive. The public sector pay inequality reducing effect relative to the private sector is greater in transitioning economies than in developed economies. Nevertheless, there is evidence that the sign of the public sector pay gap as well as the relative public sector pay distribution change with the progress of economic transition towards those usually observed in developed economies. Different pay‐setting arrangements between private and public sectors and competition for workers seem to be major arguments for the existence of systematic pay differences between the two sectors.     

美国住房租赁市场运行机制探讨及借鉴

美国拥有发达的私人住房租赁市场和公共住房租赁市场,其关于住房租赁市场的法律制度、税收体系、房租补贴政策和完善的政府监管体制等方面均值得我国借鉴。研究表明,支撑美国住房租赁市场的因素主要有供给因素、需求因素和政府对租赁市场的有效管理和规范。尽管在住房消费文化和土地制度环境等方面我国住房市场与美国住房市场差异显著,但美国发展与规范住房租赁市场的经验对培育和发展我国住房租赁市场仍然具有重要的政策借鉴价值。     

香港住房市场中的政府干预及其启示

首先回顾了香港政府干预私人住房市场的背景和已经使用的政策措施,然后系统总结了其在不同市场条件下干预住房市场的政策选择,并分析了使用这些干预政策所取得的效果。结果表明,香港政府对住房市场的干预,在一定程度上减小了市场波动带来的冲击,但也存在干预目标不能及时调整、货币政策工具有效性未如预期及对需求的干预重视不足等问题。分析研究香港政府干预住房市场的经验与局限性,有利于内地政府提高干预住房市场的有效性。