老龄化、住房价格与宏观杠杆率

通过构建DSGE基准模型和扩展模型,引入家庭、企业及政府部门借贷机制和老龄化冲击,从住房价格及宏观杠杆率视角研究老龄化对金融稳定的影响。研究发现:考虑住房投资品属性的扩展模型中,面临老龄化冲击后,我国居民杠杆率会上升,住房价格会暴涨后暴跌,可能造成房地产泡沫破裂,从而引发金融危机;技术冲击还将使居民杠杆率进一步上升并使其与老龄化冲击叠加,房价暴涨暴跌的效应会倍增,房价泡沫破灭后,可能引发金融危机。不考虑住房投资品属性的基准模型中,老龄化冲击对房价从而对宏观杠杆率的负面影响明显减弱。我国必须构建"房住不炒"机制,完善及推广"以房养老"政策,营造良好金融投资环境,缓解老龄化对金融稳定的负面冲击。     

Impacts of Second Home Development on Housing Prices in the Southern Appalachian Highlands

This study estimates the value of socioeconomic, spatial and environmental attributes on housing prices of both urban and rural communities in the primary and second home areas of the Southern Appalachian Highlands, using the hedonic property price model. Distance and environmental attributes are valued more heavily in the rural communities of the second home area than in the urban communities of the primary home area. The effect of second homes on housing prices is mainly evident in the rural communities. Second home development impacts a home's value by US$2,378, or 4.2% of $56,245, the average value of a rural home.     

住房流动性对房价指数的影响及其定量分析

目前中国城市住房市场不稳定程度较高,这不仅体现为房价的迅速变化,而且反映在交易量的大幅波动上,后者就是住房流动性的变化。有学者研究指出,以实际交易价格为基础的房价指数可能会低估住房市场的波动程度。为了更准确地把握住房市场的运行状态,本文借鉴美国MIT的相关技术,分析了住房流动性（交易活跃程度）对房价指数的影响,并尝试将流动性信息引入房价指数当中。我们发现,住房流动性对于房价指数有较大影响,且符合人们对于市场走势的直观判断,能够较好地反映市场转折点。     

新加坡的组屋对我国公租房设计的启发

本文从分析新加坡组屋的规划指导方针以及新加坡公屋的建筑设计特点,总结对我国公租房建筑设计有借鉴的经验,旨在推动我国公租房设计的稳步发展,提高住房弱势群体的入住品质。     

Public Homeownership, Housing Finance and Socioeconomic Development in Singapore

This paper first presents an analytic review of Singapore public homeownership policy developments over the past 35 years. The analysis will then focus on the two main reasons contributing to the success of Singapore public homeownership: the country's model of public housing finance; and the significant role public homeownership has played in its economic development. Finally, the paper concludes that the Singapore public housing system is not a ready package that can be applied anywhere, but that it does offer experiences that could be useful for other countries.     

能源价格对能源强度的影响——以国内制造业为例

本文运用1985-2003年的时间序列数据，对我国制造业、能源价格和能源强度之间的关系作了实证研究。计量检验的结果表明，能源相对价格的上升对于降低总能源强度、石油强度、电力强度和煤炭强度具有积极的贡献。提高能源价格是改善能源效率的一个有效政策工具。     

成都市廉租房建设应用PPP融资模式的风险研究

当前成都市廉租房项目建设中存在融资难问题,探析廉租房建设中引入国外基础设施建设中常用的PPP融资模式。政府通过长期合同协议邀请私营部门参与项目融资、施工和运营。对于政府来说,投资更为经济,可以将一部分风险转移给私营部门。对于私营部门来说,通过投资和管理风险获取收益。文章采用模糊综合评价法对成都市廉租房采用PPP融资存在风险进行分析,为政府廉租房融资提供一条新的思路。     

Communication of Private Information and the Valuation of Initial Public Offerings in Singapore

This study examines a sample of 108 initial public offerings in Singapore between 1987 and 1993, and documents the effects of four channels of entrepreneurial communication, that is, retained ownership, audited report, auditor choice and underwriter choice on the valuation of new issues. Our results indicate that retained ownership and book value of equity are significantly and positively associated with the valuation of initial public offerings in Singapore. Underwriter choice and auditor choice are not significant in explaining the valuation of initial public offerings. Issues listed on the Main Board are valued higher than those on Sesdaq (Stock Exchange of Singapore Dealing and Automated Quotation). Firms choosing the auction system are valued higher than those choosing the fixed system.
This paper provides evidence on the valuation of new issues in an emerging market in the Asia-Pacific region. The results are of interest to investors, investment bankers and companies seeking a listing on the Singapore Stock Exchange. We provide some insights on how new issues in the Singapore market are valued.     

Small Cities Matter, Too: The Impacts of an Airport and Local Infrastructure on Housing Prices in a Small Urban City

Cities with small populations tend not to receive as much attention in housing hedonic studies as do large metropolitan areas despite their similar economic development goals (quality of life improvements for their citizens, etc.). However, small cities, with their relatively smaller number of amenities and features, tend to have fewer numbers of variables that operate to determine house prices. Therefore, hedonic prices can be estimated adequately for a single neighborhood in a small city with publicly available data, particularly for local officials who do not have the time or financial resources to complete detailed studies of their cities. In this study, a general model is estimated that uncovers the impacts of airport-related noise, local recreational amenities, public transportation services, and schools on housing prices in a small city in metropolitan Atlanta, Georgia, USA. The implications and usefulness of this approach to local economic developers and city planners will be discussed.     

高覆盖率保障房建设的融资方式

高覆盖率保障房制度,是彻底解决住房问题的唯一途径.要建立这一体系,关键就是要解决大规模融资的问题.否则,覆盖率就无法提高,分配就不可能公平,保障房制度就无法持续,甚至引发社会问题.“先租后售”保障房模式,为大规模利用市场资本建设保障房提供了基础.通过发行资产担保债券(Covered Bonds),结合公积金制度,就可以为绝大多数新增城市居民建设保障房提供融资.为此需要对现有的制度进行相应的改造.     

汉中房价影响因素分析

虽然政府对于房价的快速增长做出许多政策调整,可是房价还是处于只上不下的状态,给人民的生活带来巨大影响,为了分析汉中房价的影响因素,文章从消费者角度、房产商角度、市场调控、政府宏观调控四个方面进行分析。     

基于土地杠杆的住房价格动态分解

住房可分为土地和依附于土地的建筑物两部分。基于土地杠杆基本概念,利用我国35个大中型城市数据,将住房价格动态分解为土地价格和建筑物价格,考察我国住房价格增长中土地增值的贡献比例与速度。对土地杠杆假说的实证检验发现,拥有更高土地杠杆的住房,其增值速度会更快。通过对土地杠杆假说的实证研究,对于了解潜在的房价决定机制、价格指数建立、土地利用限制的成本评估,以及制定住房政策和评估住房市场的合理性等,都具有重要的作用。     

广州高房价背景下影响青年购房行为因素研究

1998年我国取消了住房福利政策,导致广州的居民开始要自行购房,购房热一时席卷广州市。随着房屋建筑成本的增加以及居民购房需求不断增多,广州市过高的房价对居民的生活带来了一定的困扰,尤其在青年群体中产生了很大的影响,对他们的购房产生一定的阻力。本文分析了广州市房价现状以及房价过高的根源,剖析了青年人广州购房的行为因素,最后提出相关建议,以其引导青年人正确购房。     

棚改货币化安置政策收紧对城市房价的影响

本文分析了棚改面积及货币安置户数对房地产价格的影响,剖析了棚改货币化安置政策对上述两个因素与房价关系的调节作用,构建了相应的调节作用模型。使用天津市2009-2018年的实际数据进行了模型的实证检验。结果显示,近年来天津市出台的棚改货币化安置政策对房价有一定的推升作用,而收紧的棚改政策,由于政策滞后性等原因,在短期内对房价的调节作用不大。     

区域城市间住宅价格波动溢出效应的内涵分析

为了明确住宅价格波动溢出效应所包含的深层内涵,并为以后的空间计量经济建模数据分析提供理论阐释,通过对波纹效应和波动溢出效应的概念归纳得出住宅价格波动溢出效应的定义,从基础理论支撑、主体关系、客体影响因素和存在环境四个方面构建其理论框架。最后,从城市层级、人口迁移、城市经济基本面和心理预期四个类别进行多层次的内在因果关系分析,得出其完整的形成机理。     

The Effect of Public Social Housing on Households' Consumption in France

The French public social housing sector offers rents which are more than 60% below market levels. The “loss” of the public sector landlords, estimated from the rent they could get for their apartments at market prices, amounts to 37 billion Francs per year for the 3 million public social apartments in France. This allows the social sector tenants to consume 10% more housing services and 11% more of other goods. The corresponding surplus gain is around 34 billion Francs. The surplus loss for the collectivity due to these transfers is thus 3 billion Francs, 8% of the transferred sums. As compared to personal housing subsidies, which represent half this amount for the same tenants, the surplus gains are much less concentrated on the poorest part of the population.     

我国四大城市住宅价格与租金的关系研究

近20年,我国城市住宅价格经历了大幅下跌与上涨,而同期租金逐年下降,房价与租金之间的关系令人关注。本文利用1993年第二季度至2010年第一季度的数据进行实证分析,结果表明北京、上海、广州和深圳的租金指数和房价指数之间不存在协整关系,说明住宅市场价格与租金不存在长期均衡关系,房价严重脱离了租金这一基本面的影响,不再遵循现值理论模型所揭示的两者之间的运行趋势,表明房价泡沫在长期积聚。为了预防市场泡沫破灭对经济体造成的严重冲击,政府应该严格监察与调控房地产市场。     

基于GIS的成都市商品住宅价格空间分布差异研究

对成都市2018年2月在售的76个中心城区住宅小区的价格进行收集和整理,结合地理信息系统(GIS)的空间分析方法,运用克里金(Kringing)空间插值法分析得出成都市住宅价格空间分布图。结果表明,成都市高价住宅呈现南北带状分布,同时存在以南边(高新区)为中心向四周扩散的趋势,不同区域房价差异较大且存在较强的空间依赖性。     

保障性住房供应体系重构下的公租房发展趋势

公共租赁房作为保障性住房体系的重要组成部分,其发展趋势值得关注。在归纳评述国内现有相关研究的基础上,采用文案调查和定性分析方法,分析了现阶段我国城市保障性住房体系现状及重构走向,进而提出公共租赁房的发展趋势,认为公共租赁房将成为保障性住房供应体系的主体,多种住房类型合并管理,租金收取实行分档回补,动态监管工作将会加大力度等。