Together or Apart? Monetary Policy Divergences in the G4

Open Economies Review - We evaluate monetary policy divergence in the G4. A Taylor rule is extended that admits a global element and also allows for unconventional monetary policy to be reflected...     

The Role of Monetary Policy in Japan: A Break in the 1990s?

This article documents time series evidence suggesting the case for a possible structural break in the role of Japan's monetary policy during the 1990s. It uses a simple vector autoregressive framework and offers some suggestive results: While a persistent effect of monetary policy on real output is detected over the full sample of 1975–1998 and the subsample that ends in 1993, such effect disappears with the recent subsample of the 1990s. The stability analysis also provides more specified evidence that there is a break in the reduced form dynamic system in 1995. Some interpretations are offered to intuitively support these findings. J. Japan. Int. Econ., December 2000, 14(4), pp. 366–384. Research Institute for Economics and Business Administration, Kobe University, Rokko, Nada, Kobe 657-8501, Japan Copyright 2000 Academic Press.Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E52, E32.     

Openness to Trade and the Potency of Monetary Policy: How Strong is the Relationship?

Economic theory suggests that an economy's openness to international trade reduces the ability of monetary policy to affect output. Using quarterly data from the 1960:1–1993:4 period for a set of eight countries (Australia, Canada, Germany, Italy, Japan, South Africa, the U.K., and the U.S.A.), this article's empirical results support this theoretical prediction: the more open the economy, the smaller the output effects of a given change in the money supply. This finding, robust across all the different specifications and estimation methods examined, has straightforward implications for stabilization policy. Moreover, it suggests that an economy's net benefit from joining a monetary union is increasing with the economy's openness to foreign trade.     

Indonesian Monetary Policy During the 1997–98 Crisis: A Monetarist Perspective

This paper defends the IMF's strategy of targeting base money (M0) in 1997–98 against the criticism by Grenville (2000) that it was destined to fail because M0 is mainly demand determined and the demand for it was increased by a large and unpredictable amount by the banking panic. Grenville contends that Indonesian monetary policy should have aimed at domestic price stability. It is argued here that the growth of M0 far exceeded what could be justified by last resort lending to accommodate the banking panic, and that rapid inflation could only have been avoided by preventing most of the expansion of the public's cash holding that actually occurred. Achieving a modest target for domestic inflation would not therefore have been very different in practice from setting tight limits on the growth of M0. In contrast, both these policies would have been very different from the loss of control over M0 that actually occurred.     

Introduction: A New Architecture or New System? A Survey of International Monetary Reform in the 1990s

The international monetary system (IMS) is a macroeconomic concept that encompasses the foreign exchange-rate regulation, the capital movement system, and all “the rules of the game” for the adjustment of international payment imbalances. The international financial architecture (IFA) is, in contrast, a microeconomic concept and should not be considered synonymous with the IMS. The IFA is one element of the IMS. The current set of international monetary arrangements has been frequently called a “nonsystem.” Today there are two missing pillars in the reform efforts: a framework for managing the interdependence among the macroeconomic policies of the global powers (the United States, Europe, and Japan) and the market-oriented approach to the financing of the IMF.     

Which Method Should the Central Bank Choose to Estimate the Model Economy? A Korean Monetary Policy Example

Abstract

To understand how the macro economy evolves, the central bank has two options in choosing how to estimate the economic model against actual data: one is to estimate each sector of the model piece-by-piece, and the other is to estimate the whole model altogether. This paper demonstrates the advantage for the central bank of estimating the whole model in terms of the estimation accuracy and the robustness of the resulting policy recommendations. For that aim, we construct a macro model for the monetary policy analysis of the Korean economy and estimate the model via the system approach and single-equation approach. We evaluate the data fits of the two estimation results and show that the fit of the system approach is far better than the other and comparable to other methods such as vector autoregressions. It is also shown that, if the two estimated models are equally likely, conducting the policy tailored for the model estimated by the system approach delivers better stabilization results for the Korean economy.     

The quantity–quality trade-off related to investment in healthy human capital: New evidence from the implementation of the “selective two-child policy” in China

Using data from China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), and employing the “selective two-child policy” as a quasi-natural experiment, this study provides empirical evidence of Becker’s quantity-quality tradeoff theory. We find that the selective two-child policy reduced households’ investment in health insurance for their first-child. The proportion of participated families and the amount invested in health insurance declined significantly among families in which one spouse was an only child. The reduction in investment in health insurance was more substantial when the first-child was a girl and when the first-child was younger. One likely mechanism was the wage penalty for motherhood. The relaxed birth policy led to a significant reduction in women’s income. As a result, households’ financial resources became more limited, and their budgets became tighter, leading to reductions in investments in the health of first-child.     

Monetary Policy in Austria–Hungary, 1876–1913: An Econometric Analysis of the Determinants of the Central Bank’s Discount Rate and the Liquidity Ratio

This paper presents a model to explain the official discount rate of the Central Bank of Austria–Hungary from 1876 to 1913. The discount rate is assumed to depend on the liquidity ratio of the Bank, defined as the ratio of its stock of metals to banknotes issued, and on changes in foreign discount rates. The paper also presents an equation explaining the liquidity ratio. We use “not equally spaced chronologically ordered data” referring to the 50 discount rate changes enacted. The regressions confirm that the liquidity ratio was the main determinant of the discount rate and that Germany (and not Great Britain) played a significant role in determining the Austro–Hungarian discount rate and the liquidity ratios, supporting the view that the classical gold standard was a decentralized multipolar system rather than a system fully dominated by London as suggested by Keynes. The regressions also suggest that, although Austria–Hungary had an inconvertible paper currency (1879–1892) and fluctuating exchange rates (1876–1895) and formally joined the gold standard only in 1902, it “shadowed” the behaviour of gold standard Central Banks with such consistency that the stability of the estimated regressions was relatively unaffected by the frequent institutional changes.

Cohesion Policy in the eu: Going Beyond Fiscal Transfers?

Should cohesion policy in the EU be reformed? This question becomes pressing in light of the coming enlargement of the EU. Indeed, without reform enlargement will involve an increase in the budget for cohesion policies, as well as a reallocation of funds across regions. Furthermore, it is an appropriate occasion to rethink the various rules and criteria associated with cohesion policies. Recently, the European Commission published its Second Report on Economic and Social Cohesion (henceforth SRESC, (2001)). The report praises the effectiveness of current cohesion policies and suggests a mere continuation of current practices in the future. This paper challenges this conclusion and discusses some options for reform. The paper starts with a brief introduction to the current cohesion policy and the changes that will occur in light of EU enlargement. Subsequently, we address two questions. Is there a need for cohesion policy reform? And if so, how should it be reformed?     

Foreign ownership and investment: do firms locate investments close to the headquarter?

Using an international panel data set of the European pulp and paper industry, we address the issue of a possible home-bias effect for real investments in plants with foreign and domestic locations. We find that there is no effect after controlling for firm effects and plant and firm size. These findings are rubust to a number of different econometric specifications, including a difference-in-difference approach. Our findings appear to be relevant for the debate on the effect of foreign takeovers. As far as we are aware, home-bias effects in real investments within multinational firms have not been studied previously.     

Bank Capital Regulation,Economic Stability,and Monetary Policy: What Does the Academic Literature Tell Us?

This paper surveys academic research exploring the macroeconomic and monetary policy implications of the Basel I and Basel II systems of risk-based capital requirements. This research indicates that regulatory tightening of capital ratios can generate aggregate shocks, that capital regulation can enhance the procyclicality already inherent in banking, and that capital requirements can influence macroeconomic outcomes and alter the monetary policy transmission mechanism. The paper offers suggestions for future avenues of research on the interplay between bank capital regulation, the economy, and monetary policymaking. Although any errors are my own, I received very helpful comments on earlier versions from Kenneth Kopecky, John Pattison, and Jack Tatom. I am grateful for research support from Networks Financial Institute.     

One Money and Sixteen Needs: Has the ECB’s Monetary Policy Become More Balanced Towards the Needs of the Member States?

In this paper we analyze whether the ECB’s monetary policy has become more balanced towards the needs of the individual member states with the passage of time. We assume that the ECB’s monetary policy stance is in line with a Taylor rule and based on the overall situation in the Euro area, more specifically on the Euro area inflation rate and the overall business cycle position in the area. The question therefore boils down to investigating whether inflation and business cycles have converged since the start of the monetary union. We show that the ECB, if in existence in the 1990s, would have had an impossible task. This is because inflation and business cycles still strongly differed in that time, although convergence substantially increased in the run up to the monetary union. In this respect, the decade under EMU drastically differs from the preceding one. This being said, the evidence for a further improvement in the course of the first decade of the new millennium is mixed. This is because although inflation has further converged, business cycles have shown a tendency for increased divergence. If, however, we are willing to put weights on inflation and output gap divergence (as implied by the Taylor rule), we conclude that also in the course of the period under EMU in general the ECB’s monetary policy has become more in line with the needs of the individual members. Looking at individual countries, we show that during the first decade of its existence the ECB’s interest rate was most fitted to the needs of France and Italy, and least to the needs of Ireland and Greece (both too low) and Germany (too high). To a lesser extent there were also mismatches for Spain and Portugal (both too low). In the more recent period since 2005, the mismatch between the desired domestic interest rate and the desired ECB rate has come down for most countries (most noticeable Germany). For Belgium (for which a higher interest rate was more appropriate), on the other hand, the mismatch increased. These overall positive findings, however, offer no guarantee that the task of the ECB will become easier in the future.     

Reassessing the Effectiveness of Industrial Policy in Indonesia: Can the Neoliberals be Wrong?

—The neoliberal interpretation of the Indonesian state suggests that industrial policy was incoherent, subject to rent-seeking, and irrelevant to Indonesia's post-1966 development success. A more nuanced micro-historical analysis of the state's interventions demonstrates that this oversimplification misses political elite objectives to overcome the “ekonomi kolonial” by using the power of the state and selective intervention to create a strong, integrated, diversified, and outward-oriented industrial economy (“ekonomi nasional”). Empirical analysis presented here suggests that Indonesia has largely achieved this objective. It also suggests that industrial policy has been more important than the neoliberal argument permits.     

Did the Glorious Revolution contribute to the transport revolution? Evidence from investment in roads and rivers 1

The Glorious Revolution has been linked with Britain's economic development in the eighteenth century. This article argues that it contributed to the early transport revolution. First, it shows that the regulatory environment became more favourable for undertakers, with their rights being better protected. Second, it shows that investment in improving roads and rivers increased substantially in the mid‐1690s shortly after the Glorious Revolution. Regression analysis and structural breaks tests confirm that there was a change in investment even after controlling for other determinants of investment. The results have implications for debates on the role of political change in British economic growth.     

China's outward foreign direct investment in the Belt and Road Initiative: What are the motives for Chinese firms to invest?

Because of the potentially large and important effects of the extremely ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) launched by China in late 2013, considerable attention has been given to the motives for, and repercussions of, the BRI-driven infrastructural projects. Yet, the non-infrastructural outward foreign direct investment (FDI) from China to BRI countries, which varies quite substantially across different sectors and different countries, has not yet received much attention. In contrast to some recent studies showing that the massive initiative has increased China's total FDI outflows to fellow BRI countries, in this paper, based on our sector-level difference-in-differences models, we find that effect to be statistically insignificant. Yet, at the same time, we provide empirical evidence on the sectoral pattern of China's outward FDI before and after 2014 indicating that China's FDI outflows to BRI countries have significantly increased in sectors characterized by overcapacity and contributing to pollution in China, thereby demonstrating that China's BRI-driven outward FDI has been very selective in terms of sectors. We confirm these findings with a variety of robustness checks and show that it is BRI countries with relatively low institutional quality that have been more likely to receive these types of FDI from China. We thus speculate that Chinese firms have been motivated to place FDI investments in BRI countries for the sake of alleviating China's own overcapacity and pollution problems. Our findings lead us to suggest that, although these sectoral patterns are consistent with the different stages of economic development in which China and its fellow BRI-identified countries find themselves, Chinese investors and host country governments should be more concerned with the potential for unwanted side-effects of the FDI investments so that the mutually beneficial effects of the BRI can be sustained into the indefinite future among all countries involved.     

One money to two monies? Monetary policy in the CFA franc zone, 1968-1993

This paper investigates the monetary policy implications ofthe CFA franc zone from the viewpoint of the stability of moneydemand during the period prior to the 50% devaluation of 1994and the imposition of restrictions on the convertibility ofthe two constituent currencies in 1993. By estimating the staticand dynamic money demand functions, money demand was found tobe structurally more stable for the CFA franc zone as a wholethan either for any of the constituent currency unions or, asexpected, for any of the individual countries. This means that,prior to 1994, the CFA franc zone could be considered as a singlemonetary area despite the existence of two currency unions.     

What Does Behavioral Economics Mean for Policy? Challenges to Savings and Health Policies in the Netherlands

Key findings in behavioral economics are that people’s behavior (revealed preferences) is often not in line with their intentions (normative preferences), that they are sensitive to the way choices are presented to them, and that their cognitive abilities are limited. This is manifest in particular in areas of intertemporal choice, like personal finance and health-related behavior. Policy makers can develop policies that help citizens to make choices that are more in line with their normative preferences. In this paper we summarize the behavioral evidence, discuss the motivations for interventions, and show how recent behavioral insights can help to improve upon existing policies. These new policies could be described as libertarian paternalism, and include setting defaults thoughtfully and using unorthodox commitment mechanisms.     

Monetary policy and the behaviour of inflation in India: Is there a need for institutional reform?

Inflation rates in a number of developed countries follow a common trend over the past five decades: inflation starts out low in the 1950s, rises for a time before peaking in the 1970s, and then falls back to initial levels. Interestingly the behaviour of trend inflation in India broadly exhibits such a pattern. This similarity in the behaviour suggests that any explanation of inflation ought to apply across countries. To this end we construct a reduced-form inflation model for India that encompasses various well-known policy mistake theories as special cases. The restriction imposed by each of these theories on the behaviour of inflation is tested empirically. Reduced-form estimates lend support to all these theories. Although the reason for the inflation bias differs from one theory to the other, the mechanism at the heart of these theories are in fact quite similar. They all lay responsibility for inflation with the nature of monetary institutions. We use these results to interpret India's inflation experience over the past five decades and discuss the implications for institutional reform.     

Policy-makers’ perceptions of the tourism–climate change nexus: Policy needs and constraints in Botswana

Tourism is a key sector for most southern African economies endowed with unique natural capital, and the industry is increasingly being used for socio-economic development and diversification of national economies in the region. However, it has become clearly evident that the natural capital upon which the sector depends is highly vulnerable to climate change. This has created urgent governmental needs to take action through policy formulation and implementation. The paper uses in-depth interviews to determine Botswana policy-makers’ perceptions of climate change and tourism with the aim of determining policy needs and constraints. The results reveal that the policy-makers do see climate change as a concern requiring urgent establishment of relevant policy. However, they foresee inadequate information as well as uncertainties surrounding the impacts of climate change on the natural capital. This may hamper the formulation and effective implementation of such a policy.