Imperfect financial contracting and macroeconomic stability

This paper studies the implications of imperfect financial contracting for macroeconomic stability in the context of a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model. We find that the equilibrium growth path might be indeterminate in an economy with financing frictions even if the aggregate production function exhibits constant returns to scale. Self-fulfilling expectations about the future price of capital lead to macroeconomic fluctuations in this economy.     

Sequential entry and plant location in oligopolistic competition

Weberian location theory is confined to a single firm framework, and pays very little attention to the interdependence among firms. To fill up this gap, this article incorporates oligopolistic competition into a simple Weberian model to investigate industrial location patterns when firms are shortsighted, enter sequentially, and locate once-and-for-all. It is shown that the location of a new entrant is closer to (farther away from) the market site compared with the existing firms if the industry is characterized by diseconomies (economies) of scale.     

Real Stock Returns and Inflation

This paper develops the relation between the real rate of return on the stock market and changes in the price level using a multiperiod economy with production. The observed relation between real ex post stock returns and inflation is shown to be consistent with equilibrium in an economy with rational investors. The relation between expected real returns and expected inflation is shown to depend on the form of the economy's production function and on the form of investor preferences. When the production function exhibits stochastic constant returns to scale, the model explains the negative relation between expected real returns and expected inflation which has frequently been observed in empirical studies.     

Returns to scale and asset prices

The q‐theory of investment is proposed to explain firm growth effects, where previous papers identify a negative effect of firm growth, including asset growth, real investment and net share issuance, on future stock returns. This paper uses returns to scale from the production function to test the dynamic q‐theory, which predicts that the firm growth effect is theoretically weaker for firms with decreasing returns to scale (DRS) than for non‐DRS firms. Our empirical results generally support the prediction of dynamic q‐theory. However, we find that the dynamic q‐theory explains little of the value, momentum and ROE effects from the standpoint of returns to scale.     

Endogenous Financial Constraint and Investment‐Cash‐Flow Sensitivity

This paper studies a dynamic investment model with moral hazard. The moral hazard problem implies an endogenous financial constraint on investment that makes the firm's investment sensitive to cash flows. I show that the production technology and the severity of the moral hazard problem substantially affect the dependence of the investment‐cash‐flow sensitivity on the financial constraint. Specifically, if the production technology exhibits almost constant returns to scale in capital or the moral hazard problem is relatively severe, the dependence is negative. Otherwise, the pattern is reversed to some extent. Moreover, the calibrated benchmark model can quantitatively account for the negative dependence of investment and Tobin's Q on size and age observed in the data.     

What have we learned from a decade of empirical research on growth? It's Not Factor Accumulation: Stylized Facts and Growth Models

The article documents five stylized facts of economic growth.(1) The "residual" (total factor productivity, TFP) rather thanfactor accumulation accounts for most of the income and growthdifferences across countries. (2) Income diverges over the longrun. (3) Factor accumulation is persistent while growth is not,and the growth path of countries exhibits remarkable variation.(4) Economic activity is highly concentrated, with all factorsof production flowing to the richest areas. (5) National policiesare closely associated with long-run economic growth rates.These facts do not support models with diminishing returns,constant returns to scale, some fixed factor of production,or an emphasis on factor accumulation. However, empirical workdoes not yet decisively distinguish among the different theoreticalconceptions of TFP growth. Economists should devote more efforttoward modeling and quantifying TFP.     

Consumption and Equilibrium Interest Rates in Stochastic Production Economies

In this paper, we analyze the behavior of equilibrium real interest rates in an identical consumer economy in which the preferences are represented by time additive logarithmic utility functions and production technologies are Cobb-Douglas with stochastic constant returns to scale. The following main results are established.

• (i) When there is no relative price uncertainty, it is shown that the equilibrium interest rate exhibits a mean reverting tendency. A nontrivial steady state distribution is found to exist for the equilibrium interest rate. The properties of the equilibrium interest rate are also derived and discussed.
• (ii) In a multigood economy, even with additive preferences across goods, the equilibrium interest rates depend explicitly on relative prices. The substitution possibilities in production technologies induce this result. This is in contrast to the findings of Richard and Sundaresan 11 who show that the analytical general equilibrium term structure of interest rates formula of Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross 5 is unaffected by the introduction of relative price uncertainty when the technologies are linear and hence involve no substitution.

Furthermore, we relate our results to those of Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross 5 , Breeden 3 , and Richard and Sundaresan 11 with special emphasis on stochastic production and realtive price uncertainty.     

Profitability,Value, and Stock Returns in Production‐Based Asset Pricing without Frictions

In a production‐based asset pricing model without adjustment costs and with decreasing returns to scale following Brock (1982), stock returns at the firm level are determined by profitability, the book‐to‐market ratio, and the change in future profitability prospects. Although firms with low book‐to‐market ratios are normally more profitable and profitable firms are predicted to have higher returns, the stylized fact that book‐to‐market ratios positively forecast returns still holds theoretically, but with specific predicted exceptions. These implications are confirmed empirically.     

Shareholder Benefits from Corporate International Diversification

This study provides further evidence on the rates of return realized by the shareholders of multinational firms relative to those of purely domestic firms. The results indicate that the risk-adjusted returns realized by the shareholders are identical across the two groups except where the MNC operates in competitive foreign markets. In that case, MNC shareholders experience negative abnormal returns. The study also provides further evidence on the risk-reduction effect of international diversification. The results fail to support the hypothesis that the beta is a convex function of the degree of international involvement. Finally, the paper provides some preliminary evidence on the effect of corporate international diversification on shareholders' returns. It is found that abnormal returns rise by some 18 percent during the 14 months preceding the initial foreign diversification.     

The effect of exchange rate fluctuations on multinationals’ returns

This paper examines if the type of exchange rate used or size of the movement in the exchange rate matters in estimating exchange-rate exposure of U.S. manufacturing firms. We find that switching from a broad trade-weighted exchange rate to a 2-digit SIC industry exchange rate increases slightly the number of significantly exposed firms. We also find that firms’ stock returns may be affected differently in periods of crisis and non-crisis; some firms have significant exposure only in crisis periods while others have significant exposure only during normal fluctuations in exchange rates.     

Production-Based Asset Pricing and the Link Between Stock Returns and Economic Fluctuations

This paper describes a production-based asset pricing model. It is analogous to the standard consumption-based model, but it uses producers and production functions in the place of consumers and utility functions. The model ties stock returns to investment returns (marginal rates of transformation) which are inferred from investment data via a production function. The production-based model is used to examine forecasts of stock returns by business-cycle related variables and the association of stock returns with subsequent economic activity.     

A Measure of Competition Based on 10‐K Filings

In this paper we develop a measure of competition based on management's disclosures in their 10‐K filing and find that firms’ rates of diminishing marginal returns on new and existing investment vary significantly with our measure. We show that these firm‐level disclosures are related to existing industry‐level measures of disclosure (e.g., Herfindahl index), but capture something distinctly new. In particular, we show that the measure has both across‐industry variation and within‐industry variation, and each is related to the firm's future rates of diminishing marginal returns. As such, our measure is a useful complement to existing measures of competition. We present a battery of specification tests designed to explore the boundaries of our measure and how it varies with the definition of industry and the presence of other measures of competition.     

Consolidation and efficiency in the US life insurance industry

This paper examines the relationship between mergers and acquisitions, efficiency, and scale economies in the US life insurance industry. We estimate cost and revenue efficiency over the period 1988–1995 using data envelopment analysis (DEA). The Malmquist methodology is used to measure changes in efficiency over time. We find that acquired firms achieve greater efficiency gains than firms that have not been involved in mergers or acquisitions. Firms operating with non-decreasing returns to scale (NDRS) and financially vulnerable firms are more likely to be acquisition targets. Overall, mergers and acquisitions in the life insurance industry have had a beneficial effect on efficiency.     

The Impact of Deregulation on Efficiency: An Analysis of Life Insurance Industry in Taiwan From 1981 to 2004

We examine the impact of deregulation and liberalization (D&L) on the efficiency of the Taiwanese life insurance industry from 1981 to 2004. We utilize the data envelopment analysis (DEA) to measure the efficiency performances and the Malmquist index approach to measure changes in efficiency and productivity over time. Both the DEA and Malmquist results show that the old domestic firms have been slightly impacted by the new competitors around 1992–1994 (the end of foreign and new local entry period and the beginning of post-D&L period). More important, our results show that the D&L does not have major adverse impact on the technical, cost, and revenue efficiency performances of existing domestic firms in the long run. The dominance of existing domestic firms has declined but persists throughout the sample period. In addition, our results show that it is relatively easy for new firms to become technically efficient in just few years after entering the market, but it is more difficult for them to become efficient in cost and revenue efficiency. We, thus, suggest that a new market entrant should take advantage of the existing mechanisms by acquiring an old (existing) firm, rather than establish a new one, if a new entrant wants to become efficient in cost and revenue efficiency in a short time.     

Anticompetitive Financial Contracting: The Design of Financial Claims

This paper presents the first model where entry deterrence takes place through financial rather than product‐market channels. In existing models, a firm's choice of financial instruments deters entry by affecting product market behavior; here entry deterrence occurs by affecting the credit market behavior of investors towards entrant firms. We find that to deter entry, the claims held on incumbent firms should be sufficiently risky, that is, equity. This contrasts with the standard Brander and Lewis (1986) result that debt deters entry. This effect is more marked the less competitive the credit market is—so more credit market competition spurs more product market competition.     

Value relevance of voluntary disclosure in the annual report

This paper examines whether the level of voluntary disclosure affects the association between current returns and future earnings. Economic theory suggests that firms might find it advantageous to provide additional pieces of information (i.e. voluntary disclosure) to investors and analysts. Our results indicate that more voluntary disclosure does not improve the association between current returns and future earnings (i.e. current returns do not reflect more future earnings news). This finding raises the question of whether voluntary information in the annual report contains value‐relevant information about future earnings or if investors are simply not capable of incorporating voluntary information in the firm value estimates.     

Small firms in the SSBF

This paper uses Survey of Small Business Finance data to better understand how the owners of small firms use decisions about legal organization, firm size, capital structure, and owner investment in the firm to manage firm risk. The main findings are: Firms with unlimited liability are smaller, both when measured by assets and number of employees, and tend to be less leveraged than those whose owners limit personal exposure to firm liabilities. Entrepreneurs tend to hold largely undiversified positions by investing heavily in their firms, and this does not differ appreciably by legal organization. The percentage of firms with limited liability has remained virtually constant through time, although within this group there is a trend toward hybrid legal organizations with beneficial tax treatment. We estimate return on assets and find that entrepreneurship is a very risky undertaking, with high upside gain. The possibility of high future returns helps explain the coexistence of a large percentage of firms with negative equity and low default rates. The shape of the return distribution and limited liability interact; the option to declare bankruptcy shields owners from personal loss in the lower tail of the distribution while preserving the potential for significant firm returns in the upper tail.     

THE EFFECT OF THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE MULTIDIVISIONAL STRUCTURE ON SHAREHOLDER'S WEALTH: THE CONTINGENCY OF DIVERSIFICATION STRATEGY

This paper presents evidence on the price effect of US firms announcing the implementation of a multidivisional management structure (M-form) and whether these effects are contingent on the existing diversification strategy (either unrelated, related, or vertical integration). Differnt patterns of excess returns and systematic risk (beta) changes are associated with different diversification strategies.     

Investor valuations of Japan’s adoption of a territorial tax regime: quantifying the direct and competitive effects of international tax reform

This paper examines the impact of Japan’s 2009 adoption of a territorial tax regime using event study methods which leverage individual firm characteristics to identify underlying drivers of market reactions. Differences in Japanese firms’ foreign and domestic effective tax rates yield an aggregate capitalization effect of \(\yen \)4.3 trillion, while firms with less prior foreign exposure and fewer opportunities for tax avoidance experienced relatively larger abnormal returns. We attribute these results to tax savings on existing undistributed foreign earnings, enhanced opportunities for international expansion, and cultural biases against tax planning. Spillovers to the US (through tax or firm competition) appear insignificant.     

The Importance of Cash-Flow News for Financially Distressed Firms

Previous studies have shown that stock prices are moved primarily by news about discount rates (expected returns). I argue that when a firm experiences financial distress, news about cashflows becomes more dominant in driving its stock returns. Applying Campbell's (1991) variance decomposition framework to financially distressed firms supports this argument. Furthermore, I find that more bankruptcies occur after negative shocks to expected cashflows than after positive shocks to discount rates; and that stock prices of distressed firms are less sensitive than those of sound firms to changes in equity risk.