Consistency of UK Pension Fund Investment Performance

Transition matrix techniques are used to relate the past and present performance of pension fund portfolios. In particular, funds are ranked to study the tendency of portfolios to remain in the same quartile of the ranking as they were in the previous period. For raw returns, funds in both of the top quartiles are found to be more likely to remain in the same quartile than would be expected by chance. This result can be taken as limited evidence for the consistency of performance. Similar systemic effects are observed on a risk-adjusted basis. There appears to be clear evidence that some fund managers can offer a degree of consistent good performance.     

CalPERS基金运作机制及对我国企业年金的借鉴

本文研究了美国最大的公共养老基金——加利福尼亚州公共雇员养老基金（CalPERS）的运作机制，包括治理横式、参与公司治理以及投资组台构成等，分析了CalPERS的改革动向及其含义，提出了强化我国企业年金理事会职责，改革企业年金理事会成员构成、引入外部独立理事、积极参与公司治理、投资组合多样化等政策主张。     

美国基金法上的民事诉讼机制研究及启示

保护基金持有人权益乃现代基金法制之灵魂。面对基金管理入侵害基金利益的种种不当行为，民事诉讼无疑将成为基金持有人维权首选的法律武器。作为全球基金业最发达的国家，美国正是通过构建一套完整可行的民事诉讼机制以实现对受害基金持有人的救济。这种救济包括《投资公司法》上的明示诉讼、判例法的默示诉讼及SEC的诉讼援助。为完善我国基金法以更好地追究基金管理人的违法责任，今后我国修订基金立法应有必要对之加以借鉴。     

上海与北京两市城镇基本养老保险制度运行比较——兼谈对事业单位养老保险改革的启示

本文通过对上海和北京两市基本养老保险制度运行情况的比较,以＂行政事业单位离退休经费＂和＂社会保障补助支出＂为突破口,分析了上海市城镇基本养老保险基金缺口较大和财政负担较重的原因,认为导致上海市城镇基本养老保险基金缺口逐年增加、财政补贴额度逐年增高的原因除了制度内赡养比降低、制度参数设计缺陷外,上海市较早启动事业单位养老保险制度改革也是重要的影响因素之一。不过,进一步分析认为,上海市将机关事业单位人员纳入城镇基本养老保险制度,表面上的确加剧了城镇基本养老保险基金缺口的形成,但是综合考虑财政支出情况看,将事业单位人员纳入城镇基本养老保险制度的改革还是有利于减轻地方财政支出的负担。在此基础上,提出了促进事业单位养老保险制度改革的一些意见和建议。     

公共部门养老保险隐性债务:国际比较

大多数国家针对公共部门工作人员设有单独的养老保险。这些保险未来的财政负担可能相当繁重,因为政府通常是雇用工作人员最多的部门,公共部门的养老待遇相对来讲也更加丰厚,而未来养老金待遇需要直接从国家财政(现收现付制)或积累不足的养老基金(基金积累制)中支付。一些国家有关养老金水平的论证和信息不透明,可能隐含巨额财政债务,将会转移到后代人身上。为了让各国之间就公共部门养老保险财政负担进行公平比较,本文建议根据统一标准对非积累制养老保险的债务进行测评和报告,以提高财政透明度,帮助决策。文章从经济合作与发展组织选取了一些国家,按公允价值估计2008年底的净负债值。这种财政负担也可理解为养老金隐性债务。     

基金过去的业绩会影响未来的风险选择吗

当基金的业绩表现较差时，基金经理是否会加大基金投资组合的风险呢？本文以Hsiu—lang Chen和George G．Pennacchi的基金经理组合投资模型为基础，分析我国基金业绩对基金投资组合风险的影响。从这一模型来看，基金过去的业绩排名并不一定会影响基金未来的风险选择，过去业绩表现较差的基金也不一定会倾向干增加基金投资组合的风险。另外，本文的实证结果也支持这一结论。随后本文又采用Logit模型来分析影响基金风险选择的因素，结果发现：基金经理从业年限越长、基金申购费和赎回费越低、基金资产净值越大以及基金成立时间越短，基金经理越倾向干在基金业绩表现不好时增加基金的投资组合风险。     

国外养老保险基金信托经验及其启示

当下,日益逼近的人口老龄化为养老保险提出了巨大的挑战。目前,我国的养老保险基金的运营管理存在诸多不合理之处。国外许多国家将养老保险基金交由信托公司运营管理的模式具有多重优势。因此,在我国引入养老保险基金信托制度既有必要又切实可行,借鉴国外成功做法和经验,应从运营模式、监管模式等方面构建我国养老保险基金信托制度。     

Do funds selected by managers’ skills perform better?

We construct a simple intuitive rating mechanism to evaluate stock picking and market timing skills of equity and hybrid equity fund managers in China. We find that both our skill-rated 5-star (SR-5S) fund and the Morningstar 5-star (MS-5S) fund portfolios outperform the market. The SR-5S fund portfolio outperforms its counterpart MS-5S portfolio in most situations, depending on whether portfolio performance is measured by the abnormal returns of the CAPM model, the Fama-French three-factor (FF3) model, the Carhart four-factor (CH4) model and the Fama-French five-factor (FF5) model. Both market timing skill and stock picking skill affect the performance difference between the SR-5S fund and MS-5S fund portfolios. Additionally, the departure of a SR-5S or MS-5S fund manager is associated with fund performance declines, and the declines in performance for SR-5S funds are generally larger than the declines for the MS-5S funds.     

中国养老保险改革20年回望与思考

中国近20年养老保险改革经历了前后两个不同阶段,如今再次面临方向和路径选择的十字路口。一个平台、两大板块、三层责任体系是中国新时期养老保险改革的不二选择。在养老保险改革路径和顺序选择越来越多地体现出公共选择和公共决策的政治性的当下,政府尤其是中央政府的责任担当至为重要。     

中央调剂金比例对养老保险基金地区差距的影响

本文根据现行企业职工基本养老保险基金中央调剂制度的相关规定,利用2017年不同省份的历史数据,通过定量测算考察了不同中央调剂金比例对缩小养老保险基金地区差距的影响,并分别从“补缺口角度”和“公平角度”提出最优中央调剂金比例的设定原则。测算结果显示:中央调剂制度可以在短期内缩小不同省份之间的养老保险基金差距,缓解部分省份的养老金支出压力,但是随着中央调剂金比例的逐步上调,可能会出现新的不公平现象。本文建议中央调剂金比例控制在5%左右。     

Termination Risk, Multiple Managers and Mutual Fund Tournaments

This study analyzes the risk-taking behavior of mutual fundsin response to their relative performance over the 1992 to 1999period. Our results show that managers of funds whose performanceis closer to that of the top performing funds have greater incentivesto increase their portfolios' risk than managers at the topwho exhibit a tendency to lock in their positions. The evidencesuggests that termination risk imposes a constraint on the risktaking behavior of underperforming fund managers and the winnertakes all phenomenon generates a strong incentive for the fundmanagers to be the top manager. We also analyze the differencein the risk taking behavior of funds managed by multiple managersand single managers. JEL Classification codes: G2 L2     

Termination Risk, Multiple Managers and Mutual Fund Tournaments

This study analyzes the risk-taking behavior of mutual funds in response to their relative performance over the 1992 to 1999 period. Our results show that managers of funds whose performance is closer to that of the top performing funds have greater incentives to increase their portfolios' risk than managers at the top who exhibit a tendency to lock in their positions. The evidence suggests that termination risk imposes a constraint on the risk taking behavior of under-performing fund managers and the winner takes all phenomenon generates a strong incentive for the fund managers to be the top manager. We also analyze the difference in the risk taking behavior of funds managed by multiple managers and single managers.     

Pension Plan Investment Management Mandates: An Empirical Analysis of Manager Selection

We examine the impact of several factors on the selection of portfolio managers for Australian pension plan mandates. Performance measures do not affect the probability of a mandate allocation. Pension sponsors tend to choose managers with top-quartile five-year performance who have recently beaten a market benchmark. Management expenses have a negative impact on a managers chances. A surprising result is sponsors tolerance for high portfolio trading costs. Mandates are spread across manager investment styles. The style and institutional attributes of preferred managers suggest trustees reputation and prudential concerns matter, particularly for the aggregate annual mandate allocations.     

When fund management skill is more valuable?

Does fund management skill allow managers to identify mispriced securities more accurately and thereby make better portfolio choices resulting in superior fund performance when noise trading – a natural setting to detect skill – is more prevalent? We find skilled fund managers with superior past performance to generate persistent excess risk‐adjusted returns and experience significant capital inflows, especially in high sentiment times, high stock dispersion, and economic expansion states when price signals are noisier. This pattern persists after we control for lucky bias, using the ‘false discovery rate’ approach, which permits disentangling manager ‘skill’ from ‘luck.’     

养老金业务全面风险管理

随着中国经济和金融体制改革的不断深入,社会保障制度特别是养老金制度也发生了剧烈的变革,逐步建立起社会统筹和个人账户相结合的养老保障体系,包括了国家基本养老保险、企业年金和个人储蓄养老保险三个支柱,养老基金也随之正式登陆中国资本市场。养老金是退休人员的养命钱,其性质决定了它在满足盈利性、流动性的前提下必须保持更低风险的特点,决定了它在风险管理上的高要求。     

后股改时代划拨国有股充实养老保险基金探讨

2006年是中国证券市场制度变革年,伴随股权分置问题的解决,证券市场进入了后股改时代。在“人口老龄化”趋势下,作为基本养老保险制度之本的养老保险基金正面临着严重的财务危机。本文分析了我国基本养老保险基金的收支现状,预测了基金的收支缺口,探讨了划拨国有股充实养老保险基金的必要性、紧迫性及操作设想。     

基金经理择时能力测度——基于看涨期权与无风险资产组合法

具备择时能力的基金经理往往能够通过预测市场未来走向并及时调整投资组合策略来给投资者带来较好的收益,合理恰当地对基金经理的表现加以评价能够正确引导投资者行为,促进我国基金业良好发展,因此对基金经理的择时能力加以测度是十分重要的.文章通过构建以沪深300指数为标的资产的看涨期权和无风险资产组合来模拟具有择时能力的基金经理在...     

养老基金的社会责任投资

社会责任投资(SR I)作为一种全新的投资理念,将社会、环境、人权等因素纳入融资标准。在倡导可持续性发展的今天,面对金融市场的种种不确定性因素,将这一理念引入到养老基金的投资决策中,无论从理论或实践的角度,都具有深远意义。本文从基本概念入手,考察了社会责任投资的发展轨迹,并从理论角度对其先进性和有效性进行探讨,进而分析了将SR I引入到养老基金投资中的可行性,最后结合国际经验和我国现实,提出了中国养老基金社会责任投资的政策建议。     

公共养老储备基金资产配置比较研究与启示——基于挪威、法国、爱尔兰、新西兰四国公共养老储备基金比较分析

公共养老储备基金的资产配置策略是以储备基金的营运目标为导向制定的。设定基准投资组合、分散化的全球资产配置、重视新兴市场与社会责任投资、再平衡策略与动态资产配置策略并重等成为近年来各国共公告养老储备基金资产配置的主要特征。基于全国社会保障基金的投资实践,文章提出了制定差异化的资产配置策略以实现不同阶段目标,投资监管模式和资产配置策略同步创新以实现投资监管与投资实践良性互动,加快资产配置策略的全球布局以实现区域经济套利和人口红利套利,注重储备基金的责任投资导向、凸显养老金绿色投资功能的改革建议。