Drivers of flood and climate change risk perceptions and intention to adapt: an explorative survey in coastal and delta Vietnam

Abstract

This article contributes to current research about determinants of climate change and flood risk perception, and intentions to take adaptive measures. We propose a research model that distinguishes between vulnerability and severity components of perceived risks, and adds perceived adaptive capacity as a third factor to predict the intention to take adaptive measures. We used this combined model as a conceptual lens for an explorative survey among 1086 residents of coastal and delta communities in Vietnam. Pairwise analyses revealed a significant association of flood and climate change risk perceptions with individual’s flood experience, climate change knowledge, frequency of community participation and socio-demographic factors. However, in multivariate analysis, the influence of most socio-demographic factors became weak or patchy. Flood experience was the most influential driver of flood-related risk perceptions but weak for climate change-related risk perceptions and behavioural intentions. Knowledge strongly increased the intention to adapt to flood and climate risks and the perceived vulnerability to and severity of climate change risks, but reduced the perceived capacity to adapt to climate risks. Frequency of community participation increased the perceived vulnerability and severity of climate change risks, the intention to adapt to both climate and flood risks and the perceived capacity to adapt to flood risks, but reduced the perceived capacity to adapt to climate risks. Our research confirms earlier findings that individuals’ knowledge, place-specific experience and social-cultural influences are key predictors of both flood and climate change risk perceptions and intentions to take adaptive measures. These factors should therefore receive ample attention in climate risk communication.     

Constituent Participation and the IASB's International Financial Reporting Interpretations Committee

Abstract

While international convergence of accounting standards is becoming more of a reality, the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) continues to seek greater acceptance and legitimacy as an institution. Constituent participation is one key component for an organization to obtain legitimacy and success. This study investigates constituent participation of one significant part of the IASB, the International Financial Reporting Interpretations Committee (IFRIC). IASB/IFRIC constituents are classified in two ways: (1) geographically (by country and region); and (2) stakeholder interest group (the accounting profession, regulators, preparers and users). Respondents writing comment letters in regards to IFRIC's first 18 Draft Interpretations are examined. A total of 272 respondents from 40 countries generated 714 comment letters. The European Union provided a majority of writers and letters, with the UK being the largest contributor. The USA, Canada and developing countries generated few letters. Constituent participation significantly increased over IFRIC's predecessor committee, but responses remain concentrated with 35 respondents, mostly professional accountancy bodies and accounting standard-setters, generating 58% of the comment letters. Users accounted for only 5% of letters. While improved constituent participation may support the notion of increased legitimacy, limited participation by some IFRIC constituents suggests that the IASB should further promote constituent participation to achieve greater legitimacy.     

Participation costs, trend chasing, and volatility of stock prices

We analyze an overlapping generations model with fixed costsof stock market participation. Participation in the stock marketis determined endogenously and covaries positively with precedinginnovations in dividends. The equilibrium share price is positivelyrelated to market participation of the same period and to informationabout future dividends. There is 'rational trend chasing' inthe sense that, although all agents are rational, market participationrises after an increase of the share price and falls after adecrease. Finally, we show that the endogenous fluctuationsof market participation lead to increased volatility of theshare price.     

Restructuring,consolidation and competition in Latin American banking markets

This study examines the competitive conditions in the banking industries of eleven Latin American countries for the period 1993–2000. For these countries, the time interval under examination corresponds to an era characterized by substantial reforms to restructure their banking systems, increased consolidation and foreign bank penetration. The banks in our sample are found to be earning their revenues as if operating under monopolistic competition, as in many other developed and emerging financial systems. The results indicate that, overall, market concentration is not significantly related with competitive conduct. At the country level, however, we do observe a decline in competition for Brazil, Chile, and Venezuela in late 1990s which may be attributable to increased consolidation. Further, we observe that deregulation and opening up of the financial markets for foreign participation serves as an important catalyst to increase the competitiveness of banking markets. Higher degree of competition in the sector, in return, is associated with reduced bank margins and profitability but improved cost efficiency.     

Risk at a turning point?

There is increasing recognition in comparative risk assessment of the intrinsic subjectivity of fundamental framing assumptions and the consequent necessity for active participation in analysis by all interested and affected parties. Despite this, there remains considerable inertia in the implementation of these insights in formal policy making and regulatory procedures on risk. Here, the issue seems as often to be seen as a need for better 'communication' and 'management' as for better analysis, with attention devoted as much to the classification of divergent public perspectives as to techniques for direct stakeholder participation. Pointing to the fundamental methodological problems posed in risk assessment by the conditions of ignorance and Arrow's impossibility, the present paper contends that public participation is as much a matter of analytical rigour as it is of political legitimacy. It is argued that straightforward techniques such as multi-criteria and sensitivity analysis, along with a formal approach to diversification across portfolios of 'less risky' options, may go some way toward addressing these apparently intractable problems.     

Efficient Recapitalization

We analyze government interventions to recapitalize a banking sector that restricts lending to firms because of debt overhang. We find that the efficient recapitalization program injects capital against preferred stock plus warrants and conditions implementation on sufficient bank participation. Preferred stock plus warrants reduces opportunistic participation by banks that do not require recapitalization, although conditional implementation limits free riding by banks that benefit from lower credit risk because of other banks’ participation. Efficient recapitalization is profitable if the benefits of lower aggregate credit risk exceed the cost of implicit transfers to bank debt holders.     

Perceptions and Attitudes of Different User-groups to the Role of the Budget,Budget Pressure and Budget Participation

This paper examines the perceptions and attitudes of three distinct user-groups to three important budget-related issues. The three user-groups are: accountants, senior non-financial managers and first line managers, each of which has direct contact with budget data in their normal work. The issues, which have been examined by questionnaire and interviews in thirteen medium or large UK companies, are: (a) the perception of the role of the budget in medium and large companies; (b) the use of the budget as a control device, the pressure that may be felt when this occurs and the behavioural consequences of such pressure; (c) the degree of participation in budget setting and whether there is any desire for increased participation. In some instances there were important differences between the user-groups; in particular concerning budget pressure and participation. The general textbook picture of the budget-setting process was not confirmed in certain important aspects. These results raise issues concerning the budgetary control process, including the effects of self-generated pressure, and the desire among accountants for greater participation in the budget process.     

Effects of the use of control systems

This research explored the moderating effects of subordinate participation in decision making and subordinate job difficulty on their responses to different uses of control systems by their superiors. In a sample of managers from a moderately large U.S. organization, both of these factors were found to moderate the ways subordinates responded to the perceptions that their superiors used control systems for goal setting, evaluation, problem solving, and contingent reward allocations.The results of the study indicated that the use of control systems for contingent reward allocation produced defensive subordinate responses under all conditions, but also produced the functional response of effort when subordinate participation was low and job difficulty high. The use for goal setting appeared to result in functional responses when subordinate participation was high, and in dysfunctional responses when participation was low. The use for evaluation and the use for problem solving both seemed to be aspects of a collaborative developmental use of the control systems. This use pattern appeared to have primarily functional effects, although the results were more functional when the subordinate jobs were not difficult, and when they participated in decision making. Based on the results several propositions are formulated for future testing.     

The corporate purchase of property insurance: Chinese evidence

Using a panel data set (1997–1999) for 235 publicly listed companies in the People's Republic of China (PRC), this study tests empirically whether the purchase of property insurance mitigates principal-agent (agency) incentive conflicts. In contrast to prior studies, we first estimate a probit insurance participation decision model and then a fixed-effects insurance volume decision model (with Heckman's sample selection correction) in order to shed light on the determinants of both property insurance participation and volume decisions. Our results suggest that a major motivation for the corporate purchase of insurance in China appears to be the mitigation of agency conflicts. Additionally, various ownerships seem to have different impacts on the corporate purchase of insurance in China. Moreover, the results show that the same factor can have different impacts on the insurance participation and volume decisions, and that binding financial conditions may be a key factor accounting for such observed differences.     

What Accounts for the Changes in U.S. Fiscal Policy Transmission?

Using vector autoregressions on U.S. time series for 1957–79 and 1983–2004, we find government spending shocks to have stronger effects on output, consumption, and wages in the earlier period. We try to account for this observation within a DSGE model featuring price rigidities and limited asset market participation. Specifically, we estimate the structural parameters of the model for both periods by matching impulse responses. Model‐based counterfactual experiments suggest that most of the changes in fiscal policy transmission are accounted for by increased asset market participation and the more active monetary policy of the Volcker–Greenspan period.     

Monetary shocks,exchange rates,and the extensive margin of exports

This paper develops a two-country Dynamic General Equilibrium model to assess the relationship between the real exchange rate and the extensive margin of exports. Exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices governs the relative strength of a demand channel onto the exporting decision of a firm. With incomplete pass-through, a favorable movement in the real exchange rate generates increased export participation and an expansion in the extensive margin of exports. This result is consistent with firm-level studies, and contributes to an ongoing empirical debate as to the importance of changes in export participation over the business cycle.     

Female labor force participation: an international perspective.

This article gives an international perspective in regard to female participation in the labor force. In most countries women contribute less than men toward the value of recorded production. Social environment, statistical inconsistencies and methods of recording labor all contribute to this inequity. In Britain for instance, women caring for the household duties are in some studies considered to be part of the labor force and in other studies they are not. Further, internationally, women often find themselves in casual, temporary, or seasonal work that goes unrecorded. Defining what "labor force participation" constitutes is a key starting point to any survey. At what age is one considered employable? What constitutes a person "actively seeking" employment? Economists often try to explain labor force participation rate by age, sex, race and income groups and use this information to cite trends. The income-leisure model theorizes that choice of work or non-work by women is based primarily upon wages for work vs. wages for non-work. This theory sees non-labor income exerting a negative influence. Empirical evidence, however, suggests that women will choose work if wages are good regardless of any non-work benefits. Because most men are permanently in the labor force, estimates of labor reserves and projections of supply focus mostly on women. International generalizations are often misleading since trends vary widely among countries. During the last 20 years the global female participation rate has remained almost constant, but this is misleading. The percentage of working women in industrial countries increased 10%; developing countries showed a decrease of 7%. Female rates are often tied closely to shifts in the overall economy, (e.g., a transition from an agricultural to an industrial economy often sees a drop in female labor because subsistence jobs are lost). Of course the ability of women to bear children and the social expectations regarding child care often play a role. It is common in western industrialized countries to see drops in female participation during childbearing years. Countries with the lowest female participation rates are those with strong religious views about women in society, (e.g., Catholic and Muslim countries).     

Factors affecting classroom participation and how participation leads to a better learning

The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, we analyze various course- and student-related factors that affect participation grades within several college accounting classes. The second purpose is to determine whether in-class participation grades have an effect on exam performance in these classes. We find that, unlike in liberal arts and sciences courses, in accounting courses, participation grades for female students do not differ from participation grades for their male counterparts, regardless of class level. Overall, course level and student major have no direct effect on participation grades; however, the accounting majors and students in the lower level courses have better attendance than do non-accounting majors and students in more advanced courses. We observe that class schedule, in particular class duration and semester, affects students’ participation performance. Lastly, we find that students who participate more in classroom discussions perform 25% better on exams than do those with lower participation grades. This relationship holds for the three elements of participation grading: frequency of participation, consistency of participation, and attendance.     

TEACHING NOTE Promoting participation-breathing new life into the old technology of a traditional tutorial: a teaching note

This note is an outline of our experience and a reflection on the lessons learned, when innovative teaching and learning methods were used to encourage participation in traditional tutorial classes. We hope that, by communicating our experience, readers will be encouraged to explore the identified approaches in their own courses. The problem of students' lack of participation in tutorials has long been recognized by staff and students. This problem is further exacerbated by the external factors of increased student numbers and more vocal employer opinions on graduates' lack of personal transferable skills. Three problems were identified as possible reasons for students' non participation in tutorials: dominance by one or a few students; students not forming a cohesive group; too many students in a tutorial. Strategies for dealing with these problems are detailed together with the results of our experience and conclusion on the success of each technique. The general conclusion is that it is possible to breath new life into old technology. Students can be encouraged to participate in a traditional tutorial by utilizing innovative teaching and learning strategies. We hope readers will learn from our experience and be encouraged to incorporate some of the strategies in their courses.     

Stakeholder participation in environmental knowledge production

Participatory approaches in environmental knowledge production are commonly propagated for their potential to enhance legitimacy and quality of decision-making processes, especially under conditions of uncertainty. This paper describes the development of the Stakeholder Participation Guidance for the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency as an attempt to put the rather theoretical ambitions of the participation literature into practice. The study includes an analysis of theories of ‘new production of knowledge’ and of the agency's position as an intermediary organization between science and policy, together with its participatory activities, to date. The Guidance is meant to suit different contexts, products and modes of assessments by the agency. Therefore, it cannot be a like a recipe book, but is intended to support and guide project leaders in their choices around stakeholder participation. The paper emphasizes the context dependency of participatory knowledge production and stresses the importance of reflection and transparency regarding the role of scientific advisors in the science-policy process.     

Representations of coastal risk (erosion and marine flooding) among inhabitants of at-risk municipalities

As part of an interdisciplinary research programme on coastal risks, a combined environmental psychology–geography approach was used to study representations of coastal erosion and sea flooding among inhabitants of coastal areas. The relationship between these representations and place, or more specifically sense of place, will initially be examined, followed by individuals’ preferred risk adaptation strategies. Face-to-face interviews were conducted with 894 inhabitants from five coastal municipalities in Brittany. Results show that coastal risks are not a top priority for respondents. Paying particular attention to respondents who spontaneously cited coastal rather than other risks or no risk, we show that their relationship to place differs from the other respondents, as do their preferred adaptation strategies. These results lead to a better understanding of attitudes towards coastal risks among inhabitants of at-risk areas and provide more in-depth knowledge on coastal zone vulnerability.     

“三农”综合保险的可持续性研究--以福建龙岩“三农”综合保险为例

“三农”综合保险的可持续性分为政府支持可持续性、保险经营可持续性、农民投保可持续性和成功经验的可推广性。不可持续的原因主要有：缺乏法律保障，政府支持具有不确定性能；农村税源流失、财政收入增速赶不上保费补贴增速；集中招投标式的市场准入与自由竞争的大方向相背；“三农”风险的重要性相对降低，投保率下降。应通过立法将政府支持固定下来；培育税源，防灾防损，抑制保费补贴的增速；借鉴国际经验，规定在农村地区开业的保险必须经营部分险种；提高农业收入在农民收入来源中的比重，稳定投保率。     

新生代农民工养老保险参与意愿及影响因素——基于安徽省调查数据

摘要：文章从理性选择理论出发,建立养老保险参与意愿模型,运用Tobit模型和安徽省微观调查数据研究了新生代农民工养老保险参与意愿及影响因素。研究发现,新生代农民工参与意愿较高,实际参与率较低;性别与婚姻对新生代农民工养老保险参与有显著影响,文化程度与年龄对新生代农民工养老保险参与没有显著影响;新生代农民工养老保险参与意愿概率不仅仅是其经济理性体现,更重要的是其非经济理性行为的体现,这些非经济理性变量对新生代农民工养老保险参与概率与数量都有非常显著的正向影响。     

台风风险的可保性及其市场供求行为分析

台风灾害每年都给中国东部沿海地区造成巨大的经济损失,但到目前我国保险市场还没有单一责任的台风保险来分担此风险。台风保险是一种准公共物品,如果政府能够介入该保险市场,其可保性则得以提高。对有政府支持的台风保险供求行为博弈分析表明,农户购买台风保险的保险费用占其总产出的百分比在农户和保险公司的决策中至关重要。     

Is it all about awareness? The normalization of coastal risk

Coastal risk is already high in several parts of the world and is expected to be amplified by climate change, which makes it necessary to outline effective risk management strategies. Risk managers assume that increasing awareness of coastal risk is the key to public support and endorsement of risk management strategies – an assumption that underlies a common worldview on the public understanding of science, which has been named the deficit model. We argue that the effects of awareness are not as straightforward. In particular, awareness of coastal hazards might not lead to more technically accurate risk perceptions. Based on research on risk perception normalization, we explored the hypothesis that coastal risk awareness reduces coastal risk perception – in particular the perceived likelihood of occurrence of coastal hazards – through its effect on reliance on protective measures to prevent risk. Individuals can rely on protective measures, even when those are not effective, as a positive illusion to reduce risk perception. This effect might be stronger for higher probability hazards and for permanent residents of costal zones. Data from 410 individuals living in coastal zones corroborated most of our expectations. Global results demonstrated a risk normalization effect mediated by reliance on current measures. Additional analyses made clear that this effect occurred in 2 of the 5 high-probability hazards (flood and storm), and not in the low-probability hazard (tsunami). Normalization might be more likely among high-probability hazards which entail catastrophic and immediate impacts. This effect was also found among permanent residents, but not among temporary residents. Results imply that coastal risk management might benefit from (a) taking risk perception normalization effects into account, (b) tailoring strategies for permanent and temporary residents and (c) promoting a higher public engagement, which would facilitate a more adaptive and effective coping with coastal risk than the use of positive illusions.