Cereal shortages and adjustment in the Sahel

In spite of insufficient agricultural and demographic statistics for this region of Africa, several estimates of cereal production per head suggest that the average harvest in these arid zones provides slightly less than the quantity needed for domestic consumption. Alarmed by the drought of 1968–1973 and the resulting famine of 1973,¹ the development agencies questioned the capacity of the Sahel countries to feed their populations. ‘Is self-sufficiency in food a realistic objective?’, asked Robert Hirsch at the Noakchott Colloquium.² Statistical analysis leads to the conclusion that improvement is technically possible, and that the eight countries of CILSS, as a whole, should be able to achieve self-sufficiency in millet, sorghum and maize. However, certain individual countries will not be able to meet domestic needs. Moreover, Hirsch states that urban demand is increasing for corn and rice, which are difficult to produce locally and costly to import. (CILSS is the Comité Inter-états de Lutte contre la Sécheresse au Sahel).     

Effects of the CFA franc devaluation on urban food consumption in West Africa: overview and cross-country comparisons

This article summarizes research and policy questions, and research methods and findings of four case studies of the impacts of the 1994 CFA franc devaluation in West Africa on urban food consumption. The case studies are household surveys from Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Mali, and Senegal. The research showed, in general, that, comparing food consumption patterns after the devaluation with those before, that: (1) total cereal intake fell, especially for the poorest; (2) the intake of imported rice held steady; (3) the intake of domestic coarse grains (millet, maize, sorghum) did not rise, except for an increase in maize intake in Burkina Faso; (4) only in Mali was there a significant shift to domestic rice; (5) imported wheat intake dropped; (6) roots, tuber and plantain consumption did not receive a boost; (7) there was an alarming “de-diversification” of the diet, especially for the poorest with reductions in meat, edible oils, and vegetables/fruit, as well as imported milk; there was, however, some increase in domestic oils/butters consumption; (8) there was some “individualization” of consumption patterns with increased importance of the informal restaurant sector. The most striking results in the context of the policy debate are that cereal intake fell, and that the (expected) shift from imported rice to local coarse grains did not occur. The lack of such a shift is explainable in terms of the lackluster supply response of the coarse grain sectors, and the resilience of rice demand based on its convenience of processing and preparation for the urban consumer. These results together imply: (1) the economics and technology of agro-processing of coarse grains need to return to the center of the cereals debate in West Africa; (2) emphasis on the capacity of local coarse grain and domestic rice producers to respond to incentives needs to be increased.     

Consumer acceptability of yellow maize products in Zimbabwe

This study analyzes consumers’ awareness of and attitudes towards yellow maize products in Zimbabwe and suggests intervention strategies that will ensure increased production and consumption of the crop, which is rich in provitamin A to help prevent the incidence of vitamin A deficiency prevalent among vulnerable groups. Data from 360 randomly selected rural and urban households show that yellow maize is known to all but few are aware of its nutritional qualities or consume it. The main source of supply is imported food aid. Rich in oils, carotenoids and fructose, yellow maize easily undergoes chemical changes to produce unacceptable organoleptic properties (or bad taste) if poorly handled during importation. These two factors are responsible for it being perceived inferior to white maize by consumers. Quality assurance during importation can improve consumer confidence but a long-term strategy will be to vigorously promote domestic production of yellow maize varieties rich in high levels of β-carotene that meet the preferences of consumers. Drawing from a probit model regression analysis, nutritional education can potentially promote yellow maize consumption, especially if targeted at low income households. Domestic production and consumption of yellow maize will decrease vitamin A deficiency among vulnerable groups and improve food insecurity through reduced grain prices and increased incomes for farmers. These results draw attention to the need for policy makers in developing countries to review their agricultural policies to ensure that they do not undermine the local production and consumption of nutritionally valuable crops.     

Farmers' consumption of an imported cereal and the cash/foodcrop decision: An example from Senegal

The effects of key agricultural policies on Senegalese farmers are analysed through a survey combining farming systems research methods, family budgets, dietary and anthropometric studies for the same rural households. Policies impact their food consumption through farm and non-farm incomes, prices of inputs, extension and research, and the prices of basic foods. Food consumption is closely related to family success in mixed cropping, but millet remains the basic rural food. Although rice has deeply penetrated rural markets, a maintenance of export earnings will require simultaneous gains in yields for both cash and traditional foodcrops.     

The impact of maize price shocks on household food security: Panel evidence from Tanzania

Using three waves (2008/09, 2010/11, 2012/13) of the Tanzanian National Panel Survey, this study investigates the impact of maize price shocks on household food security. Between 2008/09 and 2012/13, calorie intake stagnated for urban households, yet sharply deteriorated for rural households. The latter was driven by a significant decline in the consumption of the major staple maize which showed strongest price hikes among all major food items. Fixed-effects regressions indicate a clear negative relationship between maize prices and average household energy intake. Almost all population groups were found to be negatively affected by maize price shocks, with rural landless households being the most vulnerable group. In particular, a 50 percent rise in maize prices decreases caloric intake for rural (urban) households on average by 4.4 (5.4) percent, and for rural landless households by 12.6 percent. Results further indicate that subsistence agriculture can act as an effective strategy to insure against food price volatility.     

Food security implications of staple food substitution in Sahelian West Africa

Low-income households in Sahelian West Africa face multiple shocks that risk compressing their already-low food consumption levels. This paper develops a multi-market simulation model to evaluate the impact of common production and world-price shocks on food consumption of vulnerable groups in Sahelian West Africa. Empirical analysis confirms that poor households bear the brunt of ensuing consumption risks, particularly in closed markets, where trade barriers restrict imports, and the poor find themselves in a bidding war with richer consumers for limited food supplies. In the absence of trade, a drought that reduces domestic rainfed cereal production by 20% would compress already low calorie consumption of the rural poor by as much as 15%, four times as much as other household groups. Conversely, a 50% spike in world rice prices hits the urban poor hardest, compressing calorie consumption by up to 8%.Policy responses need to focus on two basic mechanisms that can help to moderate this pressure – consumer substitution among staple foods and trade. Immediately south of the Sahel, coastal West African countries enjoy higher rainfall, dual rainy seasons, more stable staple food production based on root crops (cassava and yams) as well as frequent double cropping of maize.Our simulation results suggest that regional trade in maize, yams and cassava-based prepared foods like gari and attieké could fill over one-third of the consumption shortfall resulting from a major drought in the Sahel. Increasing substitutability across starchy staples, for example through expansion of maize, cassava and sorghum-based convenience foods, would further moderate consumption pressure by expanding the array of food alternatives and hence supply responses available during periods of stress.     

Local impacts of a global crisis: Food price transmission,consumer welfare and poverty in Ghana

This paper takes a local perspective on global food price shocks by analyzing food price transmission between regional markets in Ghana. It also assesses the impacts of food price increases on various household groups. Taking the 2007–2008 global food crisis as an example, we show that prices for domestic grain products are highly correlated with world market prices. This is true both for products for which Ghana is highly import-dependent (e.g., rice) and the products for which Ghana is self-sufficient (e.g., maize). The econometric results also show that price transmission is high between regional producer markets and markets located in the country’s largest cities, and the distance between producer and consumer markets and the size of consumer markets matter in explaining the price transmission. The welfare analysis for households as consumers shows that the effect of world food prices appears relatively modest for the country as a whole due to relatively diverse consumption patterns within country. However, the national average hides important regional differences, both between regions and within different income groups. We find that the poorest of the poor—particularly those living in the urban areas—are hardest hit by high food prices. The negative effect of the food crisis is particularly strong in northern Ghana. The main explanations for this regional variation in the price effect is the different consumption patterns and much lower per capita income levels in the North of Ghana compared to other regions in the country.     

Prospects for food demand and supply in Central Asia

Central Asia has experienced massive economic and social shocks during the past decade following the dissolution of the former Soviet Union. Demand for cereals, particularly for staple cereals and meats, has fallen significantly even as production and productivity have plummeted. Although agricultural reforms were launched in 1991, the performance of the agricultural sector has been weak across the region. Prospects for food security in Central Asia appear mixed. Projections indicate that a growing and urbanizing population in Central Asia with rising incomes will increase demand for cereals by 32% between 1995 and 2020 to reach 24 million tons, and for meat by 47% to reach 2.9 million tons. Improvements in crop productivity will be essential to meet the increases in demand projected for the region. Cereal production is forecast to keep pace with demand such that Central Asia will be virtually self-sufficient in cereals. However, national food self-sufficiency or food security does not necessarily translate into household or individual food security. Moreover, self-sufficiency comes with a high price-tag of opportunities foregone and inappropriate use made of resources. Given the growing enthusiasm for food self-sufficiency in Central Asia, it is imperative that research be undertaken to assess the full costs and benefits of such a policy.     

Implications of rice policies for farmers: Selected South East Asian countries

Varying levels of rice selfsufficiency have been reached by the agriculture-based economies of Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand. The author reviews the major agricultural policies adopted by these countries to provide adequate rice for their domestic populations. While rice production has increased, the distribution of its benefits has been poor. The need to continue rice consumption subsidies is questioned, particularly in cases when they do not benefit the target groups of poor for which they were originally intended. The author proposes a re-examination of policies, emphasizing the need to strengthen development efforts to promote both the production and consumption of other staple food crops.     

Ethiopia's agrarian policy and its effects

The author examines the effects of Ethiopia's agarian policy on food and fuelwood scarcities. He argues that the policy, which is contingent upon various cooperative strategies of maximization of self-interest, and whose aims are to increase productivity and achieve food self-sufficiency, is misguided, and contradicts its stated objectives. Above all, the policy exacerbates the worsening problem of fuelwood shortages, and is creating conditions which will make food scarcer still.     

Price policy and food consumption in urban Mali

This study investigates the food consumption patterns of different income classes in urban areas of Mali in order to assess the probable effects on dietary adequacy of the expected increase in the consumer price of rice brought about by food policy reform, initiated in 1981. The results are to a degree counterintuitive, demonstrating that understanding consumption patterns and their determinants is critical to informed policy making.     

Stabilizing food markets in eastern and southern Africa

A major challenge for agricultural policy in Africa is how to address the market instability-related causes of low farm productivity and food insecurity. This paper highlights structural changes affecting the behavior of food markets in eastern and southern Africa and discusses their implications for the design of strategies to stabilize food prices. These changes include (1) an increasing trend in maize prices toward import parity levels, reflecting an emerging structural maize deficit in much of the region; (2) increasingly diversified food consumption patterns in both rural and urban areas; (3) highly concentrated marketed maize surplus, which have largely unrecognized implications for the magnitude of price risk faced by most farm households; and (4) the strategic interactions between private and public marketing actors leading in some cases to heightened market instability and food crises. In the prevailing dual market environment now characterizing most of the region, greater coordination, transparency, and consultation between private and public market actors is needed to achieve reasonable levels of food price stability and predictability.     

Agricultural policy reforms and food security in Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan

This paper provides an overview of agricultural policy reforms and their impact on food security in Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. Owing to increasing hostility in regional trade among the countries of Central Asia, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, like their neighbors, have chosen to follow a path of food self-sufficiency, which has biased their agricultural systems towards grain production. The paper finds that the land reforms in these two countries, which have dismantled the state farms, have resulted in reduced productivity of crops and declining food availability at the household level. It argues that reversing this trend will require increased investment in rural infrastructure and agricultural research to improve crop yields, and in the short-term, food security interventions to protect the poor and vulnerable.     

Food self-sufficiency: Making sense of it,and when it makes sense

Food self-sufficiency gained increased attention in a number of countries in the wake of the 2007–08 international food crisis, as countries sought to buffer themselves from volatility on world food markets. Food self-sufficiency is often presented in policy circles as the direct opposite of international trade in food, and is widely critiqued by economists as a misguided approach to food security that places political priorities ahead of economic efficiency. This paper takes a closer look at the concept of food self-sufficiency and makes the case that policy choice on this issue is far from a straightforward binary choice between the extremes of relying solely on homegrown food and a fully open trade policy for foodstuffs. It shows that in practice, food self-sufficiency is defined and measured in a number of different ways, and argues that a broader understanding of the concept opens up space for considering food self-sufficiency policy in relative terms, rather than as an either/or policy choice. Conceptualizing food self-sufficiency along a continuum may help to move the debate in a more productive direction, allowing for greater consideration of instances when the pursuit of policies to increase domestic food production may make sense both politically and economically.     

Food price seasonality in Africa: Measurement and extent

Everyone knows about seasonality. But what exactly do we know? This study systematically measures seasonal price gaps at 193 markets for 13 food commodities in seven African countries. It shows that the commonly used dummy variable or moving average deviation methods to estimate the seasonal gap can yield substantial upward bias. This can be partially circumvented using trigonometric and sawtooth models, which are more parsimonious. Among staple crops, seasonality is highest for maize (33 percent on average) and lowest for rice (16½ percent). This is two and a half to three times larger than in the international reference markets. Seasonality varies substantially across market places but maize is the only crop in which there are important systematic country effects. Malawi, where maize is the main staple, emerges as exhibiting the most acute seasonal differences. Reaching the Sustainable Development Goal of Zero Hunger requires renewed policy attention to seasonality in food prices and consumption.     

National self-sufficiency in food

Developed countries as a group, and most of them individually, show a definite, significant trend towards higher degrees of overall food self-sufficiency while at the same time there is international consensus on the appropriateness of the same objective for developing countries and its incorporation in the plans of these countries. The author considers what the right balance of policies on selfsufficiency should be at the national, regional and international level after examining the trends, ways of measuring self-sufficiency, and future prospects.     

Regional trade,government policy and food security: Recent evidence from Zambia

Given heavy dependence on rainfed maize production, countries in East and Southern Africa must routinely cope with pronounced production and consumption volatility in their primary food staple. Typical policy responses include increased food aid flows, government commercial imports and stock releases, and tight controls on private sector trade. This paper examines recent evidence from Zambia, using a simple economic model to assess the likely impact of maize production shocks on the domestic maize price and on staple food consumption under alternative policy regimes. In addition to an array of public policy instruments, the analysis evaluates the impact of two key private sector responses in moderating food consumption volatility – private cross-border maize trade and consumer substitution of an alternate food staple (cassava) for maize. The analysis suggests that, given a favorable policy environment, private imports and increased cassava consumption together could fill roughly two-thirds of the maize consumption shortfall facing vulnerable households during drought years.     

China's food and agriculture: A turning point

The prospects for food and agriculture in China depend upon the prospects for changes in the population between urban and rural sectors, changes in the levels of food consumption in these sectors, and the potential for increasing production in response to increased demand. Prof Ishikawa examines the elements influencing demand pressure, the economics of mechanisation in China, and the economic and social conditions in which the mechanisation can be realised. He concludes that China is facing a new situation in which a significant change in either or both the resource allocation pattern and the incentive system will be required.     

Cereal grain production: Potential for Latin America

The authors analyse the potential for self-sufficiency in cereal grain production in six different Latin American countries. Based on the assumptions and empirical results of this study, most Latin American countries, with the likely exceptions of Argentina and Colombia, will find it virtually impossible to become selfsufficient in cereal grain production in the 1980s. However, increased investment in agricultural research and the expansion of fertilizer use can help thwart potential cereal grain deficits. Fertilizer and cereal grain imports will be required in most countries to help increase the available supply of cereal grain.     

Potential for recoupling production and consumption in peri-urban territories: The case-study of the Saclay plateau near Paris,France

With growing urbanization worldwide, urban sprawl is leading to the extension of peri-urban areas in most countries. These dynamic areas, subjected to pressure from urban planning, are contributing to the uncoupling of consumption and local agriculture. In this article we study the feasibility of recoupling production and consumption within the agri-food system of the peri-urban area of the Saclay plateau near Paris.By using a nitrogen flow analysis based on the concept of territorial ecology, we analysed quantitative and qualitative data providing information in terms of system performances. By calculating two local efficiency indicators (one production-based indicator and one consumption-based) and a self-sufficiency capacity indicator, we assess the current and potential coupling between production and consumtion. A typology of farming systems was constructed to assess the more efficient type of farms in terms of “localisation within the agri-food system.The Saclay plateau has many assets to increase local agri-food system efficiency and to work towards “agricultural symbiosis”. However, a number of obstacles remain on both the production and the demand sides. Our study illustrates the lack of consideration of the productive function of urban and peri-urban agriculture in urban planning projects. The methods developed and the results achieved are a step towards a better integration of food issues in land planning.