Technological convergence and trade patterns

Textbook trade theory would suggest that emerging and developing countries specialize in lower-tech industries. In this paper the authors take a dynamic view on development and trade integration and distinguish three types of catching-up processes (the continuous-convergence approach, the climbing-up-the-ladder approach and the jumping-up approach). Using data for 25 countries and 32 industries the authors empirically analyze the different patterns of catching up over the period from 1981 to 1997. Further, they discuss linkages between technological convergence, dynamics of comparative advantage and trade patterns. JEL no. F14, L6, O10, O14, O30, O41.     

贸易自由化模式与中国的比较优势

对双边自由贸易组织的现实合理性及其过渡性分析发现,基于经济利益的考虑,亚洲的发展中国家和地区倾向于选择双边先行的自由贸易体制。要获得更大的贸易收益,中国必须积极主动融入到区域经济一体化进程。在贸易收益只取决于相对偏好和相对人口比例大小的条件下,中国和东盟建立自由贸易区符合国家战略的必然选择,同时中国应加快实施战略性贸易政策,扶植高新技术产业,促进经济结构升级,在东亚经济一体化进程中掌握先发的制度优势和技术优势。     

安徽省农业外贸竞争优势的挖潜与培育研究

安徽农业产品出口增长较快,但目前面临着部分农产品出口下降,出口产品层次低、品种结构单一,出口市场较为集中等不利局面;农业产业、产品结构不合理,农民文化素质较低,科技对农业的贡献率低,农业标准化程度低,缺乏大型生产、贸易企业和国际品牌等因素制约了安徽农业的竞争优势     

企业如何面对和参与供应链竞争

只有正确认识我国所具有的比较优势 ,制定合理的经济和贸易发展战略 ,才能充分发挥我国现有的比较优势 ,提高我国的国际竞争能力 ,获取更多的贸易利益。     

中国贸易模式对贸易利益的影响分析与外贸战略调整

20世纪90年代以来,中国的商品出口规模不断扩大,但在对外贸易迅速发展的同时出现了贸易条件恶化、贸易摩擦增多,以及比较优势升级缓慢等问题,这些问题直接影响到中国贸易利益的获取。针对这些现象,文章分析了中国当前贸易模式的几个特征以及这些特征对中国当前和未来获取贸易利益造成的不利影响,并根据分析结果提出适度控制对外贸易规模、逐渐向内需主导型经济过渡和推动比较优势升级的中国外贸战略调整政策建议。     

Revealed Comparative Advantage, Intraindustry Trade and the US Manufacturing Trade Deficit with China

This paper uses 4‐digit SITC data to identify groups of manufactured goods exported from China to the USA that have strong or rising comparative advantages. We find that most of the trades are inter‐industry, with only a small portion being vertical intra‐industry trades (IIT). Our results confirm that Sino‐US trade is complementary. We construct an imbalanced index of IIT, and identify the goods groups that aggravate and reduce the US trade deficit with China. We suggest an approach for calculating a dynamic IIT index that might mitigate the aggregation bias of the existing methodologies. Our improved index reveals that the dynamic imbalances of US‐Chinese IIT in manufactured goods are worse than their static IIT imbalances, which means that it would be difficult to correct the deficit of US trade with China in the following couple of years. Adjusting and improving the structures of industries and products is China's major task for sustainable trade growth.     

Comparative Advantage,Trade, and Transboundary Pollution

It is common for studies on trade and environment issues to model trade patterns as driven by environmental considerations. Under conditions of trade liberalization, these studies predict the rise of pollution havens and an increase in global pollution. The extant empirical literature, however, gives only mixed support at best for the notion that trade patterns are influenced by environmental issues. We develop a simple model to investigate whether trade based on traditional comparative advantage may lead to increased global pollution. We find that trade may lead to increased global pollution if both trading nations exhibit increasing marginal disutilities of pollution.     

比较优势、囚徒困境与制度建设

比较优势理论认为,只要贸易双方都按照自身的比较优势进行分工和合作,则最终的结果对于贸易双方来说都是有利的。但在现实生活中,贸易双方往往没有遵循比较优势理论进行分工。出现这种社会现象的根源在于缺乏有效的利益制约制度。本文分析了这种制度缺乏的原因,并提出了完善它的基本思路。     

Expectation-driven fluctuations and welfare loss under free trade in two-country models

This paper investigates the interlinkage in the business cycles based on expectation-driven fluctuations of large-country economies in a free-trade equilibrium. We consider a two-country, two-good, two-factor general equilibrium model with sector-specific externalities. We show that some country's expectation-driven fluctuations can spread throughout the world once trade opens even if the other country has determinacy under autarky. We thus prove that under free trade, globalization and market integration can have destabilizing effects on a country's competitive equilibrium. Finally, we characterize a configuration in which opening to international trade improves the stationary welfare at the world level but deteriorates the stationary welfare of the country that imports investment goods and exports consumption goods. We conclude that in opposition to the standard belief, international trade might not be beneficial to all trading partners in the long run.     

Home-Market and Factor-Endowment Effects in a Gravity Approach

This paper shows how the home-market effect can be estimated in the generalized gravity equation of Bergstrand, taking into account traditional comparative advantage effects arising from differences in factor endowment. The empirical results suggest the presence of significant home-market effects for differentiated goods in many manufacturing industries which may be capital intensive or labour intensive. At the same time, our results suggest that home-market effects can only be detected for data disaggregated at the industry level and not for aggregated data. JEL no. F 12     

Skills and changing comparative advantage: The case of Japan

Is the skill gap of net exports widening? This question is nontrivial for many industrial countries because, with the rapid growth of emerging countries, human capital is considered one of the most important sources of comparative advantage. Theoretically, however, the answer is not necessarily obvious because of changing comparative advantage. This paper attempts to answer this question by extending the analysis of Wolff (2003) and by focusing on one of the largest OECD countries, Japan, for the period 1980–2005. The results indicate that the answer to the above question may well be “no.” Although Japan is still a net exporter of skill-intensive goods, the skill gap of net exports has been narrowing since the mid-1990s, mainly as a result of the changes in the composition of trade. This implies that some OECD countries, including Japan, may have been losing their comparative advantage in skill-intensive goods in recent years.     

消费税结构的优化

本文从绿色贸易壁垒的理论基础及其表现形式出发 ,分析了绿色贸易壁垒对我国外贸的影响 ,最后从绿色技术指标体系、绿色法律制度、加强国际磋商与合作三个方面提出了相关法律对策。     

人民币升值对我国贸易条件的影响分析

以弹性分析论为基础考察人民币升值对中国贸易条件的影响,通过对我国进出口弹性的分析并结合中国实际状况说明人民币升值会改善中国的贸易条件。     

从地区比较优势看江西旅游产业的发展

旅游产业是朝阳产业,也是新世纪中国经济的支柱产业。江西拥有较为丰富的旅游资源和发展旅游业的良好机会,但由于地理位置、旅游基础设施、服务理念、市场机制等方面的原因,许多资源尚未被充分利用。江西旅游产业的发展需要进一步改善环境、扩大宣传、树立品牌和坚持可持续原     

外资利用与中国产业比较优势的相关性研究

改革开放以来,外商直接投资成为中国经济发展的主要动力之一,外资对经济增长和产业结构升级的拉动作用都非常明显。本文分析中国三大产业的外资利用情况,发现相对于制造业而言,服务业在利用外资和提升产业比较优势上都明显落后,但是服务业内部却存在相对比较优势差异。通过实证检验我们发现服务业与农业的外资利用程度越高,产业的比较优势越明显,制造业则相反。     

Comparative advantages in U.S. bilateral services trade with China and India

Using bilateral trade data for 16 service categories, this paper examines the patterns, evolution, and determinants of comparative advantage (CA) in U.S. services trade with China and India from 1992 to 2010. The results indicate that the U.S. has a CA in most services, except in more traditional ones, such as travel and transportation. However, India, and more recently China, gained a CA in modern services, such as computer and information services during the period considered in this paper. An examination of the distributional dynamics indicates that the likelihood of U.S. gaining CA over an initial position of comparative disadvantage (CDA) in its trade of a particular service with India is higher than the probability of losing its initial dominance. In contrast, the U.S. CA or CDA vis-à-vis China exhibits high levels of persistence over time. The regression results suggest that relative abundance of sector-specific labor, human capital, and FDI inflows have been significant sources of CA for the U.S. over both China and India.     

货物贸易与服务贸易:总量互补与差额替代关系

对相关主要国家货物贸易和服务贸易的数据分析表明,服务贸易和货物贸易总量上呈现出互补性特征,但是在各自差额上却呈现明显的替代性。本文研究认为,货物贸易和服务贸易差额的替代性体现了不同国家的比较优势所在。该结论的启示在于,服务部门发展和服务贸易发展是一个渐进的过程,而仅拥有劳动密集型制造业优势的发展中国家将可能长期存在服务贸易逆差。     

金融发展对江苏省工业制成品比较优势和国际贸易结构的影响

在相关研究的基础上,探讨了金融发展与工业制成品比较优势与贸易结构的内在关系。采用VAR模型与Johanson协整检验,脉冲响应、方差分解,以江苏省数据为例,实证检验了江苏省金融发展的三种不同指标与工业制成品比较优势及江苏省贸易结构的关系,检验结果表明金融发展与工业制成品比较优势存在协整关系;在短期内,金融发展对贸易结构的优化贡献度较小,金融中介的投资储蓄转化率对工业制成品比较优势的影响最大,并在此基础上,根据实证结论提出相应的政策建议。     

技术进步与我国出口贸易模式演进

文章应用我国1980-2006年相关数据,采用协整检验和Granger因果关系检验方法,对技术进步、资本积累、FDI与出口商品结构之间的关系进行了分析.结果表明,四者之间存在协整关系,技术进步与我国对外贸易模式之间存在着互为因果的双向联系.