Business cycle accounting for the Japanese economy

We conducted business cycle accounting (BCA) using the method developed by Chari, Kehoe, and McGrattan (Chari, V.V., P.J. Kehoe, E.R. McGrattan, 2002a. Accounting for the Great Depression. Am. Econ. Rev. 92 (2), 22–27) on data from the 1980s to 1990s in Japan and from the interwar period in Japan and the United States. The contribution of this paper is two-fold. First, we find that labor wedges may have been a major contributor to the decade-long recession in the 1990s in Japan. Assuming exogenous variations in the share of labor, we find that the deterioration in the labor wedge started around 1990, which coincides with the onset of the recession. Second, we performed an alternative BCA exercise using the capital wedge instead of the investment wedge to check the robustness of BCA implications for financial frictions. The accounting results with the capital wedge imply that financial frictions may have had a large depressive effect during the 1930s in the United States. This implication is the opposite of that from the original BCA findings.     

Stature decline and recovery in a food-rich export economy: Argentina 1900-1934

Using height data for recruits of a principal regiment at Buenos Aires, the paper revises the question of welfare in Argentina during the period 1900-1934. The period of rapid export-led growth (1900-1913) showed an absolute deterioration of “net nutrition.” On the other hand, the inter-war period (1918-1939), generally characterized as a period of economic “delay” or “retardation,” presented a steady improvement in nutrition and health conditions. Two powerful external shocks, World War I and the Great Depression, had a minimal impact on the biological welfare of Argentine recruits. Economic growth generated important regional and social inequalities.     

Great Moderation in the Japanese economy

This paper investigates the contribution of technology and nontechnology shocks to the changing volatility of output and labor growth in the postwar Japanese economy. A time-varying vector autoregression (VAR) with drifting coefficients and stochastic volatilities is modeled and long-run restriction is used to identify technology shocks in line with Galí (1999) and Galí and Gambetti (2009). We find that technology shocks are responsible for significant changes in the output volatility throughout the total sample period while the volatility of labor input is largely attributed to nontechnology shocks. The driving force behind these results is the negative correlation between labor input and productivity, which holds significantly and persistently over the postwar period.     

The Fed’s reaction to the stock market during the great depression: Fact or artefact?

A notable feature of the 1920s and 1930s is the volatility in several key macroeconomic aggregates, and this feature used to econometrically identify the reaction of the Fed to stock market developments. The volatility of economic activity may have contributed to deepening the divisions among policy-makers about how the Fed ought to respond to stock price developments. Relying on the technique of [Rigobon, R. 2003. Identification through heteroskedasticity. Review of Economics and Statistics 85, 777–792], volatility is used as an instrument to estimate the Fed’s response to the stock market. Other identification assumptions based on structural VARs produce compatible results. Fed behavior appeared to have changed following the stock market crash of 1929. Consistent with the Riefler-Burgess doctrine, interest rates and stock returns are negatively related. I conclude that, prior to the stock market crash of 1929, a form of benign neglect explains Fed behavior. Thereafter, the Fed reacts only slightly more aggressively to stock market developments.     

The role and place economy in Plato＇s Republic

In the Republic, education and the economy play very important roles for establishing the ideal city united and ruled by a philosopher, but the significance of the economy is ignored by both philosophers and researchers. In order to achieve his goal, Plato has to answer two questions that how a city is possible and how the ideal city is possible. This paper focuses on how economy factors affect Plato＇s project.     

论不动产物权登记的效力

江苏经济正处在市场化、国际化、信息化和继续工业化的新时期 ,本文针对江苏省的具体实践 ,分析了江苏省存在区域经济发展不平衡、产业结构不够合理等问题 ,进而提出用产业经济支撑江苏区域经济协调发展的几点建议及保障措施。     

创新经济时代下的商业特征描述模型：创新光谱

创新行为已经被历史证明是人类演变和社会进步的重要抓手.身处在由创新行为驱动的经济(创新经济)发展长河中,认清时代下的商业特征将有利于找到发展未来商业的明灯,也同时影响和加速人类对真实世界的认知.通过对全球近十年来近4400篇相关样本文献及其关键词进行统计分析和聚类分析以及对各行业创新领域专家的调研验证,并基于作者在业内从事管理咨询尤其是区域经济产业发展咨询人力资本咨询和全球创新业务实践过程中所积累的多年经验综合得出的.最终发现自2011年以来,创新经济驱动下的商业时代分别在意识形态、战略导向、管理效能、能力要求、环境特点、价值属性、组织构成这7大领域中表现出16条具有时代鲜明特点的商业特征.     

世界经济重心回归亚洲与美国战略重心东移

世界经济重心正在回归亚洲,亚洲已经成为大国竞争的主战场。美国战略重心正在东移;欧洲国家更加重视与亚洲国家发展贸易关系。历史经验教训表明,综合国力强弱乃是大国兴衰并影响其所在地区实力和地位的基础。迄今世界权力和利益重心仍在西方,亚洲成为世界经济重心,实现亚洲伟大复兴任重道远。     

The implications of monetary expansion in China for the US dollar

We examine the influence of rapid growth in China's money supply on the US dollar within a framework of monetary models of exchange rates. We develop out-of-sample forecasts of the US dollar exchange rate using US and global data on price level, output, and interest rates, and money supply data for the US, China, and the rest of the world for the period 1996–2013. Monetary model forecasts significantly outperform a random walk forecast in terms of mean squared forecast error in the long run. A monetary error correction model with sticky prices performs best. Rolling sample analysis indicates changes over time in the influence of Chinese money supply in forecasting the US dollar. The expectation is that rapid money growth in China would increase the demand for dollars thus raising the value of the dollar, yet our forecasts are to the contrary for the mid 2000s. This is consistent with anticipation of renminbi appreciation under China’s managed exchange rate, which made holding renminbi more attractive. With the break from a dollar peg in 2005 and subsequent currency appreciation, the distortion was alleviated and the forecast direction for the dollar became as expected.     

国际经济背景下美元贬值的原因、影响及对策分析

美元贬值主要是由美元与主要经济体货币调整不同步以及方向选择差异而形成。对于不同经济体而言,美元贬值存在着非常分明的正负效应,由此导致了各国政府态度认识上的不同。同时,总体上美元的渐次贬值有利于全球经济走向均衡,但速率过猛的美元贬值却会破坏国际经济的均衡。因此,未来美元的下跌空间会受到限制,“美元危机”只是一个伪命题。     

Comparative study of the inducement of US subprime mortgage crisis and symptom of real estate in China

Since the essence of US subprime mortgage crisis just lies in the bank credit crisis caused by bubbles bursting of real estate market, some questions are really worthy of our deep reflection, such as whether there are bubbles existing in Chinese real estate market, whether there is crisis implied in Chinese real estate industry and financial crisis, as well as the difficulties that Chinese real estate is facing and the extent to which its difficulties might overshadow it. Therefore, based on the comparative study of the inducement of US subprime mortgage crisis and symptom of real estate in China, this paper illustrates the inducement of US subprime mortgage crisis and relevant symptom that Chinese real estate industry is facing, and further dialyzes a series of warnings brought to Chinese real estate.     

试论图书馆智力开发职能与知识经济的关系

本文通过横向比较,说明在智力资源开发上我国与发达国家的差距,指出开发智力资源的重要性,提出图书馆在智力开发中的优势和如何开发读者智力资源问题。     

试析台湾现代经济发展及对福建经济建设的启示

本文分析了台湾现代经济建设５０年的历程,指出台湾经济建设过程中的成功与失败经验,同时分析福建经济建设现状,提出借鉴台湾经济建设成功经验,吸取台湾经济建设的失败教训的几点建议。     

试析台湾现代经济发展及对福建经济建设的启示

本文分析了台湾现代经济建设 5 0年的历程 ,指出台湾经济建设过程中的成功与失败经验 ,同时分析福建经济建设现状 ,提出借鉴台湾经济建设成功经验 ,吸取台湾经济建设的失败教训的几点建议。     

Japan’s return to gold: Turning points in the value of the yen during the 1920s

We identify turning points in the value of the yen during the 1920s to determine which factors were perceived by market participants as affecting Japan’s probability of returning to the gold standard. The 1920s were marked by military expansionism, political turmoil, and other dramatic political and institutional events. We conclude that changes of power between the Kenseikai and Seiyukai parties and worsening diplomatic relations with China were primarily responsible for turning points in the value of the yen. The democracy movement and the associated expansion of suffrage seem not to have been viewed as important by contemporaries.     

Exchange Rates and Economic Recovery in the 1930s: An Extension to Asia

Scholars have found a positive relationship between the magnitude of currency depreciation and the extent of recovery from the Great Depression for Europe and Latin America. The relationship between currency depreciation and economic activity during the Great Depression for Asian economies has not yet been explored. This paper examines this topic using data from 13 Asian economies: China, India, Indonesia, Iran, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, and Vietnam. We find that Asian economies responded in a similar way to currency depreciation during the Great Depression as did European and Latin American countries.     

清洁生产、循环经济与低碳经济:政府行为博弈市场边界

清洁生产、循环经济和低碳经济是改革开放以来政府主导下的将环境保护同经济活动相融合的三大重要制度创新载体,政府行为直接影响了资源环境要素纳入经济活动内部的推进轨迹和发展模式。从宏观历史层面阐述政府层面推动清洁生产、循环经济与低碳经济的发展过程和突出特征,分析体现政府诉求的推动模式和差异性的规制手段,研究表明,政府规制模式框架下制度创新的基本方向。应弱化末端治理,强化末端规制,覆盖政府自身的立法范围以及发展自愿协议。     

The demand for money in a small open economy: The case of Switzerland

The paper uses cointegration analysis to investigate the demand for money in Switzerland in the context of an open economy. It considers the general process of financial asset substitution and tests for the relevance of an exchange rate and a foreign interest rate variable in a conventional money demand equation. The results show that the variables entering into the demand for either monetary base or narrow money equation may not form a cointegrated system unless the exchange rate or foreign interest rate variable is included. This provides support to both the currency substitution and capital mobility hypotheses.     

The role of profit in the soviet economy

Summary The role of profit is firstly a source of financing investment and government consumption and secondly a means of stimulating the producers to act in accordance with the directives of the central plan. As an incentive it cannot be analyzed without considering the other parts of the stimulation system with which it has to form a harmonious whole,i.e. the price system and the calculation system. In successive periods of time the role of profit differed, dependeing on whether the plan was implemented in a direct or in an indirect way. It can be shown that in no period has the stimulation system been consistent.He is indebted to Annegreet van Bergen, Michael Ellman, Pat Ellman, Roy Jonker, Mirjam Nijhof and Roald Ramer for valuable comments.     

The role of the Chinese economy in the world economy: A U.S. perspective

In this paper I first review the amazing progress that free market economic reforms have brought to the Chinese people after years of central control and suppression of markets. Thanks to greater economic freedom, economic growth increased sharply and hundreds of millions of people have been removed from poverty. By all accounts, however, economic freedom in China has a long way to go. The U.S. perspective should be that these market reforms continue. These further reforms toward economic freedom and economic growth in China will be beneficial to the United States. Such reforms would include a greater transparency about the monetary policy strategies, more openness of the capital accounts and less exchange rate and stock market intervention. Such economic reforms should be welcomed and encouraged by the United States and other countries.