EXPLAINING THE GROWTH OF GOVERNMENT SPENDING IN SOUTH AFRICA

What determines government spending in South Africa? The paper estimates the determinants of real per capita government spending in the Republic of South Africa using annual data for the period 1960‐2007, a tumultuous period during which South Africa experienced a variety of internally imposed changes (e.g. the abolition of apartheid, changes in political institutions) and externally generated shocks (e.g. war, oil shocks). Using multivariate cointegration techniques, we find that per capita government spending, per capita income, the tax share and the wage rate are cointegrated, a result that supports the notion that government spending is associated not only with per capita income and the true cost of government service provision as given by the wage rate but also with the fiscal illusion caused by budget deficits. We also find evidence that per capita government spending was positively affected by external shocks. These external shocks seem to play a significant role in explaining the dynamics of government spending growth.     

HOW EXPOSED IS THE SOUTH AFRICAN ECONOMY TO INTERNATIONAL TRADE?

Following the policies implemented during the 1990s, the South African economy has become more globalised. This is particularly the case as far as international trade is concerned. The implementation of trade reforms, in some cases faster than WTO commitments, has increased the exposure of the South African economy to international trade. Trade in intermediate inputs increases the external orientation of an industry and hence increases the economy's exposure to trade. This in effect means that the economy is more open to external trade shocks than is conveyed by the traditional openness measure which considers only the trade in final products. This paper uses a measure proposed by Campa and Goldberg (1997) to estimate the exposure to trade and finds that around 79 per cent of output in 2000 was accounted for by industries that became more exposed to international trade. Further, domestic production has become more reliant on imported inputs with around 60 per cent of South Africa's GDP being accounted for by industries with a negative external orientation (i.e. industries where imported input costs exceeded export revenue). In addition, it was also found that those sectors that became more externally oriented had lower inflation rates and higher growth rates than the other sectors in the economy for the period under analysis. The extent to which the increased exposure to international trade facilitated these developments remains topical for further research.     

Productivity,Preferences and UIP Deviations in an Open Economy Business Cycle Model

We show that a flex-price two-sector open economy DSGE model can explain the poor degree of international risk sharing and exchange rate disconnect. We use a suite of model evaluation measures and examine the role of (1) traded and non-traded sectors; (2) financial market incompleteness; (3) preference shocks; (4) deviations from UIP condition for the exchange rates; and (5) creditor status in net foreign assets. We find that there is a good case for both traded and non-traded productivity shocks as well as UIP deviations in explaining the puzzles.     

THE ROLE OF THE EXCHANGE RATE IN A NEW KEYNESIAN DSGE MODEL FOR THE SOUTH AFRICAN ECONOMY

We build a small open economy New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for South Africa similar to Steinbach et al. We abandon their assumption of complete risk sharing with the foreign economy, and introduce country risk shocks to allow deviations from uncovered interest rate parity. These changes allow us to include the exchange rate as an observable variable in the estimation of the model. Using forecast error variance decompositions and historical decompositions, we show that country risk shocks have sizable effects on the South African business cycle. We also explore the optimal monetary policy implications of our model within the context of Taylor rules.     

Livestock as a buffer against HIV and AIDS income shocks in the rural households of Zimbabwe

The objective of this study was to determine the extent to which households use livestock sales to mitigate the impact of HIV/AIDS income shocks. Using survey data from the Muzarabani and Bindura districts of Mashonaland Central Province in Zimbabwe, the econometric analysis indicated that livestock, particularly poultry and small stock, play a significant role in smoothing income fluctuations due to HIV/AIDS. Cattle sales compensate for 71 per cent of income shortfalls due to HIV/AIDS. About 90 per cent of HIV/AIDS-afflicted households, headed mainly by women or children, used poultry and goats as consumption-smoothing strategies when faced with negative income shocks. Government and other stakeholders were advised to support the use of small stock as a strategy for coping with HIV/AIDS economic shock in female- or child-headed households in rural areas.     

The decline of US manufacturing productivity between 1941 and 1948

The view that war benefits potential output has been influential in treatments of US mobilization for the Second World War, where it has been largely premised on the benefits of learning by doing in producing military durables. If the thesis that war benefits aggregate supply is correct, it is indeed within manufacturing that we should most likely see its effects. Total factor productivity within the sector in fact fell at a rate of −1.4 per cent per year between 1941 and 1948, −3.7 per cent a year between 1941 and 1944, and −5.1 per cent a year between 1941 and 1945. The emphasis on learning by doing has obscured the negative effects of the sudden, radical, and temporary changes in the product mix, the behavioural pathologies accompanying the transition to a shortage economy, and the resource shocks inflicted on the country by the Japanese and Germans. From a long-run perspective, the war can be seen, ironically, as the beginning of the end of US world economic dominance in manufacturing.     

Some Reflections on U.S. Treaty Commitments

Abstract

The world oil price has risen significantly since the late 1990s and reached a record high in 2008. The recent oil price hike raises concerns regarding the possible negative effects of the rising oil price on the economy as in the 1970s. We investigate the effects of the oil price hike on the Korean economy using a Bayesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DGSE) model. We explicitly model the small open economy nature of the Korean economy and its oil usage and estimate the constructed model within a unified Bayesian framework. We also examine possible changes in the effects of world oil shocks on the Korean economy using counterfactual simulations. We find the adverse effects of world oil shocks as well as their importance in Korean business cycles have diminished due to reductions in the relative usage of crude oil in the economy, while world oil shocks themselves have changed relatively little over time.     

Informal retailing through home-based micro-enterprises: The role of spaza shops

The informal trade sector constitutes an important part of the South African economy, with estimated sales of R32 billion in 2002. Its emergence is largely attributed to the divergence between the growth in population, especially the urban population, and employment growth in the formal economy. Growth of informal enterprises, especially in the retail sector, is also thriving on the demand of less affluent households, whose household needs for unsophisticated and affordable products are aptly supplied by the informal sector. The aim of this article is to focus on one of the prominent sub-sectors of informal retailing, namely spaza or tuck shops, defined as small retail businesses which operate from a residential stand or home. Particular attention is paid to the size, role and characteristics of spaza trade in South Africa, which is estimated to account for nearly 3 per cent of South Africa's retail trade.     

Do Firms Time Their Pollution Abatement Investments Optimally?

In this paper we develop an equilibrium business-cycle model for an economy with both clean and dirty (polluting) plants. We conclude that the best time to implement cleaner production technologies is during a slowdown of the economy. Due to external effects and market failures the timing of pollution abatement investments is not expected to be optimal in the real world. We test the optimality of the timing of those investments with data for Germany, the Netherlands, and the USA. It appears that for more than 25 per cent of the sectors pollution abatement investments show significant counter-cyclical behaviour, while in 10 per cent of the sectors these investments are pro-cyclical.     

Hong Kong's growth synchronization with China and the US: A trend and cycle analysis

This paper investigates the synchronization of Hong Kong's economic growth with mainland China and the US. We identify trends of economic growth based on the permanent income hypothesis. Specifically, we first confirm whether real consumption in Hong Kong and mainland China satisfies the permanent income hypothesis, at least in a weak form. We then identify the permanent and transitory components of income of each economy using a simple state-space model. We use structural vector autoregression models to analyze how permanent and transitory shocks originating from mainland China and the US affect the Hong Kong economy, and how such influences evolve over time. Our main findings suggest that transitory shocks from the US remain a major driving force behind Hong Kong's business cycle fluctuations. On the other hand, permanent shocks from mainland China have a larger impact on Hong Kong's trend growth.     

Pestilence,poverty, and provision: re‐evaluating the role of the popolani in early modern Venice

The labouring classes of early modern Venice, the popolani, made up nearly 90 per cent of the city's population. To this point the relevant historiography has focused almost exclusively on their professional and civic role. It is the core contention of this article that the contribution of the popolani to the Venetian economy and society far exceeded their documented professional and civic function. Using as a case study the homogeneous group of the shipbuilders and sailors of Venice and drawing on newly discovered primary sources from the Venetian State Archives, this article shows the distinct contributions of the popolani to the city's economy and society through their charity to those in need. This took the form of sizeable dotal and charitable donations within and beyond the family. In one of the first attempts to explore the philanthropy of the Venetian workforce, this article challenges the existing scholarly view that charity was the sole responsibility of the government and the nobility in early modern Venice. It further shows that marriage was not merely a financial union for the popolani; it was a sanctuary for lasting companionship. Ultimately, the article offers a fresh vista onto the socio‐economic role of the popolani in early modern Venice.     

‘Voice’ and ‘exit’ in Japanese firms during the Second World War: Sanpo revisited*

During the Second World War, the Japanese government and private sector searched for and implemented new mechanisms for coordination and motivation. One of these was sangyo hokokukai (sanpo). The Sanpo unit was basically an organization of the employer and employees of each firm, which held meetings to moderate labour relations. As a result of government policy to promote sanpo units, around 70 per cent of the total workers in Japan were organized into sanpo units in the early 1940s. As the members of trades unions and the workers of the companies that had factory committees were only 7 per cent and 5 per cent of the total workers in 1936 respectively, sanpo was the first large‐scale mechanism for Japanese employees to have a voice. This article examines the role of sanpo, using prefecture‐level and firm‐level data, based on a framework integrating the ‘voice view’ of unionism and transaction cost economics. It was found that sanpo reduced the participation rate in labour disputes, and enhanced labour productivity at least for some of the time.     

The Location of Manufacturing Exporters in Africa: Empirical Evidence

Abstract: The costs of accessing and using a port/export hub should be high on the list of priorities for export promotion agencies in Africa. This conclusion emanates from this paper focusing on the geographical location of manufacturing export industries in South Africa. Here manufacturing export firms tend to be spatially concentrated with about 84 per cent of total manufacturing exports produced in only 6 per cent of magisterial districts. Distance from an export hub is negatively related to the density of manufactured exports. The largest volumes of manufactured exports are generated within 100 km of an export hub. For electronics, about 98 per cent of manufacturing takes place within 100 km of an export hub. Comparison over time showed that the number of locations from which manufacturing exports occur increased by 15 per cent over 1996–2004 and that manufacturing exports increased in the band between 200 and 400 km from the nearest hub.     

UK shocks and Irish business cycles, 1922–79

This article examines the transmission of UK and global shocks to the Irish economy over the period 1922–79, using annual data for consumer prices and real GDP in a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model. UK aggregate demand and supply shocks have large and significant effects on Irish CPI, but smaller effects on Irish real GDP. A historical decomposition indicates that UK aggregate supply and demand shocks played a more important role than domestic shocks in the evolution of Irish CPI. In contrast, the evolution of Irish real GDP is driven more by idiosyncratic domestic shocks than by UK shocks.     

Deflationary shocks and monetary rules: An open-economy scenario analysis

The paper considers the macroeconomic transmission of demand and supply shocks in an open economy under alternative assumptions on whether the zero interest floor (ZIF) is binding. It uses a two-country general-equilibrium simulation model calibrated to the Japanese economy vis-à-vis the rest of the world. Negative demand shocks have more prolonged and startling effects on the economy when the ZIF is binding than when it is not binding. Positive supply shocks can actually extend the period of time over which the ZIF may be expected to bind. More open economies hit the ZIF for a shorter period of time, and with less harmful effects. Deflationary supply shocks have different implications according to whether they are concentrated in the tradables rather than the nontradables sector. Price-level-path targeting rules are likely to provide better guidelines for monetary policy in a deflationary environment, and have desirable properties in normal times when the ZIF is not binding. J. Japanese Int. Economies 20 (4) (2006) 665–698.     

The case for price level or inflation targeting—What happened to monetary policy effectiveness during the Japanese disinflation?

This paper examines whether price level or inflation targeting would have been appropriate policy choices for Japan during its disinflation and deflation period. We employ Markov switching and structural vector autoregressions, together with structural IS equations, to investigate monetary policy effectiveness during the Japanese disinflation. We find evidence of regime switching in the mid-1990s in a model including the nominal policy interest rate. When monetary policy shocks are identified by using the McCallum rule for monetary base, a monetary expansion is found to have a statistically significant impact on prices. Moreover, a lower real ex ante interest rate can still stimulate the economy despite the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates.     

SYNCHRONISATION BETWEEN SOUTH AFRICA AND THE U.S.: A STRUCTURAL DYNAMIC FACTOR ANALYSIS

This paper studies the synchronisation of the South African and the US cycles and transmission channels through which supply and demand shocks from the US affect economic activity in South Africa in a structural dynamic factor model framework. We find, using the full-sample period, US supply shocks are transmitted to South Africa through business confidence and imports of goods and services; while US demand shocks are transmitted via interest rates, stock prices, exports of goods and services, and real effective exchange rates. Second, there is a decrease in integration over time translated by a drop in synchronisation of cycles. The impact of an increase in comovement of GDP is outweighed by the structural reforms initiated by the government after the end of apartheid. Finally, the idiosyncratic component still plays an important role in the South African economy.     

MODELLING INFLATION IN SOUTH AFRICA: A MULTIVARIATE COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS

We employ an expectations augmented Phillips curve framework to investigate the link between inflation, unit labour costs, the output gap, the real exchange rate and inflation expectations. Using multivariate cointegration techniques, we find evidence consistent with mark‐up behaviour of output prices over unit labour costs. Most importantly, we find that the mark‐up in the South African economy is much higher than in the U.S. For South Africa we find a markup of about 30 per cent: three times as high as the 10 per cent markup found for the U.S.     

Openness and the Effects of Fiscal and Monetary Policy Shocks on Real Output in Nigeria (1960–2003)*

Abstract: This study investigates the effects of monetary and fiscal policies on the real output growth in a small open economy. It is a country‐specific, time series study that verifies the implication of increasing economic openness on the efficacy of monetary and fiscal policy. A modified GARCH model was used to estimate the anticipated and unanticipated shocks. Two measures of fiscal and monetary shocks were combined with openness and real oil price shocks in a VECM model to assess the effects of anticipated and unanticipated policy shocks on the output equations. The empirical results showed that anticipated and unanticipated fiscal and monetary shocks had no significant positive effects on real output. This suggests that the open macroeconomic version of the policy ineffectiveness proposition was valid for both monetary and fiscal policy shocks in Nigeria. This is in consonance with earlier works in this area. Furthermore, the degree of openness and oil price shocks had a negative implication on the efficacy of macroeconomic policy in Nigeria; also in agreement with the Dutch Disease Syndrome. Finally, the policy implication of this study therefore is that trade liberalization policy should be implemented cautiously. The Nigerian economy is weak to withstand the unwholesome consequences of full economic integration.     

Productivity, efficiency, scale economies and technical change: A new decomposition analysis of TFP applied to the Japanese prefectures

This paper aims to examine the productivity change of the Japanese economy using the data pertaining to the 47 prefectures during the period 1981–2000. The decomposition analysis of the Hicks–Moorsteen–Bjurek productivity index is conducted to explore the sources of the productivity change. In summary, technical change and efficiency change are two of the most important components driving procyclical productivity. We find that relative their importance varies over periods. Supply shocks captured by technical change component caused upturns in productivity in the mid and late 1980s and in 1999 and 2000. Supply shocks also caused downturns in the early and mid 1990s. On the other hand, demand shocks captured by efficiency change component drove upturns of productivity in 1984, 1990 and 1996, when supply shocks were not detected. J. Japanese Int. Economies 19 (4) (2005) 617–634.